jorgenswest

Pierre is a good comp. He has been traded a few times. After 2005, he was traded for Ricky Nolasco and Sergio Mitre. Both were prospects at the time. Nolasco was a B prospect and in the Cubs top 10. It can happen which sets our expectations, but the trade environment for starting pitching appears much more difficult today.

We may have to remove our expectation about major league starting pitching, but the plan is sound. I would suggest trading Willingham instead of Revere and moving Revere to left. I am very concerned that the Willingham of 2014 will be a liability on the field and his bat will drop to the median of left fielders.

It might be added that given the position of first base on the defensive spectrum, Morneau is really in competition any other bat. A team could sign Hamilton and then fill 1B internally by moving a player from another position. In any case, there will be demand for Morneau. Starting pitching is such a valued asset, but the Twins must continue to demand it in return or keep Morneau.

The Twins don't have what it takes to get major league ready pitching. They might have been able to trade Span for J.C. Sulbaran (and other minor pieces) who was moved in the Broxton deal. Sulbaran is a C+ prospect in AA. It is possible the Braves would have taken a combination of Liriano and Span for the injured Arodys Vizcaino and a C prospect. Other than those two, I didn't see any starting pitching prospects where the Twins could reasonably match the deal. Teams don't give up major league ready starting pitching without great return. Morneau is not going to be enough.

The window for trading Valencia by waivers is small. This is my understanding. You can place a player on waivers once in August with the ability to revoke. The second go around a claiming team receives the player and receives his contract. No compensation is involved. The Twins put up Valencia at a time where he was playing on the major league roster and flashed a little success. The waiver period is one day. The Red Sox were awarded the waiver. At this point the Twins will have 48 hours to make a deal with the Red Sox. This leaves the Twins with two choices. 1) Make the deal with the Red Sox for the best they will offer. 2) Retain Valencia who will need to remain on the 40 man roster. He may also be eligible for arbitration. They do not have a second chance at a waiver trade. They can not negotiate with other teams. The Twins chose the trade option. Hard to blame them.

Parmelee is not going to learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. He needs to come up and be allowed to play and struggle at this level. Teams out of contention can afford to do this with their prospects.

The decision to give Doumit a two year contract blocks Parmelee's development. Doumit is signed to be more than a back up catcher. Over his career, he is stronger from the left side which doesn't make him a good platoon option with anyone but Willingham and they are not platooning Josh. For this year, I would reduce Doumit's playing time and play Parmelee. It may help the Twins decide if they want to trade Morneau. They have to play Morneau to keep his trade value up.

It is far too early to know if Dozier will grow as a player. It takes an investment of over 1000 plate appearances. The Twins were wise to bring him up early this year at 25. He will soon enter the peak years of his career and the struggle at the major league level will help. Often players struggle early. AAA can not prepare players for major league pitching. If he can defend well enough at SS, he should be able to develop his bat into a regular SS through age 30. More should be expected from a bat at 2B. I think that is where Casilla is limited. The Twins don't believe in his glove at SS and he doesn't have the bat for 2B. I don't think Dozier has the bat for 2B either. Starting SS or utility is where he fits best.

I don't think we expected Jeter. I hoped for Jason Bartlett. Bartlett's rookie slash line was 241/316/335 with an OPS+ of 73. Brian Dozier 249/271/333 OPS+ of 65 with a few months to play. They were both 25 in their rookie seasons. It is not unreasonable that Dozier could follow his path. The difference is the walk rate which his minor league performance suggests he should be able to improve.

Thinking back on the trade in the context of the market, I do think the new CBA played a part in depressing this year's trade market. An additional wild card team should have led to more buyers. I am not so certain it did. At the time Liriano as traded, I was interested to see what kinds of deals were made for starting pitchers on deadline day. After the Liriano deal, two starting pitchers were traded. That surprised me. I expected more. It leads me to wonder how many teams were so interested in starting pitching that they were willing to part with top prospects. Pitchers more valuable than Liriano were left on the table. I look at the two deals an I wonder if Liriano could have been substituted in either. Paul Maholm deal- Liriano has better stuff, but I don't think his stuff is enough. Maholm has been consistently solid over his last 50 starts. He is not a rental and has a reasonable option for 2013. Had the Twins waited, I don't think the Braves would have given the Twins the same package they sent the Cubs. Dempster deal- A rental like Liriano, but performing much better. Given the choice, I think Texas would have more confidence in Dempster. They really didn't give up much. A B- infield prospect and a C pitching prospect. Hendricks looks a lot like a typical back of the rotation Twin pitcher with control. He is 8 months younger than Hernandez. He is also right handed and in A-Ball. He didn't enter the season in the Ranger top 30 but is likely there now. It does not appear that better deals were available had the Twins waited. Another aspect I wanted to look at is what would it take to get a Zack Wheeler type prospect at the trade deadline. I am not sure any Wheeler's were traded this year. The best of the pitching prospects also come with some concerns. Jacob Turner - Entered the season an A- prospect but his arm troubles and K rate are concerns. It took Anibal Sanchez to get him. The Twins don't have anyone like Sanchez to trade so this was not a possibility. Nate Eovaldi - Not Zack Wheeler but a B pitching prospect. It took Hanley Ramirez. John Hellweg and Ariel Pena - These are the pitchers in the Zach Grienke deal. B-/C+ prospects. Hellweg has the arm but lacks in performance. Born in 1988, he is old for a top prospect just hitting AA. Arodys Vizcaíno - Great prospect and huge injury concerns. Second arm injury leads him to Tommy John surgery. I would love for the Twins to have had the opportunity to roll the dice with him. However, I don't think Liriano has near the value of Maholm when you look at performance and next year's contract situation. Maybe a deal of Span and Liriano could brought Arodys Vizcaíno, but that is a lot to give up for such an injury risk. It is very likely that he will return as a reliever. Kyle Hendricks - Wrote about him above. A command and control pitcher from Dartmouth. It took Dempster to get him. J.C. Sulbaran - Noteworthy because this is the guy the Reds were willing to deal. Low 90s fastball curve and changeup. He is in AA this year and continues to struggle with control. Strikeout numbers look good. His upside made him an interesting prospect entering the season (BBA #12 Reds, Sickels C+). If Sulbaran was the key offering from the Reds in a Span deal, would you have traded Span. We do know that these starting pitchers were available since they were ultimately moved. Which pitcher could the Twins have acquired? I think they could have acquired Sulbaran in a deal for Span. They would have received other pieces but I think this is the best starting prospect the Reds were willing to part with. How about Vizcaino? Is Liriano close enough to Maholm that they could see Liriano meeting their needs? Certainly not alone. Would a package of Span and Liriano been enough? Maybe. But that's a lot to give up for an injured Vizcaino with concerns about whether he will hold up as a starter. Starting pitching prospects have always carried the most value. In the context of the new CBA, acquiring them at the trade deadline has become more difficult. The Twins best hope is to find and develop a few more Diamonds among the C prospects available. No easy task.

Thinking back on the trade in the context of the market, I do think the new CBA played a part in depressing this year's trade market. An additional wild card team should have led to more buyers. I am not so certain it did. At the time Liriano as traded, I was interested to see what kinds of deals were made for starting pitchers on deadline day. After the Liriano deal, two starting pitchers were traded. That surprised me. I expected more. It leads me to wonder how many teams were so interested in starting pitching that they were willing to part with top prospects. Pitchers more valuable than Liriano were left on the table. I look at the two deals an I wonder if Liriano could have been substituted in either. Paul Maholm deal- Liriano has better stuff, but I don't think his stuff is enough. Maholm has been consistently solid over his last 50 starts. He is not a rental and has a reasonable option for 2013. Had the Twins waited, I don't think the Braves would have given the Twins the same package they sent the Cubs. Dempster deal- A rental like Liriano, but performing much better. Given the choice, I think Texas would have more confidence in Dempster. They really didn't give up much. A B- infield prospect and a C pitching prospect. Hendricks looks a lot like a typical back of the rotation Twin pitcher with control. He is 8 months younger than Hernandez. He is also right handed and in A-Ball. He didn't enter the season in the Ranger top 30 but is likely there now. It does not appear that better deals were available had the Twins waited. Another aspect I wanted to look at is what would it take to get a Zack Wheeler type prospect at the trade deadline. I am not sure any Wheeler's were traded this year. The best of the pitching prospects also come with some concerns. Jacob Turner - Entered the season an A- prospect but his arm troubles and K rate are concerns. It took Anibal Sanchez to get him. The Twins don't have anyone like Sanchez to trade so this was not a possibility. Nate Eovaldi - Not Zack Wheeler but a B pitching prospect. It took Hanley Ramirez. John Hellweg and Ariel Pena - These are the pitchers in the Zach Grienke deal. B-/C+ prospects. Hellweg has the arm but lacks in performance. Born in 1988, he is old for a top prospect just hitting AA. Arodys Vizcaíno - Great prospect and huge injury concerns. Second arm injury leads him to Tommy John surgery. I would love for the Twins to have had the opportunity to roll the dice with him. However, I don't think Liriano has near the value of Maholm when you look at performance and next year's contract situation. Maybe a deal of Span and Liriano could brought Arodys Vizcaíno, but that is a lot to give up for such an injury risk. It is very likely that he will return as a reliever. Kyle Hendricks - Wrote about him above. A command and control pitcher from Dartmouth. It took Dempster to get him. J.C. Sulbaran - Noteworthy because this is the guy the Reds were willing to deal. Low 90s fastball curve and changeup. He is in AA this year and continues to struggle with control. Strikeout numbers look good. His upside made him an interesting prospect entering the season (BBA #12 Reds, Sickels C+). If Sulbaran was the key offering from the Reds in a Span deal, would you have traded Span. We do know that these starting pitchers were available since they were ultimately moved. Which pitcher could the Twins have acquired? I think they could have acquired Sulbaran in a deal for Span. They would have received other pieces but I think this is the best starting prospect the Reds were willing to part with. How about Vizcaino? Is Liriano close enough to Maholm that they could see Liriano meeting their needs? Certainly not alone. Would a package of Span and Liriano been enough? Maybe. But that's a lot to give up for an injured Vizcaino with concerns about whether he will hold up as a starter. Starting pitching prospects have always carried the most value. In the context of the new CBA, acquiring them at the trade deadline has become more difficult. The Twins best hope is to find and develop a few more Diamonds among the C prospects available. No easy task.

There are three roads. 1) Punt 2013 2) Go for it in 2013 3) Try to be competitive in 2013 They aren't punting. To do so would require trading off aging assets. You trade Willingham if you are punting. You don't sign Doumit. You start investing playing time in Parmelee. Are they going for it? We will see. Hard to imagine they will increase the budget in order to buy a pitching staff that can contend. My fear is that they will do neither. They will sign some decline phase players to fill holes and hope to hang around .500 long enough to give the impression of being competitive. In the end, they will enter 2014 with an aging roster following a 75-85 win season.

Twins, Astros and Cubs... three of the weakest teams the last two years. While the Cubs and Astros dismantle, the Twins have retained their better assets for 2103. With the dismantle the Cubs and Astros stock farm systems with hopes for the long term, the Twins moves (or lack) show they are planning to contend (stronger than compete) in 2013. Why else retain Willingham who will almost certainly decline by 2014? Why else sign Doumit and slow the development of Parmelee and Hermann? Doumit is likely the better player next year but I doubt beyond. Why else demand so much for Span? Why else retain Perkins and Burton when relievers were in some demand? Why else retain Morneau instead of buying some prospects in a Wandy Rodriguez type deal? Why else accept players in return for Liriano that can have a role on a major league team next year? Time will tell which direction was correct. In 2014, there might be excitement in Chicago and Houston while the Twins have an aging roster playing at best .500 ball. The only way this works is if the Twins plan to contend next year. For this to work, they must invest in two starting pitchers. Not a Marquis decline phase investment but spend twice that and get a Maholm type. Then spend more and get a lead pitcher. Will two pitchers be enough to contend? If not, they have taken the wrong direction. They must have decided they could not risk Liriano taking the qualifying offer. They must not have projected Liriano as their lead pitcher. Having watched him the last two years it is hard to argue the point. If the Twins don't find those starters in the winter, then they will continue the cycle of mediocrity. They will be quickly an aging team. They would have been better off long term by selling assets. Is this the right direction for this team? Should they have sold off their 2013 assets towards building a young and growing team?

They may make more August deals, but the likelihood of getting solid pitching prospect is zero. The only guys who might have brought that return will not pass through waivers.

Later corrected. The Reds have declined. Not Span. I hope the networks error doesn't stick to Span or the Twins.

Asking price too high? Keep Span or lower price?

You failed to mention that Vizcaino has had Tommy John surgery and has had a history of arm trouble. Even so, I do wonder if the Braves valued Maholm over Liriano. I would suspect that his reliable performance and team friendly contract through next season makes him clearly a more valuable piece.

Back to the question... Do you want players challenged or thriving? Great success at a level beings confidence and sometimes complacency. Challenge at a level brings hard work but shakes confidence. It is a balance but I believe being challenged and struggling at a level as a younger player is better for development than being league average age and thriving. Being challenged leads to hard work and willingness to listen, change and grow. It can build character. It can also lead to a messed up head. For the Twins major league prospects, I would like to see them move up quickly. I think they have done that well with Arcia. Sano has been challenged and is in the right spot but they might start him in AA next year. Rosario also. Hendriks has found success and is now learning he needs to make some changes. Organizations can not always wait so long that a player is ready for a level. You can't learn to be ready for major league hitters in AAA. If you are in the position of the Twins you can afford to let them struggle and see if they have the character to grow. Patience is the key. You may not see fruits until next year.

Good question. Illustrates Minnesota's dilemma. Snider is 24 with upside and disappointing performance. Perkins has been very good but as a reliever he is limited in value. He is probably the only reliever would bring Snider. Pitching is so weak that it is hard to imagine trading any for outfielder. I would keep Perkins.

Both of these cases were similar in the following ways. 1) The Twins were out of the race at the time of the trade. 2) Both players would be freely available in the off season. In this situation, I think the Twins were correct to take the best deal. It is a different situation if they were to trade Span who is under contract in future years. The deal from the in division rival would have to be significantly better than offers from other teams.

By trading Morneau, the Twins will be buying prospects in the form of paying salary. The Astros sent up to 17.7 million to the Pirates in the Rodriguez deal. It bought them #8, 13 and 16 prospects in the Pirate organization (BBA prospect handbook). Essentially, one B prospect and two Cs. The B prospect is not a pitcher. The Yankees are paying 18.1 million of Burnett's contract for a return of two guys that are not marginal prospects. It is not reasonable to expect the Twins will get much in return for Morneau. I don't think they can expect a solid B pitching prospect even if they pick up 2/3 of the remaining deal. Where is the precedent for trading a big contract at best average performing player with health concerns and getting a good return? Can we be reasonable about Morneau's value this time? Many on this board are great at analyzing the game. How did we miss on analyzing Liriano's value? More geek. Less freak.

The velocity numbers - Sits in the low 90s touching 95 - were in Joe Christensen's article. He was quoting from the BBA prospect handbook.

At 23, both are in the growth phase of their careers. If they were 25 or 26, that phase would begin to level. We won't know which other options the Twins had in dealing Liriano. My guess is that Ryan was looking for younger players and he was getting offers of players a few years older that may have had better numbers but stagnating careers. He took the younger players. They are both the same age as Liam Hendriks and Deolis Guerra. I am sure they would have ranked between Hendriks(#7) and Guerra(#15) - likely very close to Guerra in BBA's off season handbook. At 23, they have upside.

Watching Casilla get regular play this week, I wonder what the Twins plan for him. Should they continue to give him regular time when Plouffe returns? His one outstanding measure this year is UZR. Can his defense carry his bat? The new frontier in baseball understanding is defense impact on wins. I hope the Twins are pioneers I this area. Maybe defense means very little and batting is everything. Maybe not. I suggest the Twins start him regularly at 2B the rest of the way. Let's see if he can maintain his UZR. Trade Carroll for anything. Push his 3.75 to pitching.

It all depends on Escobar's defense. There are 14 shortstops with an OBP greater than .300. Only 16 teams are getting better than .300 from their shortstops overall. Many below the line are contenders. If he can defend like the reports suggest, he can start in the major leagues. At 23, he will likely follow a growth curve with his bat. Above average defenders at the shortstop position are not easy to find. Understanding of their value and impact on games is still growing. We are really relying on the Twins scouts and their assessment of his defense which is the key to his impact on the Twins.