jorgenswest

Are the Twins planning for the best Rochester option? Is Hernandez stretched out or is he using his early AAA starts to get stretched out? On the 40 man, why not Gibson? Outside the 40 man, they could have planned for Walters. Are they planning or just hoping? DeVries arm trouble isn't recent news. They should have set up Rochester with the plan in mind. Did they?

Have the Twins learned? They need to put DeVries on the DL and bring someone up. Otherwise he will have a short start or won't be able to go. Then they will spot start someone like Duensing who isn't stretched out. the bullpen will be overworked and an extra pitcher will be needed. They only risk one start by putting him on the DL. Diamond is in line to take the start following Sunday. According to Mike Berardino, Ryan doesn't want to discuss contingency plans. I hope it's the discussion part and not the planning part that he is avoiding.

Didn't mean to infer panic... just patience. It could be a 240/320/370 year. That is based on his minor league performance and has nothing to do with game 1. No reason to panic. That's normal. I would expect him to approach his minor league level (career 800 OPS) as he gains experience. It may be in his second 1000 plate appearances and not his first 1000.

There is probably a way to study where the extra runs came. It might be 5 in the first inning. We would probably give a couple back when a couple guys are on base mid game and 8-9 are due up.

I don't think that is true any longer. The study that is often referred to used data from 2005-2009. Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: Promoting Prospects At that time, the Twins were winning and healthy. They did not need to rush prospects. Had the time frame been 2000-2004 or 2010 to current, I think the results would be quite different. The Twins had young teams in the early 2000s and recent injuries and poor play has resulted in numerous call ups. If you read the study, the Twins were among the better teams in average WARP over the first two years for the players they did call up. Only Oakland(7) and Cincinnati(6) had more players than the Twins(5) that performed well upon entering the majors. While the Twins did not call up a lot of guys the ones they did call up did well. Somehow this study has become an indictment of the Twins development of players from 2005-2009.

Hicks is projected to have a slightly better OPS than Revere, Carroll or Mastroianni. It is unlikely any of the 3 will be in the 700s. Overall, they will all be close with Hicks having a little more power and the others a little more on base. If Hicks is given a chance, he should grow well into the 700s in the next few years while Revere and Mastro remain static and Carroll goes into coaching.

I am not sure there would be significant difference had I used Bill James, Marcel, Oliver, or Steamer. I decided to choose one before I looked at the data. Otherwise, I might pick the one that happens to have Dozier lower and some of the others higher to better attain the results I expected. Dozier's OPS projections range from 646 to 672. ZIPS had him at 649. Willingham's were 816 to 833. ZIPS had him at 822. ZIPS was least favorable to Doumit and Morneau. I don't think the results would be significantly different had I chosen different projections. The projections seem low, but three of those players are in the decline phase of their careers with some injury history.

Roenicke had 8 wild pitches last year. Only Diamond on the Twins had more at 10 while facing many more batters. By rate, Gray had a similar rate of 1 wild pitch per 47-48 batters. Gray is probably a good comp for Roenicke. Where was Burton? Roenicke is the last guy you want in the game with runners on base.

I appreciated the increase in baseball discussion and content. Taking specific events in the game (batting order, bullpen use, pinch hitting...) and expanding them to the general kept me listening. I hope this is a direction that will continue. ... but "Progression to the mean" ... c'mon Regression to the Mean | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

I tried to study the impact of the batting order change using ZIPS projections. I was a little disappointed in the results. I used the average plate appearances by batting order position in the AL last year. The second spot had 103 more plate appearances on average than the 8th spot. That made sense as it is close to 6x18. I then compared a Dozier with 735 plate appearances to a Dozier with 632 plate appearances. (Yes... I know he is not going to play 162 games and neither are any of the others but this should give me the extreme.) I added to Dozier's 632 plate appearances all of the increases of the other 6 players using yesterday's batting order to compare with Dozier in the 2 hole. Using ZIPS Dozier batting 2nd 247/349/300 Dozier 8th (plus others) 249/359/305 This difference over that many plate appearances amounts to about 5 runs. Darn! I expected more. Why was the change so small? The batting average hardly changes because six of the guys getting more at bats (Willingham, Plouffe, Doumit and Parmelee) are projected to have about the same average as Dozier. Mauer's extra 18 plate appearances helps some but not much in the context of 735 plate appearances. I know the study has flaws - If Dozier isn't hitting second, a few less outs will be made in that spot and overall the team should have a few more plate appearances on the season. That can't account for a significant change. - I used ZIPS. 2013 ZiPS Projections ? Minnesota Twins | FanGraphs Baseball Maybe ZIPS does not project the Twins hitters well or over projects Dozier. - It isn't realistic that the best hitters will play 162 games. They will be replaced by guys that are not much different than Dozier and reduce the impact of the extra at bats. I am disappointed. I thought I would see a difference of over 20 runs and then scale it back due to playing time. It didn't happen. There are many studies written about optimizing a batting order. A well optimized lineup is shown to be better than a poorly optimized order. Moving just one guy in the context on this team and their ZIPS projections didn't make difference I expected. I will take the 5 or so runs though.

Thanks Seth. The Twins will have some decisions to make when Diamond, Swarzak, Wood and Deduno are healthy. My hope is they keep the pitchers with the upside. Wood and Roenicke have little. They should have taken Wood off the 40 instead of the 25 year old Burnett. I hope they don't choose Wood or Roenicke over Pressly. While any reliever can have a good ERA in a given season like Roenicke last year, I don't think either is part of the solution.

I believe he has one option left after signing a major league contract coming out of the draft. If that is the case, he is more likely to be useful to the club in 2014 than some on the 40 man roster. Drew Butera and Tim Wood should be considered.

Spring training matters. Observation of the approach at the plate, the command on the mound, the work ethic in practice, leadership, confidence... All of those matter. Your observations about a day in spring training much more valuable descriptions of the progress than a box score. There isn't enough data even it were regular season to draw any conclusions. The lack of data is compounded by the varying context of the opponent. No one can say spring training does not matter. It does. It is the data that can not be used to make inferences of the future. Returning to record in the spring. Maybe it is possible that an extremely bad or good record in the spring might tell something about the season. I am confident the same is not true about individual data. Do spring training records mean anything? - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

Somehow the Twins didn't utilize the talent they saw in the 22 year old they brought to the majors. It is either an error in talent assessment at the time of call up or talent development by not allowing him real time in AAA. I hope he does well with the Blue Jay organization.

There may be a positive side effect. Players must resent when teams mess with their service time and play the three week game. Maybe it gets noticed by guys that will be drafted into the organization. Maybe they are more likely to take a reasonable contract when the Twins don't have a track record of messing around on the other end by playing with service time.

Maybe the Twins should look to platoon. Below are links to two articles about how platooning was significant in the A's turn around in 2012. Oakland?s Platoon Advantage | FanGraphs Baseball How the A's built a surprise contender - Joe Lemire - SI.com Parmelee's splits in the minors were extreme in the last two years. Why not platoon? Of course, the Twins could have planned for this during the offseason. While Parmelee's splits make him a good candidate. Ramirez may not be a very good match. He strikes out against lefty and righty at the same rate.

thanks 10 pages... I actually considered which forum and decided that my main thought was about the Twins decision making. My apologies to Dave. I must not have made that clear in my original post.

The Twins had the benefit of the reports from their medical staff. I could have trusted their assessment rather than question their decision not to pick up option.

That WAR value does not factor in the studies since 2008 on Pitch f/x and pitch framing. Since 2011 several studies looking have shown Doumit to be a significant liability at catcher. Mike Fasts original study is linked below. Though the Twins and several on this board disregard the study and the several since, it shows that any offensive value he brings to the plate is negated by his inability to frame pitches. Baseball Prospectus | Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation

I advocated for the Twins to pick up his option during the offseason. I strongly felt he was a much better option that committing 10 million to Correia. Clearly, I was wrong about Baker. Good decision Twins.

It only makes sense to have an extra corner outfielder in a platoon. Otherwise, there isn't enough playing time. Looking at Parmelee's splits over the last two years in the minors and majors, a platoon should be considered.

Both are very poor options at catcher. Do you want the league bottom bat or the league bottom glove? Is it possible that the advantage Doumit clearly has in the four plate appearances he gets as the starting catcher is all given back on defense? While Doumit could start on nearly anyone's fantasy team, Butera's defense might give the Twins a better chance to win.

I recall being excited about both Banks and Parks. Two high school first rounders that didn't meet expectations. Pitchers and catchers are probably the most difficult to project as high school seniors into the major leagues.

I realize I am only adding to the likely irrelevant discussion about who is on the opening day roster. A roster that will likely be different by two weeks into the season. I start with these assumptions. - All teams will carry at least 11 pitchers. - All teams will carry a starter at every position as well as a backup catcher, middle infielder and outfielder. That is 11 position players. 22 players and the following options for the three spots. - 12th pitcher - 13th pitcher - third catcher - sixth infielder - fifth outfielder - bench bat only The Twins poor starters will drive the need for the 12 pitcher. Conceding the 12th pitcher, that leaves Wilkin Ramirez (or Brandon Boggs), Drew Butera and Eduardo Escobar (or Pedro Florimon) fighting for the two spots. The case for Ramirez. I start assuming Mastroianni is the 4th OF. Ramirez doesn't play CF well enough. I think he can help this year in a platoon with Parmelee against left handed pitching. Ramirez was once a fair prospect. He is still relatively young. It might be a good match for him. Whoever he starts either Parmelee, Doumit, Morneau or Mauer will be on the bench and available to pinch hit. The case for Butera. His defense is significantly better than Doumit's. He would be an asset to the young pitching staff. He would really be the back up catcher while Doumit fits in a role similar to Thome's The case for Escobar. From a position stand point, it is hard to see a role and playing time for a second utility player. However, he has a good glove and is the youngest of the options. If Plouffe is not 100%, it may be necessary to keep a second utility infielder. Otherwise, it is hard to imagine a role. Is Florimon's glove clearly better than Escobar's? If not, he should be included in this discussion. I think Ramirez in a platoon role and Butera's glove can contribute more to the team than carrying both Florimon and Escobar. I have more hope for Escobar long term. If his glove is on par with Florimon, I would send Florimon down. ... and then someone will get nicked up in the first week of the season and the platooning in RF will have to end when the Twins need to bring up that extra infielder. This is not my attempt to predict what the Twins will do. Rather it is to start a discussion about what the Twins should do. 12th pitcher, platoon RF, backup catcher or additional utility infielder? Pick three.