jorgenswest

I think most teams would take Brignac over Florimon. We will see if he passes through waivers as Florimon did last year. The Twins must see elite defensive value in Florimon that other teams do not see. Of the three, Escobar has the better reputation defensively. Though it is unlikely that any of the three will be a long time regular, Brignac has the best chance to combine moderate offense with an above average glove. Escobar has a chance to have a Nick Punto type career. I think we can be certain that Florimon will combine a great arm with some flashy plays, numerous mistakes and infrequent success at the plate. That is his long term track record and he is a little old to become a prospect now.

Just a few questions in my mind as I read... By performance, weren't many of the teams of the last decade better than the 1987 team? The 1987 team had the great fortune of home field advantage though they didn't earn it. It rotated in that era. Once in the playoffs, the small sample of games makes it very difficult to assess the quality of the team. An extra home game was huge for the Twins. That assessment is best done by the in season performance. Why trade Garza and Bartlett for a known troubled player in Delmon Young? How does that fit with concerns about Twins way or ethnicity? More questions come to mind... The frequent appearances of Carew and Oliva, choosing Buxton over Appel, winning the monetary battle to sign Sano... Are they consistent with the thoughts in the article?

Should umpires be paying attention to the pitch f/x data? How are they made aware individually or as a group where they are missing calls? What work do they do towards improving at their craft?

One take... Our pitchers need any advantage they can get. Doumit needs to leave the catcher glove at home. Second take... Maybe through video study Steinbach can work with Doumit and they can correct and improve his ability to frame pitches. Third take... Maybe the Twins management realizes that this data is meaningless and they have found tremendous value in Doumit where others teams were not interested last winter. So much value that they extended him two years. He will continue to catch many games for the Twins. In any case, Otis more important than ever that Mauer remains healthy all season.

I get the wild connection, but not sure how it fits Masterson. I haven't looked at the game charts for his games to know which catcher did the best job of getting strikes for the balls he threw in the zone. It will be a small sample of pitches in any case.

While looking for pitch frame data for catcher I ran across some data for pitchers. I haven't seen the data presented this way and I haven't seen data before 2012. It turns out Sam Deduno netted a loss of 30 strikes per 1000 pitches. It wasn't the greatest number among starter but did rank third behind Justin Masterson and Jeanmar Gomez. Bad luck? Poor pitch framing on the part of the catcher? Umpires knowing his reputation not expecting a strike? Below is a link to a graphic from Texas Leaguers showing Sam Deduno pitches. http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/charts/gen/4656792012030420121003AAAAAstrikezone.png Among starting pitchers, Freddy Garcia benefitted the most from getting strikes called on balls outside the zone. Among all pitchers, Jeff Gray had the worst "luck" losing a net of 39 strikes per 1000 pitches. This data may not mean anything. It might be the catcher. It might be the pitcher. Maybe it is a combination of both. Doumit has not fared well over the last few years in attempts to measure pitch framing. Did he catch many of Deduno's games? Maybe it is a combination the Twins want to avoid.

Listened to Gleeman and the Geek and they referenced Butera's catching ability with respect to framing pitches. They had him saving several runs a year. They may have a different source for data, but I did find data here. To summarize for Twins catchers. [TABLE=width: 552] Name Pitches Runs 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Per 150 Joe Mauer 33903 24 6 8 4 4 1 0.11 Drew Butera 11762 -3 1 -1 -3 NA NA -0.04 Ryan Doumit 27070 -69 -16 -8 -2 -10 -33 -0.38 [/TABLE] The last column is mine to try to add some context. It is runs saved per 150 pitches which is about the number the Twins averaged per game last year. Edit - Presumably if a catcher is getting more strike calls and saving runs, he is not seeing as many pitches per game and the figure is lower. On the other hand, if a catcher is not getting strikes called the number of pitches will be greater. Butera is above average at other aspects of defending the catcher position. I haven't seen evidence that framing pitches is something he does well. He appears to be league average but with his bat doesn't he need to be an elite defensive catcher?

I created this thread so the comment must be aimed at me. I will have to be more careful about the words I choose and have edited the unintended heading. I am confused by the other references you attributed to me. I don' t recall participating or being interested in any of those discussions.

I don't think the Twins should be concerned about super 2. They may spend more money on Aaron Hicks in arbitration, but mid market teams can afford to spend that cost. They should be concerned about service time and free agency. That date is fixed and waiting a few weeks into the season guarantees an extra year before free agency.

The Twins will have a decision to make about Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson. Do they make the opening day roster? Waiting until early May will allow them an extra year of team control. They did this with Dozier last year waiting until May 7. Though criticized in an article about opening presents on this site, they did wait long enough. They did risk arbitration a year earlier but did not risk a year of team control. Mid market teams like the Twins can afford to start the arbitration process a year earlier for a super 2. Should the Twins wait the 3-4 weeks necessary to ensure that Hicks and Gibson will not earn a year of service time? Isn't a full season in their prime better than a month of their rookie season? Would anyone advocate the Twins wait through the super 2 threshold (likely late June) in order to save some dollars in arbitration?

Young power arms are very difficult to acquire. Acquiring two is a credit to Ryan and worthy of a good grade. While it makes sense for a team with so little talent to put an eye towards the future, it doesn't make sense to do it halfway. Why not trade off some decline phase assets? They could have done so in July. Why not spend money on some veterans that can be flipped at the trade deadline? Though he was an all star in 2011, it is hard to imagine Correia having any value at the trade deadline 2013. Why sign him? Saunders or Marcum make much more sense. With every decision, the Twins need to have the future in mind. They entered the offseason with that mindset. I am not sure what the mindset is now.

It looks as if the last few pitchers in the deep market are running out of suitors. The Twins still have money in their pockets. Maybe they can get a bargain out of what is left and flip them at the deadline.

Someone is going to figure out how to utilize the pitching staff to get the numbers back down to an 11 man staff. The decrease in bench spots has taken away true platooning from baseball. Look at the 1991 Twins roster. They must have had a 10 man staff at times. Look at the possibilities on the bench. You have a true platoon at 3B. You have bench bats in Larkin, Bush, Leius/Pags and Munoz. They still had a spot for a back up catcher in Ortiz and middle infielder in Newman. How would the Twins have configured that roster if they had to carry 12 or 13 pitchers? They would have to have Newman and Ortiz. They were lucky to have a starting corner OF who could move to CF allowing them to carry a guy like Bush. If it is a 13 man staff, that is it. No Leius, Larkin or Munoz. Let's be the team that figures out how to increase the bench and reduce the size of the pitching staff. The first step is to utilize and reconfigure the bullpen very differently.

I agree with the concern about increasing the pitching staff size. I also agree that the Twins enter the season with some fragile arms. I would use Correia as the "6th starter" from the pen when all are healthy. Insert him as needed to replace a starter following a high pitch count start. Insert him in the rotation in the middle of a long stretch without a day off. When the day to day injuries occur, be quicker to DL a pitcher and insert Correia in the rotation. It takes more than 5 starters to get through the season(... except for the Reds). I would prefer Correia to be the pitcher that gets bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation.

It is encouraging to know that they consider the new data including Pitch F/X. Perhaps analysis led them to believe that pull hitters would be more effective at Target Field and signing Willingham followed the analysis. Perhaps recent analysis has led them to see the value in power pitchers with the acquisition on May and Meyer. Perhaps they have chosen to disregard the current research about the value of defense and defensive metrics. While the other teams strive to improve their defense, the Twins have loaded the roster with some of the poorest defenders in baseball in Willingham, Doumit, Plouffe and Parmelee. Their bats may make them look like a bargain. However if the Twins want to get back any value in trade, they have to find another team that doesn't value defense. Doumit and Willingham might be a tough sell to NL teams. Perhaps analysis has led them to believe that Doumit and Willingham will not decline and instead maintain their current level of play through the end of their contracts in 2014. Perhaps their analysis has led them to a gem and elite fielder in Florimon where no other team saw the value. No one wanted Mastroianni? The Twins see a starting center fielder and lead off hitter. Many words have been written about the analysis that led them to the current construction of the starting rotation. I hope that the Twins are correct. The fastest way out of this hole is to find contributing players among those rejected by other teams. Do you trust the Twins management to lead us out of the hole?

I agree. We need a back up catcher. As for age, it only matters because he is at the end of the growth curve. There aren't many major league bench jobs for right handed 1B/DH. Those left baseball when pitching staffs went from 10-11 to 12-13 man staffs.

It should be stated that Ruiz was 30 years old and in his ninth organization by the time he arrived with the Twins. The Twins decided to go with a much younger Kubel at DH. Shame on the organization. They should have been so much smarter than his previous 8 organizations.

Colabello needs to get to the majors soon if he is going to be useful. He is too old to be in AAA. As long as the Twins don't carry 13 pitchers at times, they can afford one corner bench bat. Is Colabello the best bat for that role? Not sure. He bats right handed and that appears to be a need. However, he was slightly better against right handed pitching in AA last year. His walk rate doesn't have much room to drop without major league pitching taking advantage. If the Twins do trade Morneau, he does seem like the best option.

Any team that has a winning bid for a free agent has overpaid. Some organizations are desirable enough that simply matching is good enough. In the Twins case, they probably have to beat other offers. They are not a small market team. They can afford to overpay a few players. They need to do so wisely. The Twins seemed to set he direction this season of getting younger. It is not the offseason to overpay for decline phase players. Adding a Worley fits the plan. Going after guys like Pelfrey makes sense. Jurrjens and Lannan would be similar fits. Adding a Sanchez or Jackson would have fit a long term plan. I don't get the Correia signing. How does he fit the plan? It seems like he will only take away opportunity from Hendriks or Gibson. The only way I can see the fit is if he is the guy that bounces from long man to emergency/injury starter keeping Duensing in the pen. The Twins might need Swarzak in this role also. I am not sure if it is worth 5 million a year, but that role is worth something and it is better than shuttling guys back and forth as injuries occur. Maybe he is a guy who can take the ball early in the game and throw 5 innings of relief. If so, does that help the Twins stay at a 12 man staff. The extra bench player can have significant value. Do you think the Twins are following a plan or is cutting payroll the driving motivation behind the moves this offseason?

Nice study. My original thought was that since strikeouts are on the rise, defensive chances decline. Relievers tend to have higher strikeout rates and lower ground ball rates. That quick thought doesn't do the work justice. I am not sure that strikeouts completely explain the shift. Worthy of more thought. Too bad we don't have pitch fx data to compare eras.

The Twins should definitely go after young talent. Some team will pay big. Diaz will probably take the best deal. The Twins can afford to take this risk. He could turn out to be an absolute bust and they risk getting blasted by the fan base for taking the risk. I hope they take the risk.

It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams. The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions be enough or will they be more like the Mets of the last 4 years? The Astros are all in the rebuild process. They have two players over 30 (Pena and Veras). In 2012, they hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. Their farm system had been one of the weakest for years. Keith Law has said that their farm system took a hug leap forward, the largest 6 month jump of any team. They go into this season without hope of approaching 90 wins, but they have set a clear direction. Will they be able to rebuild the team through the farm system? Like the Astros, the Twins have rebuilt their farm system in the last year. The draft class combined with the recent trades puts them in a much stronger position. Like the Cubs, they have more decline phase players on the roster. The Twins may have more over 30 players on their opening day roster than the Cubs. In order to help rebuild the system, the Twins traded off younger assets rather than older. That was out of necessity. The Twins have spent budget on decline phase players hoping to compete in the weak central. Can the Twins be successful at doing both? Three different markets. Three different paths. Which leads to sustained success?

It will be interesting to watch three teams as they try to pull themselves out of the basement. The Twins, Cubs and and Astros all have set out different path towards success. They also represent the three very different markets and revenue streams. The Cubs have purged salaries in trades and then are putting money back in for next year. They will probably not match last year's payroll, but they will spend the most of the three. They also have the most revenue. Will the additions be enough or will they be more like the Mets of the last 4 years? The Astros are all in the rebuild process. They have two players over 30 (Pena and Veras). In 2012, they hired Mike Fast and Kevin Goldstein. Their farm system had been one of the weakest for years. Keith Law has said that their farm system took a hug leap forward, the largest 6 month jump of any team. They go into this season without hope of approaching 90 wins, but they have set a clear direction. Will they be able to rebuild the team through the farm system? Like the Astros, the Twins have rebuilt their farm system in the last year. The draft class combined with the recent trades puts them in a much stronger position. Like the Cubs, they have more decline phase players on the roster. The Twins may have more over 30 players on their opening day roster than the Cubs. In order to help rebuild the system, the Twins traded off younger assets rather than older. That was out of necessity. The Twins have spent budget on decline phase players hoping to compete in the weak central. Can the Twins be successful at doing both? Three different markets. Three different paths. Which leads to sustained success?

Jim, I think the Twins management agree with you on defense and stats. They are going to let everyone else go ahead on this curve and hope it is the wrong direction. Even looking at the numbers, Carroll at best measured in the middle of qualifying shortstops. He did not have the innings to join that group. His defensive runs saved and UZR are ordinary. The numbers show that he has below average range and does not make a lot of errors. I think our eyes can see that. However, I do think the Twins should be paying attention to the defensive metrics. Maybe they are, but their roster decisions over the last two years indicate otherwise. Certainly, the decisions they have made indicate that they do not think defense has a significant impact on wins.

I prefer the Twins future.