jorgenswest

My apologies to the Urbina family.

If Baker will be 100% by opening day, how can they justify the risk of losing him? They must pick up his option.

A common thought among baseball fans like... "Since there are a larger number of starting pitchers on the free agent market, it is good for my team because we need pitching" I would like to challenge that argument. I do believe a larger market can be an advantage for some teams. I don't believe that a larger market can be good for every team that needs pitching. Many teams need pitching. If the market is an advantage for some, doesn't it need to be a disadvantage for others? In a large market both of these elements are in play... 1) There are more free agent pitchers available. Sounds good for teams like the Twins that have openings. 2) More teams have opening in their rotation. Sounds bad for a team like the Twins as their is more competition in the market. The starting pitching environment really remains constant. 1) The demand does not change from year to year. The number of jobs for starting pitchers is a constant. 2) The supply may change, but it can not be measured by counting the free agent pitchers. An accounting of all major league pitchers would be necessary. Is there an influx into the market of new pitchers that exceeds the number of starters no longer effective and exiting the market? I think it is more likely that the market will not help the Twins. With more buyers in the market, teams have to do something to become more attractive. How else attract the more desirable free agents? How can the Twins make themselves more attractive? These might be factors. - Dollars offered - Years offered - A teams record the previous season - The coaching staff and particularly pitching coach - The medical staff - Geographical location - Opportunities for endorsements - Facilities Would any objective look at these factors come to the conclusion that the Twins are an attractive place to sign as a free agent pitcher? I wouldn't think so. I think one could argue that the large number of job openings will actually be a detriment to the Twins ability to address pitching through free agency. I think they will have two options. 1) Sign the less desirable pitchers who are in decline and on the way out of the market. 2) Overpay for middling free agents risking crippling contract obligations in the future. So which teams will benefit from a larger market of starting pitching? We might look at previous years of large markets and see which teams came out ahead. That may be difficult to study due to sample size. We might try to project whether there will be an increase in pitching supply. That is not as simple as counting free agents, but it is the only way to truly measure the market.

A common thought among baseball fans like... "Since there are a larger number of starting pitchers on the free agent market, it is good for my team because we need pitching" I would like to challenge that argument. I do believe a larger market can be an advantage for some teams. I don't believe that a larger market can be good for every team that needs pitching. Many teams need pitching. If the market is an advantage for some, doesn't it need to be a disadvantage for others? In a large market both of these elements are in play... 1) There are more free agent pitchers available. Sounds good for teams like the Twins that have openings. 2) More teams have opening in their rotation. Sounds bad for a team like the Twins as their is more competition in the market. The starting pitching environment really remains constant. 1) The demand does not change from year to year. The number of jobs for starting pitchers is a constant. 2) The supply may change, but it can not be measured by counting the free agent pitchers. An accounting of all major league pitchers would be necessary. Is there an influx into the market of new pitchers that exceeds the number of starters no longer effective and exiting the market? I think it is more likely that the market will not help the Twins. With more buyers in the market, teams have to do something to become more attractive. How else attract the more desirable free agents? How can the Twins make themselves more attractive? These might be factors. - Dollars offered - Years offered - A teams record the previous season - The coaching staff and particularly pitching coach - The medical staff - Geographical location - Opportunities for endorsements - Facilities Would any objective look at these factors come to the conclusion that the Twins are an attractive place to sign as a free agent pitcher? I wouldn't think so. I think one could argue that the large number of job openings will actually be a detriment to the Twins ability to address pitching through free agency. I think they will have two options. 1) Sign the less desirable pitchers who are in decline and on the way out of the market. 2) Overpay for middling free agents risking crippling contract obligations in the future. So which teams will benefit from a larger market of starting pitching? We might look at previous years of large markets and see which teams came out ahead. That may be difficult to study due to sample size. We might try to project whether there will be an increase in pitching supply. That is not as simple as counting free agents, but it is the only way to truly measure the market.

I was surprised at the suggestion earlier that the Twins should consider extending Burton. They have him locked up next year. In two years he will be 33. On the other hand, he has been very valuable this year. My first thought was it was a horrible idea. Take his season next year at the bargain level. Don't buy his 33 year old season now! That was clearly the minority opinion. I went to Baseball Reference for clarity. I searched for every season pitched by a 31 year old set up man from 2000-2010. I sought pitchers with a workload of at least 60 games. I eliminated closers as they have a different work load. I eliminated guys with ERAs over 4 as most were on their way out of baseball. I found 28 pitchers. I eliminated pitchers jailed for attempted murder in their home country and was down to 27. This is their aggregate data in their 31 through 33 year old season. [TABLE=width: 932] Age W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 31 137 109 3.01 1902 0 59 1994 1687 727 666 166 711 99 1654 8256 1.20 7.6 0.7 3.2 7.5 2.3 32 97 95 3.95 1501 32 69 1622 1578 777 711 172 625 94 1326 7019 1.36 8.8 1.0 3.5 7.4 2.1 33 72 77 4.12 979 39 32 1199 1206 592 548 128 433 55 869 5164 1.37 9.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 2.0 [/TABLE] The data per pitcher [TABLE=width: 932] Age W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 31 5 4 3.01 70 0 2 74 62 27 25 6 26 4 61 306 1.20 7.6 0.7 3.2 7.5 2.3 32 4 4 3.95 56 1 3 60 58 29 26 6 23 3 49 260 1.36 8.8 1.0 3.5 7.4 2.1 33 3 3 4.12 36 1 1 44 45 22 20 5 16 2 32 191 1.37 9.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 2.0 [/TABLE] The drop in ERA is dramatic at 32. The drop in innings is dramatic at 33. Look at he drop in strikeouts. At age 33, 7 of the 27 pitched 60 games with an ERA under 4. Add one guy who became a starter to make 8 effective pitchers. Braden Looper at age 33 started 33 games and pitched 199 innings skewing the data further. Take him out and the average number of innings pitched falls to 38. I hope the Twins management is wise enough to keep his marvelous season in perspective. The likelihood of decline is far too great to sign him to an extension when he is already locked up next year. Isn't the risk of signing him greater than the risk of losing him at age 33?

I was surprised at the suggestion earlier that the Twins should consider extending Burton. They have him locked up next year. In two years he will be 33. On the other hand, he has been very valuable this year. My first thought was it was a horrible idea. Take his season next year at the bargain level. Don't buy his 33 year old season now! That was clearly the minority opinion. I went to Baseball Reference for clarity. I searched for every season pitched by a 31 year old set up man from 2000-2010. I sought pitchers with a workload of at least 60 games. I eliminated closers as they have a different work load. I eliminated guys with ERAs over 4 as most were on their way out of baseball. I found 28 pitchers. I eliminated pitchers jailed for attempted murder in their home country and was down to 27. This is their aggregate data in their 31 through 33 year old season. [TABLE=width: 932] Age W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 31 137 109 3.01 1902 0 59 1994 1687 727 666 166 711 99 1654 8256 1.20 7.6 0.7 3.2 7.5 2.3 32 97 95 3.95 1501 32 69 1622 1578 777 711 172 625 94 1326 7019 1.36 8.8 1.0 3.5 7.4 2.1 33 72 77 4.12 979 39 32 1199 1206 592 548 128 433 55 869 5164 1.37 9.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 2.0 [/TABLE] The data per pitcher [TABLE=width: 932] Age W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB 31 5 4 3.01 70 0 2 74 62 27 25 6 26 4 61 306 1.20 7.6 0.7 3.2 7.5 2.3 32 4 4 3.95 56 1 3 60 58 29 26 6 23 3 49 260 1.36 8.8 1.0 3.5 7.4 2.1 33 3 3 4.12 36 1 1 44 45 22 20 5 16 2 32 191 1.37 9.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 2.0 [/TABLE] The drop in ERA is dramatic at 32. The drop in innings is dramatic at 33. Look at he drop in strikeouts. At age 33, 7 of the 27 pitched 60 games with an ERA under 4. Add one guy who became a starter to make 8 effective pitchers. Braden Looper at age 33 started 33 games and pitched 199 innings skewing the data further. Take him out and the average number of innings pitched falls to 38. I hope the Twins management is wise enough to keep his marvelous season in perspective. The likelihood of decline is far too great to sign him to an extension when he is already locked up next year. Isn't the risk of signing him greater than the risk of losing him at age 33?

They can guarantee Baker by picking up his option. If he can produce 2 WAR, he will exceed the value of his option.

I think everyone would agree that the Twins greatest need is starting pitching. In order to get major league starting pitching, the Twins probably need to offer starting pitching prospects. Look at all of the Oakland deals where they traded established pitching for pitching prospects. The Twins don't have starting pitching prospects to offer. Conversely, the most attractive way to get starting pitching prospects is to trade major league ready starting pitching. Twins certainly don't have starters to offer. So what to do with Span (or Willingham, Morneau, Doumit)? By 2014 an outfield of Arcia, Revere and Hicks can be foreseen. Parmelee can be projected to help next year. Willingham, Morneau and Doumit will be in decline, The Twins probably can't get significant starting pitching for them. Maybe they can fill another need. Middle infield is a need. The Pirates are an example of a possible trade partner. This is assuming that the Pirates believe in Brock Holt and also realize that his only position is 2B. A parallel trade that might make sense to both teams could be Span for Neil Walker. I suppose Revere for Holt is also a parallel trade of position players at a similar age. The Twins might spend the entire off season trying to trade position players for pitching and come up empty. They came up empty attempting to get pitching this summer. Maybe they need to adjust the target and try to fill a different need.

I think everyone would agree that the Twins greatest need is starting pitching. In order to get major league starting pitching, the Twins probably need to offer starting pitching prospects. Look at all of the Oakland deals where they traded established pitching for pitching prospects. The Twins don't have starting pitching prospects to offer. Conversely, the most attractive way to get starting pitching prospects is to trade major league ready starting pitching. Twins certainly don't have starters to offer. So what to do with Span (or Willingham, Morneau, Doumit)? By 2014 an outfield of Arcia, Revere and Hicks can be foreseen. Parmelee can be projected to help next year. Willingham, Morneau and Doumit will be in decline, The Twins probably can't get significant starting pitching for them. Maybe they can fill another need. Middle infield is a need. The Pirates are an example of a possible trade partner. This is assuming that the Pirates believe in Brock Holt and also realize that his only position is 2B. A parallel trade that might make sense to both teams could be Span for Neil Walker. I suppose Revere for Holt is also a parallel trade of position players at a similar age. The Twins might spend the entire off season trying to trade position players for pitching and come up empty. They came up empty attempting to get pitching this summer. Maybe they need to adjust the target and try to fill a different need.

I don't see the match. The Mets look to keep their budget at 90 million. They will look to trade older players for younger players under control. They can't trade prospects to get Span without increasing the budget. Anyone would look at the Mets roster and target Niese. Niese is 25. He has a very reasonable contract through 2016! with options for 2017 and 2018. He is the kind of player the Mets need. The Mets realize he is their most valuable property. I suppose some team could blow them away with an offer of prospects to get him. Would you? Daniel Murphy is 27. Flawed defensively at 2B. Still under team control. He is a more reasonable target that might fit the Twins needs. I would guess that the Mets would prefer Revere in a more parallel deal. Both are somewhat flawed players under team control.

WPA is more a metric than a statistic. RBI and certainly GWRBI would be examples of statistics with marginal predictive value. The value of a metric is often the predictive value. Therefore it is not surprising that many sabrmetric geeks give little attention to WPA.

He is 31. As a set up reliever, he will never make outrageous dollars. Why would we buy his 33 year old season now? It is more likely that he will be out of the majors by the end of the 2014 season than it is likely he will put up two more seasons like his 2012 effort. The Twins must not make long term decisions based on a single aberrant season.

Is Carroll part of the solution towards rebuilding this franchise? I don't think so. How about Florimon, Dozier and Escobar? Probably not. Florimon - There is no reason to expect that he will have any value at the plate. Is anyone concerned that his defensive metrics are very poor after 300+ innings at SS? His reputation coming to the organization is a flashy and erratic defender. He is too old to be a prospect. Dozier - there is a chance he might be able to put up an acceptable OBP. The minor scouting reports about his defense look accurate. It is acceptable at best. Sounds like a player who can have value in a utility role. Too old to be a prospect. Escobar - He comes with an excellent defensive reputation from his time in the Chicago organization. If he is the real deal and a top defensive SS, his weak bat may be OK. He must be an elite defender. His age gives him some upside. It doesn't seem likely that any of these 4 is the long term answer. Carroll certainly isn't and should not get significant playing time next year. I don;t think any other team would be inept enough to take his contract, but I would try to trade him. I would like to find out if either Escobar or Florimon are elite defenders. The early metrics at SS and defensive reports from the minors suggest that Escobar may have the edge. So... Trade Carroll Find a 2B Give Escobar an extended shot at SS (or Florimon is Twins scouts see something other scouts and metrics do not) See if Dozier can find his bat in a utility role.

Top of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end... Does it matter anymore? It used to be the the top guy would get the ball on his day and back end guys would miss starts. Teams would use the all star break to get an extra start for a top guy. Other than the Tigers, teams don't do this anymore. The Twins don't. They did the opposite at the all star break to give Diamond a rest. Somehow it would be good to get 10 WAR out of their starting pitchers next year. Does it matter if they get 2 WAR from 5 slots? There are guys available that can be counted on for 2 WAR. It may cost 5 mil/1 WAR. I think Baker is a guy that can provide 2 WAR over 2/3 a season. They can guarantee his spot by picking up the option or negotiating now. Diamond or Deduno? Maybe with luck. That still leaves two guys to find. I should concede now that while during the season a front line pitcher no longer matters as much, it will matter in the playoffs. I hope we have such problems next year.

A deeper group of pitchers goes two ways. There will also be more teams losing pitching and in the market. In this environment, I don't think it is as good for the Twins. with increased competition for free agent pitching, players will have more options. Why would they sign with the Twins? If the terms of the contract are the same, I think there would be at least 20 organizations that would be chosen over the Twins. It might be closer to 28. Objectively, how confident would you be in the Twins chances next year? How much confidence do you have in the pitching coach? the medical staff? The only way the Twins can persuade them is by overpaying in terms of years or dollars. Doing so will give the Twins the increased risk of a bad contract. The only way to avoid this is to let the market play out. It will be frustrating. We will see pitchers sign with other teams. Someone will write that the Twins could have signed "Pitcher X" for 30 mil over 3 years. Why didn't they? They must be cheap. In truth, "Pitcher X" only signs with the Twins if they add a 4th year or 15%. There is no easy way out of this hole. Giving bad contracts to decline phase pitchers could delay the turn around. I would stay out of the market until the end.

We can offer, but why would he sign? The only way I think he will return to the Twins next year is by picking up the option.

Should we be concerned that his defensive metrics thus far are not very encouraging? Should we be concerned that he had a fielding percentage below .950 in the minors? Should we be concerned about his poor batting record in the minors? Should we be concerned that his age gives him no upside? Maybe the Twins scouts see something not shown in the data. Maybe the other teams didn't see what they see. I think they are going with the wrong all glove/no bat option at shortstop.

I don't know anything about his progress but if he is close to ready someone will give him near the 9 million option figure. Even with missing games most seasons his WAR still averages about 3 per year during his last 5 seasons. His WPA also holds strong. This is true using fangraphs or baseball reference's calculation. In 21 starts in 2011, his WAR was well above 2 with either calculation (4.2, 2.8) . His WPA was 1.55. If the Twins assess he is healthy enough to provide 2 WAR, they need to pick up the option. The going rate for starting pitching will be above 5 million per 1 WAR. If the Twins believe in his progress, they must pick up his option. If they don't believe in his health, why sign him?

The likelihood that Liriano will be in the 2013 rotation has not changed with his trade to the White Sox.

No guarantees with any pitcher on the list. Combine this list with their aging offense and it is hard to imagine they will improve on this year's record. On the other hand, this year's rotation combined for -4 WAR. If they can turn that into +6 WAR next year, that is a swing of 10. If they can acquire three guys that can provide a total of 6, I think the right mix of the current group can provide the 0 additional WAR necessary to achieve that level.

Guerra's ERA is bad, but his strike out numbers are solid in AAA. Reliver ERA is not very reliable as an indicator. His young age gives him upside. I think he will have a better career than the other pitchers on the list. I hope it is with Minnesota. Glad you mentioned Romero.

Not enough at bats to know if Dozier can have a Jason Bartlett type career. I don't know if the Twins will have the patience to find out. Dozier will improve, but maybe not enough. Worst case long term is if Jamey Carroll is the starting shortstop next year. Florimon is older than Dozier. He is not a long term solution. Escobar's young age gives him the most upside but it may not be up enough for his weak bat. Dozier is the best hope for league average SS performance in 2014-2015, let's hope he is up to the task and finds a way to increase his walk rate and cut down on defensive mistakes.

An outfield with Parmelee and Willingham in the corners is probably unwise. Doumit, Willingham and Morneau are on the wrong side of 30. Doumit and Morneau have history of health trouble. I think the three will all benefit from a reduction in playing time to make sure Parmelee gets significant playing time. It will also guarantee a good bat on the bench when all are healthy. This year's bench leaves no options. It usually consists of Butera, Casilla and a player on their 8th day of a day to day injury.

Lets's hope Escobar is the real deal with the glove at shortstop. There is a place in baseball for elite defending shortstops batting ninth. I don't know if his performance will match his reputation.

Lopez hasn't played SS since 2004. If you can't play SS, you either need to hit well enough to start at 2B/3B or you don't have a job (see Luke Hughes). After over 4000 plate appearances, Lopez has an OPS+ of 84. Assuming he can regain that level of offense with adequate defense, is that what we want from our starting 2B next year?