jorgenswest

Why is there such consistency since 2007 in which catchers do well (getting more strikes from balls) and which catchers do poorly (getting strikes called a ball)?

Shouldn't a complete analysis be net runs--delta runs scored less delta runs allowed? How does a change in pitching reflected? Example: Span CF is traded for a starting pitcher who replaces a lesser starting pitcher. Revere replaces Span in CF and Parmalee replaces Revere in RF. It seems the complete analysis involves the changes in all of these players (both defensively and offensively) rather than just the defensive OFers. Good point. Parmelee's offense replaces Span's. Span would have the better OBP and Parmelee the SLG. Hard to measure value of a lead off hitter taking lots of pitches and getting on base, but Parmelee's offense is likely an improvement. I can't imagine it is a 40 run improvement. Should I have projected Meyer on the major league roster?

I do try to keep an open mind with defensive metrics and I really look forward as they are refined over time. But: Trumbo 7 in LF -6 in RF Justin Maxwell 12 CF -2 Both LF and RF Hechavarria 2 SS -1 3B Nyjer Morgan 7 CF -1 RF kyle Seager 3 2B -7 3B Ruggiano 6 CF -4 LF Greg Dobbs -1 1B -10 3B Duda -2 LF -16 RF Bryce Harper 13 CF -8 RF/LF combined Domonic Brown 0 LF -6 RF David Murphy 7 LF -1 RF Zobrist 0 SS -5 2B Keppinger 7 3B -1 1B Todd Frazier 3 3B -6 1B Tyler Colvin 7 CF -2 RF And Ben Revere 11 RF -3 CF Plus Darwin Barney 28 in 2012 and 1 in 2011 I consider the above examples grains of salt. Are those career numbers? I would think there are serious sample size issues if those are split positions in a single season. Below is a study about reliability and correlation. Using a minimum of 667 innings, this even/odd year study produced a high positive correlation of .59. http://www.billjamesonline.com/how_well_do_advanced_defensive_statistics_correlate/ Are the Twins paying attention? I hope so.

Doumit and Willingham both are most useful in a DH role. They both look like bargains because all of their value is offense. The runs they cost the team due to defense isn't as apparent. The Twins, based on their moves in the last year, don't value highly the newer metrics associated with defense. I think their is a growing group of teams who think otherwise. Let's hope the Twins are right in their skepticism of these new measures.

I looked at the data and I don't see the relationship between team, catcher and quality of pitchers. All of the new metrics about fielding and its impact on wins is very new. I am not certain how strongly the Twins should embrace all of the data that is available today.With their moves, they don't seem to be embracing it at all. I hope they are right.

Trading Denard Span to get pitching was necessary. Taking the high upside/higher risk prospect was wise. It is very difficult to get a top starting pitching prospect. However, I am concerned about the Twins plan for the outfield. Is Parmelee in RF the plan? Denard Span was credited with saving 20 runs above average (1073 innings) as a CF last year. Ben Revere has a -4 for his career in CF (1123 innings). That is a -24 run change. Ben Revere fares much better in RF saving 11 runs above average. It helps that the average RF is nowhere near the average CF. If Parmelee replaces him, how will he fare. It is difficult to know. I would think the Twins would be fortunate if he was in the -10 neighborhood. He has played very little outfield in the upper minors. Willingham was a -13 in LF in 2012. It would seem that Parmelee would be in his neighborhood defensively. If the Twins lose around 20 runs to average in CF and another 20 in right field that 40 run loss represents a significant increase to runs given up. It Those additional 40 runs given up equate to 4 additional losses. Likely it won;t be that bad. I think Revere will be better than league average in CF. Thirty runs might be a more reasonable projection. Poor defense has another huge impact on the team. Poor defense will also extend innings, burden an overworked bullpen and slow the development of young pitchers. Data was taken from fangraphs.com (defensive runs saved)

2011 data on Butera and all other catchers with reference to pitch fx is below https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmezwgYbFov9dDNZTm1rMVJvSjNaMXNwUXI0d3VvRXc&hl=en_US#gid=0 He did not fare well in the 2011 analysis. Entering 2012, Jose Molina was ranked #1 and Doumit was at the very bottom. Is it simply an amazing coincidence that in spite of changing teams and parks they were ranked at the top and bottom for the 2012 season? If the catcher has no control, why isn't it random?

It is hard to believe. Can it be ignored? While other teams have hired some of the pitch f/x pioneers like Mike Fast, the Twins watch from the sidelines. Hopefully time will show that the Twins took the right path. Understanding the impact of defense on winning ball games is still in the early stages. It is easy to see the side the Twins stand on with their decisions to sign Willingham and Doumit last year and willingness to trade their best defensive player this year. What's next? Starting Parmelee in RF?

Risk of extending? See Nick Blackburn. Risk of not extending? Revere becomes a much better player than projected and he is due a big pay day in arbitration. I'd take the second risk. The first means you carry around a poorly performing player too long because of the contract. The second means you pay more for good performance. The Twins are not a small market team. They can afford to pay high performing players their due in arbitration.

"I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus Read the article at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18863 It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Ryan Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Jose Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Ryan Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers.Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games.

"I don’t say this about many decisions, but starting Doumit at catcher might be a fireable offense. In 60 games at catcher for Pittsburgh in 2011, his framing cost the Pirates 20 runs. In 59 games for Minnesota in 2012, his framing cost the Twins 21 runs. All told, his framing has subtracted 98 runs over the past five seasons, on top of the damage from the other things he does poorly behind the plate, which wipes out his offensive value." Ben Lindbergh, Baseball Prospectus Read the article at http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18863 It has been difficult on this site to state concerns about Doumit and the Twins extending him. In a debate last week, I was told 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit and he was more valuable than ever. Let's look at two teams attempt to fill out a bench. Last fall the Twins and Rays were both seeking catching help. The Rays signed Jose Molina and the Twins signed Ryan Doumit. The Rays signed Molina for 1.5 million and picked up his option for 2013 at 1.5 (also reported 1.8) million. The Twins have invested 10 million in Doumit over three years. For several years catching performance has been evaluated using pitch f/x. The results seem to be reliable as the catchers who perform at the top or bottom of the list remain relatively stable. This information and study by Mike Fast was available to both teams. Aaron Gleeman referenced it at the time of the Doumit signing. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093 Jose Molina was the best catcher at saving runs through framing pitches over a 5 year period. Ryan Doumit was at the bottom of the list. They were at the extremes both in total and average per 120 games. How did it work out for both clubs? http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/18896 If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter. Molina and Doumit took there familiar positions at the top and bottom of the list. A result that could have been easily projected. 28-29 teams would love to have Doumit? Must be everyone except the Rays. It couldn't be more clear that the Twins evaluation differs greatly from the Rays. One other quote from the first article about the Twins management and pitch f/x "...Ryan Doumit, the patron saint of poor receivers.Except that Doumit hasn’t exactly been blacklisted behind the plate: in fact, he caught more innings for Minnesota in 2012 than he did as a Pirate the season before. Well, okay, you might say, but that was the Twins, the one team you could almost persuade yourself hasn’t heard about PITCHf/x yet. (“Wait, you mean all this time all of our pitchers were throwing really slowly?”) I am assuming you stopped reading this a long time ago if you join the Twins management in skepticism about pitch f/x. If not, what should the Twins do about Doumit? Doumit's only value as a catcher is on someone's fantasy baseball team. In that realm, Molina isn't even an afterthought. Doumit does have value. He can platoon at DH and pinch hit. While I question whether that role merits an extension, the real concern is the Twins management understanding of the impact of defense on wins. The Twins should not enter the season with any plan of using Doumit as a catcher. Anything more than a late inning emergency replacement can not be justified. Our young and struggling pitching staff must be given any edge the Twins can provide. There has been much discussion about the Twins carrying 5 catchers. It is really 4 if Doumit is rightly moved into a Jim Thome role. It is 3 if Butera does not return. One of the three, Pinto, is not near ready for the majors. That leaves Mauer and Herrmann. The bigger question must be asked about the Twins management. From the outside, it seems like they are taking a long time to embrace some of the metrics of the last decade. One roster decision about a back up catcher speaks volumes about the two teams. One team commits 3 million to get two years of top ranked defense. The other commits 10 million over three years for an above average bat without a position. Let's hope the Twins are right and the metrics of the last decade are poor indicators of how to build a roster and win ball games.

The good reason... no possibility the Braves were going to tender. The Twins are the perfect match. He needs opportunity. No one has more opportunity to offer. He should jump at any low salary incentive based deal the Twins offer.

Given the value and impact of starting pitching, Meyer is probably number 3 behind Sano and Buxton.

Trade him and add some cash to get the highest upside prospect offered. There is a very high likelihood of a significant decline or significant injury before the commitment ends.

Hendriks may not be ready. Viola wasn't ready. Radke wasn't ready. They needed 50+ starts and it was their third full season before the Twins got the real payoff. The Twins received no pay off from Santana until year 3. I don't think that Radke or Viola would have been allowed to work through their struggles with the current management and fan base. They would have bounced back and forth to AAA. Imagine the posts we would have read about them on this site. I don't know if there is a pay off coming in Hendriks future. If the Twins scouts believe he has a solid future as a starter the Twins need to invest the starts. If this site is representative of the Twins fan base, I don't think there is much willingness to be patient. I fear the management will listen to the fans and sign decline phase pitchers that have a better chance of being mediocre without any upside in the future.

Hochevar could be nontendered and much cheaper if the Twins wait. There is a glimmer of hope that he is 29 and some possible upside. No upside with Chen.

It is much more difficult to steal a player since baseball added another year of service before players become eligible. It is unlikely a guy like Santana would have been available under the current rules. I think Sulbaran was rumored to part of the package the Reds were offering for Span. Reflecting back on Santana, he was a 21 year old not close to ready for the majors when the Twins selected him. He was awful the first year and not at all useful the second. The Twins had tremendous patience. It is probably a good thing sites like this did not exist or he would certainly have been ripped regularly. He wasn't a full time starter until his 5th season (probably should have been third). Anyone have the patience to wait 3 years for a guy? The Twins could look for a younger guy in A-ball and bet on the upside. I think the Twins are taking some risk that some team will do similar with Adrian Salcedo this year.

Higher upside and higher risk than most pitchers in his price range. Still young. Makes more sense to me than signing a Guthrie or Feldman.

You may be correct about Rory Rhodes - going nowhere fast. Have you seen him play? Are there scouting reports classifying him as a non prospect? At 20, it is awful early to classify him. His power was referenced in the recent Beyond the Box Score podcast prospect discussion. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/11/21/3674350/btb-podcast-28-jonah-keri-jays-marlins-trade-loria-and-prospect-talk

I look forward to the return.

So what should they do? Not spend the money and give ABs to Drew Butera? What does that accomplish? I believe we are back where we started. My comment on Myers was to sign him to a one year deal and flip him at the trade deadline. That is what I would have done with Doumit instead of extending him.

The budget is not the reason I am concerned about the Twins adding players to a bad team that are highly likely to decline. They need to build a foundation and then add. Veteran players are an attempt to patch a crumbling foundation. You know the patch won't last long and will weaken over time. The patch does make things look a little better today. Adding veterans to a 2010 Twins team makes more sense.

Can we get rid of the **** on this site? It is reasonable to project Brett Myers having a useful season in 2012. You can look at the Bill James projection on fangraphs. He is projected as a reliever, but his K/W and ERA are good. The problem is how many seasons of Brett Myers the Twins will buy. Buying beyond his age 32 season would be a mistake. Below is data about how pitchers in the 2000s aged from age 31 to age 33. http://twinsdaily.com/entry.php?1968-Burton-What-s-is-the-Future-for-a-31-Year-Old-Set-Up-Man The connection to Doumit has to do with signing guys longer term in their 30s. I am working with data from baseball reference looking at 31 year old catchers from 2000-2010 corresponding to 33 year old catchers 2002-2012. Thus far I have found that there were 86 catchers aged 31 and 61 at age 33. Twenty five did not play their age 33 season in the majors. The data was skewed with several part time catchers that were not good enough to keep playing until age 33 skewing the plate appearance data towards the 31 year olds. I then looked at only at 31 years olds who had significant playing time (>80 games) and matching their age 33 season. Their average plate appearance and OPS are below. 31 year olds: 422 PA .750 OPS 33 year olds: 296 PA .721 OPS It makes sense for teams a few pieces away from 90 wins to take the risk that solid veterans like Doumit will decline slowly. I don't think it makes sense for the Twins to commit to multiyear contracts for any veteran over 30.

Doumit's value doubled the moment he signed that extension. If the need should arise, the Twins will get more for him now that he's been extended through 2014. You're flat-out wrong about his value. He's an incredibly valuable piece that 2/3rds of teams would love to have on their roster. Once you factor in his $7m salary for two years, you could probably bump that number to 28-29 teams. Henry Blanco made $1.2m last season and OPSed at .500. You're drastically undervaluing what backup catchers are paid. Backup catchers who OPS at .800 are a crown jewel of baseball; most teams can't find a starting catcher that OPSes at .700, much less .800. Given Mauer's questionable ability to play catcher more than 100 games a season, Doumit is just about the best player the Twins could have picked up last offseason. He has a bat and is an adequate catcher if he's only behind the dish 50 times a year. The Twins couldn't have played the Doumit situation any better than they played it. Signed him to a one year deal and then extended him right before the deadline (and they said that if a deal couldn't be reached, they would have moved him). I don't know what some of you expect from the Twins. They still need to field all nine positions and Doumit is dirt-cheap for his production level. He's a friggin' steal at $3.5m per year. Do you really expect fans to pay to watch Drew ****ing Butera (also known as the worst hitter in Major League Baseball) play 80 times a year? Doumit isn't preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. The Twins front office and management is preventing Parmelee from getting ABs. Instead of complaining about Doumit being on the team (a productive player at a necessary position playing for way less than he's worth), we should be asking why Span is still on the team because Denard, unlike Doumit, actually had value at last year's deadline. There are three players the team could trade to make room for Parmelee and all of them either make more money or carry much more value in trade than Ryan did last July and none of them double as a part-time catcher who OPSes around .800. I think our understanding of players decline is different. We already paid for his 800 OPS season. That was a different contract and has nothing to do with his 7 million. We also differ on our assessment of his ability to defend as a catcher and therefore being able to start in the NL. The shot at Butera was uncalled for. Butera has done nothing to deserve that shot. One can disagree with management choosing to put him on roster. One can be objective about his skill set without the shot. Using asterisks to avoid the administrator is classless.