Jump to content
Our top free agent ranking is up to 75 names; click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Guthrie is 33. It would an error to look at his last two years and think the next two years project similarly. His k-rate has no room to decline. As for innings eater, is there a way to predict who will be a future inning eater? Is it an ability that can be projected at 33?
  2. jorgenswest
    I don't think there are many comps of trading an outfielder for a starting pitcher unless the outfielder is relatively better at his position or a starting pitching prospect is included. Lots of teams lost a starting pitcher to free agency and are in the market for a pitcher. I fear they will have the prospects and depth to top the Twins offer of Span.
  3. jorgenswest
    I agree. The price may be too high and the Twins need to look longer term. It is tough to buy starting pitching through trades or free agency. Pitching is the most valuable currency. The A's traded several starting pitchers over the years and each time sought young pitching in return. You usually need pitching to get pitching.
  4. jorgenswest
    Many teams should be interested in Shields. The Rays will get a good return. The Royals are looking for pitching. If they get involved, they have the talent to offer a bat and a pitching prospect. If the Rays are also looking for a pitching prospect with the major league bat, the Twins may not be a good match for them.
  5. jorgenswest
    In their current condition, the Twins can be an appealing place for marginal players to come and get a chance to play. How many places could Doumit and Carroll have gone last year and get as much playing time. I don't think anyone else was offering at starting SS opportunity. Doumit needed to go somewhere to DH. No one would want his defense as a primary catcher. Minnesota was a good fit. How many teams do you think offered Willingham the third year? With his injury history and poor defense, it is hard to project that he would be a plus LF for three years. In this case, the Twins may have "overpaid" in years. Free agent pitchers will see an opportunity in Minnesota to get plenty of opportunities to start. There is an opportunity to sign a guy like Bedard looking to turn around a career to a one year deal. How do the sign a guy like Sanchez who can join almost any rotation? Why would he choose the Twins if the money is the same? I don't think anyone can objectively state that the Minnesota outlook for 2013, their defense, their coaching staff, their medical staff or local endorsement opportunities will trump other offers. The only way is to stand out is to offer more money or an additional year. Basic market dynamics.
  6. jorgenswest
    Twins have had a decent run of sucess with 2nd round picks, believe it or not. From 01-09 Baker, Benson, Crain, Slowey and Swarzak all made at least an appearance in the majors, the Twins traded 3 other 2nd rounders (Bullock, Tyler and Landergraf) for Mlers Diamond, Cabrera and Casilla. Looking at the list of QO that Seth posted, I don't think we'll lose a 2nd rounder. Obviously, I'd get rid of one for Hamilton but the Twins aren't signing him. Of 56 picks, 6 have a career WAR over 10. Most recent picks still have a lot of time to get there. Based on Twins picks, I would think it is less than a 25% chance that a second round pick will make a significant contribution. Complete list at http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=MIN&draft_round=2&draft_type=junreg&
  7. jorgenswest
    Would the cost of 1 WAR on the open market be greater than the value attributed by fangraphs when assessing player value?
  8. jorgenswest
    Does purchasing 1 win equate to a player performing at 1 WAR? If so, the Twins have made a huge mistake not picking up Baker's option. In order to get market value performance from Baker, he would have to perform at little better than 1 WAR to meet that level. He can do that in a half season. Maybe his arm and health have not progressed and he can't be expected to pitch well for even a half season.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would invest one more year in Plouffe. The reward of finding a contributing player with several years of team control is worth the risk that they will struggle in their first 1000 plate appearances. The Twins already have an aging offense. Signing decline phase players like many suggested in this thread will only add to the cycle of mediocrity.
  10. jorgenswest
    I wouldn't call 13 million nothing. I'd rather pay Baker 9.25 million than pay Santana 13 million while giving up a C prospect. Santana has to be ecstatic. There is no way he gets that contract as a free agent.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don't see a platoon possibility as long as the Twins need to carry a large pitching staff. It will come down to a choice between Plouffe and the competition. Valencia lost on that choice last year. It is so difficult to platoon in the current era. Instead of 10-11 pitchers, teams carry 12-13. The cost is the roster spots for platoon players. On the bench sits a reserve middle infielder with a good glove at SS, catcher and 4th outfielder that can play CF. They are almost always defensively oriented with positional flexibility. That leaves at most one other spot for a bat assuming everyone is healthy and no one is day to day. In previous eras it was common to see a platoon at 3b, 2b or corner OF. The Twins had a 3b platoon on the 1991 team. With current roster construction, platoons can't happen. It isn't just Gardenhire who doesn't platoon. My personal opinion is that a platoon has more potential value than a LOOGY. There must be a way to measure the value of a LOOGY and potential value of a platoon. At some point, a team is going to figure out how to utilize their bullpen and reduce the number of pitchers on the roster. That team will also benefit from a bench with real options.
  12. jorgenswest
    Colby Lewis got a 1 year deal for $2 million with up to an additional $4 million in incentives. That's about the same range I expect for Baker. I just hope they add a second year option. The Rangers take on the risk that Lewis will not pitch until after the all star break and possibly much later. Even then, it may take some time to get back to speed and he may be on reduced pitch counts. Baker is much further along on the recovery path.
  13. jorgenswest
    They can guarantee his return by picking up the option. At one year, I would pay the premium to guarantee he is on the roster. I would not count on his public comments that he would like to return as a sign that the Twins can get him at a bargain price. My guess is his agent will push for him to go elsewhere once the option is declined. It is very rare for a player to have an option declined and then return to the same team at a bargain rate.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender. He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.
  15. jorgenswest
    John Sickels has a preview of comments on these two at his site. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/21/3531192/baxendale-and-berrios-two-intriguing-twins-pitchers-from-the-2012 Sounds encouraging.
  16. jorgenswest
    The payroll this year ranked about where you expect to find a midmarket team. Payroll is also a difficult target. Is 94 million the final number for this year? Did it include Nishioka, Marquis ( who I think we paid over a full season, Zumaya, Baker and Liriano savings. Shouldn't it include any buyouts (Nathan?)? Those must be accounted for somewhere. How does the increased money spent on higher draft picks fit in? If we cared, we should really seek the amount of money put back in the organization. How do we rank in money spent developing prospects? The medical staff? Scouting? Front office? I am all for dropping payroll and going younger next year if it means that money saved could be spent wisely developing our farm system, getting the best scouts and monitoring the health of our players.
  17. jorgenswest
    We already have an aging offense. We need to develop younger players who will be part of the next playoff team. Adding more guys in their 30s adds to the cycle of mediocrity.
  18. jorgenswest
    At the time of the signing, Carroll was an old SS. What other offers did he have to start? Where did I suggest he took less than market? It would be an easier argument to say the Twins overpaid. Last year's handbook probably had him listed for less. I believe he came to the Twins because they had more playing time to offer than he could get anywhere else. At the time of the signing, Doumit was an injured catcher with a very poor defensive reputation. He needed a spot where he could get his bat in the game. Where else would he get more DH time? My point was that the Twins can sign those types to reasonable (not under market!) contracts because they won't have a lot of options. How many teams do you think offered Willingham three years? The Twins had better studied projections and mathematics about how similar players have aged into their 30s. They can continue the cycle of mediocrity and bring in these decline phase free agents. They can also go after free agents that might actually make a difference. Doing so they will compete with other organizations. How do they win the negotiation? Will simply matching the offer made by the Yankees, Rangers... be enough?
  19. jorgenswest
    Why would Jackson sign with the Twins? He will have good offers from more attractive organizations. The only way I see it is by giving him that extra year than he can get elsewhere. If someone offers 3, should the Twins offer 4?
  20. jorgenswest
    What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll. I hope you are right about Willingham, but it is a little early to know that he will continue to be productive for two more years. Look at his drop the over the final two months with an OPS in the 750s. Look at his defense. There is no guarantee that we will look back at this contract two years from now and say that it was a reasonable deal As for Carroll, how many other starting shortstop offers do you think came his way? Most teams believe Doumit has little defensive ability some needed to find a DH job. How many offers do you think he was juggling? If it is your argument that the Twins can sign players that few other teams want to reasonable contracts, we agree.
  21. jorgenswest
    What evidence is there that this is the case? The Twins signed Willlingham at a reasonable price, Doumit too. Maybe Carroll. I think there is plenty of evidence that the more attractive organizations more successfully sign free agents. Why sign with the Twins? Their record over the last two years? The coaching staff? The medical staff? Endorsement opportunities? Be realistic. The only way for the Twins to separate themselves is to offer more money or more years. That should be reflected in your blue prints.
  22. jorgenswest
    These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year. Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.
  23. jorgenswest
    I believe that the Twins will have to overpay to persuade free agents pitching to sign with them. If you tend to agree, that somehow must be reflected in your handbook. Unless the Twins plan to wait out the market and sign a few leftovers, they will need to do better than match competing offers.
  24. jorgenswest
    Great book last year. A suggestion... Last year you did a reasonable job projecting contracts. However, I think you need to do a little more work considering what it might take for a player to sign with the Twins. Unless you believe that the Twins are an equally attractive place to sign a contract, your blue prints should reflect the premium the Twins might have to pay to persuade a free agent to join the organization.
  25. jorgenswest
    Not much pitching.
×
×
  • Create New...