KirbyDome89

Sub easily replaced for overrated and we're in agreement.

Vastly different. Atlanta was a 90+ win team for multiple seasons, with elite young talent leading the charge for years prior to that WS title. They continued to be a good team well after that run and despite a down 2025 they are likely still a very good team next season. The Twins had missed the postseason entirely 3 of the previous 4 seasons and they were playing middling at best baseball even at the ASB. It's apples and oranges. Uh huh, and how many of those teams in that group of 13 sold 5 or more MLB players at the deadline? Do you have a link to that article where Zoll and Falvey are on record saying they sold off the bullpen because they knew it'd net them a top 3 pick? Lol, yeah, they wanted a top 3 pick when they went in knowing they had the 2nd best odds for #1. If the Twins ended up at 4 we'd be hearing about how top 4 was the goal. I'll say it one last time, sitting here now, and shifting the motivating factor for the teardown to draft position (or allotment?) is just post hoc nonsense.

I said they were DQ'd from the lottery, which they were. I'm looking at Baseball Reference right now. On July 31st, the teams with a worse record than the Twins: AL -Chicago, Sacramento, Baltimore & NL - Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona was 51-58 while Minnesota sat as 51-57 so yes, basically tied. Since Colorado and Washington were ineligible for the lottery, that means the Twins were sitting at 6/7 as far as odds go. I'll ask you again, do you believe that a team that sold it's starting SS, starting LF, starting super utility player + a solid RP and whatever Paddack was competes at the same level moving forward when none of the returns were going to see time at the major league level? I don't. If a team that sells 20% of it's roster without adding any viable MLB talent continues to chug along at their post sale pace, and then a bunch of teams with low odds all happen to "win," the lottery and stuff the top 6 picks subsequently sending our Twins spiraling to a pick in the middle of the pack...I mean....what are we doing here? I'm not down on having the 3rd pick. I'm down on the idea that it was calculated, at least as far as the upper echelon of the bullpen selloff is concerned. It's a strong class, but hey, if we clear out our best bullpen arms, all of whom have years of control remaining, maybe we can lose enough games in 2025 to maybe get a higher draft pick, to maybe then sign someone under slot and throw the excess $$ at a comp pick that may or may not even be on the board when we pick again. Sure, going into the lottery process with the 2nd best odds. That absolutely does not mean their goal on July 31st was to land a top 3 pick in the draft. I want the Twins to get better too. I don't believe that gutting a bullpen and attempting to patch a new one together on the fly, with a limited budget, while allegedly "looking to build around the core," achieves that goal.

So now it's the allotment? They allegedly blew up their bullpen in 2025 for a draft class that's highly variable, but the real value is the extra spending power they'll have to overpay for a comp pick they have zero idea will be there when it's their turn to make another selection? Wow. Colorado and Washington were disqualified from the lottery. The Twins were basically tied with AZ for the 6th worse record on the day of the trade deadline. If the season ended that day, the worst they could've picked was 7th, which would've netted them a FV 60 prospect (same as picking at 3) if that's what they wanted. The Twins had already sold 4 rentals + Correa, all of whom were seeing regular playing time. They were going to maintain their disappointing level of play (up to that point) for the remainder of the season after selling 20% of the roster? Doubtful. Finishing 13th is/was a worst case scenario; they could've won the 1st pick with a 2% chance too if we want to argue extremes. Miami dropping from 9th to 13th is meaningless.

You were just arguing that "tanking," for better draft position was such an underrated part of the fire sale last season. If the draft is 9 deep, what was the point of dismantling the entire bullpen at the deadline when the Twins were already sitting with the 4th best odds for the #1 pick?

A declining Correa posted more WAR in 50 games with Houston last year than Brooks Lee could must the last 2 seasons. Was Correa worth his salary? No. Was he a much better option than what the Twins are going to roll out at SS on Opening Day this season? Undoubtedly, yes. If the Twins take that $20M+ and opt to actually reinvest it in the on field product I'm happy to reassess, but that seems like a pipe dream at this point. The Twins downgraded (rather significantly) at SS, and one of the highest individual salaries (what a joke) on the team is the person they're paying to not play that position. You asked why anybody other than Bradley would've been up last season? They were each pretty terrible in limited action but neither the players nor the team would've been better served keeping those guys in AAA. No clue why you're using Jax's career ERA, which includes his rough stint as a SP. His career ERA as a RP drops into the low 3s. I'll point it out again, he had a 4.50 ERA and a 2.05 FIP during the 1st half with MN last season. Some guys can/will skew to one side or the other, but that gap is enormous. You think Varland and Jax didn't make it as SPs because they lacked durability? Hard disagree. Well, viable SP and SP for the 2026 Minnesota Twins probably aren't the same thing. Bradley will get every opportunity to prove he's the former, but as it stands he's a fringe guy. Assuming he can just step into the bullpen and match Jax feels like a stretch.

Abel and Roden shouldn't have gotten any MLB run? Idk what you're arguing here. Ok, 6 starts with the Twins and nearly 400 innings of pedestrian at best production in total. Is that not a fairly significant sample size? Jax has been far more valuable the last few seasons. If Bradley is going to match that level of contribution drastic changes need to occur. If that money is reinvested maybe (and there's zero indication that will happen) otherwise like I said you're just spending $10M to downgrade at SS.

Estimated $8M, which is a bargain. He wouldn't have to be a closer, he could pitch the 6th, 7th, 8th ect and get the highest leverage outs thereby giving you a chance to hold or take the lead. Having a good pitcher makes your team better. There's a self fulfilling prophecy element here. Varland, Duran, and Jax weren't rentals right? The rationale for moving Duran can't be "we're gonna suck regardless," if you've chosen to take steps to ensure that you're going to suck.

Money saved? How does that positively affect the team and/or this fan base? Money not spent now doesn't become available at a later date, no matter how hard fans try to delude themselves into believing otherwise. Before the deadline purge the Twins were neck and neck with Baltimore and a few games up on Sacramento, with Chicago already a virtual lock to "win," the best odds of securing the number 1 pick. If what you're suggesting is true, that Falvey intentionally gave up his best bullpen arms, all with multiple years of control, because he wanted to race Baltimore and Sacramento for the 2nd best odds, he should've been gone yesterday. That's insane... We're declaring the rental swaps a W for the Twins despite none of the returns having seen any MLB action whatsoever. Ok.... Bradley had a 6.61 ERA in 6 starts with MN last year. This was after being demoted in TB. Go ahead and dog on Jax if it makes you feel better about the swap, but he was a pretty damn dependable (if not borderline elite) RP the previous 3 seasons. His FIP during the 1sh half with MN was half of what his ERA was, so do with that what you will. Hell, even though his TB tenure got off to a rough start he still posted solid numbers. If you ignore how bad Abel was for the rest of 2025 I'm sure that single start in Philly is encouraging haha. Expecting him to be a front of the rotation guy is a lot. They gave up 2.5 years of an elite bullpen arm so Abel might have to at least be a solid middle-ish guy, especially if Tait's defense won't keep him at C. They're paying Correa to not be here. The Twins are essentially paying $10M to play Brooks Lee at SS. That trade sucks. WS or bust is massively flawed logic if we're talking about purging controlled talent.

Well, at least 2 teams just agreed that they're essentially the same value, so what other piece are you moving Jackson for? Another Eeles non-prospect type? What's the point? Because they're not representative of production you should expect moving forward....

Again, he had a 2 week stretch where he "racked up," some XBHs last season. He only had 100ish PAs; that mini streak carried his season. He turns 30 in a few weeks, he has 440 career PAs and 420 of those are well below average offensively, even for a C. Vazquez would've seen 250-300 PAs last year as an absolute black hole. in the lineup This club wants to split time evenly at C. A bigger deal like IKF? Which salary are they trying to dump now?

Sure, you can K 35% of the time, but if you're gonna OPS in the high 500s/low 600s that's going to drag your team down offensively. Clemens was terrible outside of May last season. Similarly, Jackson clustered some XBHs during a 2 week span in what was a very SSS overall. He was pretty much the same hitter production-wise pre and post that 11 game stretch. Begging for a repeat hot streak from an otherwise poor hitter seems like poor strategy to me, especially if you're planning on giving him 250-300 PAs.

Idc about Eeles. I do care about locking a subpar performer into a roster spot.

Keirsey was unplayable. That's an insanely low bar to clear. Idk how Jackson's K rate in the mid 30s (I'm probably being too generous here) is sustainable.

Is that what they're getting though? This looks like the C equivalent of Kody Clemens; nice couple weeks after coming up in July buoyed what was otherwise another unremarkable (even by C standards) offensive campaign.

We're talking about 1,000 PAs. Sure, highest leverage can do the most damange positively or negatively, and that's going to be your smallest sample size, but if you want to start parsing it down to single events, his 5 highest WPA totals were nearly identical to his lowest 5. I'm not really buying the bad luck/lack of opportunities argument if the top mirrors the bottom in a sample size that spans 2+ seasons. Of course Wallner is more valuable via BTV, like you said, he costs a fraction of what Larnach does and that doesn't change for the next few years. Is anybody actually arguing otherwise? As far as the "narrative," stuff goes, your comparison seemed rather slanted, so I pushed back. If that means I'm pushing an agenda then guilty as charged I suppose.

This is also the first time Falvey has been squarely in the crosshairs. They've gone through multiple training staffs, Levine departed, Rocco is out, the current assistant staff is almost entirely new. Falvey (outside of our billionaire overlords) is the lone holdover. There could definitely be some self preservation at work here, and it's an easy card to play given how unanimously the Pohlads are hated.

Kody Clemens from June 1st through the end of the season - .203/.267/.402 His April sucked too. Outside of 10 days in May he was borderline unplayable (unless of course you're the the Twins) which is why teams like Philly and Detroit don't regret their decision to cut bait. If we're talking about 1B defense or leadership we've lost the plot. Handing this guy 1B, even as the strong side of a platoon, has disaster written all over it. "If the alternative is going after someone like Ty France in free agency — and, let's be honest, it probably is — why not?" Because Ty France was actually a good Major League hitter at one point before signing with the Twins? At least with that uninspiring signing there was some track record to point to. What's the Kody Clemens selling point? "Hey, if we keep feeding him enough PAs, maybe at age 30 he'll only be a solidly below average offensive 1B instead of waiver wire fodder." What a joke...

Wallner is at 0 WPA for his career, his stats also start to cave as the game situation tightens up. I think it was Ashbury that dug up the numbers, but they matched the eye test. Saying Wallner is neutral on the bases while Larnach is below average is hyperbolic, they're within a single run year or year as far as baserunning runs or run value. Neither steals enough or is aggressive enough on the bases for anything else to matter. They're basically the same player in that category. Wallner's top speed might exceed Larnach's, but it sure isn't helping him in the field. Either his reads are poor and/or he takes too long to reach that speed because his range is awful, even playing one of the smallest RFs in baseball half the time. The arm strength isn't enough to make up for his lack of range either. He's going to give up way more hits failing to get to balls than he'll ever wipe away throwing out runners trying to advance. Daulton Varsho was starting in CF for Toronto during the WS with one of the worst arms (post recovery) in baseball because he could still get to everything. Both guys are negative defenders who do nothing on the bases. Their BB rate is nearly identical. Larnach will hit for a slightly higher average and K less often, Wallner will hit more HRs plus like you said he costs less and has more years of team control.

Idk how basic communication (not outlining an exact offseason plan) with fans would be tipping their hand. If they're moving Ryan and/or Lopez it's for financial reasons. If we know that, other GMs definitely know it, and if Falvey plans to move one or both of those guys I'd rather have a bidding war as opposed to some Lakers/Mavs fiasco. I very much doubt Falvey is in the dark. He's paid to be a mouthpiece for ownership, and that's what he's doing. I do get a little chuckle out of him starting to subtly put some distance between himself and ownership now that the mob has turned more of their attention towards him. I think it's safe to assume that no news is bad news at this point, but rip the band aid off if that's the case. At worst you give yourself a longer runway to maybe soothe some angst before you need a**** in seats. The complete lack of communication a) builds false hope and b) allows fans to fill in the blanks with potentially whatever worst case scenario they can imagine.

Yeah, I don't think anybody is eyeing the WS in 2026, but there's a pretty wide chasm between where the roster currently sits vs. a continued teardown. Sure, Alcala and Celestino flamed out, but they weren't exactly a bag of balls so Idk how easily replaceable Pressly really was. That 2019 bullpen was turnstile beyond Rogers, May, and Duffey.

I don't think anybody is asking for a hard number, or to be in on meetings, they just want a general sense of direction. Provide actual ****ing responses to legitimate questions rather than meaningless word salad. They dealt from a position that was far from a strength/surplus, for 2 prospects, during a time you're trying to contend.

The chart for 2024 revenue vs. 2025 payroll had Miami north of $300M in revenue and south of $100M in payroll. A $17M profit would be shockingly low. Idk how much stock any of us should put in those numbers but yeah, it's borderline impossible for these teams to actually lose money in any given year, let alone rack up $500M in debt over a 3-4 year period.

The Correa and Donaldson contracts were outside of the norm as far as years/dollars go, but the payroll didn't really budge much, they were consistently in the 16-20 range every year. It's not like the Pohlads actually pushed in and decided to go for it. Concur about the limited partners. It's just a quick cash infusion in conjunction with slashing payroll which should allow the billionaire overlords the ability to pay down the debt + interest while still hitting that oh so important profit number. The only real hope is that once they've managed to dig out of whatever the debt is, they sell the ****ing team and disappear.

One step further, it's impossible that Miami is losing money. The notion that these franchises somehow aren't printing $$ is laughable. There was real, reported interest in the Twins at $1.5B, that doesn't happen if the asset is bleeding money...