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PopRiveter

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Everything posted by PopRiveter

  1. PopRiveter
    Would've been nice to have Sano's bat this inning. Nice of Dozier to work a walk
  2. PopRiveter
    At least only Wade Davis stands in the way of a rally.
  3. PopRiveter
    Having a lead sure feels good for ten minutes every now and then
  4. PopRiveter
    From what I hear and read, there is nothing quiet about him. His teammates say he is outspoken, hilarious and beloved. Wish I could remember who said it, but I recall a player interview where they asked about clubhouse leaders and the interviewee said Escobar is the first guy to jump in and pick up his teammates (or something to that effect.) I think he flies under the radar a bit media-wise because he hasn't been a constant starter until now and the fact that English isn't his first language. I was so disappointed originally when he was 50% of the return for Liriano. Today, I LOVE the guy!
  5. PopRiveter
    "When Nolasco is written about, "quality peripherals" invariably are mentioned. Fact is, Nolasco is not a "useful starter". He never seems to get the results the peripherals suggest he is capable of" Well stated. I'll go a step further. FIP, specifically, can be pretty misleading when used independently. Nolasco gets hit pretty well (opponents' .276/.320/.437) but FIP only accounts for home runs and walks, so all the singles, doubles, triples, successful bunts, sac flies, etc. are disregarded. He's a prime example of the limitation of this particular stat. Measured by FIP, he's a 3.80 pitcher, but in real baseball, he's a 4.50 pitcher. For some pitching styles, the peripherals do a nice job of predicting success/failure, but for Nolasco's entire career he's underperformed his peripherals. These measures clearly aren't a reliable guide for him.
  6. PopRiveter
    True, but all that means is he has say in the matter. I expect he'd waive his no-trade as long as he's going to a contender. There seems to be a lot of mutual respect between him and Terry. I expect Torii will go wherever he wants to and the Twins would be glad to accept whatever return he brings and root for him until the end of the year. It wouldn't even mean he won't be back here next year.
  7. PopRiveter
    I disagree on your Hunter conclusion. I think he is the most likely to be traded. He came to MN to play his age 40 year on a team that was not expected to contend. He had to come here with the anticipation he'd be traded to a contender. Had to. They were in the race at the non-waiver deadline, so he would not be traded. That sure looks different now. If they are sellers, he is the #1 most likely asset to go. He has value, experience- and isn't a long-term piece. 2nd, I sure hope they don't trade Arcia. His and Sano's are the highest upside bats to come through here since Morneau (Ortiz?...Killebrew?) He could be a .300 hitter with 40 hr when he puts it together. Trading him at his nadir would be foolish.
  8. PopRiveter

    I Am a Fan

    PopRiveter commented on DRizzo's blog entry in DRizzo's Blog

    Fantastic post! I have been stuck on a terminally boring and endless conference call today. As it drags on and on, and doesn't involve me or my responsibilities, I habitually began reading TD articles. Whoa. Your post is a welcomed return to perspective. Any Twins decisions that I do not agree with will not ruin my day, week or year. I worry about some of our friends in here. Some seem to put the "postal worker meltdown" in "FAN."
  9. PopRiveter
    Not exactly surprised to find peak levels of whine and negativity on this board today, but did anyone seriously think TR should take a big swing at the deadline??!?!?! This team surge came ahead of schedule. Public pressure required the GM do something. All I cared is that he didn't do anything short-sighted. He didn't. Acquired an established reliever with possibility of more runway than just 2015 while giving up low-level, non-elite, prospects. Chih Wei Hu throws a 90 MPH fastball. Remember him fondly the next time you are writing a diatribe about the Twins overvaluing soft-tossing, control pitchers.
  10. PopRiveter
    Sorry for the thread hijack. I just couldn't ignore this again.
  11. PopRiveter
    "That's my problem. The rotation with Pelfrey and Milone is not going to improve. You know what will make it improve? Trevor May." -Brock Every day I hear (or see) this idea repeated in various forms. "Trevor May was the best starter in the rotation for..." "His peripherals show that he's outperformed Pelfrey..." "His ERA is artificially inflated." This opinion is stated as fact over and over (esp on the radio) and it just rubs me raw because it contradicts all the statistical evidence. I have dug deep into the numbers comparing May and Pelfrey. Pelfrey has been more successful at limiting runs, logging quality starts and has consistently gone deeper into games. He has outperformed May by an admittedly slight margin in almost every category. May strikes out more batters, gives up more xbh and home runs. Pelfrey doesn't get the strike outs, but has induced 22 dps to May's 4. Also, Pelfrey is pitching almost identical to his career averages in both primary and peripheral stats. In short, there is more reason to believe he'll continue to perform at this level through 2015 than there s to believe May will. That means something if the Twins hope to have reliable starters to take the mound in a playoff series. If you want to punt on this year, he should be traded and you should accept the temporary downgrade in the rotation that should be expected by reinserting May so he can resume his development. That is a valid course to choose. It is not however, valid to assert that May has performed better than Pelfrey unless you simply wish to eliminate results and success from the equation.
  12. PopRiveter
    I'm fine with acquiring no one as long as it means not losing Arcia. Kepler is still such a wild card. Always playing against older competition. "Almost untouchable" seems like a premature classification for a guy who's having his first real success. Hopefully, they'll wait to find out what he's going to be or get something for him before learning he isn't going to be anything. Trading Kepler would be a blind bet. I don't think anyone knows what he really is yet.
  13. PopRiveter
    I am in love with this thread. Somehow, I expected everyone would understand the spirit and intention on the thread. How naive of me. Glad Lukeduke1980 gets it. This quote was spot on! Well played, friend!
  14. PopRiveter
    I thought he was a good fit this year because he'd be a fun storyline early and a trade chip for a struggling team now. The team success has changed this picture a ton. I don't see how he would be a fit next year. If they trade Arcia (which I think would be a huge mistake), then I could see room for him. I think it would be the wrong choice, but I could imagine it happening. All that said, I have no trouble with the team paying on a "goodwill" contract to a player who has given so much over so many years, but I don't want to see mlb-ready, up-and-comers blocked. Read "Arcia."
  15. PopRiveter
    I'm convinced. The whole "regression" angle doesn't convince me that they are in for a fall, because a team is dynamic and ever-changing. Sano's recent contribution has made such an impact on the overall picture. The lineup looks so much stronger this week than 2 weeks ago, and it is basically just a one-man change. I can easily imagine the same thing happening for the bullpen. Maybe Graham just makes the next step. Surprising heroes emerge in bullpens. Maybe Thielbar, Pressly or Achter have a standout second half. Maybe a higher-upside minor league starter like Berrios, Meyer, Baxendale gets a run in the BP to close out the year and takes it by the throat. Of course what looks like a solid, deep rotation could take an abrupt downturn. Imagine Gibson blows his elbow, and Nolasco heals. All things said, if a team competes this deep into the season, they are legit. Even if they wilt from here on, they deserve to be taken seriously at this point.
  16. PopRiveter
    I was really hoping they wouldn't make the Nolasco DL start retroactive so we were guaranteed 15 days from now until this was problem again, but alas, "Retroactive to Monday." It doesn't hurt anything, but I would rather they guarantee Milone a little longer runway. This only promises a couple starts.
  17. PopRiveter
    Re: Pressly. He had a 3.87 era as a rookie. I certainly don't classify his 2013 as poor. Re: Guerra. He had a blood clot, not Tommy John. Re: Oliveros. Can you believe he made his mlb debut back in 2009?He's got 10 mlb innings over parts of 5 seasons. He's been hanging just below the big leagues for a long time. That has to be hard on a guy. I hope he can get more than 2 or 3 innings next time. Re: O'Rourke. I've not previously heard much about him (maybe because he's a little old for his level?) Thanks for putting him in the discussion. That's some serious dominance of lefties.
  18. PopRiveter
    I was trying to figure out why you photoshopped Paul O'Neill in between them for the whole time I was reading the article. Then, I scrolled up, realized it was a baseball card, felt embarassed, and announced my dumbness on the internet. That said, I enjoyed how you laid out these similarities. These 2 players always felt connected to me. Both favorites of mine.
  19. PopRiveter
    His margin of error is narrow. He's been stable and reliable, but not especially effective throughout his career. So, yeah, we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco because he's Ricky Nolasco and he pitches like Ricky Nolasco. The numbers are bearing that out. He's pitching like he pitches and the results will vary from kinda bad to kinda good.
  20. PopRiveter
    I don't know how many teams could field a quality outfield while all 3 starters, + a first baseman and a reinforcement outfielder are all out at once. Mastro and Presley were not going to make an impactful difference and there are always Sam Fulds showing up on the wire (see Mastroianni, Presley, Thomas, Wilson.) IMO, the true issue isn't depth as much as having a quality starting centerfielder. Hicks' leash is waaaaaaaaay too long. The corners will be fine in short order, but this rash of injuries might mean the loss of Parmelee from the org, and it definitely means we watch some funny routes.
  21. PopRiveter
    I believe they brought in some veterans who they could trust to set a good example, take some pressure off the kids, and lead the clubhouse. A lot was made about this team lacking fire. The veterans set the tone. They picked up a handful of guys they trust (makeupwise) knowing that a few would stick and a few would not. It is in the young players best interests to graduate the minors into a functional mlb clubhouse with some veteran leadership. If you drop a replacement player to take a shot at one of these guys, that's no big loss. They can pick up another Raley or Mastro 20 times each season.
  22. PopRiveter
    I don't care what anyone says. This team's CF problem is MUCH worse than its SS problem. Fuld is a downgrade from Mastroianni and either has a fair shot to outproduce Hicks this year. Please rise quickly, Byron.
  23. PopRiveter
    He's had his power stroke working for a while now. He's on the NL leader board top ten in avg, slg, rbi, doubles and tied for 14th HR (1 shy of the top ten.) I thought he was ready last season to have this season. Wish that were true. http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_25608749/rockies-justin-morneau-named-nl-player-week
  24. PopRiveter
    Right now, I'd wanna bat Cola and Kubel 3, 4 and 4, 3 at least until Arcia and Willingham come back. Keep Hicks low in the order so he can fly below the radar.
  25. PopRiveter
    Shane's probably just described the best plan. When he came onboard with the club, I was opposed to the idea of a no-hit SS. Then I watched him play. Honestly, his D is such an asset that his bat don't bother me none at all. The step from a .220/9 HR hitter with an excellent glove to a .260/12 HR hitter with a weak glove doesn't appeal to me and fans who are calling for his replacement would eventually be calling for Nunez's head, Escobar's head, Santana's head, Beresford's head, etc. I think it was wrong to work off the rust with the big club, but we can reasonably expect that he'll produce at 3x the rate he is so far (which would put him in line with historic averages) and that is not unforgivable at short. Jason Bartlett got MVP votes in 2008 when he posted a .690 OPS at short! PeeFlow's history is that of a low-mid .600's OPS. That is fine when paired with his glove.
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