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Ted Schwerzler

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  1. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from luckylager for a blog entry, The Oswaldo Arcia Era Ends For Twins   
    Following their 46th loss of the season, Paul Molitor informed reported that the Minnesota Twins would be welcoming Danny Santana back after a rehab assignment. That move was also met with the announcement that Minnesota would designate Oswaldo Arcia for assignment, his time with the Twins has come to an end. It might be a mercy rule for both sides however, as both parties deserved better.
     
    For the Twins, Arcia was signed as an amateur free agent back in 2007. He landed on prospect lists prior to the 2013 season, and saw his highest ranking at 41st on Baseball America's list. A hulking slugger, he was never expected to play the field well, but the belief was that his back would make up for his defensive deficiencies. In part that happened for the Twins, but not significantly enough for a guy who has been worth -31 DRS across nearly 2,000 major league innings.
     
    Over the course of his Twins career, Arcia has been worth a combined -0.5 fWAR. He hit 40 homers and ripped 37 doubles. His career .240/.303/.429 slash line was reflective of a guy that faded from 34 homers across his first two seasons. Summarizing his time with the Twins, Minnesota would be hard pressed to put a word other than underwhelming on it.
     
    For Arcia, the story is similar, his time having to interact with the Twins has to feel underwhelming as well. After putting up 14 and 20 home runs in his first two seasons respectively, the Twins began their bungling of Arcia's development a season ago. After just 19 games, and 58 at bats, Minnesota determined that it had seen enough. Despite a career his .276 average, Arcia's .718 OPS was a career low. He had hit just two homers, and those longballs represented his lone extra base hits. From a power threat, Minnesota expected more.
     
    Upon being relegated to Triple-A, the notion was that Arcia had to prove it or risk spending the rest of the year in Rochester. He went on a torrid home run stretch for a brief period, but unfortunately his final slash line rested at .199/.257/.372 across 79 Triple-A contests. He hit just 12 homers on the season, and was never a realistic option for the Twins during a postseason push.
     
    To start 2016, Arcia found himself on the 25 man, in part because Minnesota wasn't yet at a point ready to cut ties. The notion that he was in DFA purgatory played out through the season's first third. In 66 games, he was given just 27 starts, and found action in a whopping 32. His 103 at bats produced a lackluster .214/.289/.369 slash line and his defense remained poor. The results were underwhelming, but so were the opportunities.
     
    At this point, both sides deserve something better than what they have given each other. Arcia has been one of the most under-developed and poorly used Twins in the past two seasons. When given opportunities however few and far between though, he's done little to mark that reality more of a focus. Right now, the best thing is for a separation of the two.
     
    That scenario should be expected to play out. Still just 25 years old, Arcia is the kind of guy that plenty of big league teams will line up to take a flier on. In fact, a fit could come within the Twins division. With the Detroit Tigers recently losing J.D. Martinez, a poor fielder and good slugger in his own right, Arcia fits the profile on a much lesser scale. In fact, the Tigers might be able to see a former prospect of their own in the failed Twin.
     
    Back in 2013, Avisail Garcia found himself on Baseball America's top 100 list, at number 74, behind Arcia. Once nicknamed "Minny Miggy," Garcia has never really been more than just a guy. Now playing with the White Sox, his career .695 OPS lags behind the .732 of Arcia's. Garcia has never matched Oswaldo's home run numbers, and Detroit was willing to give their former failed prospect 53 games worth of work from 2012-13. The Tigers could do a lot worse than a quick flier on someone they have seen plenty of over the past four years.
     
    Regardless of where Oswaldo Arcia winds up, he shouldn't be expected to be David Ortiz 2.0 for the Twins. Although he won't spurn them to that level, Minnesota shouldn't find themselves off the hook either. They operated with a poor plan in regards to the Venezuelan, and what could have been will likely remain a question for a while.
     
    If there's one good thing that comes out of this for the Twins, it's that the commitment to the kids seems to have taken a hold. Both Max Kepler and Byron Buxton remain on the big league roster. Rather than being sent back to Triple-A, the organization realizes it's time for them to sink or swim, and allowing them to figure it out against the highest level of competition is a must.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  2. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, 2016 Midseason Top 15 Prospects Update   
    Here at Off The Baggy, covering the Minnesota Twins means checking in on everything from the big league club on down to the farm. With the major league team in the midst of an unfortunate season, it's hard to not get caught up already looking ahead to 2017. With the Twins graduating a handful of their top prospects, looking at who's next is plenty exciting.
     
    Despite big names like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano no longer being considered prospects, the Twins have some serious firepower left on the farm. Shifting more towards pitchers at this point, the organization should have plenty of players to rely upon in the coming seasons. Before taking a look at where the rankings fall currently, you can find the 2016 Top 15 Prospects HERE, and the midseason 2015 Top 15 Prospects HERE.
     
    With all of that out of the way, let's get into it. Your top 15 Minnesota Twins Prospects at the halfway point of 2016:
     
    15. Jake Reed RP
     
    Unfortunately, Reed struggled out of the gate. In his first 27.1 IP, he owned a 5.27 ERA. While his 29 strikeouts were a welcomed statistic, command was once again an issue. He gave up 16 earned runs while walking 12 batter. However, he's seemingly turned a corner of late. Over his last nine innings, he owns a 1.00 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters to bat just .040/.194/.040 off of him. If he can continue to limit walks, he still should have a chance to reach Rochester by season's end.
     
    14. Lewis Thorpe SP
     
    It's hard to move Thorpe much as he's yet to pitch in 2016. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery and has had a couple of hiccups during the process. I believe at one point he came down with mono, and that obviously slowed the process. He's still got youth on his side, and should he make a return in 2016, his ceiling remains as high as ever.
     
    13. Felix Jorge SP
     
    The first new name in the midseason top 15, Jorge has absolutely earned his spot. At 22 years old, he's making his debut at High-A Fort Myers this season. He's made 10 starts thus far and owns a 1.64 ERA. His strikeout numbers sit at 7.5 K/9, and have remained virtually consistent since rookie ball. He's not going to be a frontline starter, but if Jorge can continue to replicate similar results, he'll be a solid rotation contributor in the middle to back end as he rises through the Twins system.
     
    12. Nick Burdi RP
     
    Burdi falls out of the top 10 after a less than ideal begin to 2016. He injured himself during spring training and then has dealt with arm injuries for most of the regular season. He's made just three appearances, and remains on the Double-A disabled list. His stuff is absolutely electric when on the mound, but he's really struggled to get there this season. After some control issues a season ago, he really needed to use this season as a springboard and that just hasn't happened.
     
    11. Daniel Palka OF
     
    Taking over the spot previously occupied by Adam Brett Walker, Palka has been more than a nice return to the Twins for Chris Herrmann. He currently leads the Southern League in home runs, and his power is plenty legit. He has strikeout tendencies very similar to Walker, but his on-base numbers tell a different tale, and his ratios are a bit better than the free swinger at Triple-A. I compared both Palka and Walker here, and if I'm taking a flier on one to hit, it's Palka.
     
    10. Fernando Romero SP
     
    Romero makes the biggest jump thus far on the prospect list. After being outside of my top 15 to start the season, he's been absolutely unhittable since returning to Cedar Rapids following Tommy John surgery. Romero didn't pitch in 2014, but it doesn't appear that he's missed a beat at all. Four starts in, he owns a 1.17 ERA along with an 8.2 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9. Romero put up solid numbers as a 19 year old at Cedar Rapids in 2014, so him dominating the level isn't completely unexpected. Regardless, should he continue to progress like this from Tommy John, he's going to force himself into the Twins plans.
     
    9. Alex Kirilloff RF/1B
     
    The 15th overall draft pick by the Minnesota Twins in the 2016 Major League draft, Kirilloff may immediately take over the title of top power prospect. He's probably going to skip the Gulf Coast League and head right to Elizabethton. A high schooler, he'll have a significant learning curve at the pro level. He's already got tremendous pop in his bat and it should translate to wood just fine. He's likely destined for a corner spot at the big league level, but that hit tool is going to carry him on its own for a while.
     
    8. Kohl Stewart SP
     
    Moving up one spot, Stewart has now made the jump to Double-A Chattanooga. Of the Twins pitching prospects, he's been the one considered to be a frontline starter most often. His strikeout numbers improved this season as he started out at Fort Myers. He earned a promotion though after a few rocky starts and then turned in a clunker in his Double-A debut. He settled in during start number two and should spend the rest of the season with Chattanooga. I want to believe in Stewart, but the strikeouts need to come, and the level of dominance needs to rise if he's going to fulfill that frontline potential for Minnesota.
     
    7. J.T. Chargois RP
     
    Chargois made his MLB debut in June and it went hardly as planned. However, he should be back up with the big club sooner rather than later, and the expectation should be that he's capable of helping the Twins. At Triple-A Rochester in 2016, Chargois has struck out everyone to the tune of a 14.6 K/9. He's controlled walks and he's worked out of the closer role. With Glen Perkins looking like a serious shutdown candidate for the year, I'd be far from shocked to see the Twins using Chargois to save games in September.
     
    6. Jorge Polanco 2B
     
    The only reason Polanco is this low on the list is because of the talent ahead of him. He's gone from being a guy that plenty of organizations have, to one that should be playing every day in the big leagues. Polanco has been jerked around by the Twins but is slashing .315/.380/.500 at Triple-A Rochester. He's capable with the bat at the big league level right now, and needing to play second base, a fit with the Twins is a tough ask. If Minnesota moves Eduardo Nunez (they should), it needs to be Polanco that picks up the extra playing time.
     
    5. Stephen Gonsalves SP
     
    Right now, Gonsalves has no business being at High-A Fortt Myers. He's made 11 starts this seasons totaling a 2.33 ERA and has complimented that with a 9.0 K/9. He dominated the level a season ago and is ready for a challenge at Double-A. He was selected to represent the Miracle at the Florida State League All Star Game (that the Miracle are hosting), so he's not going anywhere before then. From what I've been told by a source, his promotion should come almost immediately after the All Star game. That would put him on pace to be an option for Triple-A (or the Twins) in late 2017.
     
    4. Nick Gordon SS
     
    Standing pat at number four, Gordon has had a nice 2016. It could look a lot better however had his last few weeks not been so rough. From April 7 through May 19, Gordon owned a .331/.370/.472 slash line for the Miracle. Since however, he's hit just .189/.268/.243 with 3 extra base hits, 18 strikesouts, and just five walks. His glove was always expected to be ahead of his bat, but he's totaled 13 errors in 46 games already after putting up 18 in 118 games at Cedar Rapids a year ago. I'm not worried about Gordon, but he's probably not as ready for Double-A as he once appeared early in the season.
     
    3. Tyler Jay SP
     
    If there's a reason Jay doesn't move up, it's solely because of the talent ahead of him. Give me a thre headed monster from the top three Twins prospects and I'm ok. After working solely as a reliever in college, Jay has looked the part of a dominant starter in 2016. At High-A Fort Myers, he owns a 2.18 ERA and a 9.2 K/9. Since May 4, he's made 6 starts and owns a 0.70 ERA, .205/.266/.227 slash line against, and a 9.9 K/9. He too should see a promotion to Double-A in short order, and I'd still bet on Jay making it to the big leagues ahead of both Stewart and Gonsalves.
     
    2. Max Kepler OF
     
    Debuting in 2015, Kepler wasn't going to become a regular until this season at the earliest. With Miguel Sano on the disabled list, he's been afforded that opportunity. It's fair to expect him to take his lumps, and he definitely has. Now with a handful of starts under his belt, Kepler owns a paltry .189/.271/.321 line at the big league level. His on-base skills will always help him though, and he's taking solid at bats. He'll continue to get his feet wet and be just fine. I'd be pretty disappointed if the Twins sent him back to Triple-A at any point during this lost season.
     
    1. Jose Berrios SP
     
    Easily the most anticipated big league debut after Sano and Buxton, Berrios got his shot early with the Twins. In four big league starts, he's compiled a 10.20 ERA backed by an ugly 7.2 BB/9. The strikeouts have been there, to the tune of a 12.0 K/9, but he's gotten himself in danger far too often. The problem is that has continued since his demotion back to Triple-A. He owns a 4.99 ERA since returning to Rochester, and has nibbled at the strike zone far more than you'd like. He's been more susceptible to the home run this season and the command issues haven't helped that. The ceiling is still incredibly high, but his two biggest detractors have reared their ugly head.
     
    There you have it, the Off The Baggy Top 15 prospects at the midway point of the 2016 season. The next update will come at some point over the offseason. With the Twins looking to right the ship at the highest level, they'll again need to hope that a handful of their developed talent pays off for them.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  3. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Ncgo4 for a blog entry, Twins A Byproduct Of Mismanagement, Nothing Else   
    With a very much needed, but not incredibly well deserved off day, the Minnesota Twins are guaranteed not to sink further into the loss column today. Fresh off another series loss, this one ending with a 16-4 drubbing by the Houston Astros, things have completely fallen apart for Paul Molitor's squad. The problem isn't what's on his roster though, but rather what has taken place since Opening Day.
     
    Coming into the season, the Minnesota Twins had heightened expectations after an out-of-nowhere season a year ago. Peaking ahead of schedule, Molitor took the club to the brink in his first year as manager. Just narrowly missing the playoffs, many tabbed this club as poised for more.
     
    Deficiencies were present in the bullpen a season ago, and defense was something that could also be looked upon. Despite no clear ace in the starting rotation, pitching was expected to be a relative strength with young arms on the way. Terry Ryan and the Twins did what they thought best positioned them, without blocking too many internal options, over the offseason.
     
    Fernando Abad was a key offseason non-roster guy, and results aside (as great as he's been) it's was a move likely to work. Minnesota believed he was tipping his pitches, and just a year removed from getting everyone out, that seemed like a relative easy fix. Buying Ho Park was brought in to bolster the offense. Sure, he sent Miguel Sano to right field, but there's no denying the Twins run support has been for the better for it.
     
    In summary, the roster construction of this team coming into the 2016 season was hardly problematic.
     
    That leads us to where we find ourselves now. Local writer, Brandon Warne noted on Twitter that he'd be penning a piece in defense of the Twins roster shortly. Where that veers from the issue is that the roster in and of itself is not actually all that problematic.
     
    The results have been nowhere near where this club should be (8-20 is horrible), however, it's been the in season adjustments that have highlighted a much larger issue. There's been an incredibly inept usage of the organizational pieces by both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. Promotions and demotions have been head scratching to say the least, and in game usage has questioned Molitor's savvy as a manager in general.
     
    Our latest example for the Twins compounding on their own mistakes came in that drubbing to the Astros. Following a start in which the deck was nearly stacked against him, Alex Meyer was sent back to Triple-A, rather than the Twins bullpen, in favor of J.R. Graham. Graham was promoted having totaled an ERA north of 10.00 on the farm this season. Then, instead of being just a hidden body in the bullpen, he was used in the first game he was with the team. Of course, the Astros teed off on him, and the Twins wind up looking even sillier for it.
     
    As we've now played over a month of the season, Molitor and Ryan have given us plenty of laughable instances to point at. The leash Eddie Rosario has been given is crazy, David Murphy was awarded a 40 man spot despite his intentions to avoid the dumpster fire through retiring. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have both been promoted and gone unused, and Molitor continues to be stoic throughout the whole process.
     
    With how things have been handled to this point, it appears the Twins fundamental problem is that both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have absolutely zero clue. They have no clue what the identity of this team is, and that's a problem. You can only keep saying that such a small portion of the season has been played for so long. Right now, the Twins have virtually no chance of making the playoffs, yet every roster move is a knee jerk reaction that appears to be made thinking it's the final key to picking up that pivotal win.
     
    There's no sense packing it in, but there's a right and wrong way to handle a losing season in big league baseball. For the Twins, making sure they understand what they have in their youth, and unlocking them as contributors for the season that lies ahead, is absolutely important. That doesn't appear to be the plan, process or goal however, and that underlines the much larger issue that this organization is facing.
     
    How to change the tide is something that's much more of an uphill battle, but nothing Molitor or Ryan have displayed in 2016 suggest they appear capable of being a part of the solution.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  4. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Loosey for a blog entry, Twins A Byproduct Of Mismanagement, Nothing Else   
    With a very much needed, but not incredibly well deserved off day, the Minnesota Twins are guaranteed not to sink further into the loss column today. Fresh off another series loss, this one ending with a 16-4 drubbing by the Houston Astros, things have completely fallen apart for Paul Molitor's squad. The problem isn't what's on his roster though, but rather what has taken place since Opening Day.
     
    Coming into the season, the Minnesota Twins had heightened expectations after an out-of-nowhere season a year ago. Peaking ahead of schedule, Molitor took the club to the brink in his first year as manager. Just narrowly missing the playoffs, many tabbed this club as poised for more.
     
    Deficiencies were present in the bullpen a season ago, and defense was something that could also be looked upon. Despite no clear ace in the starting rotation, pitching was expected to be a relative strength with young arms on the way. Terry Ryan and the Twins did what they thought best positioned them, without blocking too many internal options, over the offseason.
     
    Fernando Abad was a key offseason non-roster guy, and results aside (as great as he's been) it's was a move likely to work. Minnesota believed he was tipping his pitches, and just a year removed from getting everyone out, that seemed like a relative easy fix. Buying Ho Park was brought in to bolster the offense. Sure, he sent Miguel Sano to right field, but there's no denying the Twins run support has been for the better for it.
     
    In summary, the roster construction of this team coming into the 2016 season was hardly problematic.
     
    That leads us to where we find ourselves now. Local writer, Brandon Warne noted on Twitter that he'd be penning a piece in defense of the Twins roster shortly. Where that veers from the issue is that the roster in and of itself is not actually all that problematic.
     
    The results have been nowhere near where this club should be (8-20 is horrible), however, it's been the in season adjustments that have highlighted a much larger issue. There's been an incredibly inept usage of the organizational pieces by both Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan. Promotions and demotions have been head scratching to say the least, and in game usage has questioned Molitor's savvy as a manager in general.
     
    Our latest example for the Twins compounding on their own mistakes came in that drubbing to the Astros. Following a start in which the deck was nearly stacked against him, Alex Meyer was sent back to Triple-A, rather than the Twins bullpen, in favor of J.R. Graham. Graham was promoted having totaled an ERA north of 10.00 on the farm this season. Then, instead of being just a hidden body in the bullpen, he was used in the first game he was with the team. Of course, the Astros teed off on him, and the Twins wind up looking even sillier for it.
     
    As we've now played over a month of the season, Molitor and Ryan have given us plenty of laughable instances to point at. The leash Eddie Rosario has been given is crazy, David Murphy was awarded a 40 man spot despite his intentions to avoid the dumpster fire through retiring. Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler have both been promoted and gone unused, and Molitor continues to be stoic throughout the whole process.
     
    With how things have been handled to this point, it appears the Twins fundamental problem is that both Terry Ryan and Paul Molitor have absolutely zero clue. They have no clue what the identity of this team is, and that's a problem. You can only keep saying that such a small portion of the season has been played for so long. Right now, the Twins have virtually no chance of making the playoffs, yet every roster move is a knee jerk reaction that appears to be made thinking it's the final key to picking up that pivotal win.
     
    There's no sense packing it in, but there's a right and wrong way to handle a losing season in big league baseball. For the Twins, making sure they understand what they have in their youth, and unlocking them as contributors for the season that lies ahead, is absolutely important. That doesn't appear to be the plan, process or goal however, and that underlines the much larger issue that this organization is facing.
     
    How to change the tide is something that's much more of an uphill battle, but nothing Molitor or Ryan have displayed in 2016 suggest they appear capable of being a part of the solution.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  5. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from mikelink45 for a blog entry, Twins Making A Habit Of Bad Roster Moves   
    Following his first and only start in a Major League Baseball uniform, the Twins couldn't even wait through the night to option prospect Alex Meyer back to Triple-A Rochester. Getting a chance with Ervin Santana and Kyle Gibson on the shelf, the Twins had deemed they had seen enough after just 2.2 innings pitched from Meyer. Really though, it seems there's a much large issue at play here.
     
    This morning on Twitter I was thinking back to the guys I can remember the Twins using in an extremely poor fashion. The list is probably longer than I was able to recall, but here's what I came up with:
     
    2015 Michael Tonkin
    2015 Kennys Vargas
    2016 Max Kepler
    2016 Jorge Polanco
    2016 Alex Meyer
    Plan for these guys has been horrible #MNTwins
    The reality of the situation is that every single one of the names mentioned has been done a disservice by either Paul Molitor, Terry Ryan, or a collection of the two. I touched on odd roster moves when writing up Ryan a while back, but I think it's probably fair to look a little deeper.
     
    I won't spend much time on Tonkin or Vargas as I've talked about the poor usage they had to endure previously. Tonkin was jerked back and forth between the big leagues and Triple-A in 2015. Despite being a good piece for Minnesota this season, it's something they should have previously been aware of. You can read that piece here.
     
    Vargas is a guy that's never been someone I have regarded as in the higher level of prospects. It was nice that he made a showing at the 2014 Future's Game, but that may go down to be the highlight of his career. Regardless of my feelings that he may be a bench bat, Minnesota sent him packing at such a poor time, and it's essentially ruined him. Read more of my thoughts on that here.
     
    That brings us to the guys that Ryan and Molitor have hurt this season. The list starts with Max Kepler. He was up with the Twins for roughly 20 games in 2016 to start the year, and in that time, drew just two starts. Kepler was employed almost solely as a defensive replacement, and was given just 14 plate appearances. For a guy that's regarded pretty highly across MLB in the prospect realm, his development was being stunted, while his ability at the highest level was not at all being understood.
     
    Kepler could have been drawing regular, rotating starts among the Twins outfield. A guy that can play all three positions, he should have been in the lineup at least two times per week. Instead, he was sent back to Triple-A after having been able to show nothing. He's now hitting below the Mendoza Line at Rochester, and is trying to get things going after having the first bit of his season be rendered completely useless.
     
    Of the group, Polanco has probably been the least damaged, despite being a victim previously. He has been called up and sent back now by the Twins twice in 2016. The latest time, April 26, saw him get a single at bat (on April 29) before being sent back to Triple-A. Minnesota has promoted Polanco multiple times over the past three seasons, and yet he's been given a whopping 29 at bats. He's going to be out of options at the end of 2016, and despite being touted to have a big league ready bat, Minnesota really hasn't allowed him an opportunity to showcase it.
     
    I've contended for quite some time that Polanco's greatest asset to the Twins is in his trade value. He can't play short or third efficiently enough, and Minnesota has Brian Dozier at second for the immediate future. The way in which Polanco has been showcased isn't going to drive up his trade value, and it's becoming closer to the time that the Twins lose him for next to nothing.
     
    Now for the most recent example, and maybe the most frustrating one, Alex Meyer. Meyer was acquired for Denard Span from the Washington Nationals prior to the 2013 season. Now 26 years old, Meyer has both started and relieved in the Twins system. Having been a part of the organization for multiple years, it's somewhat sad the club hasn't decided on which is the best route for him to succeed.
     
    In being called up to the big leagues this time, Meyer was given a deck stacked against him, and then was immediately jettisoned to the farm in favor of a reliever with an ERA north of 10.00. Here's the timeline the Twins gave Meyer in 2016:
     
    Alex Meyer timeline:
    Apr 20- Recent AAA start
    Apr 25- Promoted to MLB
    Apr 29- Relief app
    May 3- MLB start
    May 3- Option to AAA#MNTwins
    Instead of scrapping the starting idea, and allowing him to see if he can stick in the pen for a team that's 8-19, Minnesota abandoned him altogether. Meyer goes back to Rochester where he'll likely start. Sure, he probably gets another crack at the big league level in 2016 in some fashion, but he's 26 and the organization still has no idea what the future holds for him.
     
    At some point, the Twins need to understand that if you're going to build from within, you're going to be employing youth. With youth comes inexperience, and therefore you'll have some bumps in the road to work through. For a team that's 8-19, there's little reason to keep acting like you need the quick fix that is going to get you to the playoffs, it's not happening.
     
    Looking to the future, this organization still has plenty of pieces to build a contended from within, and remain that way for a while. What I'm not sure they have is the right people at the top (Ryan and Molitor) to get them to that point.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  6. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, New Country, Same Old Tricks For Park   
    Welcome to May, the second month of the Major League Baseball season. The Minnesota Twins have started out in just about the least desirable way possible, but there's been a few bright spots. Joe Mauer has looked other-worldly at the plate, and the youth has begun to rise. An exciting development however has been the emergence of for Korean Baseball Organization superstar Byung Ho Park.
     
    The Twins won the rights to sign the Nexen star, and inked the 29 year-old rookie to a four-year, $12 million deal this offseason. Slated to be the club's every day designated hitter, the narrative was that his power would absolutely play. Having hit over 100 homers the past two seasons in Korea, Minnesota was hoping for even a fraction of that production at Target Field.
     
    It was fair to expect a learning curve of some sort for the newest Twins hitter. Jung Ho Kang had paved the way, and laid out an acclimation plan for his fellow countryman through his success with the Pirates a season ago. Park though, has made the transition look even smoother. Through his first six games with the Twins, Park put up a paltry .143/.250/.286 slash line while striking out 12 times and registering just two walks.
    Then, things clicked.
     
    From April 14 on (a period of 15 games), Park has slashed .294/.351/.706 for Minnesota. He's launched five homers, driving in 10 runs, and owning a 12/5 K/BB ratio. Batting in the five hole behind Miguel Sano for the bulk of that time, he's become a threat in the heart of Paul Molitor's order.
     
    What's maybe even more impressive, is how well he is adjusting to the speed of the big league game. Despite facing faster pitcher, and more adept throwers, Park has absolutely obliterated baseballs. When making contact, he has made "hard" contact 42.9% of the time. When he is hitting fly balls, 28.6% of them have left the yard. Despite a lower contact rate (69%), he's becoming more patient in his approach, chasing pitches just 26.5% of the time.
     
    Of course, Park is known for the longball. What maybe wasn't expected, is that the #ParkBang has been so incredibly impressive thus far in his career for the Twins. Having now recorded six homers, Park has hit just one that didn't travel over 400 feet (a 390ft opposite field bomb at Target Field), and his exit velocity has been equally impressive. Right now, Park is averaging 427.8 feet on his home runs, and they are leaving the bat at an average speed of 108.4 mph.
     
    It's pretty safe to assume that Park is going to make most of the projections look pretty silly. To date, he's been worth 0.7 fWAR, which puts him on pace for a 4.4 fWAR mark on the season. ZiPS tabbed him for a 2.0 fWAR with Steamer projections having him at 1.9 fWAR. Considering that he's been a defensive asset (2 DRS and 1.3 UZR), combined with his offensive prowess, he should only continue to improve upon his value.
     
    Terry Ryan and the Twins took a gamble on Park acclimating to the big leagues. It was considerable, but became pretty downsized when the Twins ended up only having to play the slugger an average of $3 million per year for his services. Right now, and really at the time as well, that contract is looking like highway robbery.
     
    As the season gets deeper into the heart of the summer, expecting Park to continue to be an integral part of the Twins is a very good bet. It's been a fun start thus far, but Park is only just beginning.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  7. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Danchat for a blog entry, Kevin Jepsen Off The Rails   
    The Twins bullpen has been a problem area in the early going this season, and despite being left largely unaddressed this offseason, I expected the minor moves to make some difference. In short, some aspects have played out as expected. Fernando Abad has been about as good as I assumed, and Casey Fien has struggled along the lines I pictured. A guy I worried about though, was Kevin Jepsen, and that's been a bigger issue.
     
    Jepsen appeared a very large regression candidate coming into the 2016 season. After being acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA for the Twins along with a 2.56 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was right near his career average, and his 2.3 BB/9 were the best result of his career. Having never seen significant time as a closer previously, he grabbed 10 saves for Minnesota as a replacement for the injured Glen Perkins.
    It all added up to a situation that just seemed too good to play out again.
     
    Now around 20 games into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the wheels have essentially fallen off for Jepsen. He owns a 4.15 ERA which probably doesn't highlight how poor he's been. His 7.3 K/9 is fine, but he's striking out just 17% of opposing hitters, the worst mark of his career. He's blown three saves, and has converted just two on the season. Now matter how you break it down, he's far from anything certain in a closer role.
     
    There's a couple of things Jepsen seems to be doing differently early on for the Twins. He's relied on his fastball nearly 75% of the time this season (nearly a 10% bump from 2015), and has all but abandoned his changeup (using it just 2.7% of the time). Combining the usage with the fact that his 94 mph velocity on his fastball is the lowest of his career, it's resulted in less than ideal output.
     
    On top of that, the effectiveness of Jepsen's pitches seems to have waned as well. In 2016, he's gotten batters to chase ptiches out of the zone just 24.1% of the time (lowest mark of his career) and well as generating swinging strikes just 8.7% of the time (lowest mark since 2013). When he throws a ball in the strike zone, opposing hitters are making contact a ridiculous 92.2% of the time (also the worst mark of his career).
     
    Right now, Jepsen's problems are a perfect storm. He's not executing his pitches, and when he is, they simply aren't very good. He's not fooling hitters, and he's generally dancing around trouble rather than attacking and avoiding it. The sum of all parts suggests the regression I expect to set in, but I really didn't see it coming this quickly.
     
    It's more than fair to attribute some of Jepsen's problems to the role he is being forced to play. Thanks to Glen Perkins binding the Twins with a week one DL stay, the former Rays reliever is pitching in a high leverage closer role he has no business occupying. In a pinch, as was the case in 2015, the situation may work for a brief period of time. As a shut down late inning reliever, you'd expect a ballclub to do better than Jepsen however.
     
    For now, it sounds like manager Paul Molitor has issued a vote of confidence to his 9th inning arm. I'd hope the leash isn't too much longer, as the Twins can't continue to cough up leads and are already scarping for every W tally they can get. At some point, it might make sense to give Trevor May a shot, or even call on one of either J.T. Chargois or Nick Burdi to assume the role. The latter two are more drastic measures, while the former is worth a try.
     
    Regardless of what eventually takes place, the path and process Kevin Jepsen is currently travelling down and executing upon can't continue to happen.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  8. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from twinssouth for a blog entry, Terry's Time Looming For Twins   
    Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
    Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
     
    Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
     
    Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
     
    We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
     
    Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
     
    Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
     
    A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
     
    Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
     
    Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
     
    Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
     
    At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  9. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, Terry's Time Looming For Twins   
    Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
    Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
     
    Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
     
    Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
     
    We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
     
    Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
     
    Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
     
    A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
     
    Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
     
    Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
     
    Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
     
    At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  10. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from d-mac for a blog entry, Terry's Time Looming For Twins   
    Recently I wrote that the Twins have an absolute slew of problems. They are doing quite a few things poorly, and everything is going negatively all at just about the same time. If we're going to try and attribute things to one place, we're probably running a fool's errand. What is true however, is that Terry Ryan's ineptitude has become more of a focus than ever.
    Having taken over for his appointed heir, Bill Smith, Ryan has guided the Twins through some substantial rebuilding. The club had four straight 90 loss seasons, and in turn, drafted some pretty promising prospects. Seemingly close to the top of the mountain once again in 2015, the club just missed the playoffs in Paul Molitor's first year. Now roughly a month into the 2016 season, the head scratching when looking at Terry Ryan's plan has reached an all time high.
     
    Let's be fair here, I have never been one to criticize Ryan. For the better part of his tenure with the Twins, I feel as though he's done a passable job. While you'd no doubt hope for something that pushes the needle a bit further, he's been a guy who is less than deserving of the distaste directed at him. He pulled off a heck of a deal to land Tommy Milone and I still believe that both the Yankees and Twins will benefit from the Aaron Hicks and John Ryan Murphy swap. He moved on from Francisco Liriano when he needed to, and Eduardo Escobar has been more than capable in return.
     
    Outside of a few bright spots over the past few seasons however, Ryan has simply seen the game pass him by.
     
    We can talk at length about whether or not Paul Molitor was a great hire for the manager role of the Twins, but it's far to early to tell how that narrative is going to play out. What we do know, is that Ryan was indebted to former manager Ron Gardenhire to a fault, and while the losing may not have been a result of his direct influence, he did little to change course either.
     
    Coming into the 2016 season, Minnesota made little waves on the open market, and it was expected to be a sign of internal options rising to the top. Now well out of the division race and floundering below the .500 mark, Alex Meyer becomes just the first promotion that we can expect to stay with the big league club (at least as long as he proves capable).
     
    Ryan no doubt had his hand in sending outfielder, and top prospect Max Kepler to the majors. In getting there, he started just two of 17 games, and saw only 14 plate appearances. Whether or not his development was stunted, Kepler saw the early part of his 2016 go to waste. Throw Jorge Polanco in the mix with Kepler, and you have another guy that has now been promoted to the big league level six different times, despite never staying for longer than a four game span. Not expected to have much of a significant impact being more rotational guys to start, the Twins learned next to nothing about either of them while they were up.
     
    A problematic pattern with promotions has followed Ryan for the better part of the past couple seasons. Both Michael Tonkin and Kennys Vargas were mishandled a season ago. One is currently seeing success at for the Twins, while the other is still trying to find the floor after having the rug pulled out from under him.
     
    Then you have what may be considered the breaking point for me. In signing veteran retread David Murphy, the Twins were essentially saying they needed a reason to shake up the roster. Rather than doing so and using a guy like Oswaldo Arcia (who has made his lack of playing time early on look silly), it was Murphy who was supposed to come in and force Minnesota into making a necessary move such as demoting top prospect Byron Buxton.
     
    Murphy went to Triple-A Rochester, and hit .194 like the aged veteran he is. Upon time for his upcoming opt out clause, the Twins first cleared room on their 40 man roster. Catcher John Hicks, who was just claimed from the Mariners this offseason, was jettisoned. Now not only had the Twins lost their third catcher (and a guy with decent future reliability), Murphy made things worse for Minnesota by declining any promotion and chose to retire.
     
    Rather than actually knowing where all parties stood, Ryan and the Twins end up looking silly with egg on their face as the roster handling appears to be above their level of competency. As the dust settled, Minnesota finds themselves now needing to add an otherwise unnecessary player to the 40 man just to fill out their big league bench.
     
    At some point, you have to be ok with asking for more from your leaders. Ryan at his best has been passable if not mediocre. If the Twins are going to take the next step, it's becoming relatively clear that Ryan is probably not the guy capable of pushing the envelope to get them there. Rather than continuing to look internally, and hiring back buddies such as Gardenhire, the Twins best friend could be the one they don't yet know. Ingenuity and innovation generally breeds advancement, but right now that's a foreign concept at Target Field.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  11. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, The Un(expected) Twins Asset   
    Just a handful of games into the season long journey, the Minnesota twins no doubt got off to a rocky start. Losing their first nine games, and being swept in three consecutive series, the hometown nine had very little to hang their hats on early. What's worth noting though is that the Twins problems have been relatively one-sided, and a past problem area has actually been a place of strength.
    Going into this season, I suggested that the Minnesota pitching staff would be better than you think. One of the first things national writers generally want to point out is the Twins lack of a clear ace. While they aren't wrong at all, they are somewhat misguided in the need for one. Looking at the landscape of the AL Central, it was pretty fair to suggest the Twins five had the ability to be no worse than middle of the pack in regards to the competition. So far, things are looking to be on par with that assessment.
     
    In Minnesota's losses thus far, the issues have been related to strikeouts and lack of offensive punch, not in getting behind by a boatload of runs. One and two run leads have seemed insurmountable, and Twins starters have taken more than their fair share of tough luck losses.
     
    As things stand currently, Twins pitching as a whole owns a 3.38 cumulative ERA. This is split between the rotation made up of a sum better than it's parts, and a bullpen that has plenty of reason to succeed. That total ranks them 5th in the American League, and behind only the White Sox and Royals among AL Central competitors.
     
    In the AL looking at just starters, the Twins fall behind just a bit. The group owns a 3.79 ERA, good enough for 8th in the league, but again behind only the Royals and White Sox among division competition. Twins starters have done a great job limiting walks, as their 2.68 BB/9 puts them at 5th in the AL and behind the Indians and White Sox when looking at AL Central foes. Again, without a Chris Sale or Corey Kluber at the top, this Twins group is getting the job done.
     
    Of course, as has generally been the case for Minnesota, the strikeouts aren't there at all. With just 6.58 K/9, the Twins rank dead last in the American League. It's a position they've grown relatively accustomed to, and with no true strikeout pitcher, one they'll remain in at least for the foreseeable future. On the surface though, it's hard to be disappointed in the overall results that the starting staff has produced.
     
    Then there's the bullpen, and this is where things get a bit interesting.
     
    On the season, Minnesota's relievers own a 2.59 ERA (6th best in the American League). That tally includes ugly numbers from Glen Perkins and Casey Fien, as well as mediocrity from Kevin Jepsen. The small sample sizes will aloow those stats to continue to be driven down, but being that low nonetheless is a testament to this group. Where the pen really impresses is in the strikeout category.
     
    For 2016, the Twins relief corps owns a 10.15 K/9, good enough for 5th in the American League, and only .40 K/9 off of the vaunted Royals pen. At the end of 2015, the Twins relievers owned a 6.85 K/9 as well as a 3.95 ERA, significantly worse numbers than where they currently find themselves at.
     
    Any time a big league team is under .500, you're in a less than desirable situation. That being said, if there was one thing the Twins were expected to do, it was produce on offense. This team was going to hit, and hit for power. That hasn't completely shown up yet, but the fact that the pitching is there to support it when it does, is no doubt a great thing.
     
    I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest I saw this coming, it hasn't been much of a sample size thus far. That said, knowing Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey, Nick Burdi, and J.T. Chargois are there to pick up the slack when Minnesota needs them, you have to feel good about who's on the mound for Paul Molitor in 2016.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  12. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Mauer Wreaking Havoc At The Plate   
    With the Twins getting a big sweep over the Angels, they seem to have righted the ship to a certain extent. At the center of the good fortune (and sorry to Oswaldo Arcia who has contributed two game winners), is poster child Joe Mauer. The St. Paul native seems to be the story to write this week (pieces at Twins Daily and MLB Daily Dish), and for good reason.
     
    Over the course of the spring, Twins beat writer Mike Berardino often noted when Mauer was and wasn't wearing sunglasses. Now further removed from his position-change-forcing concussion, Mauer was experimenting with different alternatives to give him an edge at the plate. Minnesota's first basemen said that he had struggled to see the ball at time during 2015, and that probably didn't help him as he scuffled to a career worst .265 batting average.
     
    Going into this season, I thought that the extra distance from his injuries issues would give Mauer an edge. During my bold predictions piece, I suggested that the Twins hometown hero would hit .300 again on the season. So far, he's trending towards making that look like a cakewalk.
     
    Through the Twins first 12 games, Mauer is slashing an incredible .372/.472/.415. Mauer has had good April's before, but the 2016 season is different, and you don't have to look to deep to find out why. Currently, Mauer's numbers supporting his results are staggering.
     
    On the season, Mauer owns a 1.8% swinging strike rate, meaning he almost never swings and misses. He's faced four 0-2 counts in which he has swung, and he's gotten base hits each time. Against full counts, Mauer is slashing .500/.727/.667 with five walks and ZERO strikeouts in 11 plate appearances. When pitches have gotten two strikes on Mauer, he's responded with a .400/.520/.450 line. Also, after going down 0-2, Mauer owns an .833/.889/1.000 line on the year. To say he's seeing the ball well doesn't even begin to explain it.
     
    In his heyday, Mauer dictated what would happen when he stepped into the batters box, and he's doing that once again. Through the first handful of games for the Twins, Mauer has told pitchers where than can and cannot throw the ball to him, and he's punished them for missing their spots. Still taking a pitch or two when stepping into the box, it's actually been a scenario in which Mauer has lulled the opposing pitcher into giving him the advantage.
     
    To suggest what Mauer is doing is incredible is probably selling it somewhat short.
     
    We are plenty removed from the days that Joe Mauer was Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player. He's no longer a catcher, and his brain injury has caused his game to change the way he's played. He's never going to be the big bopper first basemen, but what we are seeing in the 2016 Mauer is something Twins fans have long since forgotten the St. Paul native capable of.
     
    It's been three seasons since Mauer has eclipsed the .300 mark. He was last an All Star in 2013, and slashed .324/.404/.476 that year. It was the last in which he spent time playing behind the plate. Now a full time first basemen, Mauer and his sunglasses have put him back into the realm of playing the game he has always been synonymous with.
     
    Credit Mauer for working through the ill effects of his injury and finding a way in which his bat can return to its elite level. His work at first base has also taken significant strides, as he's now above league average defensively at the position. Things are seemingly coming full circle for him, and that's a great thing for the Twins.
     
    It wasn't too long ago that Mauer was on a collision course with the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. He's still got a ways to go, and I opined that there's reason to believe he gets there, but hitting for average as a first basemen isn't going to do anything but help his cause. If he can continue his current approach at the plate for the Twins, he'll be the most valuable player to this squad and it won't be remotely close.
     
    Forget the average and the raw numbers, when looking at how Joe Mauer is generating production in 2016, opposing pitchers should be looking straight up a mountain when trying to consider their ensuing battle.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  13. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from TNTwinsFan for a blog entry, Mauer Wreaking Havoc At The Plate   
    With the Twins getting a big sweep over the Angels, they seem to have righted the ship to a certain extent. At the center of the good fortune (and sorry to Oswaldo Arcia who has contributed two game winners), is poster child Joe Mauer. The St. Paul native seems to be the story to write this week (pieces at Twins Daily and MLB Daily Dish), and for good reason.
     
    Over the course of the spring, Twins beat writer Mike Berardino often noted when Mauer was and wasn't wearing sunglasses. Now further removed from his position-change-forcing concussion, Mauer was experimenting with different alternatives to give him an edge at the plate. Minnesota's first basemen said that he had struggled to see the ball at time during 2015, and that probably didn't help him as he scuffled to a career worst .265 batting average.
     
    Going into this season, I thought that the extra distance from his injuries issues would give Mauer an edge. During my bold predictions piece, I suggested that the Twins hometown hero would hit .300 again on the season. So far, he's trending towards making that look like a cakewalk.
     
    Through the Twins first 12 games, Mauer is slashing an incredible .372/.472/.415. Mauer has had good April's before, but the 2016 season is different, and you don't have to look to deep to find out why. Currently, Mauer's numbers supporting his results are staggering.
     
    On the season, Mauer owns a 1.8% swinging strike rate, meaning he almost never swings and misses. He's faced four 0-2 counts in which he has swung, and he's gotten base hits each time. Against full counts, Mauer is slashing .500/.727/.667 with five walks and ZERO strikeouts in 11 plate appearances. When pitches have gotten two strikes on Mauer, he's responded with a .400/.520/.450 line. Also, after going down 0-2, Mauer owns an .833/.889/1.000 line on the year. To say he's seeing the ball well doesn't even begin to explain it.
     
    In his heyday, Mauer dictated what would happen when he stepped into the batters box, and he's doing that once again. Through the first handful of games for the Twins, Mauer has told pitchers where than can and cannot throw the ball to him, and he's punished them for missing their spots. Still taking a pitch or two when stepping into the box, it's actually been a scenario in which Mauer has lulled the opposing pitcher into giving him the advantage.
     
    To suggest what Mauer is doing is incredible is probably selling it somewhat short.
     
    We are plenty removed from the days that Joe Mauer was Major League Baseball's Most Valuable Player. He's no longer a catcher, and his brain injury has caused his game to change the way he's played. He's never going to be the big bopper first basemen, but what we are seeing in the 2016 Mauer is something Twins fans have long since forgotten the St. Paul native capable of.
     
    It's been three seasons since Mauer has eclipsed the .300 mark. He was last an All Star in 2013, and slashed .324/.404/.476 that year. It was the last in which he spent time playing behind the plate. Now a full time first basemen, Mauer and his sunglasses have put him back into the realm of playing the game he has always been synonymous with.
     
    Credit Mauer for working through the ill effects of his injury and finding a way in which his bat can return to its elite level. His work at first base has also taken significant strides, as he's now above league average defensively at the position. Things are seemingly coming full circle for him, and that's a great thing for the Twins.
     
    It wasn't too long ago that Mauer was on a collision course with the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. He's still got a ways to go, and I opined that there's reason to believe he gets there, but hitting for average as a first basemen isn't going to do anything but help his cause. If he can continue his current approach at the plate for the Twins, he'll be the most valuable player to this squad and it won't be remotely close.
     
    Forget the average and the raw numbers, when looking at how Joe Mauer is generating production in 2016, opposing pitchers should be looking straight up a mountain when trying to consider their ensuing battle.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  14. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, The Curious Case Of Michael Tonkin   
    The 2015 Minnesota Twins returned to relevance for the first time since the 2010 Major League Baseball season. After a rocky first few games, a spring run put Paul Molitor's club in a great position down the stretch. Not being eliminated from playoff contention until the final weekend hampered Minnesota from exploring some less entrenched options, but no one was a by-product of that reality more than Michael Tonkin.
     
    Last season, the Twins jumped down a rabbit hole that has now begun to come full circle. Employing the worst bullpen in the big leagues by multiple statistical measures, they left a lot of things unanswered. One of the biggest misses of those "things" was whether or not Michael Tonkin can be effective at the big league level.
    A season ago, Tonkin was a 25 year old pitching at Triple-A Rochester. On the season, he posted a 1.10 ERA along with a 10.1 K/9 and walked just 1.1 batters per nine innings. After a 2.80 ERA in 2014 at Triple-A, it appeared pretty apparent that Tonkin was ready for a new challenge.
     
    In "understanding" that, the Twins called upon him. In fact, they did so five different times. During the 2015 season, Tonkin was promoted to Minnesota on five different occasions (meaning he was demoted as well). Of those five promotions, two of them lasted just one game, while a third was played out over the course of four appearances. In total, Tonkin gave the Twins 23.1 IP to the tune of a 3.47 ERA and a 7.3 K/9. Those numbers were all compiled while the Twins learned little to nothing about what they had, and in turn, Tonkin about himself.
     
    Sure, Minnesota was in the midst of a competitive season that saw them narrowly miss the playoffs, but does that really excuse things? Remember, the Twins owned one of the big leagues worst bullpens a season ago. A.J. Achter, Tim Stauffer, and Aaron Thompson were given a combined total of 60.2 IP despite none of them owning better than a 5.00 ERA. Brian Duensing, owner of a 4.25 ERA and a 4.4 K/9 threw 48.2 IP for the 2015 Twins, and Casey Fien pumped a 5.83 K/9 rate during his 63.1 IP. To summarize, Minnesota chose to give struggling and low ceiling options more run than instead to figure out what they may be sitting on.
     
    That leads us to where we are now. Over the course of spring training, Tonkin did everything he could to not make the club. Despite being what seemed to be a roster lock thanks to being out of options, the 26 year old generated a 7.88 ERA across 8.0 IP. The small sample size makes numerical conclusions difficult, but he gave up earned runs in four of his seven appearances, and had as many games result in multi-hit appearances. A team looking to improve upon a bad bullpen wouldn't have carried Tonkin, but the Twins saw their hands tied as they still don't know what they have.
     
    At the break of spring training, ESPN 1500's Derek Wetmore asked me if I believed Tonkin would be claimed on waivers, and if so, I would be ok with it. I answered that I thought there was better than a 50% chance he would be, and that it wouldn't necessarily bother me. From a roster standpoint, the Twins relief options on the farm are some of the best in all of baseball. There's reason to believe that the pen is overhauled and turned into an area of strength. From the notion of how Tonkin was handled however, it would be troubling.
     
    In selecting Ricky Nolasco for the rotation, Minnesota spared Tonkin a roster spot. It absolutely should be Tyler Duffey pitching among the five, and Nolasco in the pen, but in handling things the way they did, the Twins once again put Tonkin in an odd spot. Now on the roster as a carryover, Tonkin is being asked to pitch in a long relief role.
    Thus far in his career (60 MLB games) Tonkin has thrown more than 25 pitches just 10 times. Minnesota elected to stretch him out on the Saturday before Opening Day, he threw 53 pitches. In doing so, Tonkin was not available for the rain delayed (per Derek Wetmore and relayed by Curse Of Punto), and didn't make his debut in his new role.
     
    What things have boiled down to with Michael Tonkin is a really unfortunate narrative. A guy that excelled at the highest level of the farm system the past two years was never given an opportunity to produce, is now being included out of necessity, and is being utilized in a less than favorable role. Sure, things could all work out wonderfully, but could there have been a more backwards way of going about it?
    I definitely don't think so.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  15. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from ThejacKmp for a blog entry, The Ricky Shuffle, And Minnesota's Next Moves   
    The day has come and gone, Tyler Duffey and Ricky Nolasco had their show down as spring training draws to a close, and the rotation has been all but set. With Nolasco not seeming a likely rotation option coming into the season, Duffey opened the door with his tough spring, and the veteran capitalized. Now with the rotation looking set, a few other dominoes will fall into place.
     
    Despite getting a vote of confidence from manager Paul Molitor out of the gate, Duffey did the one thing he couldn't afford to do this spring, be mediocre. As a candidate for regression after a very solid final 9 starts in 2015, the former Rice closer needed to hold serve and the rotation spot was his. While he was looking to add a third pitch to his repertoire, a changeup, it was his command that alluded him most down in Florida.
     
    Although Ricky Nolasco was far from a lights out option this spring, he took the door Duffey left cracked open, and kicked it in. Turning in multiple solid performances on the major league side, the man Minnesota owes $24 million over the next two years forced his way back into the team's plans. Now penciled in to be the club's fifth starter, we can begin to wonder what happens next.
     
    First for Nolasco.
     
    I looked at what needs to go right for the former Marlins ace back in February. He is signed on an over-extended contract given his track record in the lesser national league, and he's coming off two poor seasons for the Twins. First and foremost, he needs to be able to find his confidence once again. Falling behind hitters far too often in his tenure with the Twins, he's generally given the guy at the plate the advantage from the get go. From there, his breaking pitches need to return to what they once were. His curveball has looked sharp this spring, and his slider needs to again be an out pitch. If he can make those tweaks happen, Minnesota may get some use out of their big 2014 expense after all.
     
    The dominoes behind Nolasco are the ones that seem almost more intriguing however. It has often been an uttered sentiment that the Twins best case scenario would be for a brief period of positivity causing teams around the big leagues to check in on Nolasco. In reality, he still has a significant chunk of change tied to his name, and Minnesota would have a tough time swallowing the majority of it. Nolasco going well wouldn't be all bad however.
     
    Considering the shape of the AL Central starting rotations, the Twins would have to figure in no worse than third among the grouping. With a solid front three, the inclusion of Tommy Milone and Nolasco as 4th and 5th options is far from a bad thing. As the season gets underway, the back end of the rotation could then serve as somewhat of a revolving door for Molitor.
     
    Despite being sent down, Duffey is going to resurface with the Twins at some point in 2016. My opinion would be that it's after the debut of Jose Berrios, who I believe is the first man up sometime in early may. Berrios got his feet wet this spring, and while he wasn't lights out, he was always going to be held back for service time reasons regardless.
     
    Considering that injuries and shuffles will take place, there's little reason to bank and the starting five staying in tact for the duration of the season. What Nolasco has done in securing a rotation spot however, should be beneficial down the road to the Twins. In terms of Berrios, he presents a realistic roadblock for the immediate future, and in turn allows Duffey to hone in on his newly developing changeup.
     
    Whether Berrios and/or Duffey are called upon due to necessity, or by pushing for their inclusion at the highest level, the Twins will have an extended evaluation period first. Both Milone and Nolasco should be capable of giving the Twins quality starts to open the season, and in grabbing a rotation spot, Nolasco helps to let the chips fall where they may.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  16. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from James for a blog entry, Stacking Up The 2016 Twins With Phil Mackey   
    After a season in which the Minnesota Twins surprised many around baseball, 2016 presents a whole new opportunity for Paul Molitor and his squad. Now no longer toting the weight of multiple 90 loss seasons, Minnesota looks to expand upon its near playoff performance from a season ago. I have contended often that in 2016, the Twins remain the AL Central team most capable of finishing first just as well as last in the division.
     
    Despite having talked about plenty of narratives this offseason here at Off The Baggy, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Twin Cities baseball mind Phil Mackey. He can be heard weekday mornings on 1500 ESPN Radio doing the Mackey and Judd show. While the topics on their show range across all Minnesota sports, Mackey's wheelhouse in no doubt on the diamond, and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the Twins.
    Set up in a question and answer format, Phil fielded a handful of thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota Twins, and offered his perspectives and outcomes for each. Take a look:
     
    Off The Baggy: A season ago the Twins were one of baseball's surprise teams. Needing to push the needle further this season, what is the key factor that makes that happen?
     
    Phil Mackey: They need two things, in general: A better bullpen and more top-end talent on the roster. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and J.O. Berrios could solve the “top-end talent” part of the equation. The bullpen remains to be seen. I love Glen Perkins, and he’s been an awesome contributor to our radio show every week, but can he stay healthy in August and September? Can Kevin Jepsen repeat his performance from last year? I feel pretty good about Jepsen-May-Perkins, if healthy, but the Twins will need guys to really step up and lock down innings 5-7.
     
    OTB: After going into 2015 with a bullpen that should have caused worry, do you feel the same about the 2016 situation or see it as improved?
     
    PM: I think I just answered this question in the previous question, which fits in line with my overachieving personality… The most important thing is for Twins relievers to miss more bats. If I recall, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed more contact that just about any ‘pen in the league over the past couple seasons, which isn’t ideal when we’re talking about holding leads and preventing baserunners from scoring.
     
    OTB: It was pretty apparent Danny Santana seemed ripe for regression last season. What player seems like the most likely to regress in 2016 and why?
     
    PM: Eddie Rosario seems like the obvious answer here, just considering the enormous gap between his strikeout and walk rates… but I’m going to go with Kevin Jepsen. Last year was a career season for him, and I highly doubt that he’ll be able to repeat it. Sort of like Devan Dubnyk with the Wild. Not repeatable. But we’ll see.
     
    OTB: I know you're a big sabermetrics guy. Give me the over/under on some numbers for Eddie Rosario in 2016: 14.0% Swinging Strike, 8 Defensive Runs, Saved 2.0 fWAR
     
    PM: Under on the swinging strike rate… Over on the DRS… Over on the WAR. I think the demise of Eddie Rosario is vastly overstated. He’s a sharp dude with great instincts (do you like those scouting terms in the middle of your saber question?), and I think he’ll find ways to adjust and adapt.
    Of course, I just jinxed him. And now he’ll be terrible.
     
    OTB: There should be no shortage of power in the Twins lineup this season, and the club should have a realistic shot at the 200 plateau. Who hits the most longballs for the Twins, and how many does Byung Ho Park tally?
     
    PM: If Miguel Sano stays healthy, he’ll lead the team with 30-something. I’ll say 36. With Byung Ho, I honestly have no idea. Nothing would surprise me. If he plays every day, and if you set the over/under at 19.5, I’d probably take the over. But it’s possible morph into more of a platoon bat (with Arcia potentially on the roster), which could reduce his total. Byung Ho has plenty of pop, but can he adjust to MLB location and secondary pitches?
     
    Which leads me to a mini-rant… Everyone is so fixated on whether Byung Ho can hit “a major league fastball.” That’s not the issue. I don’t care if every pitch is 100 mph – every professional hitter will square it up if he KNOWS it’s coming. Where MLB pitchers differ most from guys in the KBO, the minors and other inferior organizations is A.) location and B.) command of secondary pitches.
    /rant
     
    OTB: Out of options, and seemingly running out of time, what are your thoughts on Oswaldo Arcia? Is he another potential David Ortiz, or a roster casualty that you're ok losing on waivers?
     
    PM: I think it would be a huge mistake to let him walk for nothing. Oswaldo Arcia will hit 20 or 30 home runs for somebody in 2016 if given enough plate appearances. Not to mention, he already has a track record of destroying right-handed pitching. He’s David Ortiz Light. Or Diet David Ortiz.
     
    OTB: In the rotation, the Twins top three pitchers all have a strong chance to be pretty good this season. Which of the following do you see as the most realistic outcome? Hughes has a bounce back year, Santana pitches like he finished 2015, or Kyle Gibson emerges as the Minnesota ace?
     
    PM: In order of how likely…
    1.) Hughes bounces back
    2.) Santana pitches like he did in second half
    3.) Gibson emerges as the ace
     
    In fact, the Twins’ rotation actually has a lot more upside than people are giving credit. Santana and Hughes have both been able to anchor rotations for long stretches in recent years (when they’re ON), and Berrios could fit that bill too. Now, will ALL of them be lights-out at the same time? Unlikely. But there’s upside.
     
    OTB: Wrapping up the conversation, the Twins should have three realistic rookie of the year candidates. Who do you see making the strongest push between Park, Buxton, and Berrios?
     
    PM: Byron Buxton has the best shot. He’ll start at a premium position and will play every day, immediately. And he doesn’t need to be great at the plate to make a huge impact. If he plays top-notch defense, steals bases and does marginal damage at the plate, he’ll be in the mix. I think his worst-case projection is B.J. Upton.
     
    There you have it, Phil might have started to agree with me on Rosario, but I really like the suggestion of Jepsen being a name to cause some pause. I think the Twins bullpen has the chance to be better than we saw a season ago, although I'm not sure strikeouts will improve a vast amount. Regardless of where the numbers fall across different positional groups on this roster, there's no arguing that the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins has the most intrigue of any team in recent memory.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  17. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from nytwinsfan for a blog entry, Stacking Up The 2016 Twins With Phil Mackey   
    After a season in which the Minnesota Twins surprised many around baseball, 2016 presents a whole new opportunity for Paul Molitor and his squad. Now no longer toting the weight of multiple 90 loss seasons, Minnesota looks to expand upon its near playoff performance from a season ago. I have contended often that in 2016, the Twins remain the AL Central team most capable of finishing first just as well as last in the division.
     
    Despite having talked about plenty of narratives this offseason here at Off The Baggy, I recently had the opportunity to speak with Twin Cities baseball mind Phil Mackey. He can be heard weekday mornings on 1500 ESPN Radio doing the Mackey and Judd show. While the topics on their show range across all Minnesota sports, Mackey's wheelhouse in no doubt on the diamond, and he's one of the best in the business when it comes to breaking down the Twins.
    Set up in a question and answer format, Phil fielded a handful of thoughts on the 2016 Minnesota Twins, and offered his perspectives and outcomes for each. Take a look:
     
    Off The Baggy: A season ago the Twins were one of baseball's surprise teams. Needing to push the needle further this season, what is the key factor that makes that happen?
     
    Phil Mackey: They need two things, in general: A better bullpen and more top-end talent on the roster. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and J.O. Berrios could solve the “top-end talent” part of the equation. The bullpen remains to be seen. I love Glen Perkins, and he’s been an awesome contributor to our radio show every week, but can he stay healthy in August and September? Can Kevin Jepsen repeat his performance from last year? I feel pretty good about Jepsen-May-Perkins, if healthy, but the Twins will need guys to really step up and lock down innings 5-7.
     
    OTB: After going into 2015 with a bullpen that should have caused worry, do you feel the same about the 2016 situation or see it as improved?
     
    PM: I think I just answered this question in the previous question, which fits in line with my overachieving personality… The most important thing is for Twins relievers to miss more bats. If I recall, the Twins’ bullpen has allowed more contact that just about any ‘pen in the league over the past couple seasons, which isn’t ideal when we’re talking about holding leads and preventing baserunners from scoring.
     
    OTB: It was pretty apparent Danny Santana seemed ripe for regression last season. What player seems like the most likely to regress in 2016 and why?
     
    PM: Eddie Rosario seems like the obvious answer here, just considering the enormous gap between his strikeout and walk rates… but I’m going to go with Kevin Jepsen. Last year was a career season for him, and I highly doubt that he’ll be able to repeat it. Sort of like Devan Dubnyk with the Wild. Not repeatable. But we’ll see.
     
    OTB: I know you're a big sabermetrics guy. Give me the over/under on some numbers for Eddie Rosario in 2016: 14.0% Swinging Strike, 8 Defensive Runs, Saved 2.0 fWAR
     
    PM: Under on the swinging strike rate… Over on the DRS… Over on the WAR. I think the demise of Eddie Rosario is vastly overstated. He’s a sharp dude with great instincts (do you like those scouting terms in the middle of your saber question?), and I think he’ll find ways to adjust and adapt.
    Of course, I just jinxed him. And now he’ll be terrible.
     
    OTB: There should be no shortage of power in the Twins lineup this season, and the club should have a realistic shot at the 200 plateau. Who hits the most longballs for the Twins, and how many does Byung Ho Park tally?
     
    PM: If Miguel Sano stays healthy, he’ll lead the team with 30-something. I’ll say 36. With Byung Ho, I honestly have no idea. Nothing would surprise me. If he plays every day, and if you set the over/under at 19.5, I’d probably take the over. But it’s possible morph into more of a platoon bat (with Arcia potentially on the roster), which could reduce his total. Byung Ho has plenty of pop, but can he adjust to MLB location and secondary pitches?
     
    Which leads me to a mini-rant… Everyone is so fixated on whether Byung Ho can hit “a major league fastball.” That’s not the issue. I don’t care if every pitch is 100 mph – every professional hitter will square it up if he KNOWS it’s coming. Where MLB pitchers differ most from guys in the KBO, the minors and other inferior organizations is A.) location and B.) command of secondary pitches.
    /rant
     
    OTB: Out of options, and seemingly running out of time, what are your thoughts on Oswaldo Arcia? Is he another potential David Ortiz, or a roster casualty that you're ok losing on waivers?
     
    PM: I think it would be a huge mistake to let him walk for nothing. Oswaldo Arcia will hit 20 or 30 home runs for somebody in 2016 if given enough plate appearances. Not to mention, he already has a track record of destroying right-handed pitching. He’s David Ortiz Light. Or Diet David Ortiz.
     
    OTB: In the rotation, the Twins top three pitchers all have a strong chance to be pretty good this season. Which of the following do you see as the most realistic outcome? Hughes has a bounce back year, Santana pitches like he finished 2015, or Kyle Gibson emerges as the Minnesota ace?
     
    PM: In order of how likely…
    1.) Hughes bounces back
    2.) Santana pitches like he did in second half
    3.) Gibson emerges as the ace
     
    In fact, the Twins’ rotation actually has a lot more upside than people are giving credit. Santana and Hughes have both been able to anchor rotations for long stretches in recent years (when they’re ON), and Berrios could fit that bill too. Now, will ALL of them be lights-out at the same time? Unlikely. But there’s upside.
     
    OTB: Wrapping up the conversation, the Twins should have three realistic rookie of the year candidates. Who do you see making the strongest push between Park, Buxton, and Berrios?
     
    PM: Byron Buxton has the best shot. He’ll start at a premium position and will play every day, immediately. And he doesn’t need to be great at the plate to make a huge impact. If he plays top-notch defense, steals bases and does marginal damage at the plate, he’ll be in the mix. I think his worst-case projection is B.J. Upton.
     
    There you have it, Phil might have started to agree with me on Rosario, but I really like the suggestion of Jepsen being a name to cause some pause. I think the Twins bullpen has the chance to be better than we saw a season ago, although I'm not sure strikeouts will improve a vast amount. Regardless of where the numbers fall across different positional groups on this roster, there's no arguing that the 2016 version of the Minnesota Twins has the most intrigue of any team in recent memory.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  18. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from KGB for a blog entry, From Minnesota To The Show   
    When it comes to thinking of baseball talent hotbeds, Minnesota probably isn't high on the list. The state deals with cold weather and snow from the better (or worse) half of the year. Regardless of Twins Territory being a passionate grouping of Major League fans, the high school scene doesn't draw as much national attention. There are the outliers however; the Joe Mauer's, Paul Molitor's, and Logan Shore.
     
    Sure, Shore isn't yet on the level of a Hall of Famer, and another guy with the potential to reach that rank. What he is however, is a kid from Coon Rapids (a northern suburb of Minneapolis), that has vaulted onto the national stage. Initially drafted by the Twins in the 29th round of the 2013 MLB draft (due to his strong commitment to the University of Florida), Shore did in fact follow through and head to Gainesville.
     
    Now a Junior for the #1 ranked Gators, Shore has planted himself atop many draft boards. Through his first three starts, Shore owns a 0.43 ERA giving up just eight hits and one earned run while walking two and striking out 22 in 21.0 innings. He's got a complete game shutout under his belt, and he's been the nation's most unhittable pitcher.
     
    In between dominating starts for Florida, I had the opportunity to interview Shore. We talked about his college experience, baseball, and what's to come.
     
    Off The Baggy: Having been the Friday starter since almost day one with the Gators, how has your approach to the way you have pitched changed and evolved over your time at Florida?
     
    Logan Shore: I think the approach I have has not changed a whole lot of freshman year to junior year. I have always had the approach of attacking hitters with my pitches and I think if anything has changed it would be that I try to pitch more aggressively now. Coach O’Sullivan does a tremendous job of teaching us how to pitch and helping us understand the mental side of pitching.
     
    OTB: Tell me about your arsenal on the mound, what pitches you feel you utilize best, and what you feel most comfortable using to attack opposing hitters?
     
    LS: I have a three-pitch mix. I throw a fastball, changeup and a slider. My best pitch besides my fastball is my changeup and I feel comfortable throwing that in any count.
     
    OTB: Having been dominant in high school for Coon Rapids, what was the biggest change to your game pitching at the collegiate level?
     
    LS: I think that the biggest difference and change from pitching at Coon Rapids High School to pitching in the SEC is that anyone in the SEC can hurt you. I have learned that I have to make quality pitches to every hitter in the lineup and learned that I need my two off-speed pitches to get people out, and not just my fastball.
     
    OTB: Being drafted by the Twins out of high school and instead choosing to go to college, what do you feel has been the biggest improvement in your game since that time?
     
    LS: I think that the biggest thing that I have improved on is my third pitch, which is my slider. I have always been a fastball/change-up pitcher, but utilizing my slider and truly having a three-pitch mix has been my biggest improvement. Also, having the experience of pitching on Friday nights in the SEC has given me confidence moving forward.
     
    OTB: Looking ahead to the upcoming draft, what do you see as the biggest area of focus to elevate your game to the big league level.
     
    LS: The biggest area of focus for me right now is to get the Gators back to Omaha and win a national championship. After coming so close in 2015 and getting a taste of what it takes to win in in the postseason, I am excited to be a part of such a special team in 2016. As far as the draft goes, I try to not think about it very much. Obviously it is there, and it will be there in June, but I feel the more I, along with the other guys on my team, are focused on winning, the better the draft process will play out for myself and everyone else.
     
    OTB: Pitching in the SEC has no doubt seen you go up against some of the game’s best. Battling with 2015 top draft picks Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is solid preparation for the pro game. What helps you face, and ultimately succeed, against hitters of their caliber?
     
    LS: Facing guys like Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman is difficult. The one thing that I do to prepare to face guys of this caliber is know who they are as hitters and pitch to my strengths. I watch a lot of video and do a lot of homework before each start to learn who I am facing, and have a plan of how I want to attack each hitter. The one thing I can always control is how I prepare, and I feel that if I prepare and stay true to my routine the game will take care of itself.
     
    OTB: Finally, as a hometown kid, the storybook ending would no doubt be a second selection by the Twins. Envisioning the draft experience as a whole however, what excites you most about the process this time around?
     
    LS: I am excited to have an opportunity to potentially be selected by a team in the MLB Draft. It has always been a dream of mine to play professional baseball. Being drafted by the Twins would be an extra bonus on top of that. It is a long season, and a lot still to be done, but I am excited to see what happens.
     
    No doubt Logan is focused in the right areas. Working to get back to Omaha, helping the Gators to a 12-1 record to start the year is a great place to be. The winning has come, and as Florida gets into SEC play, Shore will be a catalyst in helping it continue. Focus and determination are equally as important as talent, and for Shore, the trifecta is there.
     
    Likely a first round selection in Major League Baseball's June Draft, Minnesota picking 15th will be clued in on the hometown talent. Regardless of where he goes, success is sure to follow Shore.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  19. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Platoon for a blog entry, What's The Narrative For Twins Relief?   
    During the 2015 season, few areas were worse off than the Twins bullpen. Minnesota didn't strike anyone out, there were largely without reliable arms, and late game leads were far from safe. Coming into 2016, making an improvement in relief was no doubt a priority, but the execution of that decision seemed to come from different trains of thought.
     
    Now with the 2016 season nearly here, the Twins bullpen has largely been decided. Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, and Trevor May are all locks. Casey Fien was offered a new deal through arbitration, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Former free agent signee Ricky Nolasco needs a place to pitch, and Minnesota needs another lefty in relief. Outside of the question as to whether it will be Fernando Abad or Taylor Rogers, Paul Molitor's relief corps seems decided upon.
     
    The group assembled in 2016 will be looking to take some significant steps forward. A year ago, Twins relievers struck out an MLB worst 6.85 per nine innings. A 4.20 FIP was among the lower third in the big leagues, and a 1.7 fWAR had the group tied for 7th worst in the majors. Outside of Glen Perkins' first half, and Kevin Jepsen's late season boost, things could have been markedly worse.
     
    So in making the bullpen a priority, Terry Ryan and the Twins needed to fix things. A season ago, they were caught making remarks that the collective media needed to relax, and that things would be just fine. That obviously couldn't have been further from the truth, but those sentiments have not been muttered this time. Instead, the Twins have stood their ground and watched as arms have been signed while they've stood idly by.
     
    In fact, it's their inaction that has brought up the question, just what is the narrative for the Twins relievers in 2016? As Matt Thornton, another lefty, was plucked off the market on an MiLB deal, this comment was offered on Twitter:
    The problem is, I'm not sure that's entirely fair.
     
    Without a doubt the Twins stood pat when it came to the bullpen in a larger sense, but in the grand scheme of things, they really didn't. Knowing the club needed a lefty, Ryan went out and nabbed Abad on a minor league deal. An organizational belief that he was tipping his pitches to the tune of a 4.15 ERA a season ago, Abad is just a year removed from a 1.57 ERA and 8.0 K/9. Should he return to any semblance of that, a nominal MiLB deal could end up being the best move of the winter.
     
    Minnesota repeated that same type of acquisition in claiming former Brewers lefty Mike Strong, and targeting Dan Runzler along with Buddy Boshers. The trio no doubt has a significantly lower upside than that of Abad, but Minnesota only needs one of the group to stick.
     
    Then there's the reality that relief arms are actually an area of strength for Ryan at the present time. Mostly on the right side, Minnesota has Alex Meyer, J.T. Chargois, Nick Burdi, and Jake Reed all looking like they should be capable of big league innings this year. Add in lefty Taylor Rogers, and there's plenty of home grown options that have ceilings largely greater than what the market presented.
     
    Back to the point above, how can we actually view a Twins collapse? If things don't work out with Abad, Rogers, or one of the other lefty candidates, what gets said? Should it be that Ryan needed to spend $18 million for three years of Tony Sipp? Maybe $12 million for two years of Antonio Bastardo made sense? The reality is however, that relievers are generally a fickle beast, and something that can be made out of nowhere. Sipp is a couple of years removed from a near 5.00 ERA while Bastardo almost posted a 4.00 mark in 2014.
     
    So, is there a right way or a wrong way to be upset should things crash and burn for the Twins? The short answer is that I don't know. However, I've always been a big proponent of bullpens either being creative, or expensive, the middle ground is an ugly desolate wasteland. Right now, the Twins fall in the former category (with a team like the Yankees being the blueprint for the later).
     
    Ryan didn't go spend on a position (albeit of need), that is often easy to develop, and one with internal options. He's banking on internal evaluations saying that Abad will work out, and that the kids who've been knocking on the door are ready to go. Big contracts in the pen would have no doubt delayed a more deserving arm (Ricky Nolasco anyone?), and it's time the Twins system becomes utilized at the big league level.
     
    Nothing says that Minnesota's relief corps will take a massive step forward in the year ahead. Deciding to go with top prospects and good (low risk) bets though, is a strategy I can applaud. We'll soon see how it plays out, but at the end of the day, I'm not sure to stiff of an argument can be made against the process.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  20. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Dozier's Glorious Hair for a blog entry, The Reality Of Escobar   
    It's become a point of contention in some circles that the Minnesota Twins may not have a level of certainty at the shortstop position. Unfortunately, that notion couldn't be further from the truth, at least for the time being. Going into 2016, there's no doubt Eduardo Escobar has earned the right to start every day, and the expectation should be that he'll succeed.
     
    Way back when, I touched on the Twins continuing to benefit from the trade that sent Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox. Escobar was the return, and it relatively early on it appeared to be a good one. Over the course of the last season however, that return looked great.
     
    Going into the 2015 season, Escobar was the utility man looked at as a secondary option for arguably the infield's most pivotal position. After Danny Santana looked the part of a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2014, he was going to be given every opportunity to start at short for first year manager Paul Molitor. You'd be hard pressed to find many that weren't ok with that decision. Santana looked prime for regression, but his new infield role was one he also seemed capable of taking over.
     
    Then the season got underway.
     
    It was always fair to assume that Santana was going to take a step back offensively. After owning a .405 BABIP in 2014, there was a less than zero chance he was going to put up the same kind of slash line (.319/.353/.472). What actually took place though was a level of regression that would be teetering on the brink of catastrophe.
     
    Not only did Santana regress at the plate, he feel off completely. In 91 major league games during the 2015 season, Santana slashed a paltry .215/.241/.291. He took a grand total of six walks in over 260 at bats, and stuck out nearly 70 times. As bad as his offensive game was though, it wasn't even the real problem. At shortstop, Santana started 65 games and turned in 16 errors while being worth -15 DRS. By all statistical measures, Santana was one of the worst players in all of baseball at the position.
     
    Enter Eduardo Escobar.
     
    Following Santana's [prolonged] demotion, Escobar was given his opportunity. Fortunately for both Molitor and the Twins, he did everything he could with it. When the dust settled on 2015, Escobar owned a .262/.309/.445 slash line. He provided the Twins with 12 homers and doubled 31 times. His OPS was 4th best among shortstops, better than everyone not named Brandon Crawford, Tulo, or Bogaerts. In the final month of the season, Escobar only got more impressive slashing .280/.331/.486.
     
    On the defensive side of the ball, Escobar provided an uptick as well. He ended up starting 71 games for the Twins a season ago, making just four errors. His 2 DRS and 2.6 UZR marks were some of the best posted by a Twins shortstop (and his complete game made him a significantly better fit than the defensive minded Pedro Florimon). Looking at his contributions as a whole, Escobar more than got the job done for Minnesota.
     
    At points throughout 2015, it might have been fair to wonder whether or not the Twins would bein on free agent Ian Desmond (who still remains an unsigned FA after rejecting the Nationals qualifying offer). What became apparent as the months drew on however, is that the Twins had an internal option, and a relatively good one at that.
     
    Despite having youth with promise at the shortstop position on the farm, both Nick Gordon and Wander Javier being representative of that, Escobar can make the role his for the time being. At just 27 years old, it appears Escobar would be a late-prime player, and someone the Twins can pencil in as they push towards playoff relevancy once again. Far more than simply a stopgap option, Escobar vaulted himself into the conversation as one of the big leagues most complete at a premium spot.
     
    Never are the Twins going to see Escobar be a high on base guy, he simply doesn't walk enough. However, he makes a ton of contact, actually decreased his swing and miss tendencies a year ago, and doesn't chase all that often. His approach at the plate should be capable of repeating his 2015 performance, and a full season of that kind of production is only going to benefit the Twins.
     
    Sure, Escobar isn't the flashy name that Troy Tulowtizki is, and he may never be another Xander Bogaerts, but asking the Twins to do better is telling them to replace someone that is already competing at a very high level. For the first time since [the thought of] J.J. Hardy, the Twins have the shortstop position figured out.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  21. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Bold Predictions For The 2016 Twins   
    Going into the 2016 Major League Baseball season, the Minnesota Twins have plenty on their plate when it comes to expectations. After having a winning season for the first time since 2010, and making a push for the playoffs, second year manager Paul Molitor will have his hands full when trying to fight off taking a step backwards.
     
    In 2015, the Twins did some things really well, but maybe more importantly than anything, they were handed a good deal of luck. Playing well above average in high leverage situations, and being gifted opportune situations, Minnesota took advantage as well as any team in baseball. Expecting those scenarios to replicate themselves isn't a good bet, so the Twins will need to push the envelope on their own.
     
    Should the Twins find themselves in an opportune position come October, some of the following bold predictions will no doubt have to play out. Without further ado, here we go. Your 2nd annual Off The Baggy bold predictions for the Minnesota Twins:
     
    Joe Mauer Will Hit .300 Again
     
    This offseason, Mauer has spoken off the repercussions he has dealt with following his concussion troubles from behind the plate. Most notably, his vision problems have caused him to have trouble picking up the ball at the plate. Another season removed from the traumatic brain injury, Mauer will hit over .300 for the first time since the 2013 season.
     
    At this point, he's settled in defensively at first base, and now it's time for his bat to come around. The power stroke won't be there, but Mauer should be capable of producing a .305/.390/.410 slash line. He's got extra lineup protection, and if Molitor dropped him in the lineup, an even bigger spike should be expected.
     
    Alex Meyer Will Be An Impressive Piece Of The Twins Pen
     
    In 2015, few parts of the Minnesota roster were worse off than the relief corps. Outside of an unreal first half by closer Glen Perkins, the group struck out no one, and couldn't be counted upon to hold down a lead. This year, flame throwing youth such as Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, and J.T. Chargois should change that. Before all of them though, former top prospect Alex Meyer should make the difference.
     
    Meyer know doubt took his lumps as a starter in Triple-A during the 2015 campaign. Seen by many as a reliever long term though, the tall hurler put it together at the end. Deserving of a September call up, Meyer owned a 0.79 ERA and allowed just a .192/.293/.205 slash line against across his final 10 games (22.2 IP). In that time frame, he struck out 22 while walking just 10. With Meyer, there's always going to be heightened walk issues, but he's also capable of blowing it by big league hitters. 2016 should see Meyer become one of the most untouchable pitchers in the Twins bullpen.
     
    Goodbye To Jorge Polanco Or Eddie Rosario
     
    Defensively, you'd be hard pressed to find a better rookie in 2015 than Rosario. He gave the Twins 16 assists, was worth 11 defensive runs saved, and put up a 7.4 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). As a defender, Rosario was worthy of the highest praise. Offensively though, the story was much more smoke and mirrors. Despite a respectable .267/.289/.459 slash line, his numbers were bolstered by an unrepeatable 15 triples. The rookie swung and missed just shy of 15% of the time, and chased out of the zone nearly 50% of the time, neither a recipe for success.
     
    Coming to Polanco, the story is virtually the opposite. Forced into playing shortstop, despite arm concerns, due to Brian Dozier holding down second base, Polanco struggled. In 102 games between AA-AAA in 2015, Polanco committed 28 errors at short. In fact, he totaled eight errors in just 19 games at the Triple-A level. His bat has rarely been a question, and his .288/.339/.386 slash across both levels suggests it's major league ready. Unfortunately with the Twins, he's a man without a position.
     
    At some point in the year ahead, Max Kepler should push Rosario for playing time in left field. Should Rosario continue to swing and miss, he becomes a 4th outfielder for the Twins in a best case scenario. With value as high as it may even be, a trade could be the Twins best move. Similarly with Polanco, Minnesota will be forced into a decision. Dozier isn't moving any time soon, and Polanco hasn't given the Twins much defensive hope. Packaging him for some sort of return could be a good bet in the year ahead.
     
    Byung Ho Launches 30 Homers
     
    Surprising most of the baseball world, the Twins ended up winning the bid for the KBO superstar. Park comes to the Twins on an incredibly team friendly deal, even if things don't work out. The expectation though, should be that they will. Fresh off of two 50 home run seasons in Korea, Byung Ho brings his talents to the major leagues.
     
    Having struck out 142 and 161 times in the past two seasons respectively, Park is going to eclipse the 200 strikeout mark for the Twins. Major league pitching will present a new test for him, but the 29 year old should also bring plenty of talent to the plate on his own. There's no doubt going to be an acclimation period, but Park surpassing the 30 home run barrier seems like a pretty good bet. Fellow KBO star, Jung Ho Kang smashed 15 homers for the Pirates in 2015 despite playing just 126 games and starting slow. Park, the superior talent, should dwarf that number and have the Twins thanking him for it.
     
    Jose Berrios Impersonates Jacob deGrom
     
    More than any time in recent memory, the Twins have significant pitching depth. With a handful of capable arms, they are looking for some to rise to the top. Enter top pitching prospect Jose Berrios. I expect him to debut sometime in May, and make over 20 starts for the Twins. With that kind of run in front of him, I expect the hard working Puerto Rican to push for Jacob deGrom type rookie numbers.
     
    In his rookie season, deGrom won the NL Rookie of the Year behind a 2.69 ERA and a 9.2 K/9 while walking just 2.8 per nine innings. He gave up just seven homers and pitched just over 140 innings for the Mets. Berrios actually got better at Triple-A (2.62 ERA as opposed to 3.08 at Double-A) and owned a ridiculous 1.08 ERA across his final four starts. Berrios tallied two double-digit strikeout games in 12 Triple-A starts, and added two more starts with nine sat down. Often discounted by national types, Berrios should come onto the scene and immediately be viewed as an ace for Minnesota.
     
    There you have it, your five bold predictions for the 2016 Minnesota Twins. No doubt not all of them will happen, but each of them presents a very solid opportunity for the Twins to bolster their chances at a realistic playoff run. Going out on a limb and suggesting what may be a bit of a reach, only puts the situation in play to be something to strive for. With the Twins bold predictions now handled, I'll leave you with this:
     
    Royals Win The Central, But No Team Wins Or Loses 90 Games
     
    Somewhat similar to my feelings last year on the latter half, I'll give the Royals their due in the former part of this equation. Coming off a World Series win, it's probably time to stop picking against Kansas City. I hate their rotation, and don't expect some of the offensive pieces to be as good as they were (Moustakas/Cain), but that probably isn't enough to knock them out of the top spot.
     
    With no real clear cut favorite in the division, no team should run away with things, or fall too far behind. The Central should be a division that beats up on one another, and a group of teams in which no one is great or equally horrible. What that gives baseball fans is a full season worth of games that all make the outcome incredibly important.
     
    Spring Training is nearly in full swing, and it's time to welcome back Major League Baseball. Here we go.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  22. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from Oldgoat_MN for a blog entry, Sano Problem, He's Already One Of The Best   
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
     
    Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him.
     
    Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in.
     
    From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field.
     
    Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player.
     
    Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down.
     
    Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time.
     
    On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased.
     
    At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  23. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from brvama for a blog entry, Sano Problem, He's Already One Of The Best   
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
     
    Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him.
     
    Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in.
     
    From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field.
     
    Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player.
     
    Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down.
     
    Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time.
     
    On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased.
     
    At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  24. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from howieramone2 for a blog entry, Sano Problem, He's Already One Of The Best   
    This offseason, the Minnesota Twins and Terry Ryan announced that they'd be moving their hulking slugger to right field. Despite having DH'd for the majority of 2015 and having played in the infield thus far, Miguel Sano was moving on to greener pastures. The changes has been met with skepticism, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
     
    Let's start off internally. Minnesota employed Torii Hunter in right last year. He gave Paul Molitor a .240/.293/.409 slash line on offense, while making six errors in the field en route to a -8 DRS (defensive runs saved) total, and a 0.3 UZR (ultimate zone rating). In total, he was worth just 0.5 fWAR and was almost solely valuable for the locker room presence he was toted to bring with him.
     
    Considering that narrative, it's pretty plausible to suggest that Sano is immediately going to be better for Minnesota than hunter was. Offensively, in just 80 games, the Dominican slugger posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line along with 18 homers and 52 runs batted in. By all indications, Sano is going to be an offensive juggernaut for years to come. Considering that offensive prowess, and the low bar Hunter left in right, Sano should have no problem settling in.
     
    From there though, it's also a legitimate argument to look at Sano among baseball's best in right field.
     
    Purely from an offensive standpoint, Sano takes a back seat to no one. After posting a 2.0 fWAR across just half a season, Steamer projects Sano to improve that mark to a 3.4 fWAR in 2016, and that may be conservative. Defensively, Sano shouldn't hurt his value too significantly (if at all), and a full season of offense could definitely vault him into the realm of a 4.0 fWAR player.
     
    Looking at what right field offers across the landscape of big leaguers, Sano would come in 7th (just behind Jose Bautista) should he reach that 4.0 fWAR mark. The players ahead of him would be few, and include just Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz, and the aforementioned Bautista. Looking at that group, it's also fair to suggest that with any bit of acclimation to his new role, Sano could overtake everyone from Granderson on down.
     
    Pushing Sano to right field, while maybe not the most well received, seems to be shaping up like the correct move. A gifted athlete, Sano should have very little trouble once he settles in. Being a third basemen, it's more than fair to suggest that standing in right field would be a much less taxing defensive role. Utilizing his quickness from the hot corner, and his arm strength, Sano possesses some unteachable abilities. Surprisingly fleet of foot for his size, Sano can also be taught many of the nuances the position will demand should he commit to putting in the time.
     
    On the surface, it's totally understandable to be somewhat taken aback or skeptical of the Twins decision to follow through with the Sano to the outfield campaign. When taking a deeper look at how it may play out though, there's little reason to suggest it doesn't put Molitor's best lineup on the field. Even if things work out moderately well, Minnesota will have to be pleased.
     
    At the end of the day, if Miguel Sano can't play right field, he's not going to be able to play third base. The assumption though should be that he can, and will play right field. With a little bit of work and some luck, he could vault himself into the best at the position in The Show, and that's no small feat.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
  25. Like
    Ted Schwerzler got a reaction from dbminn for a blog entry, What Must Happen For Twins In Florida?   
    Baseball fans, you've made it. At this point in the winter, the offseason is nearing its conclusion, and you are about to be rewarded with the month long grind that is spring training. For the Minnesota Twins, a team coming off of a breakout season a year ago, there's some key steps to be taken in the month ahead however.
     
    As pitchers and catchers embark on sunny Fort Myers, the Twins will soon be in full swing over at the CenturyLink Sports Complex. Now in his second season as manager, Paul Molitor will have a few narratives he needs to force playing out. Should Terry Ryan's relative inactivity this offseason fail to hurt the Twins, it will be because of the internal scenarios making the best of themselves.
     
    Here are the key areas of focus for the Twins as they build towards their return to Target Field.
     
    Cement for the pen
    A season ago, you'd have been hard pressed to find a bigger problem area for Molitor's club than in the relief arms it employed. Going into 2016, the only guarantees in the pen are Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen. From there, the expectation would be that Trevor May and Casey Fien are included in the group. Fernando Abad is the likely lefty, and Michael Tonkin is out of options. Ricky Nolasco probably figures into the situation as well. When camp breaks, Minnesota absolutely must have answers in relief.
     
    Sano falls smoothly in right
     
    Terry Ryan was hesitant to trade Trevor Plouffe, and for good reason. Minnesota held onto their third basemen, and that forced Miguel Sano to find another way into the field. Bringing Byung Ho Park into the fold, just bringing a bat to the park was a thing of the past for the Twins slugger. Now expected to take over for Torii Hunter in right field, Sano needs to make it work. A good athlete, and less than large defensive shoes to fill, Sano could very well succeed in his new role. Down in fort Myers, the Dominican native will need to do everything he can to push himself and get the stumbles out of the way prior to games counting.
     
    Have bat, will travel for Byron Buxton
     
    The Twins uber prospect Byron Buxton made his big league debut in 2015, and it was anything but ideal. His defensive prowess showed immediately, but his offensive game left Twins brass hoping for mediocrity. In his second big league season, Buxton will need to flash the offensive tools he's displayed on the farm. During spring training, Buxton will need to put balls in play, get on base, and cause havoc on the basepaths. It needs to be a big step forward for baseball's best prospect, and it'll start down in Florida.
     
    Welcome Park to the big leagues
     
    Terry Ryan shocked much of the baseball world this offseason when his Twins made the winning bid for Korean slugger Byung Ho Park. After two seasons in which he hit a combiner 100+ homers in the KBO, his power has to be his saving grace in the big leagues. Adept with the glove, it's the offense that Minnesota is relying on Park for. His average can dip, and with the strikeouts, it will. Park needs to get a couple of longballs under his belt down in Fort Myers, and his transition to the MLB game needs to happen as smoothly as possible.
     
    Non-roster, non-issue
     
    Almost more than any other season of memory, the Twins non-roster invitees for 2016 spring training are compiled of a star studded list. From Jose Berrios to Nick Burdi, the group is definitely pitcher heavy this time around. Considering the Twins are looking for front running rotation talent as well as bullpen arms, that's a good situation to be in. Down in Fort Myers, the non-roster guys need to step up. Berrios could do some serious work in regards to pushing himself closer to the 25 man, and Nick Burdi or Jake Reed could begin to force the Twins hand sooner rather than later.
     
    Health above everything
     
    Although depth is something this Twins team may have more than any other in the past, relying on it early isn't a good plan. Considering there's plenty of position and roster battles that will play out throughout the year, the last thing Paul Molitor wants is to see things decided by injury. Whether on the field or off of it, Minnesota needs to leave the Grapefruit League as healthy as they entered it.
     
    The 2016 Minnesota Twins do not need to see all of these key areas play out to perfection to accomplish big things in the year ahead. However, the more they can count on out of the gate, the better chance they'll have to build on what was a successful 2015. We're almost there, and the smell of the freshly cut grass is more than apparent.
     
    For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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