jorgenswest

Do the Twins care about winning? Do they care about earning a job by performing? I listened again tonight. He was good innings 6 and 7. That isn't good enough. He was able to get out of jams in the first 5 innings against some mediocre hitters. He needs to be a lot better. Try have taken him out for Darnell.

Anybody else paying attention to Santana's second start? I listened to the first. He wasn't very good, but was able to limit damage. Tonight through 5 7 hits, 3 runs, 2 home runs, 2 walks, 1 strikeout Maybe his third start will be dominant. Is that enough to put him in the rotation? Not for me. Is he a given for the rotation? I hope he has to earn it. The 5 men that have worked their tails off without PEDs deserve it. Edit: Solid innings 6,7 with no hits and 2 strike outs. Overall not a very encouraging performance with 9 base runners in first 5 innings. He should have been taken out after 4 but was on a pitch count and performance didn't matter. Needs to be lights out in his third start. Milone set that bar in Rochester.

Very thoughtful about line up. Makes pretty good use with the roster he is given. I don't like the use of Escobar in LF or Nunez at SS but that is more on Arcia and Santana than Molitor. If they had played as expected, Nunez and Escobar wouldn't be exposed. I don't think I would use Nunez at SS with Pelfrey or Gibson and their ground ball tendencies though.

If you don't believe over 500 innings is enough to use their actual performance (adjusted for park and league) at least compare the peripherals as one sample. By season, there is no way to understand scale. For instance, isn't 2011 simply a September call up for Milone? Santana needs to earn a spot. Very good performance two years ago and good peripherals with mediocre performance last year isn't enough. He needs to perform first.

His ERA+ would have been adjusted for park and league. Otherwise he would have had a better number. There is reason to be skeptical. Oakland traded him for a journeyman CF. Someone above commented he was waived but that was not correct. He was optioned after they acquired two very good starters. There is also reason to be skeptical of Nolasco and Santana. Pitchers who are league average or worse through ages 26-31 rarely are very good ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ My hope is that Santana earns a spot by dominating AAA or coming up and being lights out from the bullpen. The current starting 5 earned the chance to compete against him for their spot.

It needs to be that easy. They need to give themselves the best chance to win. Neither Santana or Nolasco will have any trade value. They didn't have trade value the moment the Twins gave them the contract. They compounded it with their performance and actions since signing those contracts. The Twins need to start the best 5. Santana may be one of the best 5 but he needs to show it and earn that spot.

Is it certain that Santana and Nolasco will perform better than the 5 pitchers currently in the rotation? Their projections do not suggest it is clear. Milone has performed better than either of the other two since 2012 and is 28. Perhaps those 500+ innings don't represent his true skill level, but that is a pretty big sample to ignore. Milone 98 ERA+ Santana 95 ERA+ Nolasco 87 ERA+ The Twins were foolish to give Santana a long term contract when he couldn't find one the previous two off seasons. They were foolish to jump into the market early with both Santana and Nolasco instead of letting the market dictate their value. Will they be foolish to pitch them when they aren't one of the best 5 options? That is going to happen sometime in the next few years as they decline. Maybe we are already there.

The Twins bullpen has the poorest strike out rate in the majors. This is not a surprise and was projected when the 25 man roster was announced. The Twins may need to trade for bullpen help at the deadline. Before that happens, I hope they look at solutions internally. The Twins need at most one LOOGY as opposed to the two they are using now. These pitchers are possible internal solutions. The split rates are since 2011 unless otherwise specified. That allows a large enough sample in taking a split. Duensing- In his career he has done much better against lefties with a 2.97 FIP, 19.4% K rate and 4.9% BB rate. Unfortunately his ability against lefties may be slipping. This year he has a 12.1% K rate and the same walk rate. He has never been effective against right handed pitching. Thompson- He was used for multiple innings at the start of the year. His numbers against just lefties are better than Duensings this year with a 20% K rate and 12% walk rate. For his career he has been better against lefties but not to the extreme of the typical LOOGY. Milone- Milone has reverse splits for his career. He should not replace Duensing or Thompson as a left handed relief specialist coming out of the pen. If he is in the pen, a Swarzak type role would be better. Thielbar- He has so few innings at a single level to look at this years numbers alone. His major league numbers of 25.4% k-rate and 5.5% walk rate can not be matched by Duensing or Thompson. The numbers in the minors are better. I wonder if he is healthy and at the same skill level this year. He previous performance fits the LOOGY role better than Duensing or Thompson. Rogers- Left handed batters can not touch him in the minors. He has a K rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3%. Lefthanded OPS against is .499. Right handed batters have much more success. The K-rate is cut in half at 15.5% while the walk rate more than doubles at 7.3%. Right handed batters have a .712 OPS. No LOOGY- Is it possible that none of the options are so good against left handed batters that it isn't worthwhile keeping one of these guys in the pen? They do have Perkins who can come in and get a key lefty with two outs in the 8th. There are some other candidates that might help in the pen. Meyer- He has reverse platoon splits over his career striking out a greater rate of left handed hitters than right handed hitters. His career 30.4% K-rate of lefties is greater than any of the lefthanded pitchers listed above. If he finds success in relief, you might not want to take him out for a LOOGY. Oliveros- He has very good strike out rates against left and right handed batters. His splits aren't reversed, but it doesn't appear he would be a pitcher that they would need to shield from left handed batters. Achter- While his strike out rates have been much better against right handed batters, he hasn't allowed left handed batters to hit home runs very often. I am not sure how well that would translate to the major leagues. He might be someone they would want to keep away from left handed batters. Tonkin- He hasn't faced many left handed batters in the majors and he hasn't done well in those 75 plate appearances. He had neutral platoon splits in the minors. Pressly- His major league numbers are neutral. His FIP against lefties n the majors is better but OPS against is worse. Boyer- His career numbers show less than 10% k-rate against left handed pitching. It is hard to imagine that he could be successful against lefties with that k-rate. On the whole he hasn't been successful. This year left handed batters have faced him 43 times. He has been extremely successful with a 2.51 FIP against lefties. Right handed batters have done very well against him this year resulting in a FIP of 5.09. If the numbers are real, he might be the best LOOGY option. Just don't let him pitch against a right handed batter. I fear the numbers are not real and his career strike out rate of 9.8% against lefties will resurface as he regresses. Graham- Let him mop up as long as they can afford the roster space. There may come a time when contending leads to a move. He can be used as part of a trade package. Perkins and Fien- I don't see any reason to move them out of their current roles. The Twins might consider going with no LOOGY for a while. The Twins right handed relievers probably handle left handed batters as well as the left handed pitching options. They might consider releasing Duensing while optioning Thompson and Tonkin. Bring in Meyer and give Thielbar a shot at LOOGY. If not Thielbar then Rogers. When Santana returns, they can make a decision about whether they need a LOOGY. If so, they will probably be back to an 8 man pen. They need to be careful about Boyer and evaluate at the all star break. His release might allow them to go back to 7 pitchers or he might be replaced by Tonkin, Oliveros or Achter. Evaluate the bullpen again as the trade deadline approaches. If the internal solutions have not made an impact they will need to go outside and pay with some prospects in hopes of filling the need.

They need to wait and see if Santana improves in his next two starts. His first wasn't good but it can be explained by being rusty. He needs to dominate before they give him one of the 5 spots. If not let him dominate in the pen through the all star break. He needs to show he is a better option than the current 5 before earning a spot.

The best decision might be a Santana in the pen. Milone? He his outperforming Santana's projections for this year. He has outperformed Santana since his first full season in 2012. If he has outperformed Santana his last 500 innings, isn't it possible he will in the next half season? He is also 4 years younger. Gibson or May? Both young pitchers critical to the Twins future. Do they want to replace them with a pitcher that was league average though his prime and highly likely to be below in his decline? Pelfrey? He is performing too well. Hughes? He really fits the Gibson/May group. He is in his prime and critical to the future. When they sign a decline phase veteran to a long term contract they have to understand that there will be a point before the contract expires where that pitcher will no longer be among the best 5 options. The best decision might be to use Santana in the pen until injury or a string of poor performances gives him an opportunity.

Kepler and Walker are likely going to follow the same back and forth from majors to minors that so many others have needed. They can't be expected to be ready next year or even the year after. It is really hard to hit major league pitching and most players do not come up ready to do so. They learn by failing in the majors and making adjustments that were never necessary in the minors. The Twins need Arcia. He is the better hope for power next year.They also need to preserve all of Walker's options.

Since 2012 (Milone's first full season) Milone 34-24, 3.97 ERA, 98 ERA+, 506 IP Santana 32-33, 4.06 ERA, 95 ERA+, 585 IP Milone is 28 and Santana is 32. Is it possible that Milone is the better pitcher today and into the future? Is it clear that he is not the better pitcher?

Sending Arcia to AAA is the right move. We don't need to read into that move a hopeless feeling on the part of the Twins staff. They expect better and sent a message to a young player. Every team encounters a poor attitude from a struggling young player. It is difficult to handle failure and sometimes prolonged failure doesn't happen until the major league level. The Twins can deal with Arcia by expecting and demanding better. I think Arcia will step up and meet those expectations. I think he will provide a much needed power bat against right handed pitching in his prime.

As Ervin Santana gets ready for his first start in Rochester, I wondered what the impact of his loss has been on the Twins thus far. Mike Pelfrey was his immediate replacement and he has certainly stepped up to the task. He has far outperformed what we might have expected from Santana. It isn't really fair to compare his performance to just Pelfrey though. I looked at the performance of Pelfrey, May and Milone. All three had opportunities that may not have been available had Santana not let down his team with his suspension. The three together have combined for 32 starts thus far. In those 32 starts, they went 12-9 with a 3.59 ERA in 188 innings. The 32 starts represent a full season with an ERA+ of 111. Wow! No one could have projected those numbers. What should have been expected from Santana? Last year he had an ERA+ of 93 with the Braves. He was very good in 2013 and absolutely awful in 2012. He is projected by Steamer to have an ERA of 4.31. Is it possible that his absence has helped in the win column? Had Santana performed as projected, it may have cost the Twins 1 or 2 wins. I would go further and suggest that the timing of his suspension may have contributed to the Twins awful start to the season. Maybe it would be 2-3 wins (instead of 1-2) had they never signed him. It would be unwise to use first half numbers to project second half numbers. I am not sure what their updated projections will look like, but they probably will be similar to Santana's and somewhat worse than league average ERA. I don't think projections would clearly show Santana as a better option among the four. He will add depth. At this point, it doesn't appear Santana's loss has cost the Twins in the win column. It is likely just the opposite. I think Santana's suspension has had a positive impact on the win loss record thus far. I think it has been worth 2 wins. Is it possible Santana's addition and placement in the starting rotation will cost them in the win column? This is a team that appears to have developed a good chemistry. May, Milone and Pelfrey have seized the opportunity and earned the trust of their teammates. If Santana is going to have a positive impact upon returning, he needs to start by being lights out in Rochester. Milone set that bar. Santana needs to approach it.

Santana was essentially league average from ages 27-31. The outlook for that group isn't encouraging from ages 32-35. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ With decline expected every year, this year was his best chance of being a significant help and pitching near league average. He let his team down and forfeited half of that year. Luckily for the Twins, other pitchers stepped up. They don't deserve to lose their spot. That sends a bad message to the club house and the team.

There is space for all of the players named above on the 40. There will be next year also. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6647-looking-at-the-40-man-roster/#commentsStart

It is unreasonable to expect number 2 performance from Santana. Going back 5 years, he has one season with the Royals where he performed at that level. That performance was aided by a fantastic defense. He is projected for an ERA of 4.31 by steamer. He had an ERA+ of 93 last year. A number 4 starter this year is a much more reasonable expectation. The Twins certainly have not missed him in the first half. His starts have likely gone to May, Milone or Pelfrey all of whom are outperforming his projection. In fact it is likely that the Twins have benefitted in the win column due to his absence.

Any long term projections really need to look back long term. A few months of data is not very useful in projecting long term. Three full years minimum are needed. I hope the Twins are not reacting to this just year and valuing Kepler ahead of Arcia.

Move him to AAA or keep him in AA. Call him up in September or play him in the AFL. I don't think any of those will significantly change his career path. The only mistake would be to use an option this year.

Is it possible to both be encouraged by his production and concerned about his strike zone management? Is it possible to do so without calling for his call up today or trashing him? I think he will be a productive player in the majors. I think the best route is to finish the year in AA. Follow that with an addition to the 40 in the winter and begin 2016 in AAA. Maybe we won't see him until September 2016. He might need all three options before he has a valuable role. Is that trashing him?

You are right. They would be hard to find. The best prospects don't stay the full season at the same level. They would do well in all aspects and move up in June. It is really difficult to lead your full season level in home runs or RBIs or even be among the top three when you don't stay there a full season. If you limit yourself to only those players who played the full season at A, A+ and AA you would have a very skewed group void of most good major leaguers.

With the depth of the Twins system, they will have several players that need to be put on the 40 man roster this winter to avoid the rule 5 draft. Are there so many that the Twins should consider trading some of them this summer? How many spots will reasonably be available this winter? With the DFA of Tim Stauffer, the Twins currently have 40 men on their 40 man roster. There is one spot available as Ervin Santana will not count until he return in July. The Twins will have some players entering free agency following the season. Those spots will be open. Those players include Torii Hunter Blaine Boyer Mike Pelfrey Brian Duensing Any of those players can be replaced. The Twins should not feel the urgency to extend them this summer. They might consider trading them for whatever the market will return. That is 4 spots. The remaining 36 are under team control in some form or another. Some will be eligible for arbitration. The Twins may elect not to take them to arbitration. Trevor Plouffe Jordan Schafer Tommy Milone Shane Robinson Eduardo Nunez Casey Fien Eduardo Escobar I would think that Plouffe, Fien and Escobar would be offered arbitration. If Milone isn't traded, he may also be offered arbitration. I would think Schafer, Robinson and Nunez can be replaced. Adding those three that is 7 spots The Twins have some players on the 40 man roster that might be considered close to replacement level. They include A.J. Achter Logan Darnell J.R. Graham Ryan Pressly Caleb Thielbar Aaron Thompson Michael Tonkin Jason Wheeler Chris Herrmann Josmil Pinto Doug Bernier Aaron Hicks Darnell and Wheeler are lefthanded and may not make it through rule 5 but have little upside. The Twins really need to see what they have in Achter, Thielbar and Tonkin this season. At their age, if they don't feel Achter and Thielbar are worth a long look on the roster, they probably feel like they can be replaced. Pinto now has red flags due to concussions. If he can't catch does he have a spot? Among this list, I think Graham, Pressly, Tonkin, Pinto and Hicks are safe. The rest can be thrown with the group that will need to be put on the 40. That is 7 more spots for a total of 14. You could probably add Suzuki, Mauer and Nolasco to the performing near replacement level list but they have too much money tied into their contract. The Twins could free up a spot if they found a way to dump their contracts. There are two players that don't need to be added to the 40 until the following year, but could get called to the majors in 2015. Buxton and Berrios. They would not be a good candidate for a September call up because of the 40 man status. The only reason to call them up would be to help the team soon. I think they will call up Buxton. With Ervin Santana's return, I don't think we will see Berrios until 2016. 13 spots These are the players will be eligible for the rule 5 draft if they are not put on the 40. Bard, Luke Baxendale, D.J. Duffey, Tyler Haar, Bryan Harrison, Travis Hicks, Dalton Jones, Zack Melotakis, Mason Muren, Alexander Polanco, Joel Rogers, Taylor Valera, Rafael Vielma, Engelb Wade, Logan Walker, Adam Michael, Levi Johnson, Cole Goodrum, Niko 13 spots for those and players above not yet added. I think adding Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker are givens. 7 spots Achter, Thielbar and Herrman should be safe. 4 spots In summary... Hunter, Pelfey, Boyer, Duensing, Schafer, Robinson, Nunez, Darnell, Thompson, Wheeler and Bernier were removed Buxton, Baxendale, Duffey, Harrison, Jones, Rogers and Walker were added There are 4 more spots. Are there more than 4 players that urgently need to be added? Do the Twins need to trade away prospects due to 40 man roster decision this winter? Note: Thanks to TD and the organizational report. It is very likely I missed something or someone in doing this article. Any help would be appreciated. Edit: Schafer released. Buxton added to 40. Bernier removed. Fryer added. I would remove Fryer at end of season.

He is well worth a spot on the 40 man roster in 2016-17 in order to try to develop his bat from minor league power hitter to major league power hitter. Every year the Twins have no upside players taking spots on the 40. It might be wise to wait until next year to put him on the 40 in order to maximize the development time against MLB competition.

Terry Ryan has had success finding bargains in winter free agency. Kurt Suzuki was an all star. Jared Burton was a top set up man. Ryan Doumit provided a very good bat. In all three cases, the Twins chose to extend into their thirties rather than sell. It is not possible to know what the offers could have been for those players. They were all performing well enough to be valued by other teams and there would have been offers. All three could point to some aspect of their games or health that had changed their skill level. Instead the Twins chose to extend. A look at their performance before and after extension. Ryan Doumit (Extended through 2014 on 6/29/2012) Before 229 PA 271/332/443 OPS of 775 After 1003 PA 248/300/406 OPS of 706 A Great Deal From Any Perspective Jared Burton (Extended through 2014 on 12/6/2012) Before 62 IP 2.18 ERA 8.0 K/9 2.3 BB/9 After 130 IP 4.08 ERA 7.4 K/9 3.3 BB/9 Kurt Suzuki (Extended through 2016 on 7/31/2014) Before 348 PA 306/369/391 OPS of 760 After 337 PA 238/294/332 OPS of 626 Is his offense success sustainable? Who do the Twins buy high in 2015? Extension Candidate Number 1: Mike Pelfrey Pelfrey leads the team with a 2.28 ERA after 11 starts. Opposing batters have a .654 OPS against him. Is it his split fingered fastball getting more groundballs? How is Mike Pelfrey Doing This? Extension Candidate Number 2: Torii Hunter Hunter is second on the team with a 757 OPS. That OPS is just slightly lower than his OPS in 2014. He also leads the post game dance celebrations. He is credited with being a great leader for the young players. He is part of an outfield defense that looks markedly improved. Stick a Fork in Hunter: He's Done Extension Candidate Number 3: Blaine Boyer Boyer the Destroyer. He has gone from signing a minor league contract this winter to the Twins new set up man. He has a 2.48 ERA in a team high 29 games pitched. Is his refined change up finally allowing him to be effective against left handed pitching? Twins Best Kept Secret The deals for Suzuki, Burton and Doumit were well received. It was believed Suzuki would sustain his offensive success. Burton's history of arm trouble were behind him. Doumit's two year extension was a great deal from any perspective. Who do they extend this summer?

His xFIP of 4.36 suggests that he will not match his production of the first few months. The Twins made the mistake of believing Suzuki and changed his skill level in his all star performance in the first half of 2014. Will they make the same mistake with Pelfrey?