jorgenswest

We need a good start from Pelfrey tonight.

Compared to 6 man, May loses one start. Trading a May start against Orioles for Gibson start against Tigers. Milone start moves from Tigers to Orioles. May available in pen soon. Maybe today if it was throwing day. Milone or Pelfrey wouldn't have available until into next week.

Gibson can start two more times. Tuesday and Sunday. A 6 man rotation would eliminate that possibility. Which of these gives the Twins the least chance to win next week? Gibson v Tigers Milone v Tigers May v Orioles (skipping May and means Milone starts against the Orioles instead of the Tigers) Pelfrey v Tigers Isn't that how the Twins should make up their rotation? Debating the merits of the 6 man rotation is a nice exercise but the Twins are playing real games and need to decide based on their best chances to win those games. Molitor needs to assess which of those gives him the best shot at winning games.

I agree with you in theory. I think every team would go this route. It wouldn't work. The Twins have a larger bonus pool this year than they will see in the future. They used it to get one guy that likely would have signed by those going over pool. If they try to sign a bunch of guys just above $500,000 they could be left with the players they targeted going to other teams with the same plan. Now they have to turn to lesser players and still offer them an amount above the level that the restricted teams can pay.

If the 6 man rotation is only until the all star break it means everyone will get 2 starts with the exception of May getting one start. Assuming Santana starts two games, the Twins have the following option for those losing a start. 1-May and Gibson each 1 (6 man rotation) 2-May 2 (May to pen) 3-Milone/Pelfrey 1 and Gibson/May 1 (Milone or Pelfrey to pen, Gibson or May loss depends which starts Tuesday) Which is the best option to take them to the break? I am waiting to see what Pelfrey brings Saturday. Another way to look at it is to consider the opponent. Santana and Hughes are lined up to start against the Tigers. Which 2 of the other 4 give the Twins the best chance to beat the Tigers? The Twins don't need to be debating the merits of a 6 man rotation. They have to figure out how to best win the majority of the next 11 games.

This one signing exceeds their pool. They can go 5% over with the only penalty being dollars. More than 5% and it impacts their ability to sign players next year. That would be foolish because if you are going to go over, go way over. Sign multiple guys in the top 30. That isn't going to happen. They are throwing their international eggs in one basket this year. They can trade for more pool money, but most of these guys will never make it. It would be unwise to trade Arcia or similar for pool money. Almost any younger player they have in AA or AAA is much more likely to be useful at the major league level than a 16 year old signing

My apologies for the vitriol. I am still not convinced OPS is a better measure than strike out rates, walk rates and with a large enough sample home run rates.

It would be nice if 5 minutes of prep work were put into one of the main topics. Milone to the bullpen. Did you know that Milone has been more effective against right handed batters than left handed batters over his career? His strike out rate against right handed batters is better. His walk rate against right handed batters is better. He has been better against lefties this year in as a sample of only 70 plate appearance. that is a small sample in comparison to career where he has reverse splits in the minors and majors. Listening to your show, we would have to believe that he has consistently year in year out been better against lefties and it isn't true. Did you know he is better in innings 4-6 than innings 1-3. A lot better this year. Does that sound like a reliever to you? A few minutes of prep would be nice.

Lucroy probably not available http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/whos-available-and-whos-not-from-the-brewers-b99526821z1-310376871.html

This was not Suzuki's reputation coming to Minnesota unless his tactics were to call a very high rate of fastballs. Working with Allen will be a plus.

Why doesn't that return need to be better than what they are getting from their current 5? I want him to earn it. If he doesn't, start him in the pen. There will be an opportunity for the rotation as the season progresses. Let him earn it then.

Do the Twins care about winning? Do they care about earning a job by performing? I listened again tonight. He was good innings 6 and 7. That isn't good enough. He was able to get out of jams in the first 5 innings against some mediocre hitters. He needs to be a lot better. Try have taken him out for Darnell.

Anybody else paying attention to Santana's second start? I listened to the first. He wasn't very good, but was able to limit damage. Tonight through 5 7 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout Maybe his third start will be dominant. Is that enough to put him in the rotation? Not for me. Is he a given for the rotation? I hope he has to earn it. The 5 men that have worked their tails off without PEDs deserve it. Edit: Solid innings 6,7 with no hits and 2 strike outs. Overall not a very encouraging performance with 9 base runners in first 5 innings. He should have been taken out after 4 but was on a pitch count and performance didn't matter. Needs to be lights out in his third start. Milone set that bar in Rochester.

Very thoughtful about line up. Makes pretty good use with the roster he is given. I don't like the use of Escobar in LF or Nunez at SS but that is more on Arcia and Santana than Molitor. If they had played as expected, Nunez and Escobar wouldn't be exposed. I don't think I would use Nunez at SS with Pelfrey or Gibson and their ground ball tendencies though.

If you don't believe over 500 innings is enough to use their actual performance (adjusted for park and league) at least compare the peripherals as one sample. By season, there is no way to understand scale. For instance, isn't 2011 simply a September call up for Milone? Santana needs to earn a spot. Very good performance two years ago and good peripherals with mediocre performance last year isn't enough. He needs to perform first.

His ERA+ would have been adjusted for park and league. Otherwise he would have had a better number. There is reason to be skeptical. Oakland traded him for a journeyman CF. Someone above commented he was waived but that was not correct. He was optioned after they acquired two very good starters. There is also reason to be skeptical of Nolasco and Santana. Pitchers who are league average or worse through ages 26-31 rarely are very good ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ My hope is that Santana earns a spot by dominating AAA or coming up and being lights out from the bullpen. The current starting 5 earned the chance to compete against him for their spot.

It needs to be that easy. They need to give themselves the best chance to win. Neither Santana or Nolasco will have any trade value. They didn't have trade value the moment the Twins gave them the contract. They compounded it with their performance and actions since signing those contracts. The Twins need to start the best 5. Santana may be one of the best 5 but he needs to show it and earn that spot.

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore. Milone 98 ERA+ Santana 95 ERA+ Nolasco 87 ERA+ The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally. The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now. These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a split. Duensing- In his career he has done much better against lefties with a 2.97 FIP, 19.4% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. Unfortunately his ability against lefties may be slipping. This year he has a 12.1% K rate and the same walk rate. He has never been effective against right handed pitching. Thompson- He was used for multiple innings at the start of the year. His numbers against just lefties are better than Duensings this year with a 20% K rate and 12% walk rate. For his career he has been better against lefties but not to the extreme of the typical LOOGY. Milone- Milone has reverse splits for his career. He should not replace Duensing or Thompson as a left handed relief specialist coming out of the pen. If he is in the pen, a Swarzak type role would be better. Thielbar- He has so few innings at a single level to look at this years numbers alone. His major league numbers of 25.4% k-rate and 5.5% walk rate can not be matched by Duensing or Thompson. The numbers in the minors are better. I wonder if he is healthy and at the same skill level this year. He previous performance fits the LOOGY role better than Duensing or Thompson. Rogers- Left handed batters can not touch him in the minors. He has a K rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. Lefthanded OPS against is .499. Right handed batters have much more success. The K-rate is cut in half at 15.5% while the walk rate more than doubles at 7.3%. Right handed batters have a .712 OPS. No LOOGY- Is it possible that none of the options are so good against left handed batters that it isn't worthwhile keeping one of these guys in the pen? They do have Perkins who can come in and get a key lefty with two outs in the 8th. There are some other candidates that might help in the pen. Meyer- He has reverse platoon splits over his career striking out a greater rate of left handed hitters than right handed hitters. His career 30.4% K-rate of lefties is greater than any of the lefthanded pitchers listed above. If he finds success in relief, you might not want to take him out for a LOOGY. Oliveros- He has very good strike out rates against left and right handed batters. His splits aren't reversed, but it doesn't appear he would be a pitcher that they would need to shield from left handed batters. Achter- While his strike out rates have been much better against right handed batters, he hasn't allowed left handed batters to hit home runs very often. I am not sure how well that would translate to the major leagues. He might be someone they would want to keep away from left handed batters. Tonkin- He hasn't faced many left handed batters in the majors and he hasn't done well in those 75 plate appearances. He had neutral platoon splits in the minors. Pressly- His major league numbers are neutral. His FIP against lefties n the majors is better but OPS against is worse. Boyer- His career numbers show less than 10% k-rate against left handed pitching. It is hard to imagine that he could be successful against lefties with that k-rate. On the whole he hasn't been successful. This year left handed batters have faced him 43 times. He has been extremely successful with a 2.51 FIP against lefties. Right handed batters have done very well against him this year resulting in a FIP of 5.09. If the numbers are real, he might be the best LOOGY option. Just don't let him pitch against a right handed batter. I fear the numbers are not real and his career strike out rate of 9.8% against lefties will resurface as he regresses. Graham- Let him mop up as long as they can afford the roster space. There may come a time when contending leads to a move. He can be used as part of a trade package. Perkins and Fien- I don't see any reason to move them out of their current roles. The Twins might consider going with no LOOGY for a while. The Twins right handed relievers probably handle left handed batters as well as the left handed pitching options. They might consider releasing Duensing while optioning Thompson and Tonkin. Bring in Meyer and give Thielbar a shot at LOOGY. If not Thielbar then Rogers. When Santana returns, they can make a decision about whether they need a LOOGY. If so, they will probably be back to an 8 man pen. They need to be careful about Boyer and evaluate at the all star break. His release might allow them to go back to 7 pitchers or he might be replaced by Tonkin, Oliveros or Achter. Evaluate the bullpen again as the trade deadline approaches. If the internal solutions have not made an impact they will need to go outside and pay with some prospects in hopes of filling the need.

They need to wait and see if Santana improves in his next two starts. His first wasn't good but it can be explained by being rusty. He needs to dominate before they give him one of the 5 spots. If not let him dominate in the pen through the all star break. He needs to show he is a better option than the current 5 before earning a spot.

The best decision might be a Santana in the pen. Milone? He his outperforming Santana's projections for this year. He has outperformed Santana since his first full season in 2012. If he has outperformed Santana his last 500 innings, isn't it possible he will in the next half season? He is also 4 years younger. Gibson or May? Both young pitchers critical to the Twins future. Do they want to replace them with a pitcher that was league average though his prime and highly likely to be below in his decline? Pelfrey? He is performing too well. Hughes? He really fits the Gibson/May group. He is in his prime and critical to the future. When they sign a decline phase veteran to a long term contract they have to understand that there will be a point before the contract expires where that pitcher will no longer be among the best 5 options. The best decision might be to use Santana in the pen until injury or a string of poor performances gives him an opportunity.

Kepler and Walker are likely going to follow the same back and forth from majors to minors that so many others have needed. They can't be expected to be ready next year or even the year after. It is really hard to hit major league pitching and most players do not come up ready to do so. They learn by failing in the majors and making adjustments that were never necessary in the minors. The Twins need Arcia. He is the better hope for power next year.They also need to preserve all of Walker's options.

Since 2012 (Milone's first full season) Milone 34-24, 3.97 ERA, 98 ERA+, 506 IP Santana 32-33, 4.06 ERA, 95 ERA+, 585 IP Milone is 28 and Santana is 32. Is it possible that Milone is the better pitcher today and into the future? Is it clear that he is not the better pitcher?

Sending Arcia to AAA is the right move. We don't need to read into that move a hopeless feeling on the part of the Twins staff. They expect better and sent a message to a young player. Every team encounters a poor attitude from a struggling young player. It is difficult to handle failure and sometimes prolonged failure doesn't happen until the major league level. The Twins can deal with Arcia by expecting and demanding better. I think Arcia will step up and meet those expectations. I think he will provide a much needed power bat against right handed pitching in his prime.

As Ervin Santana gets ready for his first start in Rochester, I wondered what the impact of his loss has been on the Twins thus far. Mike Pelfrey was his immediate replacement and he has certainly stepped up to the task. He has far outperformed what we might have expected from Santana. It isn't really fair to compare his performance to just Pelfrey though. I looked at the performance of Pelfrey, May and Milone. All three had opportunities that may not have been available had Santana not let down his team with his suspension. The three together have combined for 32 starts thus far. In those 32 starts, they went 12-9 with a 3.59 ERA in 188 innings. The 32 starts represent a full season with an ERA+ of 111. Wow! No one could have projected those numbers. What should have been expected from Santana? Last year he had an ERA+ of 93 with the Braves. He was very good in 2013 and absolutely awful in 2012. He is projected by Steamer to have an ERA of 4.31. Is it possible that his absence has helped in the win column? Had Santana performed as projected, it may have cost the Twins 1 or 2 wins. I would go further and suggest that the timing of his suspension may have contributed to the Twins awful start to the season. Maybe it would be 2-3 wins (instead of 1-2) had they never signed him. It would be unwise to use first half numbers to project second half numbers. I am not sure what their updated projections will look like, but they probably will be similar to Santana's and somewhat worse than league average ERA. I don't think projections would clearly show Santana as a better option among the four. He will add depth. At this point, it doesn't appear Santana's loss has cost the Twins in the win column. It is likely just the opposite. I think Santana's suspension has had a positive impact on the win loss record thus far. I think it has been worth 2 wins. Is it possible Santana's addition and placement in the starting rotation will cost them in the win column? This is a team that appears to have developed a good chemistry. May, Milone and Pelfrey have seized the opportunity and earned the trust of their teammates. If Santana is going to have a positive impact upon returning, he needs to start by being lights out in Rochester. Milone set that bar. Santana needs to approach it.