jorgenswest

I would have preferred to spend 9.25 for one year of Baker than 10 for two of Correia.

Two years? He will have to be awful for the Twins to give someone else his spot in the rotation. Meanwhile, they are delaying finding the longer term solution. I would prefer giving Hendriks and Gibson an extended shot this year. And sign someone like Lannon or Jurrjens. Best case, his ERA and peripherals look good enough to flip for a prospect in July. Second best, he is awful and the Twins send him the way of a Jason Marquis. Worst case, he is mediocre and unwanted in any trade but not awful enough for the Twins to give the ball to someone else. In 2014, he takes starts a way from a young pitcher. Though I am sure his agent was saying otherwise, I doubt any other team was offering the second year.

A mistake if it is more than one year.

On waiting until super 2 passes... The new CBA changed the threshold and the date will be later than June 1. Mid market teams like the Twins should not concern themselves with a player getting to arbitration a year early. If they perform to the point where they become expensive. Be thankful and pay them. The Twins can afford it. On calling him up too early... Yes, he will struggle. If he doesn't have the character and confidence to handle it and improve, he will never be a long term major league starter no matter how long they wait. This isn't like bringing up a kid right out of the draft. If Benson's poor performance last year was related to struggles in his brief September call up, he will never make it in the major leagues. I don't believe they were related.

Far better option than the recently rumored Correia. I do have to wonder why he is looking for his 8th organization by age 29.

He is going to be 33. He has never had positive defensive metrics at 2B. He isn't a good outfielder with the glove or the bat. They need to put forward the best possible middle infield defense. Worst case is the Twins play him at 2b and Carroll at SS this year and have no answers about Florimon, Dozier or Escobar moving into 2014. I don't see how this would fit any Ryan blueprint unless his plan is to offer a historically poor defensive team.

I think Escobar will have a longer major league career than Florimon. He is the one with the real defensive reputation as a minor leaguer. Dozier hasn't had near enough plate appearances to write him off. Burnett is still young enough. He opened in A-ball in 2009 and was in the majors at 22 in 2010. There is still a reasonable chance that he will be a useful set up man. Teams need to have more patience with guys like Escobar and Burnett who get pushed at an early age through the minors to the majors. The Twins can afford to be patient this year.

I wouldn't sign him to two years. No multiyear contracts to decline phase players.

No list, but take a look at the 1982 Twins. I believe Hrbek, Eisenreich and Wynegar jumped from A ball. Gaetti, Havens, Castino, Laudner and Johnson from AA. Brunansky and Viola had a small stint in AAA. Viola was drafted the year before. Redfern was on the team and he may have went from the draft to the big leagues.

There is no way to replace Mauer. The Twins have no catchers in the system that look like major league starters. If they want to deal him, they should pick up significant salary to get better prospects in return. They have to be blown away with three very good prospects. They absolutely need to get a very good catching prospect and starting pitching prospect. Optimally, the third guy is a shortstop. I don't know if Boston or anyone can offer that return. They will also need to find or sign a starting catcher for 2013.

What's your blueprint now? Good news thus far this winter: Entering 2012 the Twins farm system was in the bottom 10 of major league teams. The farm system is now in the top 10. The Twins have added two very hard to acquire power arms to their stable. They added a young starter that can be counted on to help this year and down the road. Step one of Terry's blueprint looks to be rebuild the system. Mission accomplished What still needs to be addressed... There are at most 4 guys that can even remotely be projected to be in the rotation both this year and in the future. (Worley, Diamond, Gibson and Hendriks). The defense may be the worst in team history. Mastroianni will probably be below league average in CF. He did not come into baseball as a CF. The Blue Jays started him at 2B, moved him to CF and played him in LF when they had a better CF option in the minors. It is hard to find scouting reports because he wasn't a prospect. The Minor League Baseball Analyst liked his work ethic and make up but said both his arm and instincts came up short. Together, Parmelee and Willingham will be well below league average at the corners. Our young pitching staff deserves better. The infield defense may not be much better. Scouting reports on Florimon spoke of flash and inconsistency. Escobar's reports are better, but his bat is weaker if that is possible. Plouffe will get better with more time at 3B. Catching? Overall it was below average last year and hasn't changed. Another concern... key offensive players are in their decline phase. What next? I would trade the veterans. The off season is the perfect time to trade a guy like Morneau and send cash to pay a significant part of his salary. Budget lines are much tighter in the offseason. There are teams that still need a bat and don't have the budget space. The Twins can make it work for them with the right offer. Willingham could be dealt in this fashion also. Fix the defense by playing Hicks or Benson in CF and Arcia in RF. Select a SS by glove first. Yes, the arbitration clock will start one year earlier. The Twins are not a small market team, they can afford to pay them when their time comes. Worst case is that they will be so good that they will be able to demand millions in arbitration. The Twins should hope for such misery. Sign a starter like Jurrjens or Lannon and see if they can right their career. The Twins should be a good fit for them. Wait out the free agent market and sign a veteran starter to a one year deal that can be flipped midseason. Play young guys who can defend and let their bats struggle. Defense first when choosing a SS and back up catcher. The Twins do need to assess if Butera is really an elite defender. Metrics suggest otherwise. Earlier the argument was that the Twins couldn't rebuild for the future because they had no arms in the system. That can't be argued any longer. This could be a historically bad season for losses. It also could be the first step towards Minnesota's 4th successful run of good seasons.

Revere doesn't bring Meyer. The Twins needed that front line pitching prospect. May has upside but there is also a good chance that he will never command his stuff well enough to find success.

We just purchased his 33 year old season for 3.25 million. We already owned his age 32 season. I wrote about the possibility of an extension earlier in the off season http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968-Burton-What-s-is-the-Future-for-a-31-Year-Old-Set-Up-Man Looking at 31 year old right handed set up men from 2000-2010, there was a significant drop off in performance from age 31 to age 33. To summarize, I searched for every season pitched by a 31 year old set up man from 2000-2010. I sought pitchers with a workload of at least 60 games. I eliminated closers as they have a different work load. I eliminated guys with ERAs over 4 as most were on their way out of baseball. I found 28 pitchers. I eliminated pitchers jailed for attempted murder in their home country and was down to 27. At age 33, 7 of the 27 pitched 60 games with an ERA under 4. Add one guy who became a starter to make 8 effective pitchers. Eight effective pitchers at age 33 from a group of 27 effective pitchers at age 31. It seems like the Twins are on the wrong side of the odds with this contract.

I wouldn't want him in a multiyear. Signing him to a one year and flipping him in July would be OK.

Signing no one is preferable to signing a decline phase pitcher to a multiyear contract. It is not the year to sign a Guthrie to a multiyear. They can offer opportunity. They are a perfect fit for an guy like Jurrjens. Last year they brought in a bunch of relievers and ended up with Burton. This year they need to bring in the starters.

The problem with competition and a back up 3b is it really doesn't work with the Twins roster. At some point early enough in the season the Twins will have a need for a 13th pitcher. That leaves the starting lineup and three bench spots. Those three spots need to be someone who can catch, someone who can defend in the middle infield and someone who can defend in center field. Last year, both Hughes and Burroughs were forced off the bench when they couldn't fill any of those roles. They were not a loss of any significance, but it points out the challenge of roster building with the current era of large bullpens. Hanahan can't fit any of those bench roles. I guess you could argue Plouffe can be the back up middle infielder. Is that realistic? You could argue that Doumit could be DH and back up catcher. You saw how long that lasted in 2012. The Twins don't have the luxury of a corner guy that can move to CF so they need a true 4th outfielder. Unless they also plan to change past practice of going to a 13 man staff when guys are day to day or the bullpen is overused, they won't be able to commit a year long roster spot to a back up 3B. At some point it will come down to DFA Plouffe or his competition. There is another solution. Never have a 13 man staff. When a pitcher is day to day, DL him immediately. That doesn't sound like the Twins management to me. On the other hand, if they sign Hanahan and later DFA him it really isn't any more significant a loss than Burroughs or Hughes. Pay him enough money and they can stash him in AAA when no one claims him.

Looking for thoughts from Seth and others heading into Thursday's draft... Who are the best Twin prospects not protected? Is Adrian Salcedo unprotected? Might a team take him and put him in a 12th man mop up role for the year?

It would seem there are some simple things Doumit could do to improve. Most sensible comment in the discussion. If it is a skill, it can be improved. The Twins have access to all of the video and corresponding data. It probably is available sorted by call, pitch type, location... Do it for all of the catchers. If the Twins do the leg work on this, there is no reason it can't improve as long as there is awareness.

Because when you claim outlandish things, people tend to treat them outlandishly. The underlying point has merit; good catchers positively impact a pitching staff. But when you come at us with "a good catcher is worth nearly one run a game compared to the worst", you're going to get laughed out of the room. And for good reason. It's an absurd statement. Would you want the Twins management and share your attitude? My hope us that the study (not mine) will lead them to go through the data. They can take the same approach. They have the capability to look at every pitch that Doumit, Butera and Mauer received with pitch f/x. I hope they did that before signing Doumit and extending him. All of the new game data available in the last several years will lead to new understanding of the impact of defense on winning baseball games. My hope is that the Twins are not behind the curve.

I think this is an article about counts and impact on runs http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/12/506919/a-nibble-here-a-nibble-the

The author earned a job in major league baseball. One year later catchers who did well or poorly, still do well or poorly. Do you want the Twins to continue to ignore the data? Do you think the Rays are paying attention? It appears that many would join the Twins in discounting this study. It is my hope that the Twins have someone or a group they have hired in the front office responsible for seeking out these studies and evaluating the impact on the team. Minimally this work deserves lengthy study on the part of the Twins management.

This isn't catcher ERA.

Does it matter if he gets the call because of skill or reputation? He still gets the call. Watching the videos in the study, I think it is more skill than reputation. Why didn't Jaso do well with that pitching staff in 2011?

It is hard to believe.How can it make that much difference? Based on their decision making, I don't think the Twins believe it. I at least hope they were aware and considered it last fall before signing Doumit. Here is what strikes me about the data that is difficult to dismiss. Why do the same catchers to consistently well or poorly year to year? It doesn't even matter if they change teams. If it is pitching based and not catching based, why do catchers on the same team vary? It comes down to two elements. Is the pitch f/x reliable enough to determine when a close ball is turned into a strike or a strike on the edge into a ball? Is Dan Turpenkopf's work finding that switching the call from a ball to a strike on a close pitch was worth about 0.13 runs on average accurate? http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/12/506919/a-nibble-here-a-nibble-the One last link, below is the spreadsheet from 2011. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmezwgYbFov9dDNZTm1rMVJvSjNaMXNwUXI0d3VvRXc&hl=en_US#gid=0 A year ago at the time of the Doumit signing Aaron Gleeman referenced the Mike Fast work. I put it away and came back to it when I saw that in spite of both catchers changing teams in 2012, Jose Molina and Ryan Doumit retained their spots at top and bottom of the list. Is it time for Doumit to have a role as and pinch hitter while being the emergency third catcher? I think most of us will ignore the work. Do we want the Twins to ignore it? I hope they haven't.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?1215-Doumit-Molina-and-Pitch-f-x