mike8791

Nice article, but I think there is one glaring omission. If Lee's value is so high wouldn't he be more useful to the Twins as a trade piece to acquire a #1/2 starter. I've seen mention that the Marlins in particular need a SS and thus Lee could very well be sufficient(or with minor additions) to nab Luzardo. With the Twins supposedly in a win-now mode, doesn't it make sense for the FO to explore such a deal now? There is no clear position for Lee with Lewis, Correa, and Julien set. Julien might substitute for Lee but the latter would generate much more interest as a SS. I would hate to lose Lee but if the Twins want to be serious contenders for WS players, this is exactly the type of trade they should be making!

Nice article! Glad someone on TD brought up Law's comments. They were quite a slap in the face to FO's faith that Paddack could step right into Twins rotation. But, as you said, realistically, his ceiling is more likely Maeda's than Gray's. Which brings me to my quarrel with your comments. Based on 2023 this team showed potential to move into the top tier. You can forget about that hope if their plan is to fill Gray's spot with the likes of SWR, Varland, Festa or one of the mid tier FA's. If they don't plan on a better add than Paddock, this team will be headed in the wrong direction. A Lopez-like trade is a necessity. We have the position players/rookies to get it done. This should be the top goal of the offseason.

Adding to Twins offseason woes: MLBTR reports Cards signing Gray today. No surprise, but still we have lost 2 of our top 3(or4) starters. Not a good way to start the offseason, especially if FO/ownership intends to surpass last years' results.

Nice analysis, but as others have pointed out, the Twins OF is a mess! Wallner still unproven - will he follow path of Miranda or continue to impress? Still a big question mark. CF is a bigger Q mark. Dreaming Buxton there is a fool's errand at this point. The Twins need a capable replacement for Taylor, either Taylor or via trade for someone like Kiermeier. Result: no way can they trade Kepler. We have no one else in org who is even close. The IF is in better shape, assuming Julien and Lewis can be expected to play at least 75% of time at 3B and 2B. I would resign Farmer to cover absences. He and Castro can be the 2 major subs in the IF. This leaves Polanco as our best trade asset. Will he alone bring in a suitable #2 starter? No, but he can be a major portion of a trade, along with a top minor league pitcher and maybe someone like Larnach, Vazquez, or a top 10 position player(but not top 3). I'd go for Glasnow or maybe one of Miami's good young pitchers(after all, it worked once). While this is off topic a bit, I have to express keen disappointment in the team's plan to cut salary. Here is a division winner + one playoff series victory with a roster ranked 6th among the30 ML teams. And yet they seem to be backtracking. Shame on you Joe Pohlad! A cut of up to 25% of payroll is a real slap in the face to Twins fans who have waited patiently for a true WS contender to emerge. There is a deep FA pool of good-excellent starters who stand a good chance of replacing Gray without giving up a valuable piece of the current roster. While Polanco might be considered a luxury, in addition to CF, the Twins have no reliable starter at 1B or DH. His bat would fit nicely into a lineup clearly lacking in clutch, contact hitters. With a $125MM or so payroll, what are the chances of the Twins advancing further in the playoffs in 2024? Sure they benefitted greatly last year by the emergence of Lewis, Julien and Wallner, but can we count on all 3 to continue to progress? Are there any prospects on the 40 man who look capable of equalling 2023 newcomers? Yes, this might be a slightly negative take, but the goal next year should be to build on 23's record and improve on it. With a limited budget, that prospect looks improbable as of now.

While I don't particularly like playing the blame game with individual performances, especially Gray and Jeffers, your #1 point really nailed it: : this lineup could not produce runs. Like the first half of the season, the playoffs saw a return to the all-or-nothing pattern. With the exception of Correa and Julien, their lineup could not produce runs outside of HRs. The big questions for the off season is: how do we get more professional hitters into the lineup and how do we change our offense philosophy? While notable offensive improvement in the 2nd half was sparked by newcomers Julien, Lewis and Wallner and Kepler's surprising rebound, this lineup had too many weaknesses, especially in the pressure-packed playoffs. Any offseason activity has to start with adding a cleanup hitter with proven ability to drive in runs. Guys like Bellinger, Soto, or Goldschmidt would fit the bill. And replacement of the hitting coach should be equally important. If we rely on the rooks to continue to improve and hope for a Buxton/Kirillof/ Correa rebound, I believe 2024 will be no better than this year. There is a lot to look forward to, as many have said: Strong rotation(though one more solid#2/3 starter is essential), a stronger pen(again, some reliable closer-type to share w/Duran would be desirable) and one or two from AAA making a significant contribution gives us reason for optimism. But this is all for naught if the offense is not fixed. This should be at the very top of Falvine's list.

Couldn't agree more, Nick! What good is great pitching if your offense is AWOL. While this rotation is the deepest we've seen in many years(probably since 1991), great starts in our last 2 playoff series did little good. And the comparisons are chillingly the same this year: a hot and cold offense that can explode but still comes up short in too many close games and a shaky pen headed by a very vulnerable-looking closer, followed by our other pseudo "shutdown" arms(I'm looking at you Jax, Pagan, and Thielbar to a lesser extent). Yes, the Twins offense's numbers look much better post-All Star but they still have the very disturbing habit of failing to support good pitching(Gray is the obvious example here). In the playoffs there will be no weak pitchers to feast on. This lineup has no real sparkplug, save Lewis< who can be labeled a clutch hitter. If he is absent or not fully recovered to pre-injury performance, name one other player you can count on to deliver a key hit?? It should have been easy to answer Correa and Bux, but that hope is greatly diminished by now, I'm afraid. Solano, Castro and Farmer are great role players but can they be counted on in pressure situations? This team's propensity to K in clutch situations has become a regular signature of the 2023 season. Will it change in October? Not all doom and gloom here. I expect them to break their horrible streak, assuming Rocco is smart enough to bring in guys like Varland, Maeda, and hopefully Stewart/Paddack in place of Jax and, yes, even Duran if necessary. But unless this offense takes their collective hands away from their necks, I find it unlikely this team can pull off a series win. Hope I'm dead wrong!!

While I'm usually in agreement with Chief, I can't be on this post. Instead, the real reasons for this loss and losing 3 of 4 are the following: 1. Using Jax in critical situations. As his 10 losses indicate, I don't care how much "stuff" he has, this old stat brings his ineffectiveness into sharp relief. Last year he allowed 40% of IRS - a terrible % - and this year, while not knowing his IRS%, the 10 losses are all I need to see to want to restrict his use to non-critical situations, especially in the playoffs. Duran, Thielbar and Pagan have been far superior, Varland, too(in SSS), If Stewart is ready, and even Paddack, Jax should be at the end of the list. 2. What most seem to miss is in the last 4 games, this offensive juggernaut has a grand total of 21 hits!! They were lucky to win even one game with this paltry total. This offense continues to be all or nothing, with a few explosions sprinkled into a very few games. It's pretty obvious, this offense will be the worst among the 6 playoff contenders, unless the hot and cold rooks blow hot again. Obviously, it's too much to expect Correa/Buxton to carry the team, and the remainder of the lineup is average at best. They badly needed a jolt from the FO by Aug. 1st, but we all know what happened then. In summary, yes, they will make the playoffs(mainly due to Cleveland's collapse) and yes, with Gray and Lopez starting, their chances to break the dreaded streak look better than in years, but this is still a flawed team that blew the chance to add much needed pen help in FA and the trade deadline and way over-estimated the contribution of their "super stars". Hope I'm wrong, and the team surprises in October, but the odds are heavily against it.

Terrific article, Nick. The 2022 deadline trades were exactly what was needed at the time. At least the FO recognized the gaping holes and made some dramatic moves to increase their odds of making the post-season. The fact these moves backfired was certainly unfortunate, but trying and failing is far better than sitting on your hands. Which brings us to 2023. I have said in previous posts that the FO's failure both in the offseason and trade deadline not to augment a very shaky pen was a firable offense. Several closer-types were available as FA. Lesser arms, but improvements nonetheless were available mid-season, yet this smug FO did nothing, even though the pen was decimated by injuries(Stewart, Thielbar), refused to see Jax's uneven performance with runners on base, realized Duran was a shadow of his first half self, and had failed to produce one reliever in their 7 years capable of consistently shutting down a team in the late innings. Just this year we have seen guys like Winder, Sands, Ortega, Balozavic, et. al., fail miserably as fill-ins. I am truly amazed at the refusal of TD fans not to understand how badly this FO has failed the team and its fans! Let's hope Joe P has more guts than Jim had and fire these clowns.

Smack on, Lou! This failure in the offseason is a firable offense. They saw even after the Lopez acquisition last year that he was unreliable. So going into the 2023 season they had one "closer-type" reliever in Duran - and he came with the risk of the dreaded sophomore slump. Fortunately, he has been a lot more than a one year wonder, but without reinforcements, he has deteriorated recently. To rely on Jax and Thielbar as late-inning relievers was a high risk move. The 35 year old Thielbar was an excellent signing but it shouldn't be surprising at his age that he's succumbed to injuries, nor should it be a surprise that with his 40% Inheritred Runners Scored rate in 2022, Jax has proven to be shaky in late inning critical situations. The FO has been fortunate to see somewhat of a Pagan renaissance and Stewart emerging from the scrap heap, but to expect guys like Sands, Moran, Winder and Blaze to be positive reinforcements was just a pipe dream. Granted, the big failure this year has been the offense but in the middle of a pennant race(and hopefully a playoff) it isn't too surprising that the starters have fallen off, thereby putting more pressure on the pen. Short of adding a Hader, it seems more wishful thinking now to expect a meaningful addition to the relief staff before the trade deadline. If only they did more in FA!! Shame on you, Falvine. I hope Joe iswatching carefully.

Let's hope some other MLB clubs are reading this. Balazovic would be the perfect player, along with one or two of Larnach/Wallner/Varland or SWR to entice the Pods to part with Bader or the Pirates to give up Bednar for these are the type of shutdown arms the Twins need for success in Aug/Sept/Oct. Perhaps one of these clubs could buy high on Blaz, but for the Twins to rely on him in their pennant push, would not be wise. Instead, he slots in with the likes of Pagan, Winder, Moran, et. al. as filler. That's it - and that's not enough to help this team gain a playoff spot..

This FO has almost always(Lopez the one, unfortunate exception) avoided major moves to strengthen the closer end of the bullpen. Some on TD argue this is the correct course as relievers future production can be so unpredictable. And yet, with the Twins hanging on to 1st with a shaky 1-1/2 game lead, the argument for bolstering the shutdown end of the pen by the trade deadline is compelling. First, the Twins are too heavily reliant on Duran for critical situations. This heavy dependence has, to a certain extent lately, looked to weaken his effectiveness. More importantly, the current #2 man, Jax, has had an alarming tendency to allow inherited runners to score at the most inopportune times. Can he really be counted on as a shutdown reliever in critical games, particularly in a playoff game? And who else currently on the roster would you trust? Yes, Thielbar and Stewart might return in time, but to count on that happening is just too chancy at this juncture. With Robertson just traded, there are perhaps two other relievers - Hader and Bednar - that would fit the bill. Yes, the price is high, but we do have surplus major league talent to trade - LH OFs and middle IFs. Wouldn't a package of, say, Polanco, Larnach and maybe Varland land Hader or Bednar? As things stand now, these are surplus players who might slot nicely into a team like the Padres. Sweeten the package with a top 10-20 prospect and pehaps the Pods would add Snell to the package(after all, you never know what Preller might do). Do I expect a major deal like this to happen? No, but it would certainly give this team a positive jolt for the stretch run!

After winning 9 of 11, there is no doubt we can allow ourselves a bit of complacency now, but let's not fool ourselves. There are still a lot of holes on this team! Kirillof, Julien and Kepler have been hot. They have carried the offense during this streak. Looking at the rest of the season thru rose-colored glasses, yes, the offense might stay robust IF they continue and Polanco and Lewis come back soon and start contributing immediately. What is the likelihood of this happening? But if the FO really desires to ensure a Central Division title and break the horrific playoff losing streak, they must act boldly this deadline. Adding a bat like Goldschmidt, Bellinger, or Lane Thomas will be necessary to really improve the odds. Sure, we can hope Correa/Buxton will rediscover their batting stroke, but depending on this happening is a fool's journey. We have 100 games to affirm this unlikelihood. We have 32 years of diddlin' around. Time to man up and go for the gold! s.ed

Sorry Derek! The Twins have one reliable closer-type(if you think Jax should be added, look at last night + his Inherited Runners Scored stats since last year). They should be targeting one of Hader, Bednar or Robertson. Period. Middle relievers are fine for the regular season, but in the stretch run and playoffs, you need 3 shutdown relievers with a proven track record in big-game situations. Yes, they whiffed on the Lopez acquisition last year, but their thinking was correct. The offense is coming to life. More importantly, the team is showing some life coming from behind(a rare occurrence over the last decade). When you have a chance for the playoffs, go big or go home!

LA Vikes Fan: My suggestion was Larnach or Wallner plus Miranda. That's two potential starters for the Nats. I think Varland, Winder or SWR might have to b e added, but only to sweeten the deal for A Nat RP.

Would add Miranda to the list. Larnach or Wallner (I prefer wallner) + Miranda could net someone like Lane Thomas, especially if we were to throw in a #11-20 pitching prospect.

Nice, precise analysis. Up until this year(or, more precisely Aug. 1, 2022), I couldn't distinguish between the FO's failures or the coaching staff's for the team's underperformance in 2021-22. As you mention, the 2021/22 seasons foundered on the pen's weaknesses - a fact squarely on the shoulders of the FO. They refused to spend any money on FA relievers who could have appreciably improved a pen that was subpar. But at least at the last trade deadline, for the first time in their 6 years, the FO made some trades to bolster a beleagured rotation(Mahle) and pen(Lopez), which only partly made up for their perplexing trade of Rogers and failure to sign any FA but Joe Smith. Then they follow up this past season by trading for Lopez, resigning CC, signing Vazquez,and greatly improving depth thru addition of Taylor, Farmer, Solano, and Gallo(??). With this FO turnaround, yes, the heat should be on The Rock to get this team into the playoffs and end the long winless streak,. Anything less, and ownership should get rid of Rocco first, and the FO quickly thereafter. Here's hoping the classic Passive Pohlad era has ended with the elevation of Joe. No guarantees, but for the first time in ages, some hopeful signs have emerged. As SGD states, the negatives on Baldy's side - lack of fundamentals, inability to manufacture runs, slavish attention to a formulaic approach to the rotation, going along with FO's inexplicable attachment to underperforming players,e.g., Pagan, Colome, Sands, rather than putting the 26 best players on the active list, and any lack of overt leadership/fire that might inspire a team rather than go along with the "Minnesota Nice" attitude that we've seen since TK left- should leave little doubt that if 2023 shows signs of repeating the last 2 seasons, Rocco must take the fall. If the first 3 months of the new season shows no great improvement, he must be replaced. No more excuses can be accepted.

Nick, prior to ST, you had an article on risk FO was taking by not signing one or two veteran relievers with good track records. I agreed with that, but wonder why you are changing your opinion now? The risk is still great. Yes, Duran looks like a bonafide closer, but there's always the worrisome sophomore jinx that looms. I agree that Lopez is a real key to success. If he proves that his post-trade work with the Twins was a fluke, that is a big plus. But the risk is still there. After all, until last year, he was not even on anyone's radar as a closer. Which Lopez will emerge in 2023? There is a fair amount of risk here. Going down your list, Thielbar and Jax are probably now #3/4 in pen pecking order. Jax's lofty rating is worrisome; after all, he had an Inherited Runner's Scored % of 42% last year. That is not what you want to see from a late inning reliever! I,too, like Thielbar, but at age 35 can he repeat 2022 performance? There is some risk here, too, Frankly, my hope is that Alcala emerges as a solid #3 pen arm ahead of these two, but can he rebound from serious injury? As for the last 3 arms in the pen - Pagan, Hoffman and Moran - the outlook is from somewhat below average to horrible, especially with the Rock's tendency to limit his starters IP. As many have mentioned, Maeda in the pen and Ober starting looks like a plus-plus but so far, no hint of that happening. Why Pagan is anywhere near a Twins dugout is mystifying. Seems like more of Falvey's hubris at work. Hoffman is a journeyman who has never succeeded at ML level, and Moran, despite his "stuff" continues to fight control(2 walks yesterday in one inning against Rays' subs). I'm obviously looking back the past 2 years at this FO's frustrating reluctance to add better depth to the pen - a fault that cost them dearly. I hope they and you are right in this bullpen being in the top 10 as currently constituted, but I'll take the under here. A playoff team is only as good as its weakest link and the pen, as well as recurring injuries, would seem a serious impediment to the 2023 Twins' success in even getting to the playoffs.

Nice optimistic article! But this guy couldn't last w/Cubs and so far is below replacement level w/twins. If he were with a rebuilding club, then sure, he is worth a risk. But the Twins are not rebuilding. Can they risk sending this guy out at the major league level? This optimism for the pen is based on hope for improvement, not performance. Not a bad thing if he were #8 in the pecking order with the 1-7 guys fairly solid. Unfortunately, half the bullpen, as it stands today, is in a similar category - Pagan, Moran, and Lopez. This currently does not have the look of a playoff-type bullpen.

I don't get it! To their credit, the FO added some real talent in the offseason - Correa, Lopez, Gallo, Vazquez, Taylor. As many have noted, barring a rerun of injuries like last year, the team's rotation has been greatly improved, the starting lineup looks capable of improvement, and the bench is much deeper. So why stop with the bullpen.? Any team that is committed to a successful run in the postseason should aim for a shutdown bulletin - 3 late-inning relievers who can do just that, even against teams like Houston and the Yanks. As you pointed out, Nick, we currently have Duran and lots of question marks. Lopez has shown great potential, but in one half of a season. No one else in this pen has shown that shutdown ability consistently. Jax allowed 42% of inherited runners to score, Thielbar is at an age where he could fall off the cliff, and the rest are just big question marks. After seeing the last 2 seasons torpedoed by ineffective relief, is it hubris that prevents this FO from spending an extra $5 -10MM to sign an established reliever like Chafin or Moore? Would either of these two bolster a pen that includes Pagan? Defending Falvey for doing nothing about the pen because of a better second half misses the point: the current Twins bullpen is relying very heavily on one reliever, Duran, to repeat last year's performance. An injury to him would be disastrous to hope for returning to the playoffs - and winning at least one game! I hope Falvey's bet pays off, but if not, by any reasonable accountability, his failure to act here is a fireable offense.

Mike Sixel: Remove four players currently in the roster? Yikes. Who are you willing to lose to take this chance? In addition to pagan? Huh! I mentioned signing one of the top 3 FA relievers remaining, and possibly take a chance of a high risk additional signing. Falling in love with all these prospects is a sure-fire way to continue our streak of 20 straight years of Not One Playoff Victory.

I find this topic equally fascinating - and frustating. Thank you, Brock, for bringing Falvey's comments to our attention. While Falvey has demonstrated the ability to consummate trades that have helped this club, namely by adding such arms as Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, Mahle, and now Lopez, as well as the pickup of Duran, along with some key FA signings as Cruz and (hopefully Vazquez), he has been strangely quiet on the reliever front. I say "strange" for a number of reasons: 1. In the 2021/2022 offseason, despite the obvious weaknesses in the 2021 pen and a number of highly regarded FA relievers in the 2021/2022 offseason, the FO signed exactly one FA reliever - Joe Smith, who was released mid-season. Falvey's response was the (rightly) much-maligned trade of their best reliever, Rogers, for an injury-riddled Paddock and a marginal reliever in Pagan. When Pagan flamed out, the FO belatedly traded for the O's Lopez on August 1st, well after Pagan had proven his ineffectiveness earlier, especially against Cle. Falvine's inactivity in the reliever FA market perhaps was as big a contributor to late season collapse as all the injuries. 2. The current offseason shows again the dichotomy in Falvey's planning. By adding Correa, Vazquez, Gallo and Taylor, he has given fans hope for a bounceback season in 2023. Yes, I would like to have seen the addition of someone like Abreu or Josh Bell to protect against Kirillof's history of injuries, but that ship has sailed already. Guerriel should be on Falvey's speed dial, but that is very doubtful. The rotation is the strongest in years, as is the depth. But yet again, Falvey is seemingly ignoring the pen! 3. In these days of shorter starts, especially as espoused in Minnesota, an essential to winning a division title and even winning a playoff series or two is dependent on a shutdown bullpen, requiring a minimum of 3 late-inning relievers who have consistently shown the ability to strand runners and hold a lead. The alternative of one or two aces to start in a playoff is a pipe-dream, especially with Falvey's astounding failure to develop even one shutdown starter or reliever in 6 years of drafting coupled with his aversion to sign long term contracts with starters. In 2022 we enjoyed a great season from Duran and a surprising good one from 36 year-old Thielbar. Even if we assume Duran stays durable and avoids a sophomore jinx and Thielbar can dodge father time and continue to strand runners( 22% in 2022), who else can we rely on? Yes, Jax is frequently mentioned in the same breath but his 42% of IRS rate belies this high ranking. Lopez has the potential, but not the track record, to instill confidence in late-game situations. And the rest of the "designated pen" - Alcala, Pagan, Moran, Magill - are big question marks either due to injuries, lack of big league experience, or uneven big league performance. For those Twin fans maintaining that the bullpen makeup should stay in flux to give some blocked minor league starters, like Winder, Varland, SWR, Sands, etc., a chance to move up to the MLB pen by opening day, my question to you is: why would a FO already spending $150MM, the largest budget in team history, risk blowing the season(again) on what looks like an average, at best, bullpen? Amazingly, there are still several FA relievers out there(Chafin, Will Smith, Matt Moore) who are good(not sure) bets to raise the bullpen ceiling. Sign at least one of these 3 and maybe a higher risk bet on someone like Britton or Hand. Adding no more than $5-10MM a year on bolstering the pen is the kind of move a contending team should make. If Falvey is serious about going with what he has, that is a much bigger risk than signing 1 or 2 FAs for less than $10MM. If this team fails to make the playoffs again, Failvey should be fired. No more excuses!!

Got to join the nay chorus here! Sale(or Wacha, Cueto or any other #4/5-type starter) is not what we need. With a relatively healthy squad, we need a young, cost-controlled starter with #1 or 1A potential to pair with Ryan. Don't forget, 3 of our 5 potential starters' contracts expire after this season. We've had enough retreads during the Falvey regime to choke a horse. Guys like Sale, et.al., will not move the needle, I'm afraid. Finding a young, controllable pitcher will not be easy, but we have the excess personnel, including some minor leaguers, to put a very enticing package together. Sure, we might have to cough up one of Lee, Lewis, Martin, or even Miranda, plus one of out top 2 pitching prospects, and one of Kepler, Larnach or Kirillof, but isn't it worth the risk to solidify the top of the rotation for several years? I would feel much better aboiut contending with a Glasnow, May or even Montas pairing up with Ryan.

NO, raising the floor should not be a priority at this time. Agree, FO whiffed badly on not bolstering the lineup with guys like Abreu or Hill, This offense looks average at best unless everything breaks right - limited injuries, bounce-back seasons, etc. I'd rather the FO concentrate on adding at least one needle-mover than someone like McCutcheon. That's a very tough job now at this stage of the offseason but the Wonder Boys put themselves in this spot. Nibblin' around the edges is not the ticket to restoring fan interest..

This has been said many times so forgive me for saying it again: what the Twins lack is a solid #1/#2 to pair up with Ryan for several years. As things stand for 2023 the Twins rotation has a number of #2/3/4s in their rotation, but only for 2023. Lopez is not an ace-in-waiting, which is why Miami is willing to trade him. If you are going to give up solid assets like Arraez, Kepler, Larnach, Kirillof, etc., go for broke or just add pitching depth like Wacha, Cueto, etc. to supplement a fairly solid, but injury-prone staff. If you think this is a make or break year for the FO(which it should be) they need to think big. Unfortunately, they failed to add much to a depleted lineup that lost 2 of their 3 top run producers. Picking up a Gallo is a pure crap shoot and there aren't any other impact bats readily available. So the only way to move the needle now is to overpay for a young, contollable pitcher like Gallen, May, Gausman, who can slot in for several years as a stopper. The Twins now have excess at corner OF, mid infield, and yes, even catcher. Adding in one or two of our top 10 prospects will also be necessary, but that's whats needed to give meaning to the word "contender".

Thanks Nick for your usual lucid explanations! While all of us might bicker with the exact final rankings, I don't think anyone can seriously quarrel with your logic. I'm particularly struck by your high rating on Ober as being astute. As with most on this list, questions on his health are legitimate, but he's shown enough to rank only behind Ryan in importance to a solid rotation in the next several years. Agree completely. And if I polish my crystal ball, I can envision your top 5 including Buxton, Lewis, Lee, and Polanco, as well as Ryan. These rankings would highlight several important points that I hope the FO will be considering in the trade mart: 1. Including Ober in any trade for another starter makes no sense. 2. Arraez looks like a solid sell high candidate, partly because he has no set position, does not fit as a typical power-hitting 1B/DH and plays at a position of strength in the current org. 3.While the rotation looks better on paper than it has in years, trading Gray or Mahle just subtracts from the 2023's playoff capabilities. Unless this FO truly intends to forego playoff contention this year, they should not be looking to weaken what is now a certain strength of the team. The only case where this would make any sense is if their inclusion in a trade resulted in a.) adding a #1 potential starter to pair with Ryan(see below) ; or 2.) adding a sorely needed cleanup hitter so lacking in today's lineup(relying on Gallo here is a fool's errand). 4. With no top-of-the-rotation pitchers in the organization except Ryan, trading for a high upside starter seems the best use of current trade assets. While it might take an Arraez, Kepler, one of Lee, Julien or Lewis, and Varland or SWR to grab someone like May from LA, Darvish from SD, Gausman from TB, or Gallen from ARI, they should be looking at this type of addition now. Such an addition would be much more important than grabbing an upgrade to Farmer for a short period of time. And one last thought. If trading Jeffers to land an ace-type starter should be strongly considered, as Vazquez is clearly the regular and addition of a defensive-oriented backup is not a high hurdle.