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howeda7

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Everything posted by howeda7

  1. howeda7
    7/$73 million is a joke. $15 m/AAV year before incentives is an absolute minimum. Also, there's little reason for either side to go 7 years. 5/$100m with $5m/year in incentives gets it done.
  2. howeda7
    We should have two rotation spots open soon (Pineda and Happ.) Sounds like one of them is going to Tokyo though.
  3. howeda7
    I'm not in favor of trading anyone who can help in 2022, with the exception of Sano, Donaldson, who's $ can be spent elsewhere, and possibly Duffy. I agree this team is already drawing flies and has TV distribution issues. Trading Berrios/Buxton and waving the white flag on 2022 (which might occur after a lock-out) and you may lose a huge chunk of fans you never get back. They need to move the obvious pieces. Cruz, Pineda, Simmons and Robles and reload for next year.
  4. howeda7
    Brutal loss. Maeda totally wet the bed. Unacceptable performance from a veteran.
  5. howeda7
    I disagree that it's a "bad" middle infield. I feel like we adopted this narrative retroactively to justify signing Simmons. And he's been good but not great in the field and is awful at the plate. Polanco is adequate at SS. Yes he made a bad error in the play-offs. The FA market for starters this year is pretty deep. I doubt all of the top ones are getting $30M. Especially with some teams in a financial squeeze and the uncertain labor situation. As for what happens when we get to the play-offs, who knows. Getting back there is step 1. The White Sox progression may not be linear. Teams sometimes take a step back. I am taking into consideration increases for Buxton/Berrios, and others. But after 2022, Sano comes off the books. After 23 Donaldson does. Eventually, someone like Kepler/Polanco may be trade candidates etc. The 2023 payroll could be pushed near/above $150 million. That is high but not really that unreasonable. After Donaldson comes off the books it would be back in the $135-140 range.
  6. howeda7
    There are some here saying we should only offer him a 3 -year massively incentive laden deal. You seem to think he can get 10/$300 from the Yankees. I think reality is in the middle but closer to the lower end. He's injury prone, his best asset is his speed and he's approaching 30. I don't think anyone's giving him a "best player in the game" level contract or one that goes past his age 34 season in December 2022. If that's what he's holding out for, I guess we let him play out the string and trade him next July if we're not in the play-off race. But I don't know that a legit 5 year offer has been made by the Twins. It sounds more like 3 year offers with multiple team options is what they've offered so far. If so, they need to step up and put their best offer out there.
  7. howeda7
    I am hoping/assuming they can find someone to take Sano off their hands either now or in the off-season. Hence, $50 million to spend. They can allot $20-25 million to a top-end starter. Another $10-12 to bringing back Pineda or getting someone similar. That leaves $15-20 million for the bullpen and a DH. I don't see a need to break the bank for a DH. Perhaps bringing back someone like Eddie R for $8 million or so and rotating Kepler/Larnach/Garver etc. through the DH spot. I am fine with Polanco at SS and Arreaz and 2B. The biggest worry would be the bullpen, IMO.
  8. howeda7
    Because most players choose to sign long-term deals instead of going year-to-year. Bauer is the exception. Currently, Buxton's market value is somewhere in the 5/100 ballpark. Sure, he could play for $10 million in arbitration next year instead of say $16 million on an extension. And then maybe get $25 million on a one year deal for 2023. He'd be no better off in total for the two years. And is he going to continue getting $25-$30 million on 2024, 2025, 2026? Not if he doesn't stay healthy. Not if he loses a step or two and becomes a corner OF'er. Twins extension: Year-to-Year: 2022: $16 2022: $10 arbitration 2023: $18 2023: $25 ---------------Turns 30--------------------- 2024: $20 2024: $25 2025: $22 2025: $20 2026: $24 2025: $20 The same total value. He takes on all the risk going year to year. Could he get more? Maybe. Could he get far less? Quite possibly. Another option is giving him an opt-out after say the 3rd year. If he's stayed healthy and thinks he can do better, he can opt out.
  9. howeda7
    How often do we sign big external FA's? They often don't want to come here. Donaldson was a notable exception. It's easier/wiser to spend $ locking up your own top players than trying to lure them here. I'd rather over-pay Berrios than over-pay whoever the 2023 FA version of Dallas Kuchel is.
  10. howeda7
    8 months of health, even if it happens isn't going to erase his injury history from anyone's memory. And realistically, he's not going to sustain the offensive #'s he has to this point over a full season. No one could. Plus, his biggest asset is still his speed. That has already peaked and will inevitably decline going forward. His emerging power #'s offset that somewhat, but not completely. So no, I don't think any team, not even the Yankees or Dodgers, will offer him more than 5 years max. His incentive to sign now is that he could very well get hurt again next year and miss significant time again. If that happens, even a 5 year deal probably won't be in the offering. 5/$100 with another $5 million/year in incentives for plate appearances is very fair. Perhaps a 6th year option for say $26 million with a $5 million buyout if a little more is needed. If he stays healthy, it ends up a 6-year $156 million contract if he hits all the incentives. If he doesn't stay healthy, it's still 5/$105 in guaranteed money. That's hardly a huge discount.
  11. howeda7
    Because even if he comes back in August and stay healthy for a full season, he's not getting and 8 or 10 year contract. Stop it. 5/100 is likely fair or slightly above what he would get in FA. Especially if it's bumped to $125 with incentives.
  12. howeda7
    I can't see him signing for less than 4 or 5 years. And trading won't bring the great haul everyone hopes for. After 2023 they have no one to spend big $ on.
  13. howeda7
    I'd take Larnach too, but I don't see that as a binary choice. As long as you're not over-paying him, I don't see how he leads to "mediocrity or failure". They tried to trade him. There was no interest.
  14. howeda7
    I don't think that moving on from Rosario was an indefensible move. But some players are worth more than their stats, and he might have been one of them. Since he's having a down year, I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back on a cheap 1-2 year deal as a roving 4th OF'er and using Larnach/Kepler in the DH spot.
  15. howeda7
    Both in terms of payroll and indirectly on the field, Rosario was essentially replaced by Simmons, who has been mostly a bust. I think it's fair to say they'd have been better off with Rosario in LF and Arreaz/Polanco up the middle.
  16. howeda7
    According to Doogie, what they've offered up to now had "multiple team options". I'm guessing they were trying to hedge with a 3 year extension and multiple one year options or something like that. It's not shocking Buxton's team turned that down cold. They can afford to give both Berrios and Buxton ~5/$100. The 2023 payroll might get a bit over-budget if Donaldson is still around, but 2024 and beyond would not be an issue.
  17. howeda7
    You know what you're buying at this point. 5/$100 is a fair starting point with incentives for reaching 350, 400, 450 etc. plate appearances. They can't trade him now. He won't even be back before the deadline.
  18. howeda7
    Both. We're the Cardinals not the Rays. 5/$110 for Berrios. 5/$100 for Buxton with some incentives for plate appearances.
  19. howeda7
    They have about $50 million to spend to address this. And it's really 1-2 starters and 2 relievers that are needed in FA.
  20. howeda7
    IMO there's no reason they can't compete for a play-off spot in 2022. Especially since I expect the play-offs to be expanded (which I'm against.)
  21. howeda7
    I agree extend Rogers. Trade Robles. Trade Duffy if the return is decent.
  22. howeda7
    The trade was defensible. Waiving Anderson to keep Shoemaker on the roster is not.
  23. howeda7
    If they can get someone to take Sano {or Donaldson) off their hands, they can afford to go after a top tier starter and bump Buxton/Berrios as part of their extensions.
  24. howeda7
    That was the 1997 Marlins. The Padres basically did the same thing in 1998 but got swept by the Yankees in the World Series.
  25. howeda7
    I don't fully agree. It means you to have to be willing to slightly overpay, as you won't get chosen too often if they have equal offers. And subsequently you can't afford to be wrong very often. Take 19-20 off-season. We wanted Wheeler but wouldn't top the Phillies offer. We wanted MadBaum but he wouldn't come here (you're right in this case). We wanted Kuchel but let the White Sox outbid us. We end up spending it on Donaldson instead. But he certainly had other options. In hindsight, we certainly wouldh have been better off over-paying for Wheeler for Kuechel than giving Donaldson $93 million.
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