jorgenswest

It took a Berrios level prospect to get Miller and Soria. Benoit will be less but it isn't going to drop from top 50 prospect to C prospect or package of C prospects/ bench guys. You can't get a good 8th inning guy cheap. If Benoit is that guy, expect to pay. If he is cheap, he isn't seen by other teams as a good late inning guy.

If Benoit is one of few available late innings relievers, the Twins will need to overpay due to demand. The Twins need an 8th inning guy with Fien moving to the 7th. Is this the 8th inning guy that is going to make a difference? If so, pay up. Someone will. I am not confident that Benoit is that guy, but I haven't seen him throw a pitch this year. Any move now will certainly be expensive in cost. The Padres have time to wait for a better deal. The Twins can also wait out the market and see who is left on the 31st. A few teams made moves to acquire 8th innings guys last year in July. They had a very expensive prospect cost.

Consistency can only be seen with a skilled eye watching and working with a player daily. If data were the judge, no player in baseball would be consistent in the sample size used above. It would just be expected variation. The same consistent approach can lead to significantly varied results in partial season samples. Does Rosario have a a consistent approach that will lead to continued success over time? The Twins staff seeing him every day can make that call. I do think there will be combinations of Twin starter and opposing starter where Arcia would give the Twins a better chance of winning than Rosario. The same can be said of Arcia and Hunter.

I think Molitor can pick the right combination of Twin starter and opposing starter to get Arcia a few starts in the OF every week. I am would avoid starting him with Hughes pitching or against an opposing lefty. Late innings with the lead they can sub him out. From there, his performance earns him more time or return to AAA.

Arcia needed to show he is healthy. It took some time, but I think it is clear he is now healthy.

Pelfrey matched Price through 7. Very good start from Pelfrey.

The Twins shortstop performance was 6th in the AL through Sunday. Catcher, Firstbase and DH were near the bottom. The Twins addressed DH. The pen needs addressing either from within or the outside. If they go outside to get any player of real value it is going to cost real prospects. If Benoit is valued around the league, he is going to cost more than a C prospect or bench player or package of redundant prospects that the other team could never fit on their 40. If the Twins get Benoit without giving up much, it will be a huge red flag that the rest of baseball doesn't see him as an asset in the pen. There are many teams that can afford a few months of his salary that need help in the pen. it isn't going to be about money. It will be about confidence in second half performance based on first half performance and peripherals. Believe in Benoit? What is the best the Twins should offer? If you can't come up with better than C prospects, you are not a believer. To be realistic, any package should include only one player on the 40.

Is he on his last option? If so, it is time to find a role. That role might begin as a platoon player. After that it will be up to him to earn more by his performance. There should be no guaranteed starting role upon his return. He has to earn it and he has to show it in the majors.

Plenty of at bats for Arcia and Plouffe. We need them both. We need a bat on the bench to pinch hit and his addition will make that possible. Arcia can get one start a series for Hunter and at least another start weekly from Mauer, Plouffe, Sano, Hicks or Rosario. His bat will determine if he gets more time. The bench will always be better as a result.

I think Pelfrey needs a big start tonight. If he has another short start, he needs to go to the pen. The Twins need to win games and not worry about preserving his marginal trade value. I think he will step up tonight. If not, May needs to take his spot after the break.

Let's assume anyone valued by the Twins is also valued by the many other teams in contention. Let's also assume that it will take more than a C prospect or package of C prospects to get any player of value. Is he someone you would trade Walker or Gonsalves to acquire?

i wonder how other old San Diego relievers have done switching to the AL.

There is no evidence that Fryer would hit better than Herrmann in the second half. A singles laden AAA first half does not overshadow a career of weak hitting. Herrmann will benefit from playing regularly and if needed to return will be sharper with the bat. I do think Fryer is better at blocking pitches. I will take the under on 33% caught stealing rate that Herrmann put up though. Herrmann was better in the minors. Neither has shown good framing numbers. The greatest evidence that Fryer is not a good defensive catcher is the number of times he has been available and unclaimed. A good defensive catcher is hard to find and will be claimed even if they can't hit. They bring value that is sometimes unrecognized by fans. Butera was DFA'd at the same time Fryer was last year. The Dodgers found interest in Butera. There was no interest in Fryer. The Royals traded for Butera when Angels DFA'd and kept him over Kratz. If you are a good defensive catcher someone will want you.

The Twins can not count on Walker or Kepler to arrive and produce. Expect them to go back and forth between the majors and AAA the first few years. Arcia is needed in RF next year.

Timing is the issue. The Twins have a lot of money tied into the decline of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. Berrios, May and Gibson need spots. Next winter looks to be a great year to get a top pitcher. The Twins are not in a position to add to the front end with so much money committed to the back end. If they had been patient, they could be going into this offseason with the dollars to address the top of the rotation at a time when the prospects have just arrived.

BABIP stabilizes at 2.5 seasons for batters and 8 seasons for starting pitchers. Mauer's BABIP over last 2.5 seasons is .351. If you are concerned that they weren't full seasons, his BABIP in 2012 was .364. A BABIP in the high 300s for a hitter who has established high BABIPS previously should be an encouraging sign. Is he going to end at 350 this year? Probably not. Too much ground to gain. There is a good chance that he will put up that level for the remainder of the season though.

Is it possible that indicates that he is hitting the ball hard? I think it is a good sign that he is healthy and seeing the ball well. His career BABIP entering the season was around .350. It was .383 in 2013. Seeing the ball well and making good hard contact is a skill for batters. That skill is shown in their BABIP.

The fans chose Altuve. The players chose Kipnis. It is hard to argue with the players choice and the fans chose a good representative. Yost had spots for two position players after the players ballot. He needs another catcher. Martin. That leaves one position player. He needs to take a Red Sox player. Buchholz? Holt as the last position player? I think Holt helps the team more.

Mauer needs a bigger second half. If the Twins are going to close ground on their opponents in the corners, it can only come at 1B and DH. Sano might be the answer at DH. We need Mauer to put up at least league average 1B production.

Glad they are looking at internal options before giving up a prospect at the deadline for a rental LOOGY.

How do the Twins perform on the corners compared to other team in the AL Central? Previous: Up the Middle First Base (ranked by wRC+) Tigers (1st) 176 Sox (2nd) 129 Royals (8th) 118 Indians(10th) 110 Twins (11th) 98 Cabrera is a monster. Abreau is very good. Santana will be better. I think Mauer can close the gap and approach Hosmer’s production in the second half. It is hard to imagine the Twins climbing out of fifth at 1B though. They really need Mauer to be a league average 1B. can he approach a 115-120 wRC+ in the second half? He hasn’t been there since 2013. On the farm: Vargas is back in AA trying to cut down his chase rate. If Mauer is injured it would likely be Sano or Plouffe that fill in at this point. Thirdbase Royals (3rd) 119 Twins (4th) 115 Tigers (13th) 76 Indians(14th) 75 Sox(15th) 75 Defensively: Royals(5th), Twins(7), Indians(9), Tigers(10), White Sox (13) Plouffe has turned out to be a very solid player. He and Dozier are fruits of a bad team that gave them plenty of at bats before they started making consistent contributions to the team. Moustakas is better and needed an even longer stretch before contributing. On the farm: Sano was just called up. The Twins need both Sano and Plouffe in the line up. Jose Martinez play 3B for Rochester. Left Field Royals (2nd) 127 Indians (3rd) 124 Tigers (4th) 117 Twins (10th) 85 Sox(14th) 73 Defensively: Royals(1), Tigers(6), Twins(9), White Sox(10), Indians (11) Rosario just surpassed Escobar in plate appearances by a Twin left fielder. Rosario’s performance would put the Twins a couple of slots up and near league average. He also boosts them defensively over the utility infielders and Arcia. The Twins can expect an improvement from this position in the second half of the season. There is still a significant gap to the production of Gordon, Brantley and Cespedes though. On the farm: Kepler is in AA and may get a shot. Walker continues to produce but isn’t on the 40. Arcia is heating up in AAA. Right Field Tigers(1) 153 Indians(9) 107 Twins(10) 103 Sox(12) 94 Royals(15) 50 Defensively: Royals(2), Tigers(5), Twins(9), Indians(10), White Sox(15) J.D. Martinez was a waiver claim at the same time the Twins were counting on Bartlett and Kubel. Hunter has performed just below league average in the field and at the plate. Can he keep going? It is hard to imagine that he will improve in the second half. Royals should close the gap with a healthy Rios. On the farm: Arcia could make a difference. He might help the Twins improve their overall production in RF if used well. A rested Hunter may perform better. I am not suggesting an all out platoon, but I do think Molitor can find a spot twice a week where Arcia can help. Harrison is doing well in AA. Designated Hitter Royals(5th) 122 Indians(8th) 113 Sox(10th) 97 Twins(13th) 89 Tigers(15th) 77 A healthy Martinez may flip the Tigers from last to first in DH production. Sano can make a huge impact for the Twins. Morales may regress. This is one area where AL Central teams can close the gap. Twins Outlook The Twins need to maintain their production from at 3B and RF. They really can’t expect better unless strategic use of Arcia inches them up the RF ranks. They can expect regular use of Rosario and Sano to improve production in LF and DH. They need Mauer to close the gap at 1B also. A 120 wRC+ is reasonable and his production could be the key to the Twins chances in the second half. Sano’s production in July can save the Twins from trading a prospect for a temporary solution at DH.

May can take Pressly's role for now.

There are only 12 pitchers on the roster. I think Arcia can help. He can start against a righty for Hunter once a series in attempt to keep Hunter strong throughout year. He can start for Plouffe with Sano at 3B once every couple of series. The Twins don't have a threat on the bench with the bat to pinch hit for Suzuki. Arcia's return would give them that option. He might be more useful than Robinson or perhaps Santana.

I think the Twins need to plan in shorter slots. Right now they are set with 12 pitchers through the all star break. They need to continue to reassess. Hopefully May gets back in the rotation and they take a look at a few Rochester options before trading prospects for relievers. I hope we see Achter, Meyer and Tonkin again. They might look at Rogers as a LOOGY. I don't think Atchison is a solution. Seems likely that the Royals will find a trade partner for Fraser outside of Detroit and Minnesota.

These kinds of discussions put the Twins in a position where any trade they make is viewed as a bad one. Brewers have two solid assets in Smith and Lucroy that they don't need to trade. They will need both next year. They can afford to extend Lucroy. Someone can come in and blow them away, but it is going to be a bad deal for that team in the long run. I don't want to be the team that offers May or Berrios plus others to get Lucroy. I don't want to trade Polanco or Kepler for a LOOGY.