jorgenswest

It's pretty hard to complain about the Twins locking up a guy for two years at $3.5m per year. As long as the Twins get a decent deal, I'm not against signing an older pitcher (provided that he's not the Twins "big move" for the entire offseason). They should have moved him at the deadline instead of the early commitment. I care more about the twins investing in the future. Those second half at bats should have been invested in Parmelee's development. His age, injury history, contract and inability to play adequately at any position make it difficult to get any value back right now.

Another podcast you might be interested in comes from Beyond the Boxscore. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/11/21/3674350/btb-podcast-28-jonah-keri-jays-marlins-trade-loria-and-prospect-talk Jonah Keri talks about the business of baseball and the blockbuster trade. The rest is prospect talk. In the AL Central you will hear about some Royals, White Sox and some Twins. If you are looking for laughs and entertainment this probably isn't your podcast.

He will be 32. If the moves stops the Twins from seeking and using a younger pitcher who will be part of the future solution, then I hope they go another direction. Assuming he can pitch somewhere between the level of his age 29 and 30 years, he will have value at the trade deadline. That only works if the contract is friendly. In that case, he can be an asset that will help the future. My fear is the Twins will pull a Doumit. He will be a bargain this year. Instead of flipping him for younger talent, they will extend him through 2015 and buy his age 33 and 34 seasons.

The GM comments about Chapman from MLB.com http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121105&content_id=40174418&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb If they decide to put Chapman in the rotation, they will have several free agent options to pursue including Broxton and Madsen. They are familiar with both and neither will break the bank. Therefore, they would not be desperate in making a move for Perkins with other options available. If they are not desperate, the return they would offer wouldn't likely be worthwhile.

I don't think they will put Roberts in CF so it is Ray or Ortiz. Both did enough to progress to AA. Ray can play 1B, but if they think he has the ability to play corner OF, they should keep him there. They do need to put forth who they think has the higher upside. Roberts' age will make that difficult to discern. I do think he would be the choice to go to AAA if there were a need.

I would put in some cash to help pay for Willingham and keep Daniel Santana. The deal makes sense towards rebuilding until they trade a position player who was 21 in high A.

---Yeah the win-now or build-for-tomorrow is a false dichotomy that's thrown out way too often. It doesn't have to be an either/or. The Twins should always be looking to improve themselves now and beyond. IMO, when you start to concede seasons because you've got some grand plan to start winning 3 or 4 years down the road, you're sending the message that it doesn't matter whether you win now or not because you're not trying or expecting to win, and that breeds a culture of losing. Look at the Royals and Pirates who have been trying to "rebuild" under these multi-year schemes for 2 decades now. I view "we're rebuilding" as nothing more than a euphemism for "we suck". Looking at the Royals and Pirates is probably deserving of an article. In short, the Royals spent most of the 2000s trying to do both. Look at the ages of their rosters over the last several years. It isn't until 2011 that you can look at their roster and the clear direction was their intention to rebuild. The 2011 roster was their youngest since the expansion season of 1969. They had two players over 30. The average batter age dropped three years from 2010. They stayed young in 2012. Now after two years they are trying to take their new rebuilt foundation and add pieces. Will they begin to see a payoff this year? Are they adding pieces a year too early? How about the Pirates? They 2009 Pirates were relatively young... particularly the pitchers. No pitchers were over 30. They also didn't stick with the plan. They signed a bunch of over 30 pitchers for the bullpen entering 2010. Last year they had most of their innings come from the over 30 crowd. It is not a surprise that they have languished in mediocrity for two decades. Rebuild or patch? It doesn't work to do both. The Pirates and Royals are an example.

It seems obvious that he should be at AA. Looking at the organizational depth... AAA - Benson, Arcia, Hicks A trade could happen to push one of them to the majors, but realistically these three need to play every day in AAA to begin the season. AA - Ortiz, Morales, Ray All three play high A at 22 last year. None of them tore it up. Morales struggled. All probably have better upsides than Roberts. Goncalves was also there at 23 and he will likely remain. Should the Twins step Roberts ahead of one of the Fort Myers trio? By offensive performance, it would be Morales. However, Morales is a center fielder. Ortiz, Ray and Roberts fit better at the corners. Last year, they moved Goncalves up when Morales was out. Roberts would probably have to pass over Ray or Ortiz. I can see why the Twins would be reluctant to make that move. The Twins could keep all 4 at AA and rotate DH. I think that slows everyone's progress. What if one of AAA players moves up to the majors? Could Roberts step up to AAA? Maybe. While it seems obvious that Roberts is prepared to skip a level, there are implications for the other younger corner outfielders in the organization.

The Twins and any of these players (other than Hannahan who is 33) are a good match. There will be motivation to take a minor league deal because Minnesota can offer a real shot at a place in the rotation or middle infield next year. More than anything else these players need a chance to prove themselves. The Twins also have enough guys that they can drop from the 40 to offer that status if necessary.

I echo Seth's comments. Highly recommended.

Whenever the Twins decide to rebuild, it will take a few years of struggles with a young roster. Signing decline phase players is an attempt to right the course is not rebuilding. The majority opinion on this site is that the Twins do not need to rebuild. They do not need to turn their decline phase assets into prospects not yet ready for the major leagues. I advocate that they rebuild and would like to start the clock now. The Twins have had three successful runs in Minnesota. All three had a foundation of very young rosters prior to the successful run.

They can put Diamond, Gibson and Hendriks in the rotation next year. There are three that can all be a key part of a winning team in 2015. They may struggle and the Twins must stick with them. They stuck with Viola through two miserable years and 56 starts. Radke was awful his first year and gave up 40 home runs his second. They gave him 63 starts his first two years. If either was in the current regime, they Twins probably would have bounced them around like they did with Hendriks. They may never have had the chance to develop. I highly doubt the current regime would have taken a Santana in the rule 5. Doyle was much closer to major league ready. Santana was useless his first year. There wasn't any payoff until three years down the road.

It is a mistake to think that they can accomplish both. Let's suppose that they can buy younger players by trading Morneau and picking up the bulk of his contract. Do they seek a 25 year old major league ready pitcher with around a 2 WAR ceiling? Do they seek a 21 year old higher ceiling player that may be ready for AA? I want the high ceiling player. If the priority is 2013, they have to go the other direction. I suggest they trade decline phase assets and add to the farm system. I suggest that they risk the playing time with unproven younger players. The young players that emerge will be the foundation for the next Twins team that wins a play off series.

From fangraphs http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/royals-celebrate-mediocrity-sign-jeremy-guthrie/ I fear the Twins will soon celebrate with the Royals.

They have at least three young pitchers that need to get the ball every 5th day. Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks They can trade Morneau and buy prospects buy picking up the majority of his salary. They can trade Willingham. They can also sweeten the return by picking up some of his salary. They can see if Doumit or Carroll have any value in younger players. From these deals a young pitcher should emerge. They can load up with guys like Zach Stewart in spring training in hopes of a Jared Burton find. They do not need to sign decline phase veteran pitchers to multiyear contracts. What happened to the Twins teams that let guys like Hunter, Gaetti, Gagne, Guzman, Bartlett, Viola, Santana, Hawkins and Radke struggle in the majors as young players? They weren't ready. They grew from their struggle. Hicks or Arcia can be given that chance to play regularly next year. Parmelee should have had that chance last year. They can put Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar or Florimon out in the field regularly. Some will emerge as cheap valuable players. No more old guys until they have a solid core of younger players. It will take time.

The ship can not be righted. It sunk in 2011. They need to build a new ship. The pitching woes are clear. They could spend significant dollars on starting pitching and still be below league average. The void is too great. The hidden problem is the aging offense. Last year they were below league average in runs scored. Of the 8 teams that were below league average in runs scored only two were above league average in bat age. While the other 6 were younger and many significantly younger and can be projected to improve, the Twins key offensive players are projected to decline. How do they fix both an aging offense and pitching? Signing more decline phase players only extends the problem into the future.

As the Twins watch the Tigers and Royals commit multiyear contracts to decline phase players, the Twins have an opportunity to play the other end. Guthrie will be 34 with dropping K rates. The Royals will be lucky to get one good year. His signing is great news for the Twins. The Tigers signing of Hunter is also great news. I would bet the Twins get better production out of Hicks or Arcia in 2014 at 13 million less. Why not take the opportunity to get younger this year? The Twins should not join others in making these commitments. Instead they should go the opposite direction. They should trade aging veteran assets for pitching or middle infield prospects. If given the choice of a major league ready player or a higher ceiling player that might be ready for AA, let's go with the higher ceiling. They should wait out the fee agent market. The good news about the larger number of pitchers on the market is that some will be left at the end. I think the geek suggested last year that the Twins should have waited out the free agent relief pitchers rather than signing Matt Capps early. They could have found a bargain. This year there are numerous starters. Let's wait out the market and sign a few pitchers to a one year deals at the end of the market. If it works out well, those pitchers can be flipped for prospects at the trade deadline. Yes. They will lose more games this year than last. It will also be the first step towards long term success. They went young in the early 80s with the youngest rosters in organizational history and it paid off from 1987-1992. They went young again in 1999. That pay off period closed in 2010. Do you have patience to wait for the next pay off? I fear that the Twins management believes that we can not wait. I fear they will make moves that may nudge the Twins closer to .500 but also continue the current cycle of mediocrity. Is there anyone else out there hoping that the Twins do not make the kinds of free agent moves that so many others are recommending or even demanding?

Three concerns... Citing 2010-2011 stats really doesn't project how a pitcher declines from age 34 to 37. The decrease in average fastball should be a concern. There was a decrease from 2010 to 2011. Corresponding his xFIP increased from 3.86 to 4.14. Last year, a huge drop occurred. How can any team know that all of the drop was due to the injury? How much should his age factor into the decision? The second concern is that some pitchers are inning eaters. Is there any basis where it would be reasonable to project that Pavano will be more likely to stay healthy all of 2013 than another pitcher. Is there a mathematical way to use data that would indicate a projection of inning eating? Maybe it is reasonable to project Pavano with 200 innings of 4.50 ERA. That would look good relative to Blackburn. Even so, wouldn't the Twins be better off risking those inning and starts with a younger pitcher? A pitcher with a chane to be part if the future solution. Look at the decisions the Twins made in 1997 and 1998. They signed old guys like Tewksbury and Morgan. They weren't terrible. They also continued the cycle of mediocrity. In 1999 and 2000, they stopped doing that. They gave the innings to younger players. They suffered through a 63 win season in 1999. A 21 year old Santana had an ERA over 6 in 2000. In 1998 those innings would have gone to a decline phase pitcher like Greg Swindell. Swindell was reasonably successful. He was not part of the solution. Santana on the other hand...

He will be 30 next year. Defensive metrics have never been great and were poor last year. He may not be able to stay at SS too much longer. I would pass.

The value of prospects and young under control players has never been greater. The value of a veteran has declined. The only the Marlins unload a few of those bad contracts is to include others that are reasonable in the deal. They couldn't get anyone to take Buerhle unless they gave up something else. It isn't going to be easy to get significant value for Morneau. The Twins need to buy prospects on the form of paying a good deal of his salary next year.

To earn the contract, Baker needs to produce 1 WAR. In fact according to Parker's recent article, he may not even need to perform that well. I think it is reasonable to think that Baker could produce 2 WAR next season and be worth over 10 million. It is quite possible the Twins will regret not picking up that option. The Twins should have expected that he would sign elsewhere if they did not pick up the option. It will be interesting to see of the 9 million we spend this winter on pitching out performs Baker.

That is the other end of the argument. A reasonable position. Trading aging major league assets for prospects will cost wins in 2013 and reduce ticket sales. The 1982 and 1999 seasons were among the Twins poorest. They were also the first painful step towards the playoffs.

The early ZIPS projections were reported midweek and the AL Central has sobering information for the Twins. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8599684/projecting-american-league-central-players-teams-2013-mlb Note: Unfortunately, you will need an insider account to access the link above. The Twins in their construction are projected for 66 wins and 5th place in the AL Central. Entering the 2012 season they had a projected 70 win team from ZIPS so in the ZIPS lens the Twins have dropped back some. Clearly, the poor starting rotation has a significant impact on the performance. Scott Diamond and his poor k/9 ratio is the number 1 starter projected for a 4.85 ERA. Gleeman and the Geek had an interesting debate last week about indicators and performance. Runs given up is what matters. However runs given up in 2012 is not the best indicator of runs given up in 2013. Strikeout, walk, ground ball and home run rates are better indicators for 2013. Diamond's indicators and his three year past shows that ZIPS expects a significant regression. The projections have a hard time even finding a 5th starter listing Duensing but giving him an innings number and projection of a reliever/spot starter. The Twins can gain some ground by replacing Blackburn's and DeVries' projection. Replacing Blackburn and DeVries with league average performance will help significantly. Maybe even 6-8 wins. That only gets them to 74. The real concern has to be projections for the Twins offense. Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span are all projected to regress. Why? All five had a relatively healthy season compared to previous and that can not be expected again. Four of the five are in their 30s. In the steroid era, some players kept their peak performance well into their 30s. That is not likely the case. ZIPS OPS projections for these 5 Willingham .890 to .819 Mauer .861 to .812 Morneau .773 to .767 Doumit .781 to .722 Span .738 to .700 Morneau's is not a mathematically significant drop, but it also isn't a return to his previous level and mediocre play for a 1B. ZIPS projections are based on 3-4 years of previous data based on the player's age. The Twins can choose to ignore them. Somehow they need to convince the faithful that they can add three pitchers and all will be OK. It is necessary for ticket sales. I would suggest that the Twins can not be fixed for 2013. The only long term fix is to repair the minor league system. How do they turn it around? 1) Sign no one to a multiyear contract that will commit the Twins beyond their age 32 season. 2) Trade off declining assets and build the system. Trading Willingham is a must. He is owed 14 million (2 years). He can not be put in LF any longer. He is unlikely to be more valuable than he is this off season. Someone will take on all 14 million and give the Twins prospects 3) Similarly Morneau has 14 million left over 1 year. The Twins should trade him and "buy" prospects in the form of picking up a significant portion of his contract. 4) Do not offer extensions that commits the Twins to anyone beyond their age 32 season. That means pay Burton his due this year and do not extend him beyond 2013. Hopefully he is a tradeable asset midseason. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968-Burton-What-s-is-the-Future-for-a-31-Year-Old-Set-Up-Man 5) Does Doumit have any value in a trade? Is it reasonable to think his 2014 season will be anything like his 2012 season? http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1390-Priorities-The-Best-Backup-Catcher-in-Baseball 6) Wait out the free agent season. Although Ryan would disagree, there are plenty of starting pitchers on the market. Some will be left with few suitors The Twins should be able to sign some of them to a 1 year deal. If the deal is one year, age should not be a factor. It is critical that they no longer sign decline phase players to multiyear contracts. They did it in the 90s with no success. The 1997-1998 teams were among the oldest Twin rosters. The 2012 roster is comparable to those of 98-99. Doing so will only continue the cycle of mediocrity. How do they turn it around? Go young. Build the system. They did it in 1982. The average batter and pitcher age were both lowest in organization history. It paid off. They did it again in 1999. Average batter age dropped 3 years and average pitcher age dropped 2.4 from 1998. Paid off again. Can you wait for the pay off? Would you rather be mediocre? I fear the Twins management doesn't trust the ticket buying public to accept the growing pains of building the system. They will sign decline phase players to multiyear contracts to satisfy the fans and drive ticket sales. This article will be written again next year as it was last year. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?332-Are-the-Twins-in-danger-of-entering-a-cycle-of-mediocrity

The early ZIPS projections were reported midweek and the AL Central has sobering information for the Twins. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8599684/projecting-american-league-central-players-teams-2013-mlb Note: Unfortunately, you will need an insider account to access the link above. The Twins in their construction are projected for 66 wins and 5th place in the AL Central. Entering the 2012 season they had a projected 70 win team from ZIPS so in the ZIPS lens the Twins have dropped back some. Clearly, the poor starting rotation has a significant impact on the performance. Scott Diamond and his poor k/9 ratio is the number 1 starter projected for a 4.85 ERA. Gleeman and the Geek had an interesting debate last week about indicators and performance. Runs given up is what matters. However runs given up in 2012 is not the best indicator of runs given up in 2013. Strikeout, walk, ground ball and home run rates are better indicators for 2013. Diamond's indicators and his three year past shows that ZIPS expects a significant regression. The projections have a hard time even finding a 5th starter listing Duensing but giving him an innings number and projection of a reliever/spot starter. The Twins can gain some ground by replacing Blackburn's and DeVries' projection. Replacing Blackburn and DeVries with league average performance will help significantly. Maybe even 6-8 wins. That only gets them to 74. The real concern has to be projections for the Twins offense. Willingham, Doumit, Mauer, Morneau and Span are all projected to regress. Why? All five had a relatively healthy season compared to previous and that can not be expected again. Four of the five are in their 30s. In the steroid era, some players kept their peak performance well into their 30s. That is not likely the case. ZIPS OPS projections for these 5 Willingham .890 to .819 Mauer .861 to .812 Morneau .773 to .767 Doumit .781 to .722 Span .738 to .700 Morneau's is not a mathematically significant drop, but it also isn't a return to his previous level and mediocre play for a 1B. ZIPS projections are based on 3-4 years of previous data based on the player's age. The Twins can choose to ignore them. Somehow they need to convince the faithful that they can add three pitchers and all will be OK. It is necessary for ticket sales. I would suggest that the Twins can not be fixed for 2013. The only long term fix is to repair the minor league system. How do they turn it around? 1) Sign no one to a multiyear contract that will commit the Twins beyond their age 32 season. 2) Trade off declining assets and build the system. Trading Willingham is a must. He is owed 14 million (2 years). He can not be put in LF any longer. He is unlikely to be more valuable than he is this off season. Someone will take on all 14 million and give the Twins prospects 3) Similarly Morneau has 14 million left over 1 year. The Twins should trade him and "buy" prospects in the form of picking up a significant portion of his contract. 4) Do not offer extensions that commits the Twins to anyone beyond their age 32 season. That means pay Burton his due this year and do not extend him beyond 2013. Hopefully he is a tradeable asset midseason. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968-Burton-What-s-is-the-Future-for-a-31-Year-Old-Set-Up-Man 5) Does Doumit have any value in a trade? Is it reasonable to think his 2014 season will be anything like his 2012 season? http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1390-Priorities-The-Best-Backup-Catcher-in-Baseball 6) Wait out the free agent season. Although Ryan would disagree, there are plenty of starting pitchers on the market. Some will be left with few suitors The Twins should be able to sign some of them to a 1 year deal. If the deal is one year, age should not be a factor. It is critical that they no longer sign decline phase players to multiyear contracts. They did it in the 90s with no success. The 1997-1998 teams were among the oldest Twin rosters. The 2012 roster is comparable to those of 98-99. Doing so will only continue the cycle of mediocrity. How do they turn it around? Go young. Build the system. They did it in 1982. The average batter and pitcher age were both lowest in organization history. It paid off. They did it again in 1999. Average batter age dropped 3 years and average pitcher age dropped 2.4 from 1998. Paid off again. Can you wait for the pay off? Would you rather be mediocre? I fear the Twins management doesn't trust the ticket buying public to accept the growing pains of building the system. They will sign decline phase players to multiyear contracts to satisfy the fans and drive ticket sales. This article will be written again next year as it was last year. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?332-Are-the-Twins-in-danger-of-entering-a-cycle-of-mediocrity