Ted Schwerzler

There is a growing optimism that the Minnesota Twins bullpen could be one of the better units in the league. Plenty of that stems from the high-leverage portion of the group, but it could depend on how the depth in lower-leverage works. Image courtesy of © Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Minnesota Twins had one of the best starting rotations in all baseball. Rocco Baldelli would love to see this group replicate that, but Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober must step up behind Pablo Lopez to avoid a dropoff. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are gone, so if the Twins are going to be among the best bullpens in baseball, they’ll need to supplement a starting rotation that has lost some of its depth. The front office has never spent substantially on the bullpen, save for Addison Reed. That remains true this year, and the back-end group featuring Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar all come in with minimal salary considerations. Supplementing them this year is a group acquired through Jorge Polanco and Nick Gordon's trades and shrewd free-agent pickups. How well the secondary bullpen group performs is a two-fold look at situations. First, what can be expected in a more significant sample from Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert? Topa was the veteran prize acquired from Seattle in exchange for Polanco. He’s 32 years old but isn’t a free agent until 2027. Before last season, he had just 18 1/3 innings pitched at the major league level and allowed 17 runs for Milwaukee during that exposure. Blossoming into a force with Seattle last season, Topa threw 69 innings and owned a 2.61 ERA. His 3.15 FIP wasn’t far off, and his 8.0 K/9 was more than serviceable. He allowed only 2.3 BB/9 and gave up just four home runs. Suppose Topa can replicate that success for Minnesota or even take another step forward. In that case, he will be a direct replacement for the 2023 version of Emilio Pagan and will provide Baldelli with a high-level option earlier in games. Needing a bridge for starters like Chris Paddack and Anthony DeSclafani, who could have innings limits, is the type of arm a bullpen needs. Like Topa, Jackson is a late bloomer in that he’s 36 years old and has yet to hit arbitration. A 2008 draft pick, Jackson didn’t make the majors until 2015, then reappeared in 2019 before finally working 29 2/3 innings last season with the Blue Jays. Jackson posted a 2.12 ERA for Toronto in 2023, but his 4.20 FIP suggests some smoke and mirrors to that number. Jackson put up similar strikeout and walk numbers to Topa, but he allowed home runs at twice the frequency. He’s not an exceptionally hard-throwing player, and there isn’t a reason to expect he’ll work deeper into the group's hierarchy. However, if Jackson can substantiate his 2023 performance, he would give depth options like Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk more time to hone in at the Triple-A level. Speaking of a left-handed arm, the Twins did well to grab another pitcher from the Marlins when they sent out-of-options Nick Gordon to Miami. Steven Okert pairs with Thielbar as a relief southpaw, and Baldelli now has another option. The former Marlin has racked up strikeouts throughout his career, and despite the 4.45 ERA last season, he put up a 2.89 ERA the two seasons prior. Over the past three years, his FIP has remained over 4.00, and he gives up a good deal of dingers, but there’s a good arm here if he can keep the ball in the yard. One of Minnesota's relief corps's most significant question marks may be former Kansas City Royals reliever Josh Staumont. He is no longer the fireballing high-leverage guy; he is also past the thoracic outlet surgery he underwent and has a clean bill of health. The hope would be that he can make a new arsenal work after having pitched injured for quite some time. At his best in 2021, Staumont was a guy who struck out a ton of batters with a good amount of velocity. He has never allowed many home runs, but in the past two seasons, the command and control within the zone have escaped him. A new offering may be on the table this year, and, if his arm is healthy, then a new level of effectiveness could also be expected. For as deep as the Twins rotation was a season ago, the bullpen could experience that depth this season, and Baldelli will have the opportunity to get creative when working matchups on a game-by-game basis. View full article

Realistically, there are very few questions at the tippy top of the Minnesota Twins rotation, but the pitchers that directly follow Pablo Lopez invite some of their own. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports When the Minnesota Twins look back at their 2024 regular season, one of the only questions they would like to consider regarding Pablo Lopez is whether or not he won the Cy Young. Rocco Baldelli was able to name his Opening Day starter months ago, and he’ll get the ball every fifth day with an eye on domination. Lopez was great in 2023, arguably better than Sonny Gray at times, and should take another step forward this season. How well this Twins group holds up without Gray and Kenta Maeda remains to be seen. How much they can carry the water for a lineup that should be better relies heavily on development being made by both Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The front office, hamstrung by ownership payroll constraints, did not get a bonafide number two starter this offseason. There is hope that Ryan could turn into that, and it would be quite the coup, considering the organization gave up nothing but a cooked Nelson Cruz to net him. Last season, Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA with a nearly identical 4.13 FIP. His expected statistics were much better, with an xERA of 3.53 and an xFIP of 3.76. Those don’t mean much from a results standpoint but suggest that better numbers were possible. For Ryan, a good amount of that focuses on limiting the longball. Having previously surrendered 1.4 HR/9 during his five-game rookie sample, he ballooned that number to 1.8 HR/9 a season ago. Batters got on much more often with a career-worst 8.6 H/9, which left every dinger doing more damage. There is no doubt that Ryan is capable of missing bats. He came up just three strikeouts shy of 200 last season, and he should be expected to best that total this season. Keeping hitters off balance and removing the 41.6% hard-hit percentage would be an excellent place to start. Predominantly a fastball and slider pitcher, Ryan did incorporate a sinker nearly a quarter of the time last season. He pushed his chase rate to a career-best 37.5%, and his whiff rate almost reached 14%. Zone contact didn’t burn him, and there wasn’t a consistent trend of “how” he was doing things wrong. The most problematic was the misses getting demolished. If Ryan can take another step forward mentally and continue to execute from a physical standpoint, the Twins could again have two pitchers in the top 25 starters across the entirety of Major League Baseball. It’s not just Ryan, though, as Ober should also be expected to take a step forward. Having started at Triple-A last season, begrudgingly, he’ll be entrenched in the rotation this time. Ober’s 3.43 ERA last season came in 26 starts, and while he doesn’t get the same level of hype as Ryan, there’s a path for him to produce at the same level or better. Coming off 144 innings at the major league level, being healthy should allow him to surpass that total, given the starts he made for the St. Paul Saints. As Matthew Trueblood wrote this offseason, Ober excels despite a lack of velocity. He is cut of a similar cloth to Zack Greinke, Kyle Hendricks, Maeda, or Merrill Kelly. He does things differently in that the control and command of the zone are largely unmatched by pitchers of this profile across the sport. Utilizing the upper portion of the zone, he attacks hitters where pitches are perceived quicker while avoiding misses middle-middle. This ability comes from the stature that Ober has at his disposal. With a commanding presence on the mound and an extension that gets on hitters, he uses his physical traits and pitching abilities to be a true outlier. There might not be a significant step forward for the 28-year-old, but if he continues to cement this production as a reflection of who he is, then the top half of Baldelli’s rotation will be in a good place. It’s fair to question the depth Minnesota has behind some of their top options, but it’s also worth wondering if the Twins didn’t already have enough at the top that spending for a number two didn’t make sense. View full article

The gameday baseball experience for a fan is as much about what happens on the field as what occurs within the stadium. Souvenirs have long been a part of that story, and Minnesota’s own Pillbox Bat Company has taken a genuinely unreal path to be a part of it. Image courtesy of Ted Schwerzler Nestled on an industrial street just outside downtown Winona, Minnesota, you could miss the office and conjoined warehouse building if you blink. Despite the size that Pillbox Bat Company has grown to, they have remained true to their roots. Still in the facility they once shared with Sanborn Canoe Company, Pillbox now operates the entire structure as their retail store, back office, manufacturing, and distribution center. If you remember the mini bats that you used to see as a kid when patrolling the concourses of a Major League Baseball stadium, then that’s where Pillbox can make a connection point. Dan Watson and Zak Fellman launched the company back in 2015. In 2021, the company got licensing approval from the Major League Baseball Players Association, and in July 2022, it got licensing approval from Major League Baseball itself. Just before the World Series, MLB reached out and had Pillbox create bats for all its teams, and the company was off to the races. On a nondescript February morning, I walked into a welcoming office and was met by Kyle Wright, the Business Development Manager for Pillbox. Kyle and I had exchanged emails for a few weeks, and while the story of Pillbox has been told, the inner workings remained largely uncovered. Set for a tour of the facility, and a greater understanding of what goes on within, Wright was an open book. The main office is home to a small retail space that does a great job of showcasing everything the company has to offer. From bat-specific merchandise to apparel and products waiting for shipment, this area makes a statement. It could be the giant portrait of Babe Ruth staring at you when walking it, but you immediately feel immersed in a baseball mecca. Stepping into what is the first area of production, the differing ways in which Pillbox produces works of art are staggering. After the initial laser engraving machine broke down and could not be serviced, the company added seven new machines to crank out the mini bats seen etched throughout stadiums. Once the bat is inserted, the process is entirely electronic, but it takes an artist to design and set it up. Beyond just the laser engraving arm of design, there is also Pillbox’s famous hand-painted bats. These works of art are truly one-of-a-kind, and each individual bat is hand-painted. What makes it even more impressive is that the painters, or artists as they should formally be known, possess almost no background in painting. Some of the group have an artistic background, but others are entirely self-taught within the walls of Pillbox, and their subjects are exclusively wood bats and pennants. The self-taught premise is something that carries significant weight here, too. While laser engraving is done by a machine, graphic design or CNC machining backgrounds can lend a hand, but that isn’t something everyone possesses. Wright himself came to Pillbox after a career of climbing the managerial chain at a local Domino’s. Looking for something less strenuous from an hourly perspective, he stepped foot into Pillbox as a laborer. It took time to work a lathe and figure out the sanding process, but he is not directly responsible for creating the first step of many works of art the company produces. That comes after he answers the daily marketing and business development emails, of course. While the company does produce bats, and those also used as game bats, they have not yet broken into the major league ranks there. That isn’t exactly the goal, but regardless of whether the product is a decorative offering or used to crack a home run, perfection is the goal. Wright and the sanders meticulously look over each bat constructed and only put those with proper turning, free of defects, and able to pass quality standards on to the next stage. As is the case with all wood bats, once crafted, the raw material is then dipped. With a process that includes multiple coats of sealant or lacquer, the wood is ready for design elements to be added. This can come in the form of paint or a more intricate laser-engraved design. Pillbox has put mini bats and full-size offerings in stadiums and on their website, and customization reigns supreme. The process has become such a well-oiled machine, and it’s one that Pillbox now owns entirely. No longer operating alongside a canoe company or helping to make wooden golf accuracy sticks, bats have taken over and thrived. Despite a population of just under 26,000, Winona houses some massive headquarters. There are plenty of large corporations, from Fastenal and RTP to Watkins and We-No-Nah Canoe. WinCraft remains the largest in the sports world, but Pillbox has begun building an empire squarely on the map. Just a couple of years into their partnership with Major League Baseball, the future for Pillbox remains limitless. The company has seen sizable growth since securing major licensing, and how they tap into creative ventures in the years ahead will be something to keep an eye on. To learn more about Pillbox Bat Company, check out the About Us section on their website here. View full article

Guess who’s back? Back again? Max is back. Tell a friend. Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK This offseason could have zeroed in on two veterans worthy of being traded. With the Minnesota Twins immediately coming out and playing poor, err, suggesting that payroll would drop, the contracts of both Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were in the crosshairs. Ultimately, the front office flipped Polanco for solid value, but Kepler is still here playing out the final year of his contract extension. Last season, Kepler owned a 121 OPS+, his highest total since the 2019 Bomba Squad season when he launched 36 juiced baseballs into the stands. It was a strong year for the German right fielder, but it wasn’t all rainbows and butterflies. Through 46 games, he owned a putrid .625 OPS with a .189 batting average. He was drawing the ire of fans everywhere, and conventional wisdom could have made him a candidate to be DFA’d. Then he figured it out again. From that point forward, a period of 84 games, Kepler slashed .297/.368/.545. He had 17 doubles and 17 home runs while being among the best hitters in Rocco Baldelli’s lineup. Needing to replicate that for the duration of the 2024 season, it’s a relatively straightforward process for the Minnesota right fielder. Through May, Kepler had a launch angle hovering around 12 degrees. He had produced nearly a 50% ground ball rate just a year prior. He has previously suggested that his goal was to drive the ball on the ground through the defense. That has almost always been the culprit whenever he’s been going bad in his career. From the point he turned his season around, Kepler owned nearly a 16-degree launch angle and supplemented that with a solid hard-hit rate. Banning the shift would never fix the problem for a guy like Kepler. Mentally, it could have affected him as to where the defenders were standing, but there were very few hits to be had when putting the baseball on the ground. Major league players are outstanding, and slowing the progress of a batted ball will give them ample opportunity to generate outs. For Kepler, it wasn’t about going the other way or hitting through the shift but instead lifting over it. As Kepler has been able to elevate the baseball and generate harder contact, he has seen that directly correlate to more productive batted balls. His 16.1% HR/FB rate last season was the second-best of his career (behind 2019’s 18%), and he combined that with a career-best hard-hit percentage (47.6%) as well as barrel rate (12.2%). The Twins continuing to implore Kepler to wallop the baseball with a slight upward trajectory is what will have him finding a new payday this offseason. Defensively, Kepler has been among the better right fielder’s in the game for quite some time. That should continue in 2024, and Minnesota will benefit by having Byron Buxton patrolling centerfield on a routine basis. While Matt Wallner is not a defensive stalwart in left field, Manuel Margot can rotate in as a late-game replacement. Baldelli’s outfield configuration will look like a better version of the “Nothing Falls but Raindrops” group. Ultimately, how much value Kepler provides to Minnesota in his 14th year with the organization will result from how much he wants to stick with a known process. As a veteran, the hope would be that he sees value in how his season turned a year ago, and the Twins getting something close to 150 games of that would have him getting MVP votes and All-Star consideration. View full article

Spring training is well underway, and the Minnesota Twins have made their first round of cuts. A handful of prospects remain in big league camp, but a bunch more will be on display during the Spring Breakout game next Saturday. Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Even as the front office gets busy cutting down the spring training group to an eventual 26-man roster, Major League Baseball is unveiling the Spring Breakout games for the first time this year. In what boils down to a prospect showcase, the Twins will host the Tampa Bay Rays on Sat., Mar. 16. Minnesota unveiled the group who will participate today. A host of top prospects are included among the group, highlighted by names like Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, Charlee Soto, and Brandon Winokur. These games will all be played in conjunction with big-league spring training games, and the vibe should be similar: expect everyone to get into the action. Guys like Lee and Emmanuel Rodríguez have experienced big-league spring training action in a handful of contests already this year. They are up playing with the likes of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, but in the Spring Breakout game, those types will be looked at as leaders by prospects such as Jenkins or Marco Raya. Minnesota has plenty to get excited about on the farm, and something like seven or eight of their top players could begin the year at Triple-A St. Paul. More than a few should be expected to debut with the Twins this season, and supplementing the big-league roster with top-tier depth is something that fans coming to Target Field can get excited about. The Spring Breakout game will be available to stream through MLB.tv, and the better news is that blackout restrictions will not apply. The game will also be simulcast on Bally Sports North, with Kris Atteberry and Dan Gladden on the call. Minnesota already announced their starters for the game as well. Jenkins will be in the outfield with the recently acquired Gabriel González and Rodríguez. Yunior Severino, Tanner Schobel, Lee, and Austin Martin will play on the dirt, with Andrew Cossetti behind the plate. Zebby Matthews and Soto are listed as the starting pitchers, and Kala'i Rosario would then be the designated hitter. Who are you most looking forward to see take the field for the Twins in the Spring Breakout game? You can find the Rays roster here. View full article

The Minnesota Twins come into the 2024 season as favorites to repeat as AL Central winners. To convert that expectation to reality, they’ll need multiple players to step up, and it’s time Alex Kirilloff was among them. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Alex Kirilloff was drafted 15th overall in the 2016 MLB Draft. That was the final draft under the Terry Ryan regime, before the longtime GM was fired and (eventually) Derek Falvey was hired in his stead. Kirilloff was a polished hitter from Pennsylvania, and the high school product was expected to hit for both power and average. Injuries made it a long road to the show for Kirilloff, but he debuted in the playoff series against the Astros in 2020. He then played 59 games as a rookie in 2021, before shutting it down with a wrist injury. Now, with multiple surgeries behind him, Kirilloff comes into the 2024 campaign with a clean bill of health. Last year, he had a procedure to drastically address the wrist issue, breaking and shaving down the bone to alleviate discomfort. He posted a .793 OPS in a career-high 88 games. With the wrist issue behind him, it was a shoulder injury that hampered him down the stretch, and it may have been the cause for a Sonny Gray-crushing error in the postseason. The critical error allowed Yordan Álvarez to reach, and the Houston Astros opened up the floodgates against Minnesota. After the Twins stole a game at Minute Maid Park on the road, the entire momentum of the series seemed to shift on that play. After the Twins signed an alternative to him over the winter, Kirilloff now has to prove himself anew both with wood and with leather. Kirilloff is no longer a youngster. He will play 2024 at 26 years old, and while Carlos Santana isn’t a threat to his long-term viability at first base, the veteran is a significant defensive upgrade at the position. It will be on Kirilloff to learn from Santana and incorporate a similar level of defense at the position. Rocco Baldelli probably doesn't want to be forced into rigid use of Kirilloff as an everyday DH, and he's not much of an outfielder, either. While Kirilloff did post a 117 OPS+ last season, it again came in fewer than 100 games. Being healthy is the focal point for Minnesota’s first baseman, but they need production both on defense and at the dish. There is a possibility that Edouard Julien will need to move to first base at some point, and Brooks Lee finding a place to play shuffles the infield as well. Kirilloff's hitting could provide insurance for Matt Wallner in left field, but all of the movement is contingent upon the lefty being healthy and productive. Baldelli has placed Kirilloff in a platoon situation early in his career. Through 192 total games, Kirilloff has slashed just .202/.287/.343 in 157 plate appearances against southpaws. That won’t get the job done, and the .769 OPS against righties isn’t high enough to consider him dangerous on the positive side of a platoon, either. To justify his place as a DH or a limited defender at the game's easiest defensive position, Kirilloff has to be better in both splits. Kirilloff was arbitration-eligible this season for the first time in his career, as a Super Two player. He is under team control through 2027, but to what extent Minnesota can count on him as part of the future could be determined mainly by his production in the season ahead. If the injuries are behind him and he can remain healthy, that would solve half of the problem. From there, Kirilloff showing improvement in the field and consistency at the plate is the other part needing to click. There’s no denying the talent here, and Kirilloff’s swing is among the best things going when it’s right. If a player ever needed a breakout season in the biggest way, it’s this player, and his taking center stage could go a long way to push Minnesota toward their postseason goals in the season ahead. View full article

At this point, it seems the Minnesota Twins Opening Day roster is all but set, and that means Matt Wallner will be the starter in left field. He had a solid rookie season, but the most crucial question is how he responds to adjustments in year two. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports It took some time for the Twins to allow Matt Wallner an actual leash at the highest level. Trevor Larnach started in left field on Opening Day, But Wallner continued to produce with a 927 OPS in 67 Triple-A games and forced his way into the starting lineup, where he posted a 139 OPS+ across 76 games. Now, he will be tasked with substantiating that production. Wallner got his feet wet with an 18-game sample back in 2022. The immense power was impressive, and overall he was above league average in that span. As with many power hitters, the strikeouts are prevalent with Wallner, but he also does a good job at drawing walks. A book has been put together on him, though, and pitchers will have had an offseason to prepare against him. Last year, Wallner owned a 31.5% strikeout rate, which, had he qualified, would have ranked fifth in the majors. Only Brent Rooker, Jack Suwinski, James Outman, and Ryan McMahon ended more at-bats in strikeouts. Each produced positive fWAR totals, so it is a path that can work, but Wallner must continue to draw walks and dictate at-bats. His 11% walk rate was above Rooker and McMahon of that group, but there is room to get better. At the dish, Wallner chased just over 28% of the time, which is respectable. He also whiffed just over 15% of the time, below the 16.7% mark he put up during the 2022 cameo. Unlike Larnach before him, Wallner will see a heavy diet of heat. Whereas the Oregon State product feasted on fastballs and struggled with offspeed, Wallner’s diet has been fastballs up and away. With a nearly 50% pull rate last season, pitchers don’t want to give the slugger a chance to deposit a ball into the overhang at Target Field. Exit velocity and hard hit rate are the name of the game for Minnesota’s left fielder, and he loses some of that prowess when flipping the ball to the opposite field. Of his 14 home runs last season, only three went left of center, and only one was truly to left field. His 18.8% barrel rate and nearly 50% hard-hit rate play best when he can drive the ball on the right side. As pitchers force him to be patient and go the other way or jam him in, it will take adjustments to survive. Defensively, Wallner will also need to work on keeping himself in the lineup. He has a huge arm, but most teams ceased testing it after the Southern Miss product recorded a few early outfield assists. He was worth -2 DRS and -2 OAA in just over 300 innings in left field last season, and while that’s not a significant sample at all, he can’t succumb to needing daily defensive replacements. What Baldelli does for contingency plans remains to be seen. Emmanuel Rodriguez isn’t going to be a consideration early on this year, and Austin Martin is a better fit in center field. Manuel Margot could definitely get run behind Wallner, and he may even be an ideal platoon partner there. Then there’s Larnach, who will likely be ticketed for Triple-A St. Paul to begin the year. He has been given sporadic chances but has never done enough to stay healthy and stick. A strong start at Triple-A could bring the former first-round pick back to the big leagues, but Minnesota likely will give Larnach and Wallner time to settle in at their respective destinations. Wallner's success in his sophomore campaign could propel the Twins to new heights. He went through periods of being a lineup leader last season and then experienced a hitless streak where everything seemed to go wrong. If he can remain somewhere in the middle all year long, everyone involved can benefit from a corner fielder who can man the position for a few years. View full article

I do agree the front office did a great job assembling this roster with the parameters they were given. I don't see any reason to respect the choice ownership made though.

I'm not sure what type of starter you're getting for $16M, but it's probably not a significant needle-mover.

Coming into the 2024 Major League Baseball season, Carlos Correa is the only player with a higher level of scrutiny around their health than Byron Buxton. After playing through a nagging foot just last season, how ready is he, and how long will it last? Rocco Baldelli doesn’t have to worry about who he pencils in at shortstop each day during the 2024 season. Carlos Correa was signed to a $200 million contract to be a roster cornerstone that is out there every day. Despite playing through plantar fasciitis pain last season, he still appeared in 135 games. That isn’t going to suffice for Correa, and the production he displayed was also reflective of a player at significantly less than 100%. When the dust settled, he produced just 1.1 fWAR. That tally was the lowest single-season total of his career and the only time he was worth less than 3.4 fWAR in a full season. Health is the key for Correa, and he has turned a corner. Coming into camp without worrying about the plantar fasciitis problem, he can focus on returning to his usual self. He doesn’t need to tweak his swing to overcome a nagging foot, and the defense may be where he can benefit most. Minnesota needs the infield defense to be a strength this year, and it wasn’t that in 2023. Edouard Julien is now the starter at second base, and he has been a work in progress there, which puts more pressure on Correa, Royce Lewis, and the combination of Carlos Santana and Alex Kirilloff to prop him up. Correa, playing next to Julien, will be the most significant asset, and it stands to reason he can make up for some of the deficiencies now that he is healthy. When dealing with the injury, it wouldn’t have just been a swing or load problem with Correa’s foot. He clearly struggled to plant and pivot defensively, and for someone who doesn’t have much speed, fielding batted balls is about quick twitch movements and angles. The Twins never saw a decline in what can only be described as howitzer-like arm strength. Still, their shortstop having an opportunity to field more baseballs will generate additional outs. Playing good defense is something that could translate to the batter’s box as well. A stronger base will help him to attack opposing hitters, but making last season’s career-worst 94 OPS+ look like a mirage would be great to see. In no previous full season did Correa wind up with less than a 99 OPS+, and his career 129 OPS+ is what Minnesota re-upped, thinking they would get. The former Astros shortstop isn’t an average hitter with a career .272 mark, but his .351 on-base percentage is where the Twins felt the most considerable hurt. With a lineup that struck out in droves, Correa contributing 131 of them while drawing only 59 walks hurt quite a bit. His 18 home runs were also below customary totals, and overcompensation, as well as a troubled body, can hopefully be considered the culprit. The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants reneged on their contract offers to Correa following medicals surrounding concerns regarding his ankle. That hasn’t been part of the puzzle to this point, and Minnesota felt comfortable with where he was in that regard anyway. Plantar fasciitis popped up and proved challenging in and of itself, but that isn’t considered degenerative or career-altering. Baldelli has alternative options behind his starter in the form of Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee, but he doesn’t want to use either, knowing it means missed time for Correa. The Twins shortstop position is arguably in a better place than at any point previously in franchise history. The quicker Correa can remind everyone of that, the better. View full article

From the jump this offseason, the Minnesota Twins came out and all but said they wouldn’t spend money. The clear message: finances were tight, and payroll was going to drop. This put the future of Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez – seemingly luxuries from a functional standpoint – in doubt. But as Opening Day approaches, the veteran leaders are still here. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports For a franchise that chose to slash payroll by $30 million after the most successful season in decades, rostering a pair of bench players for a combined cost of nearly $17 million seems odd. The talk of the offseason largely regarded trades of established regulars such as Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. Obviously, the Mariners helped the former come to fruition, but Kepler remains the expected starter in right field. Why do Kyle Farmer and Christian Vázquez remain on the roster with their gaudy price tags? That answer is much less straightforward than one might imagine. Both have different qualities that make them integral to Rocco Baldelli’s clubhouse. In a world where Nick Gordon was a tradable asset for a major-league return and Tim Anderson got a starting job with the Miami Marlins, there is no doubt that Farmer would have had value. Even at $6 million, he possesses the skill set to be a starting-caliber shortstop at the major league level, and even with offensive limitations, he’s not a complete detriment to a lineup. Someone adding $20 million in total salary for Vazquez would undoubtedly be a non-starter after the season he had in 2023, but there could have been an opportunity to repurpose those funds in a talent swap. Minnesota has Ryan Jeffers behind the dish, and although Jair Camargo may not be completely ready, he is on the 40-man roster. The dedication to their team and craft separates both players, however. As Nick Nelson pointed out earlier this offseason, intangibles are something that this front office and organization emphasized. We have seen clubhouses in Minnesota go awry; players like Josh Donaldson or Lance Lynn can spiral a challenging situation into an even worse one. While creating a culture of guys who genuinely like to play with each other is one thing, figuring out why they gel is another. A glue guy at this stage of his career, Farmer’s leadership is more valuable than what he does on the field. Baldelli is happy to have someone capable of giving Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Edouard Julien a rest, but what he does behind the scenes also helps to warrant the arbitration payday he is receiving. Coaches have lauded Farmer as a guy the 2022 team could have used while trying to hold off the late-season slide, and having someone keep things in perspective from a player's point-of-view is an invaluable trait. When it comes to Vázquez, there’s an internal drive from a player who has experienced the pinnacle of the sport and will continue to push for more. It wasn’t lost on him that there wasn’t an appearance during the 2023 postseason, and with a pair of World Series rings to his credit, that’s not something he has been used to. Taking the offseason to develop bat speed and generate more of the production expected when he signed the three-year deal reflects a guy not being good with riding off into the sunset. The coaching staff still envisions a split between their catchers, and getting a more productive version of Vázquez out of it will help that process. It’s fair to suggest that both players would have struggled to net much of a return – Vázquez being more accurate than Farmer in that regard – but for a team so openly looking to save dollars, it had to be a strong consideration It’s noteworthy that neither of those moves was made because it speaks volumes about the character and vision of both players, stemming from themselves and those around them. To what extent Farmer and Vazquez contribute this year remains to be seen, and neither of them will be expected to do much heavy lifting, but you can bet that both will have an impact far beyond what is seen between the lines on a daily basis. Do you agree with the decision to keep these veteran backups around, even while consuming a sizable percentage of available payroll? How much weight do you give to the qualities Farmer and Vázquez bring to the table? Sound off in the comments. View full article

Regardless of embracing betting, Rose should be in. Nothing is more obnoxious than pretending stats didn’t happen. Bonds, Clemens, etc, all of them. Those things all happened. It’s part of the story.

The Minnesota Twins are set to kick off the 2024 Major League Baseball season as favorites to win the American League Central Division. A repeat would be nice to see, but how do some of the betting lines see them getting there? Image courtesy of William Parmeter All professional sports have now fully embraced the sportsbook culture, and placing lines on almost everything is a given at this point. Online oddsmaker Bovada routinely provides lines for individual players as well as team accolades. Looking at some of the totals handed to the Twins and their roster, evaluating what performances could be coming presents a fun exercise. Here are a few of the more notable numbers available: Joe Ryan Over/Under - 3.85 ERA, 175.5 K, 10.5 W Last season Ryan posted a 4.51 ERA for Minnesota and ZiPS is projecting him to come in with a 4.01 ERA this season. His 4.13 FIP was better than the ultimate number in 2023, and ZiPS has him tabbed for a 3.89 FIP this time around. For Ryan to take a significant step forward, as the Twins are hoping he will, the ball has to stay in the yard. His 1.8 HR/9 was a career-low, but if he can turn some of the big flies into outs, then there’s a chance that Minnesota’s number two starter becomes much more of a force. Ryan finished with 197 strikeouts and 11 wins last year despite going through a couple of tough stretches. Betting on pitcher wins is always a risky gamble, and could be more so this season if the Twins rely on what should be a great bullpen. I think the safest option here is the over on strikeouts. Pablo Lopez Over/Under - 3.35 ERA, 203.5 K, 11.5 W Minnesota enters the season with their ace as a top candidate to win the American League Cy Young award. If that’s going to happen, Lopez will capitalize on the entirety of this trio. His 3.66 ERA last year came with a 3.33 FIP, though ZiPS has him projected for a 3.68 mark in 2024. That number won’t get him into the top five for the end of the season award, and I think expectations are fair that he will be there. Lopez struck out 234 batters during his first season with Minnesota. Generating that number was reflective of a career-high K/9, as well as durability that had him coming up just shy of 200 innings. He should again clear the 200 strikeout bar easily, and winning 12-15 games seems logical as well. The Twins didn’t do Lopez many favors in starts last year, and I actually like the over on his win total the most. Byron Buxton Over/Under - 24.5 HR, 62.5 RBI Projections and expectations for Buxton will always be tied to availability. He’s going to be back in centerfield this year, and that’s something we haven’t seen in a long time. If he can keep his knee healthy while doing so, then the Twins will have an MVP candidate patrolling the outfield. Buxton has long been more power than contact, and got too much Miguel Sano to his game last year as the designated hitter. Working in the field should allow him to keep his mind fresh, and if he plays anything close to 120 games then he’ll blitz by his home run total. Playing through pain last year he put up 17 longballs in 85 games, and he had 28 homers in only 92 games during 2022. I wouldn’t touch the RBI total because that’s reflective of opportunity, but give me the over on homers. Buy in on Buxton’s health this season. Max Kepler Over/Under - 20.5 HR Last season Kepler finally quit trying to pound the ball into the ground and went back to elevating pitches. That resulted in a 121 OPS+ and the best season he has had since 2019. Now in the final year of his Twins deal, he’s playing for his future as well. Look for him to adopt a similar approach and keep the success rolling. With 24 home runs last year, Kepler cleared the over/under tally and did so despite having a ,625 OPS 46 games into his season. If he comes out of the gate with an approach that generated his success, he should be much closer to 30 than 20. I’ll take the over here. Royce Lewis Over/Under - 27.5 HR, 80.5 RBI Similar to Buxton, Lewis is a tale of health. If he’s available he’s going to produce. This spring is the first in years where he hasn’t been rehabbing something, and both of his knee injuries came as something of a fluke. His swing is dialed in, and he was a catalyst for the playoff success Minnesota saw last season. I’d expected Rocco Baldelli to put Lewis somewhere in the heart of the order, and that will give him an opportunity to produce runs with the power bat. As he dials in plate discipline a bit more, the hope would be that he is more able to take walks and force pitchers to come to him. He is a long-shot candidate to lead the sport in home runs, and while I doubt that happens, leading the team should be well within reach. 28 is a big number, so it’s with some hesitation, but I’m taking the over there too. Minnesota Win Totals - 7.5 G Streak, 85.5 W A year ago Minnesota won the division while never having a winning streak more than five games. Two years ago they lost 84 games while owning a winning streak of seven games. Stacking wins is the goal, but it’s really about winning the series. Betting on a streak is a crapshoot at best, and having a team remain consistent is where things shake out positively at the end of the season. It took just 87 wins to grab the division in 2023, and it might not take many more this time around. The Twins should still be the favorite, and are very likely to repeat. I have them pegged for about 90-wins, and that’s enough wiggle room to take the over. They should be better than sitting around .500 until the All-Star Break, and being able to create some distance out of the gate will be the goal. What are your favorite bets or projections for Minnesota this season? What would you put as the Over/Under of how many of the above you'll predict correctly? View full article

I don't think it's out of the question that Prato or Helman debut at some point this year.

The Twins essentially have their lineup and bench spots filled out. Still, there is no doubt they are evaluating all of their talent through the duration of the spring schedule, and an opportunity is likely to present itself at some point during the season. Could one of the non-roster invitees squeak onto the active roster? Image courtesy of © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports As things stand from the outset of spring training, it stands to reason that Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Christian Vazquez have three of the four bench spots locked down for manager Rocco Baldelli. That would mean the Twins have one final opening, and before this week, Trevor Larnach may have been penciled into the role. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t play centerfield or hit right-handed. Minnesota appeared to have a deficiency in both of those qualities. Then earlier this week came the acquisition of Manuel Margot, a right-handed hitting outfielder fully capable of playing center field. However, if an injury opened a door, there are many in camp ready to pounce. It was never likely that the front office would pursue Cody Bellinger, and that became a moot point when CEO Joe Pohlad suggested the franchise was all but done spending. Still, with the team remaining engaged on available players, there's a constant desire to make upgrades. Bringing in Margot after camp started reflects that, and now they'll need everyone healthy in order to go north with a projected roster. If not, is it possible that one of the non-roster guys could squeak in? There are three names to watch that may fit the bill: Niko Goodrum The former Twins prospect has struggled mightily in limited big-league action over the past three years. After a successful two-year stint with the Detroit Tigers during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he posted just a 68 OPS+ over the past three seasons. That includes just a total of 148 major-league games, but Goodrum’s offensive production tanked, and his utility wasn’t enough to keep running him out there. Goodrum is much more infielder than an outfielder, and like Castro, he would be miscast in center. However, he’s a switch hitter and has a career .816 OPS against left-handed pitchers. If he can put together a nice spring and flash some of what worked initially when heading to Detroit, it may be a fun story to come full circle. Michael Helman A former 11th-round pick by Minnesota, Helman may already be on the 40-man roster had he not missed so much time due to injury last year. His .840 OPS at Double-A Wichita in 2022 earned him a promotion, and he smacked 14 homers in his Triple-A debut. Last year was just a 27-game sample, but Helman put up a .902 OPS and crushed six homers. Second base has been Helman’s primary home in the minors, but he has played nearly 160 games in the outfield, with over half of them coming in center field. He wouldn’t be a defensive asset close to what Byron Buxton is, but he wouldn’t be far off from Castro either, and the bat may be better. Minnesota keeping Helman in the organization this offseason despite being Rule 5-eligible was nice to see, and he may make a debut at some point this season. Anthony Prato A year younger than Helman, Prato will play at 26 years old in 2024. Minnesota took him in the seventh round of the 2019 MLB Draft, and he spent 2023 split between Double and Triple-A. Prato posted a .822 OPS in 2022 at Double-A but started there last year. The Saints needed a healthy player, so after 43 games he was promoted despite a .533 OPS. He responded with a ridiculous .990 OPS in more than 70 games for the Saints to end last season. Prato doesn’t have a ton of power, but he has hit double-digit home runs each of the past two seasons. He also draws a ton of walks, and his .390 career on-base percentage is reflective of that. Like Helman, Prato has played primarily at second base and at the hot corner on the dirt. He has played a lot in left field the last couple of seasons. It remains unlikely that any of this trio will crack Minnesota’s opening-day roster. Still, it could be argued that their inclusion at some point would represent strong development from an internal perspective. Each would need an exceptional spring to separate themselves, but it isn’t impossible to believe that could occur either. View full article

Fan interest is more what this momentum was regarding. There was a way to encapsulate the October feelings for March/April, and that didn't happen.

I mean, in some sense I agree. However, ownership immediately poured cold water on the offseason, and then the TV situation will draw ire of streaming fans. Excitement follows baseball being back, but the organization didn't do much to foster it on their own.