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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. Like the deal. I thought Lynn would be an August waiver wire claim. In the era where teams platooned he would be the right handed hitting half of the platoon. Not sure if there is a space for a guy who has done really well against lefties but the Twins had trouble with left handed pitching this year.
  2. Maybe Astudillo will get a second chance to show he can catch with the injuries to Sawyer and Graterol. Rupp is no longer on the team. The only other option on the team is Jordan Pacheco. They might also consider moving Navaretto up a level.
  3. Nine Twins have played DH. Mauer and Morrison have a 50% share. Grossman, Sano, Rosario and Garver have most of the other 50%.
  4. The front office really handicapped the Twins in this game. It is hard enough to beat the Red Sox with 25 much less 23.
  5. Duran appears to be the key here for the Twins. If he was available in the draft this summer at age 20 I don’t think he lasts until pick 75.
  6. At the end of the season it will be interesting to see any shifts in the swing level data as well as the strike out walk data. Until then I am disregarding any partial stats and listening closely to anything Parker has to contribute in his video studies. Thanks Parker.
  7. Back to then what... I don’t think the Twins should plan on Gordon being ready opening day next year. I would hope for June 1 giving him two months to show that he has command of the AAA strike zone. Assuming Dozier is moved, I would use Polanco at 2B and Adrianza at SS the last two months. I guess I would bring up Petit to back them up. An out of the box move would be to play Rosario at 2B and add Wade to play LF.
  8. I am biased by watching several Mets games the last two years. I can’t imagine Cabrera anywhere other than 2B at this point. He has no lateral movement so it doesn’t work at 2B either but the shorter throw allows him to play deeper and gives him more time to go side to side. You are right though. Hernandez is a 2B only. Cabrera played shortstop some last year (poorly according to metric). Awful metrics at 2B this year. Bad deal for Phillies but Dozier was not a fit.
  9. Any trade of Gibson must improve the 2019 team.
  10. The Twins should have been in on the Phillies deal. I think Dozier would have been a better option for them.
  11. As long as we are hoping, my preference is to hope that Sano shows us he is that third baseman.
  12. I think the pitcher was they key for them. He may have had more upside than any other player they were offered for Escobar.
  13. I guess you would make the qualifying offer. Fair enough. I am torn. I was incorrect about the 50. If Escobar signs for less than 50 million it would be after the competitive balance picks in round 2. This year those picks were 75 to 78. Of the over 200 players drafted in those slots a total of 8 have a career WAR of better than 20. Two others had good stretches in their career coming in above 10. That is about a 5% chance of getting a good player. The bar of a comp pick in that range isn't a very high bar to clear in a trade.
  14. They have two very young players in A ball with upside and a former college OF whose numbers look like Lamonte Wade. The Twins can only control keeping him and offering a qualifying offer or trading him for the best the market has to offer. I would have been prepared to make the QO but the return is probably better than a comp pick in the 50s. I would think either of the two younger players is close to that comp pick and getting both lottery tickets exceeds that value.
  15. I am assuming they have listened to all of the interest and are confident they are not going to get a better return. They could wait other teams out and hope they get desperate but you can also get caught holding an expiring contract that way.
  16. Wow! In no way did I suggest that comparing across teams was of any value. I really don’t appreciate that characterization. It is only of value here for those who suggest that Wilson’s poor bat has had a huge impact on the Ywons record. They are 18-17 when Wilson is the catcher. Suppose Garver had 6 of this starts and he was 15-14. Do we really think they would have gone 6-0 in those other games and net 3 wins? Let’s talk specifically yesterday. I don’t think Gibson gets to the 8th inning with Garver catching. His pitch count would likely have been higher. Do the Twins win that game needing to get two clean innings out of a bullpen where Hildenberger wasn’t available? The guy can’t hit. He shouldn’t be on the team next year. He should starting closer to 40% of the games than 47-48%. He isn’t a zero though. He brings value and contributes significantly to preventing runs. He is not the reason the Twins are 5 games below .500 and it would be hard to argue that giving a Garver 6 of this games would have shifted the bottom line at all.
  17. Just a result. There’s seems to be a narrative that the Twins poor record is in part due to playing Wilson and that his poor bat has hurt the team a lot more than his defensive contribution. It may be hurting the team but it is hard to find support for that statement in the results. I don’t think we have any tools to measure the real impact of the catcher to preventing runs. Again I appreciate Wilson’s contribution to the team. I think he will have had a lasting impact on Garver, Berrios and Gibson.
  18. How much do we expect him to catch? In the same stretch where Garver caught 8 of 16, Perez caught 10 of 16. On the season Perez has started 61.7% of Royal games. He has started 38 of 73 since the injury to Castro. I argue that he should have caught the 5th starter more so he was closer to 60% but I also acknowledge there is a lot to learn at catcher. How much would that shift the record? The Twins record by starting catcher... Castro 7-12 Garver 23-24 Wilson 18-17
  19. A good read... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/41401/rubbing-mud-cant-help-falling-in-love-with-ryan-pressly/ Should the Twins trade Pressly? Yes. If the trade makes them better in 2019. Any trade of players they control next year needs to make them better next year.
  20. Worry? No. A trade like this is what it is going to take to get Gibson. The return has to improve their 2019 rotation. I don't think they will find a partner but if I take the position of not trading Gibson someone is going to push back and ask why I wouldn't listen to any offer. I would listen to this one or any that has a good chance of improving 2019.
  21. A trade to the Yankees that brings in Sheffield and Gray has the potential for improving 2019. Both could be in next year’s rotation.
  22. Does he develop as a hitter if he doesn’t stay in the minor leagues? Maybe his future is that of Butera but he needs time to develop. Give him that time. Does Wilson’s experience in the majors and pitch sequencing have any value? He has been the primary catcher for Berrios and Gibson. Berrios is among the league leaders in fewest pitches per inning. Gibson has taken another step forward. Defense at catcher is so much more than blocking pitches, throwing out runners and framing. It would be really hard to imagine how a catcher with also little experience above A ball could possibly be comparable defensively with Wilson. There isn’t even a way to measure Wilson’s impact on the development of Garver. Wilson will move on after this season but the progress of Garver, Berrios and Gibson will remain.
  23. Better when? If they are certain the trade makes them a better team in 2019, I am all in. If not, I would keep Gibson. Too much can happen to prospects whose prime is 4-5 years away.
  24. Dozier’s performance and batted ball/pitch level data have been equally mediocre. He should be playing but not batting in the top four spots Buxton and Sano poor at bats match their poor results. Sending them down was the correct move. My response was about Morrison not the others. I think his batted ball/pitch level data tell a different story than his results. I would be playing him against every right handed pitcher.
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