jorgenswest

The Twins should not give up on him as a starter. When they moved him out of the rotation last year his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It was a BABIP well into the 400s that was the difference between the two years. Add his relief work and he ended the season with a FIP of 3.28. The insanely high BABIP last year had to mess with his mind and confidence. The Twins were wise to get him out of the rotation. They would be unwise to give up on him as a starter knowing that his peripherals as a starter were essentially the same as 2014.

I hope this is the thinking. That would mean that next year they will have 12.85 that has come off the books and the payroll number for 2017 start at 118 million rather than 110 million.

Career strikeout rate dropped below 30% with last year's rate of 26.8%. Walk rates remain above 10% and fly ball rates remain above 50%. He can't afford any more drop in strike out rate and remain valuable as a pitcher. His xFIP of 4.27 last year shouldn't be ignored as an ERA projector. It would be foolish to give him 3 years. He will soon pitch his last good season and that may have been 2015. I am with Seth as far as the one year deal. I would not go beyond.

Why do they need more than one utility man? Is it a greater need than three catchers? I think it is less. The chance of an injury after a late inning substitution is very small. Wouldn't another bat on the bench, particularly one with options, be more valuable than insuring an infielder replacement should an injury occur after a late inning substitution? Worst case and that injury occurs, they can play Rosario at 2B or Plouffe at SS for an inning. I believe you are correct in your projection. I wasn't writing what I think the Twins will do. It is what I think they should do. They had the worst hitting off the bench in baseball last year. They can fix that with more corner guys and fewer utility guys on the bench. If they start with a bench of Murphy, Santana and Arcia they have every position covered. The fourth guy on the bench can be given to a pinch hitter. Ideally a player that has an option left so they can go to a 13 man pitching staff when necessary. It will be necessary at some point. At that time Nunez seems like the least valuable guy and the bench and the logical one to go.

I think the Twins have an opportunity to build a better bench utilizing Danny Santana's ability to play middle infield and centerfield. If Plouffe remains a Twin, it is hard to see the value in Eduardo Nunez. Santana is the better glove at any up the middle position. Santana is at least an equal option to pinch run. While Nunez has the better bat, if that is his purpose the Twins can do better by finding a better bat from a corner player. The Twins were at the bottom of the pinch hitting ranks last year and that can be improved if they don't have both Santana, Nunez with the back up catcher. There is a chance that Nunez would not be claimed and by an option in AAA if injury occurs. Teams might not want to pay the arb award he will earn. Even if he is lost, Polanco offers a more than adequate option when needed.

It is difficult to measure how much his back and hip trouble impacted his ability to hit. He battled through two injuries last winter in the Venezuelan league. The second was persistent back trouble. He then had trouble with his hip early in the season. Any injury to a hitter's core can effect the swing and particularly the power. Did the injuries significantly alter his mechanics? Can it be fixed? I am glad to hear he is in Florida working hard rather than winter ball. Hopefully he enters spring training with a healthy core and improved mechanics.

The Twins have an opportunity to utilize Danny Santana's versatility on the bench. Santana combined with Suzuki give the Twins coverage up the middle. The corners are more than adequately covered. The remaining two spots must go to bats that can pinch hit for Escobar and Murphy. I am hoping Arcia performs well in the spring and earns one of those spots. The other spot needs to go a guy with options that can be juggled when a 13th pitcher is needed. If Plouffe stays, I don't see how Nunez is an asset on the bench. They might be able to move him through waivers with the contract he earns in arbitration. If not, they can turn to Polanco if an injury up the middle occurs. Most importantly, Santana ability to play 2B, SS and CF enables them to address a bench that provided very little offense last year.

The strength of the rotation is the depth. They might not have a pitcher post an ERA+ better than league average but instead have 8 that are reasonably close. Guys that perform as number 4 starters may not be enough to get to 88 wins but they are significantly better than replacement level. The key is the young power arms coming up in the system. A bullpen of Perkins, Jepsen, May combined with Burdi and Meyer taking a big step forward can make this a playoff caliber staff.

The 4% should be discounted. for example it is 40 points of batting average. We have also seen how defense has helped the Royals. It is important to avoid any players who cut into the 62% that are almost always outs. When the Twins had Kubel, Willingham, Colabello, Parmelee and Arcia in the outfield a few years back, they weren't getting those 62%. Dozier is likely getting most of the 62% and some of that extra 4%. The outfield of 2013-2014 was a liability and a dilemma. Dozier isn't either.

Arcia is a key. The Twins need that left handed power bat.

I do agree this is a big year for Meyer. I don't think last year was a flame out. At the time he was removed from the rotation his FIP was essentially the same as it was in 2014. It ended much better than 2014 at 3.28. The difference in the two seasons early on was an insanely high BABIP that was far out of line with his career. I don't think the Twins handled it well as they tried to have him make adjustments that may not have been necessary. I expect he will be a valuable part of the staff by midseason.

I echo and add that his FIP was very good last year and the early BABIP of .420 was not in line with his career and had to mess with his head.

At 500 innings there isn't a better gauge. It takes three full seasons of starting to get to that point. At 200 innings, SIERA is a little better at estimating future ERA than FIP and xFIP and significantly better than ERA. Short of 200, none are very reliable. That Milone has maintained the performance for 600 innings is significant and sets him far apart from Diamond. In 2012 they had identical 3.93 FIPs and future projections based on that performance would be similar. Milone backed it up with 400 more innings of performance and Diamond did not. There is no comparison any longer.

No one would. If Diamond had 3 years and over 500 innings of 2012 performance he would be worthy of that contract. At some point performance becomes important. The better ERA estimators converge with ERA at 500 innings. At that point ERA does a very good job of describing performance. Neither Bonsor or Diamond reached that level because they could not sustain performance for multiple years. Bonsor also has 51 relief appearances in his data. I would hope no one in the Twins front office would think they are good comps for Milone in projecting future performance.

Side note on using splits by inning or times faced. In the first inning starters are guaranteed to see the best the other team has to offer. The data is skewed by the batters faced. As for third time around the lineup, the data is also significantly biased. Pitchers will often make 2+ times around the lineup. The split for third time around will be heavily skewed with many plate appearances from the top of the line up and few plate appearances from the bottom. Generalizations and conclusions should not be made about a pitcher's ability to go deep in games or his ability to be strong in the first inning use these splits.

I am not certain that Milone is incapable of going beyond 6 innings. He hasn't been given the chance very often. That can happen with lefties and several right handed options sitting in the bullpen. He was asked to throw over 100 pitches much more often while in Oakland and maintained his performance level. In any case, it may not be that important. Teams are rethinking the need for a pitcher to go deeper into games. Some teams are facing success turning to their bullpen in the 6th inning. It important that he is able to pitch deep when the bullpen needs rest. I think he showed in Oakland that he is capable.

I don't think the Twins discount Milone. They will be going to arbitration with him for a second year. They shouldn't discount Milone. He has performed better than any other Twin starter since his first full season of 2012. By ERA+ (adjusted for league and park) Milone 99 Hughes 96 Santana 96 Nolasco 85 The varying ERA estimators converge with ERA by 500 innings and the sample for all of these starters is significantly more than 500 innings over 4 years. Steamer projects him to have a better ERA next year than any other Twin starter (with 10+ projected starts) other than Berrios. He is the only lefty. He is younger than Hughes, Santana and Nolasco. He has performed better according to ERA+ going back 4 years. He is projected by Steamer to have better ERA next year and likely the year following. Why would anyone discount him?

Abad's fastball velocity dropped by almost 2 mph last year and it was no longer an effective pitch for him. He added a cutter which was not effective. He also had difficulty getting out lefties for the first time as they put up an OPS of 860 against him. The combination of fly ball tendencies and decreased velocity led to too many home runs. He goes from a park that has been near the bottom every year in home run factor (27th - .777) to one that has been middle of the pack (13th - 1.058). Seems like a typical Twin reliever signing. If his velocity isn't routinely around 93 next spring they need to drop him.

Revere through age 25 had an OPS of .654Hicks through age 25 has an OPS of .655

My concern is that May will not stay healthy as a reliever. He spoke towards the end of last season about his back trouble and not having the rest days he used to get as a starter.

The Twins waited a few years before they made their first winter meeting trade. In December of 1964 they traded Gerry Arrigo to the Reds for minor league infielder Cesar Tovar. It was a trade of two 23 year olds. Arrigo made his debut in 1961 and played his first full season with the Twins in 1964. He was a left handed starter pitching in a "plug in starter/long relief" role that year. He finished the season 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA. He struck out 96 batters and walked 45 in 105 innings. He was a promising young left handed starting pitcher. Cesar Tovar was a minor league second baseman blocked by Pete Rose. He had moved into a utility role in the minors playing SS, OF, 3B and a little 2B in 1964. The Reds could not find a place for Tovar and envisioned him a utility player. The Twins were looking for help at 2B or 3B. The Twins were ridiculed at the time of the trade. Dick Sisler, manager of the Reds, commented at the time that teams did not deal lefty starting pitchers for minor league infielders. That comment certainly resonates with me. I can't imagine being very excited about trading a major league 23 year old left handed starting pitcher for a minor league infielder stuck at AAA. Arrigo had pitched a one hitter in one of his 12 starts in 1964. Calvin Griffith said they had to pay through the nose in that trade. Reports for the Cincinnati Enquirer said that the Twins were seeking Tommy Helms but settled for Tovar. The Reds were seeking a power hitter and had been trying to get Bob Allison or Jimmie Hall from the Twins. The Twins must have know something about Tovar. They had him on loan from the Red in AAA in 1963. He worked with Billy Martin and played with Tony Oliva that year. Martin pushed for Tovar. He appreciated his aggresive style of play. Tovar was a player you had to see play. He was better than the numbers. Jack McKeon was the manager of that 1963 club and he had to get him in the lineup to lead off. Trying him in the OF McKeon saw that he got amazing jumps as if he had always played there. He returned to the Reds minor leagues in 1964 and helped his team win the AAA title. Frank Lucchesi commented that Tovar killed them in the field and with the bat. Still he was stalled in his third season of AAA. When he did play in the majors in 1965 with the Twins he was the ninth Venezuelan to reach the majors. He did not play a lot with the team that year, but the Twins had Billy Martin tutoring him. He finally arrived in 1966 and was among the games best lead off hitters. He played all over the field his first few years playing all nine positions for the Twins and repeating that feat in the Venezuela winter league. The Twins clearly won the trade. Arrigo never was able to command the strike zone for sustained success. He had 1.6 WAR after the trade and one good season. Tovar is credited with 28.1 WAR. I am sure I would have criticized the trade at the time. Even more now in the era of so much data. Someone on the Twins, likely Billy Martin, saw the player outside of the numbers. He was such a joy to watch at the Met. You could see his love for the game and his all out effort and aggressiveness that somehow does not get measured well in the numbers. I hadn't see a similarly aggressive young player since until this year. Eddie Rosario's aggressive style on the basepaths, approach at the plate and range in the outfield are very much like the young Tovar when he arrived. For more reading and sources that I used to write this article follow the links below. http://www.cooloftheevening.com/cesar_tovar.htm http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/fb4be4bb http://www.baseballhistorian.com/trade_details.cfm?first_name=Gerry&last_name=Arrigo

It seems like there have been winter meetings with major leagues as long as I can remember. In fact it used to be more significant prior to free agency. Seems like one winter Bill Veeck set up in public and made a bunch of trades with the White Sox. I can remember stories of Frantic Frank Lane or Trader Lane being very active at the winter meetings. If it ever just a minor league event it must have been long before my time.

Since his first full season in 2012, Milone has an ERA+ of 99. That is better than either Hughes or Santana over that same time span. He is also younger. He is certainly worth his cost in arbitration.

The Angels probably made a mistake in 2005 by allowing Santana to develop as a starter. Six of his first 10 starts his rookie season went less than 6 innings. He ended the season better but still averaged less than 6 innings a start his rookie year. He likely tore apart the bullpen. Ten years later, teams are even more conservative with pitch count. Managing pitch count is part of the learning curve for young pitchers at the major league level. Teams can avoid that learning curve and save the bullpen by continually buying mediocre veterans who are real starting pitchers. I believe the Twins prefer this direction.

Did the relief role contribute to Trevor May's back trouble in September? Mike Berardino reported following the season. "May also wonders if the lower-back spasms that plagued him over the final five-plus weeks would have been easier to ward off had he remained in the rotation. In his starter days, his hip would usually bother him in August, but he was able to manage the problem better with at least four days of rest between starts." http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_28924045/twins-trevor-may-has-one-goal-return-rotation