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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Which is a problem when the three newcomers all posted an OPS at or near .800 vs RHs. Last year the bullpen could afford the luxury of carrying a modern day LOOGY in Coulombe. They could burn a RP to get 2 outs because they had at least 3 arms at the top end that they trusted to get through innings (sometimes more than one) without intervention. That top end security blanket is gone. Coulombe was also far better vs. RHs than Banda/Chafin/Rogers. SWR + one of Festa/Matthews/Abel/Bradley aren't going to sniff getting through a batting order for a third time. Ober is coming back from injury too.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Buddy, the "any reliever who doesn't have elite stuff or metrics," part is the strawman.... Yep, minor league contract for a Major League bullpen that badly needs to raise the floor. We're not even talking about the roster spot here. This is about a team that decimated its own bullpen and attempted to patch things back together with an abundance of washed arms/waiver wire fodder. "Depth," and "no bad minor league deals," aren't really a defense when those guys make up over half the pen. Detroit let him walk last year.....
  3. KirbyDome89
    Spare me the strawman here, this guy is on his 7th team since 2023.... If you want to play the results, i.e. champion the ERA of a RP with 30ish IPs, and ignore the process that screams unsustainable, don't let me stop you. Any moderately forward thinking FO likely cares about "how the cake is baked." The idea that there's no downside to packing these incredibly limited arms into a bullpen that already lacks quality is also false.
  4. KirbyDome89
    He's Banda with half the SS. Terrible against RH hitters, walks way too many guys, and an ERA that significantly outperformed his FIP and xFIP. I wouldn't trust either of them anywhere near high leverage, but that's not how bullpens work over a 162 game season, and given the still awful state of this pen one or both may still find themselves thrust into leverage roles early and/or often.
  5. KirbyDome89
    You have to be if you're trying to paint this move in any sort of positive light.
  6. KirbyDome89
    This was all I was saying, plus I do believe his ability to stick at SS was in question (not at all uncommon) prior to the physical erosion.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Yeah I agree I think the difference in physical impact is pretty minimal in the grand scheme. I was speaking to his ability to play the SS position. If I remember correctly, Lewis moving off SS was a topic being discussed at his peak athleticism. I know there were questions about his release and at one point he was struggling to pick the ball cleanly. Maybe the errors were SSS noise and the throwing has been resolved (although he did look clunky at times last year) but I have to assume multiple knee surgeries took a toll on those physical gifts you mentioned. His sprint and throwing data aren't all that impressive, granted it's not necessarily apples to apples if we're talking about ranging into the hole to make a play.
  8. KirbyDome89
    Ninja'd by JD, but is SS not higher in the defensive hierarchy? Is it not far more common for guys to move off SS and into either of the other 2 positions than vice versa?
  9. KirbyDome89
    Idk if Lewis was ever truly tracking to be a viable starting MLB SS. After 2 ACL surgeries + other lingering lower body soft tissue injuries it's not happening.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Raya barely averaged more than 3 IP per appearance last season and he spent the 2nd half as a relief arm. It's not much of a transition.
  11. KirbyDome89
    My pushback was directed at YOUR assertion that trading was Falvey's strong suit and the method you used to support that position. I think it's a mixed bag, and I said as much in my initial post (where good trades were acknowledged btw) when I went over what I'd consider difference making acquisitions year by year. Idk how much more cogency you need. I was clear about the issue I see with ignoring context and counting WAR on both sides of the ledger to declare a winner, and like clockwork, you highlighted exactly what I was talking about with the Pablo/Arraez swap. Go look at that list of swaps again, it's at best a push, so no, the Twins weren't getting the better player "in the majority of trades." You've gone from moving the goalposts to straight up fabricating arguments now.
  12. KirbyDome89
    Honestly Idk if they've really improved the floor at all. Maybe at C but that's it. The entire bench sans Caratini is waiver wire fodder. They're praying for replacement level production at 1B, whether it's Wagaman/Clemens or Bell. Rogers doesn't move the needle enough in a pen that only had 1.5 ok arms prior to his signing. Brutal.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Well yeah, your math keeps expanding. Now you're assigning major league value to comp picks and using "close enough," to close the WAR gap after I pointed out the inconsistency with Pablo.
  14. KirbyDome89
    You literally just said WAR is the only effective way to measure these trades, and now you're going outside of it... My stance hasn't changed, but you're right, it's a losing position if you insist on moving the goalposts.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Would you trade me a 6 WAR player for a group of players worth 2,2,2, and 1 WAR? You're getting the better deal by WAR right? The counting game ignores roster implications and the impact of the players involved. One season of MVP caliber performance is worth more than 5 seasons of 1.5 WAR even if the latter wins the battle in terms of WAR. A (at worst) solid, middle rotation SP is worth more than a fringe back end guy and a replacement level bench player. SWR might not last the year in the Twins rotation. I very much doubt that nearly every GM in the league, especially those who are actually trying to win games, would take him over Berrios. The AAV is irrelevant. The Twins refusing to pay Berrios doesn't provide them with a handicap. By your own system, the Lopez/Arraez trade was a net loss for the Twins. I disagree, but Idk why you're using Pablo as an example of finding the best player.
  16. KirbyDome89
    Counting only WAR loses the plot when you're moving guys with limited control or swapping established players for prospects and vice versa. Did you get the better players and is the return moving the needle? The Mahle swap wasn't a disaster because Spencer Steer produced more WAR while being an overall meh 1B. It hurt because the Twins desperately needed a SP and Mahle immediately fell apart. Spencer Steer can rack up all the WAR he wants over whatever amount of time before FA, it doesn't matter. Ditto for the Berrios swap. SWR spent time in AAA last year, and Austin Martin is a fringe bench guy at best. Berrios has clearly been the best player in that swap. Maybe Martin gets enough playing time and SWR holds onto a rotation spot long enough to beat Berrios' WAR this season, it doesn't matter, the rotation took a hit and you've spent at least one, if not two, roster spots to downgrade. Idc about "losing," Brent Rooker or Noah MIller, but I do care about Pagan blowing games while the 2022 season tanked, and Margot being atrocious but still getting 400 PAs while 2024 season tanked.
  17. KirbyDome89
    2017: nothing of serious note 2018: Duran and Odo were good trades. Jake Cave for Luis Gil, the Pressly swap, and letting Dozier die on the vine were the opposite. 2019: nothing of serious note 2020: Normally I'd take impact > duration but I think the Maeda trade is a push. That COVID season was 60 games, I mean Martin Perez would've been a CYA candidate at one point if we only looked at his best two months with the Twins. Outside of that 11 game stretch Kenta was injured or just not that good. 2021: Ryan is the feather in Falvey's cap; hands down the best trade he made. The Berrios swap? Eh... 2022: Gray is a W barring a Petty bounce back. Lopez imploded. Mahle was a disaster. Pagan and Paddack were bad. 2023: Lopez for Arraez worked out better for the Twins, at least to date. 2024: You need to include DeSclafani in that swap. A cash strapped team burning $4M or $5M on a SP hurts. In general, Topa + an unusable SP for Polanco isn't a W. You can love Gonzalez all you want, but he hasn't done a single thing at the MLB level yet. Falvey traded for Margot that same offseason as well. 2025: TBD I'd say survival bias and the fact that Ryan and Lopez are amongst the only above average players left on this team are coloring our view of the past.
  18. KirbyDome89
    The Twins' payroll in 2023, relative to the league, sat essentially where it was for basically Falvey's entire tenure. If there was some sort of promise in place to massively bump payroll to offset Correa's outsized portion of the budget, it hasn't been reported. Falvey was consistently praised for "spending to his max budget," by Twins media, and that's what he did. He maxed out the budget by signing a player that he viewed as a star and he attempted to supplement the rest of the positional group with young/cheap players. It was a massive failure. I think the recklessly stupid public statements by ownership have provided more cover for Falvey than anything, Also, wasn't he in charge of the business side when the tv disaster took place? We're giving him a pass there too? The Pohlads are terrible owners, but this roster didn't get to the point it's at simply because they scaled back payroll. Poor development, poor resource allocation, and poor strategy are huge factors as to why this club couldn't make it out of the lowly ALC 4 of the last 5 seasons.
  19. KirbyDome89
    You missed the point, the focus is the symmetry, i.e. the farm is in roughly the same shape upon exit as it was when Falvey entered the organization. I'm sure other publications might disagree, whatever, we're talking about a decade at the helm with two good seasons from a single SP who may or may not be cooked at this point and a couple relief (albeit one elite) arms. The fact that you even have to mention Brock Stewart amongst the greatest hits collection kinda says it all.
  20. KirbyDome89
    Houston was clinging to a division lead when Valdez coughed up that GS and then drilled (it was not a cross up) his catcher with a 93 mph sinker. Salazar (the catcher) is a AAAA player trying to hang onto as much MLB time as he can get, so he of course had to eat it and nod along with whatever "explanation," came out afterwards. Assuming they can afford him and he's willing to do a one year deal with MN (I think there's a near zero chance here) is Valdez really a guy you want on the roster? Yeah, this team is likely to suck with or without him, and you could theoretically flip him at the deadline, but as an actual fan of the Twins I'm on board with passing on Valdez.
  21. KirbyDome89
    I've seen this sentiment echoed in both threads. 2023 was the outlier of the last 5 seasons and even for most of that season they weren't a good team. They were below .500 going into the ASB. They needed Cleveland to straight up quit on the season + a historically awful rest of the ALC + unrepeatable contributions from multiple rookies to win 87 games. 2024 looked identical to 2022 and last year was more of the same malaise. If we're giving Falvey a pass for the last two years, what's the excuse for 2021 and 2022?
  22. KirbyDome89
    An owner being more hands on and trying to force a "winning," season with one of the worst rosters in baseball seems like a disaster but YMMV. Falvey might have wanted out before too much of the organizational stink got on him, not that he isn't also culpable for the mess that is the Minnesota Twins.
  23. KirbyDome89
    That definitely dampens what enthusiasm I had for parting ways with Falvey.
  24. KirbyDome89
    What's even more strange is that such a...prolific...writer had the solo scoop and was able to sit on this story for months apparently. Such restraint.
  25. KirbyDome89
    It was time for Falvey to go. It probably should've happened before now, but whatever. Call me a downer, but I think there's a lot of wishcasting going on with regards to Tom Pohlad's motivation(s) right now. I too hope he saw the god awful roster and the piss poor on field performances this club has been turning in, but I also have zero faith in that family giving a **** about the on field product. I'm curious whether it was a power struggle and Falvey didn't want to relinquish control of the business side, or maybe it was personal, Idk, either way I kinda doubt it matters. Zoll sliding into Falvey's old chair is just another half measure from an organization feebly attempting to tell us that they don't do half measures and the business is being run by a family that's a walking PR nightmare. Two things can be true at once; I can be glad the Falvey era is over and simultaneously feel zero optimism for this club based on the current power structure.
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