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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I think there was discussion about an optioned pitcher needing to spend 15 days in the minors. Is that a new rule for 2020 also?
  2. jorgenswest
    I always wonder about the NL to AL move. Should we ignore the plate appearance against opposing pitchers? Is that reasonable? If you take out the pitcher plate appearances Odorizzi was much more successful in 2019 than Wheeler or Bumgarner and both pitch in parks that have been considered favorable to pitchers. Wheeler’s strike out rate against non pitchers drops to 21.5%. His numbers take a hit when you take out his 28 strike outs (against 0 walks) against pitchers. Odorizzi stays at 27% when you take out the 4 pitcher at bats. Bumgarner gets a similar NL bump. Not only does facing pitchers help your strikeout numbers but it lengthens your outings and reduces those longer high pitch count innings. I don’t know if it is appropriate but I always take out plate appearances against other pitchers when comparing. If we can expect a similar performance from each of the three in 2020 Odorizzi would be my target.
  3. jorgenswest
    If a team is looking for a corner OF there seem to be several comparable to Rosario in free agency. MLBTR has Avisial Garcia at 2 years 12 million. He is 28. Why trade anything for Rosario when you can pay Garcia less over the next two years and give up nothing to get him? If not Garcia is how about Corey Dickerson at two year and 15 million? I don’t see any excess value in Rosario. If he were a free agent would he get a better two year deal than he has coming in arbitration the next two years? Won’t there always be corner OFs who project 10-15% above league with their bats. That level is probably generous for Rosario. I don’t think the Reds take Rosario and help the payroll come in at 140 million. If I am the Reds I would require more in prospects to get Iglesias and solve any corner OF need (if it is a need) cheaper in free agency. I don’t think taking Rosario would be maximizing teturn value for their reliever. If you can’t trade Rosario to make this blueprint work would you give up more in prospects for the reliever and non tender Rosario to be around 140 million? I would keep Rosario and devote less of the budget to the bullpen.
  4. jorgenswest
    Baseball Prospectus has them pretty far apart. They factor in the quality of pitcher faced and quality of contact which might be driving the difference. Rosario’s DRC+ the last two years were 112 and 109. Cave’s were 93 and 89. DRC+ doesn’t believe these two players are equivalent.
  5. jorgenswest
    At the time of the trade in 2018 Smeltzer was a AA reliever and finished a AA reliever. He had no innings in AAA. Isn’t it possible that every inning he threw in the minors last year was key to his development and any success in the majors? How many of the 14 starts in AAA do you suggest the Twins should have used for major league data rather than AAA development? Half of them? Would that have made a difference in whatever data they can collect in the majors that they can’t collect in the minors? What data would be collected? It is the same ball. The same machines collect all of the data on his pitches. They have a huge database to match those pitches against similar pitches in the major leagues. His pitches aren’t going to behave differently from the major league mound. Dobnak was even further away. Development matters. I am with you on the give a shot to a 28 year old Anderson vs. Belisle failure. Not here though. It was a failure of not acquiring a better major league starter than Perez. If anything Smeltzer and Dobnak are development successes that maybe would have benefited from more time developing in the minors last year.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think the rep is no longer true. The old regime started bringing up players quicker but the results were not very good for many. It was still a failure but it became a failure of not recognizing that players weren’t ready or a failure of not developing them. Arcia, Hicks, Sano and Buxton were not near ready with pitch recognition and approach. Hicks couldn’t recognize when to attack a pitch and the others couldn’t lay off pitches. I think it is much more critical that the players arrive prepared than arrive quick. If Graterol needs more time to work on an adequate change up so his fastball will be more effective he should start in AAA. It is on the Twins to have the right staff in place to develop him.
  7. jorgenswest
    If he shows (with his pitch mix not stats) he is ready in spring start him in the rotation. If not, give him more time to develop in AAA instead of using him in the major league pen.
  8. jorgenswest
    Soroko has and used three effective pitches. His change up was effective entering the season. The change up is the striking difference between the two. From May 21- look at the layover of his three pitches https://mobile.twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1130797255060070400 From April 29 https://www.pitcherlist.com/mike-sorokas-changeup-and-the-nastiest-pitches-from-4-29/ We didn’t see any evidence of a major league ready third pitch or change up from Graterol. Until he shows that third pitch I don’t think we can compare him to Soroka even if his age and minor league stats are comparable. Without a major league ready third pitch the options would be to send him to AAA or give up on making him a starter and put him in the bullpen to start the season.
  9. jorgenswest
    If the Twins devote any significant resources to acquiring a position player, I think catcher is the spot. Jeffers and Rortvedt can not be counted on to be ready at any time this season. It just takes longer to develop as a catcher. Telis has been playing AAA since 2014. His AAA numbers the last two seasons have been good but those come with lots of experience at the level. I wouldn’t count on him as a reliable in any long stretch in the majors. They need to focus on starting pitching but starting pitching plus Grandal would really help.
  10. jorgenswest
    Without Cron they have a reasonably solid core of 13 position players. Garver, Sano, Gonzalez, Arraez, Polanco, Adrianza, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave, Cruz Astudillo, catcher If Astudillo is the back up catcher then they have a spot for Cron. Otherwise they might be better off adding a catcher. They also have enough minor league depth that is ready for an opportunity when needed. Wade, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, Raley and Gordon (with Lewis a few hot months away from joining the list) The one position missing here is catcher. I am not sure I am confident in Telis at catcher. At 28 and in AAA since 2014 his numbers at that level might be skewed especially his recognition of AAA breaking balls. Cron is a good player but they might be better off using the roster and budget resources towards building depth at catcher
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to get this assessment right. If they are confident in Gordon they player to sell high is Arraez.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Twins need to play someone at catcher where the risk of repeated concussions is significant. The logic here might be that Garver’s bat is not one that they should risk losing due to concussion. With that logic teams would never have a good bat at catcher. They absolutely should move Garver on the advice of the medical team. Until then Garver at catcher gives them the best chance to win games.
  13. jorgenswest
    They have tremendous upside in their young starters. Giolito, Kopech, Lopez and Cease In the rotation. Rodon and Dunning returning during the season. The oldest of these Lopez is 26 (turns 27 in December). I think the Twins better be paying attention.
  14. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are confident enough in Astudillo’s defense at catcher I would go with him. I would use him against those high strike out pitchers that don’t give up a lot of contact. That game changing pinch hit against Matt Barnes still sits with me. It didn’t make sense until I realized the one thing the Twins needed the most in that at bat was a ball in play. Stick with Astudillo and put the resources elsewhere.
  15. jorgenswest
    As for his development they need to make sure his bat is an asset. It might be best to put the extra work at the plate than learning 3B or CF. I also think he has more value in trade as a starting SS prospect than a super utility with a mediocre glove at several positions. Develop the bat. Develop his glove at SS.
  16. jorgenswest
    I don’t think Lewis was expected to stay at SS but with shifting some argue that the demands of the position are changing. That seems fine in theory but then I watch the good middle infields in the playoffs and wonder if the pairing of Arraez and Polanco will hold the Twins back at that level. It might serve the Twins to move everyone down the defensive spectrum with Arraez going to 3B and Polanco 2B. Move Sano to 1B but find a shortstop.
  17. jorgenswest
    Is Wheeler better than Odorizzi? I wouldn’t put him in a tier above Odorizzi. Wheeler gets a huge benefit pitching in an NL pitcher friendly park. He had 28 strike outs to no walks against pitchers. Both the park and the NL helped to extend his innings and give the perception he would go deep in games. Take out pitchers and his OPS against (712) was 45 points higher than Odorizzi. In Citi Field Wheeler’s OPS against was 658 vs 727 away from home. Wheeler is better than Nolasco but the concerns should be the same. Nolasco came off a season pitching in the NL in a mix of neutral (Florida) and pitching friendly (LA) parks. He had about the same number of pitchers faced that included 23 of his strike outs. We found some hope in his FIPs that were better than his ERAs. His OPS against non pitchers that year was 706. I think there is a better chance that he will be Nolasco than be transformed into an ace. I expect somewhere in the middle getting between 5-6 innings per start of a little better than league average pitching and then declining some age 32 and 33.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don’t think we need defensive metrics (which have a stronger year to year correlation than batting average and ERA) to know that the Twins defense was below average to well below average all around the infield. They might address this by finding a plus defensive shortstop and moving Polanco to 2B and Sano to 1B. Arraez will still likely be below average at 3B but it shouldn’t be much different than Sano at 3B. Better defense will not only prevent runs but also reduce high pitch count innings. Reducing those innings leads to longer starts and less wear on the bullpen.
  19. jorgenswest
    http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/finer-points-options-part-two-the-fourth-option-r7741 Romero and 4th option year
  20. jorgenswest
    The innings are not a concern to me. Odorizzi battles every at bat and every pitch. Berrios had 100 1-pitch plate appearances from batters and was crushed for an OPS of 1321. Odorizzi only had 61 1-pitch plate appearances with an OPS of .839. When the count fell 1-0 batters attacked Berrios again more often than Odorizzi. Berrios gets more outs early in the count but it isn’t all good news. It might be better to throw fewer innings and battle every pitch.
  21. jorgenswest
    All games are still winnable. This one had the Yankees at 93.7% win expectancy at the time Gibson entered. If today was an off day I am taking my chances on the Twins side of that percent. There is a game today and relievers in general do not do as well on 0 days rest. That certainly is true for the Twins relievers and their 5.38 ERA on no rest.
  22. jorgenswest
    I think you manage the first two games like you manage a double header particularly to start the series when winning one game on the road is huge. Rogers, May and Romo have a better chance of being at the top of their game today. We can’t beat the Yankees if they are not at the top of their games. Everything resets with the day off so burn the bullpen today.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins have a better chance to win today with a rested May, Romo and Rogers and I would argue a better chance of winning one of two in New York. Rocco needs to manage for the series and not the moment.
  24. jorgenswest
    Every game is going to be a bullpen game in this series. The Yankees bats are too good and too disciplined. Add in below to well below average defenders at every position around the infield and pitch counts exceed 20 per inning.
  25. jorgenswest
    Would we roster Arraez if it looks like he is ready for game 3? I would if I were confident in the health of Gonzalez. The challenge is having so many other position players with questionable health in Kepler, Gonzalez, Cron and Adrianza. How many roster spots can be devoted to those question marks?
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