KirbyDome89

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Feels a little early for the "best shape of his life," type articles.

A team that had played at a 90+ win pace the previous 3 seasons breaking through and winning the WS was historic. Ok... Oh, a shrinking budget isn't the motivating factor for selling Jax or Duran? Falvey just couldn't resist the chance to gamble on a high 1st round pick in next years draft? C'mon. Yeah, go ask 76ers fans about the process, Ben Simmons, Embiid, ect. Lots of good vibes there. Hey look at Houston, now go look at Pittsburgh. They should be loaded right? All that losing, they should have a treasure trove of young talent. Is "tank like Houston," the new "be the Rays," on this board? Are the Twins going to develop all this young talent after tanking? This FO has a pretty poor track record of identifying and developing talent. Is ownership going to spend, not only to keep that home grown talent around, but to supplement around that group? This part gets conveniently left out of the conversation all the time. Houston went from a bottom 3 payroll to being consistently in the top 10, sometimes top 5.

Austin Riley posted more WAR by HIMSELF than the Twins entire starting IF, including C. Of the top five WAR producers amongst the two teams, 4 of them were Braves, and Acuna didn't even play the 2nd half. I don't care enough to compare how similar the pitching situation was, because I don't have to when the gap between position players is this wide. The position player talent isn't even in the same stratosphere. I'm embarrassed for you at this point...

The Braves had 3 guys (would've been 4 if Acuna didn't get hurt) post the type of season for which Twins fans want to immortalize Buxton. Dansby Swanson wasn't among that trio, and he still posted as much WAR as Jeffers, Lewis, and Wallner combined. Do we really need to continue down this path? Acuna getting hurt and Atlanta winning the WS is a testament to HOW GOOD THEIR ROSTER WAS. So this FO just blew up a WS caliber roster, but it's ok because they weren't going to make the playoffs last season? Somebody should've told Atlanta about that strategy, it's about time they start unloading some of those guys with years of team control left. I don't think selling rentals at the deadline during a lost season constitues tanking. Putting a position player on the mound in the 8th inning down 10 runs isn't the same thing as putting that player on the mound to start a game. As for the arms with team control, I think it was a combo of cost savings and an area they (Falvey) felt they could rebuild on the fly.

Expecting Keaschall to be better feels like a lot, I'd definitely take the under, which doesn't mean he's crashing out, but I absolutely don't expect him to post a mid 800s OPS for the entire season. Jeffers had one of his best offensive seasons as a "starter," last year. Idk how much more you can reasonably expect from him either.

So an uber talented roster experiences injuries/suspensions and is able to weather the storm via trades and win a WS. What does that have to do with the Twins? Are you trying to argue that they're a similar roster? I hope not. "I still stand by trading all the relievers was to tank for better draft picks in a really good draft." That's a direct quote from one of your posts in another thread. Look at the bolded, you're contradicting yourself within your own paragraphs at this point. Still waiting on that article btw...

Sub easily replaced for overrated and we're in agreement.

Vastly different. Atlanta was a 90+ win team for multiple seasons, with elite young talent leading the charge for years prior to that WS title. They continued to be a good team well after that run and despite a down 2025 they are likely still a very good team next season. The Twins had missed the postseason entirely 3 of the previous 4 seasons and they were playing middling at best baseball even at the ASB. It's apples and oranges. Uh huh, and how many of those teams in that group of 13 sold 5 or more MLB players at the deadline? Do you have a link to that article where Zoll and Falvey are on record saying they sold off the bullpen because they knew it'd net them a top 3 pick? Lol, yeah, they wanted a top 3 pick when they went in knowing they had the 2nd best odds for #1. If the Twins ended up at 4 we'd be hearing about how top 4 was the goal. I'll say it one last time, sitting here now, and shifting the motivating factor for the teardown to draft position (or allotment?) is just post hoc nonsense.

I said they were DQ'd from the lottery, which they were. I'm looking at Baseball Reference right now. On July 31st, the teams with a worse record than the Twins: AL -Chicago, Sacramento, Baltimore & NL - Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona was 51-58 while Minnesota sat as 51-57 so yes, basically tied. Since Colorado and Washington were ineligible for the lottery, that means the Twins were sitting at 6/7 as far as odds go. I'll ask you again, do you believe that a team that sold it's starting SS, starting LF, starting super utility player + a solid RP and whatever Paddack was competes at the same level moving forward when none of the returns were going to see time at the major league level? I don't. If a team that sells 20% of it's roster without adding any viable MLB talent continues to chug along at their post sale pace, and then a bunch of teams with low odds all happen to "win," the lottery and stuff the top 6 picks subsequently sending our Twins spiraling to a pick in the middle of the pack...I mean....what are we doing here? I'm not down on having the 3rd pick. I'm down on the idea that it was calculated, at least as far as the upper echelon of the bullpen selloff is concerned. It's a strong class, but hey, if we clear out our best bullpen arms, all of whom have years of control remaining, maybe we can lose enough games in 2025 to maybe get a higher draft pick, to maybe then sign someone under slot and throw the excess $$ at a comp pick that may or may not even be on the board when we pick again. Sure, going into the lottery process with the 2nd best odds. That absolutely does not mean their goal on July 31st was to land a top 3 pick in the draft. I want the Twins to get better too. I don't believe that gutting a bullpen and attempting to patch a new one together on the fly, with a limited budget, while allegedly "looking to build around the core," achieves that goal.

So now it's the allotment? They allegedly blew up their bullpen in 2025 for a draft class that's highly variable, but the real value is the extra spending power they'll have to overpay for a comp pick they have zero idea will be there when it's their turn to make another selection? Wow. Colorado and Washington were disqualified from the lottery. The Twins were basically tied with AZ for the 6th worse record on the day of the trade deadline. If the season ended that day, the worst they could've picked was 7th, which would've netted them a FV 60 prospect (same as picking at 3) if that's what they wanted. The Twins had already sold 4 rentals + Correa, all of whom were seeing regular playing time. They were going to maintain their disappointing level of play (up to that point) for the remainder of the season after selling 20% of the roster? Doubtful. Finishing 13th is/was a worst case scenario; they could've won the 1st pick with a 2% chance too if we want to argue extremes. Miami dropping from 9th to 13th is meaningless.

You were just arguing that "tanking," for better draft position was such an underrated part of the fire sale last season. If the draft is 9 deep, what was the point of dismantling the entire bullpen at the deadline when the Twins were already sitting with the 4th best odds for the #1 pick?

A declining Correa posted more WAR in 50 games with Houston last year than Brooks Lee could must the last 2 seasons. Was Correa worth his salary? No. Was he a much better option than what the Twins are going to roll out at SS on Opening Day this season? Undoubtedly, yes. If the Twins take that $20M+ and opt to actually reinvest it in the on field product I'm happy to reassess, but that seems like a pipe dream at this point. The Twins downgraded (rather significantly) at SS, and one of the highest individual salaries (what a joke) on the team is the person they're paying to not play that position. You asked why anybody other than Bradley would've been up last season? They were each pretty terrible in limited action but neither the players nor the team would've been better served keeping those guys in AAA. No clue why you're using Jax's career ERA, which includes his rough stint as a SP. His career ERA as a RP drops into the low 3s. I'll point it out again, he had a 4.50 ERA and a 2.05 FIP during the 1st half with MN last season. Some guys can/will skew to one side or the other, but that gap is enormous. You think Varland and Jax didn't make it as SPs because they lacked durability? Hard disagree. Well, viable SP and SP for the 2026 Minnesota Twins probably aren't the same thing. Bradley will get every opportunity to prove he's the former, but as it stands he's a fringe guy. Assuming he can just step into the bullpen and match Jax feels like a stretch.

Abel and Roden shouldn't have gotten any MLB run? Idk what you're arguing here. Ok, 6 starts with the Twins and nearly 400 innings of pedestrian at best production in total. Is that not a fairly significant sample size? Jax has been far more valuable the last few seasons. If Bradley is going to match that level of contribution drastic changes need to occur. If that money is reinvested maybe (and there's zero indication that will happen) otherwise like I said you're just spending $10M to downgrade at SS.

Estimated $8M, which is a bargain. He wouldn't have to be a closer, he could pitch the 6th, 7th, 8th ect and get the highest leverage outs thereby giving you a chance to hold or take the lead. Having a good pitcher makes your team better. There's a self fulfilling prophecy element here. Varland, Duran, and Jax weren't rentals right? The rationale for moving Duran can't be "we're gonna suck regardless," if you've chosen to take steps to ensure that you're going to suck.

Money saved? How does that positively affect the team and/or this fan base? Money not spent now doesn't become available at a later date, no matter how hard fans try to delude themselves into believing otherwise. Before the deadline purge the Twins were neck and neck with Baltimore and a few games up on Sacramento, with Chicago already a virtual lock to "win," the best odds of securing the number 1 pick. If what you're suggesting is true, that Falvey intentionally gave up his best bullpen arms, all with multiple years of control, because he wanted to race Baltimore and Sacramento for the 2nd best odds, he should've been gone yesterday. That's insane... We're declaring the rental swaps a W for the Twins despite none of the returns having seen any MLB action whatsoever. Ok.... Bradley had a 6.61 ERA in 6 starts with MN last year. This was after being demoted in TB. Go ahead and dog on Jax if it makes you feel better about the swap, but he was a pretty damn dependable (if not borderline elite) RP the previous 3 seasons. His FIP during the 1sh half with MN was half of what his ERA was, so do with that what you will. Hell, even though his TB tenure got off to a rough start he still posted solid numbers. If you ignore how bad Abel was for the rest of 2025 I'm sure that single start in Philly is encouraging haha. Expecting him to be a front of the rotation guy is a lot. They gave up 2.5 years of an elite bullpen arm so Abel might have to at least be a solid middle-ish guy, especially if Tait's defense won't keep him at C. They're paying Correa to not be here. The Twins are essentially paying $10M to play Brooks Lee at SS. That trade sucks. WS or bust is massively flawed logic if we're talking about purging controlled talent.

Well, at least 2 teams just agreed that they're essentially the same value, so what other piece are you moving Jackson for? Another Eeles non-prospect type? What's the point? Because they're not representative of production you should expect moving forward....

Again, he had a 2 week stretch where he "racked up," some XBHs last season. He only had 100ish PAs; that mini streak carried his season. He turns 30 in a few weeks, he has 440 career PAs and 420 of those are well below average offensively, even for a C. Vazquez would've seen 250-300 PAs last year as an absolute black hole. in the lineup This club wants to split time evenly at C. A bigger deal like IKF? Which salary are they trying to dump now?

Sure, you can K 35% of the time, but if you're gonna OPS in the high 500s/low 600s that's going to drag your team down offensively. Clemens was terrible outside of May last season. Similarly, Jackson clustered some XBHs during a 2 week span in what was a very SSS overall. He was pretty much the same hitter production-wise pre and post that 11 game stretch. Begging for a repeat hot streak from an otherwise poor hitter seems like poor strategy to me, especially if you're planning on giving him 250-300 PAs.

Idc about Eeles. I do care about locking a subpar performer into a roster spot.

Keirsey was unplayable. That's an insanely low bar to clear. Idk how Jackson's K rate in the mid 30s (I'm probably being too generous here) is sustainable.

Is that what they're getting though? This looks like the C equivalent of Kody Clemens; nice couple weeks after coming up in July buoyed what was otherwise another unremarkable (even by C standards) offensive campaign.

We're talking about 1,000 PAs. Sure, highest leverage can do the most damange positively or negatively, and that's going to be your smallest sample size, but if you want to start parsing it down to single events, his 5 highest WPA totals were nearly identical to his lowest 5. I'm not really buying the bad luck/lack of opportunities argument if the top mirrors the bottom in a sample size that spans 2+ seasons. Of course Wallner is more valuable via BTV, like you said, he costs a fraction of what Larnach does and that doesn't change for the next few years. Is anybody actually arguing otherwise? As far as the "narrative," stuff goes, your comparison seemed rather slanted, so I pushed back. If that means I'm pushing an agenda then guilty as charged I suppose.

This is also the first time Falvey has been squarely in the crosshairs. They've gone through multiple training staffs, Levine departed, Rocco is out, the current assistant staff is almost entirely new. Falvey (outside of our billionaire overlords) is the lone holdover. There could definitely be some self preservation at work here, and it's an easy card to play given how unanimously the Pohlads are hated.

Kody Clemens from June 1st through the end of the season - .203/.267/.402 His April sucked too. Outside of 10 days in May he was borderline unplayable (unless of course you're the the Twins) which is why teams like Philly and Detroit don't regret their decision to cut bait. If we're talking about 1B defense or leadership we've lost the plot. Handing this guy 1B, even as the strong side of a platoon, has disaster written all over it. "If the alternative is going after someone like Ty France in free agency — and, let's be honest, it probably is — why not?" Because Ty France was actually a good Major League hitter at one point before signing with the Twins? At least with that uninspiring signing there was some track record to point to. What's the Kody Clemens selling point? "Hey, if we keep feeding him enough PAs, maybe at age 30 he'll only be a solidly below average offensive 1B instead of waiver wire fodder." What a joke...