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jimmer

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Everything posted by jimmer

  1. jimmer
    because bWAR is a runs allowed driven metric for pitchers, which takes into account many things outside the pitchers control. Anyway, have a good one.
  2. jimmer
    You are right, it is simple. As far as what the majority of baseball fans think about anything, much less FIP, I dont buy that whatever the majority thinks is what is correct. Anyway, we are just talking, not sure why you are getting worked up. I'll move on.
  3. jimmer
    I am exactly opposite. I much prefer the FIP based WAR (which is fWAR) then bWAR cause I dont think we should take into account the defense behind the pitcher.
  4. jimmer
    well, Ervin Santana didnt get 'a bunch' of CY votes. Out of 30 voters, he got three 5th place votes (giving him a whopping. 3 points in CY voting). At least one of the votes was by a Minnesota writer. What happens when you compare him to Liriano's 2010 and Hughes' 2014 when looking at Ks, BB,K/9 ratio, FIP. All thosethings happened too. Those are all results of what the pitcher did (including FIP). FIP gives us a better indicator of what a pitcher did than, say, a runs allowed based model because runs allowed is affected by many things out of the pitchers control. Not only is it a better indictor for future pitcher performance than ERA, its a better teller of how well the pitcher did too. And not just those, how did Santana' babip, which was about 90 points lower than Lirianos '10 and Hughes' '14, play into his numbers? You want to give Ervin credit for the defense he had behind him this year,awesome; however,I like to give credit to pitchers for what they do. Santans fWAR was 2.9, Hughes was 5.9 and Lirianos was 5.7.
  5. jimmer
    it points to the fact that people value things differently. That people look at things differently.
  6. jimmer
    I will never understand the angst over the fact that different sites put different things into their WAR calculations which makes them come up with different numbers.
  7. jimmer
    I use it to put players into categories: MVP types Superstar types All-Star types Good or solid players Role players Scrubs. I wouldn't say a 7.5 WAR player is automatically a better choice for MVP over a 7.1 guy, but I'd feel comfortable with saying a 7.5 WAR guy is better choice for MVP than a 4.8 guy.
  8. jimmer
    Texas signs Fister for 1 year at 4M. Nice signing by Texas. He provided 1.4 WAR in only 90 innings (15 starts, 3 relief appearances).
  9. jimmer
    The value I was referring to was in regards to trade value. If you don't think we should trade him, then that's fine. We just disagree on that.
  10. jimmer
    Ervin's year wasn't spectacular. Our standards are just low. It wasnt even as good as it was in 2016. Yes he finished 7th in CY voting. He got 3 points cause 3 voters gave him a 5th place finish (5th place vote gets one point) At least one of the voters was a Minnesota writer. I imagine one of the other two was the Minnesota writer. And Ervin's year was not arguably better than any Twin starter since Johan left. Phil Hughes had a much, MUCH, better season in 2014 and wasnt helped by having a real low .248 babip like Ervin was. Hughes' babip in 2014 was over .320. Sure, Hughes' season was a major outlier for him and he was never going to repeat it, but it DID happen. And,as someone else mentioned, Lirano in 2010. Both much better than Ervins 2017. I like Ervin and he's a fine low 2, high 3 pitcher. There is value there, but its hard to imagine his decline stopping. I've been recommending trade since trade deadline 2016. His value only drops as he gets older and his years of control at a great price gets shorter.
  11. jimmer
    yeah, admittedly, the wording of it all is what mixed me up. But again, I'm STILL be fine with the adjustment because I think most would agree that if a 1B and a Shortstop (or even a speedy great defensive CF) put up the same numbers, the shortstop/CF should be worth more WAR than the 1B is. I don't know why that is controversial or wrong.
  12. jimmer
    Someone on here wrote if Morris isn't in, Santana shouldn't get in either. I imagine that's why JLease brought Morris into the conversation. One doesn't even have to look at WAR to slam Morris' credentials. Santana's ERA+136, Morris' ERA+ 105. Santana has two CYs (deserving three for sure, arguably four)Morris has zero (deserving zero) Morris never led the league in ERA, ERA+, or K/9 and averaged less than 6 K/9 while averaging more than 3 BB/9.
  13. jimmer
    Not that I've seen, though it may be a matter of wording that I'm misunderstanding. But if it is (and again, if I'm wrong, I get to learn something, which I am all for), I'd STILL be fine with that because I think most would agree that if a 1B and a Shortstop (or even a speedy great defensive CF) put up the same numbers, the shortstop should be worth more WAR than the 1B is. I don't know why that is controversial or wrong. But it isn't cooked into wRC+. So if we want to compare just offensive value regardless of position, one can look at that.
  14. jimmer
    Do you have a reference your assumption of the calculation? The position adjustment is about defensive value, not offense. So if a shortstop and a 1B provided exactly the same offense he will almost assuredly be worth more WAR because of the defensive part of the WAR calculation. I've never seen anything that says WAR values a single differently based on position, so if you have that reference, it'd be great to see.
  15. jimmer
    What's a bit funny is that because the writers completely screwed the pooch during the 2005 CY Young voting, then can say he only won two CYs. I Imagine three might have gotten him in.
  16. jimmer
    all of this and more.
  17. jimmer
    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-war-in-context-a-response-to-bill-james/
  18. jimmer
    Yeah, a little less than 3% of his PAs this year (and his career) And, of course, part of that is that he makes so much contact, so when players are on base in front of him, it can happen. Makes a player like him more susceptible. Probably be better if he struck out more, but the complaints would shift to that instead. BTW, recently, an AL MVP led the league in GiDP.
  19. jimmer
    I've eaten it the proper way too, but for Thanksgiving, it gets changed up
  20. jimmer
    Instead of being thankful for Mauer's contract soon coming off the books, which hasn't hindered us in any way except maybe stopping us from signing two or three more mediocre pitchers (because no way would they have signed one great player in FA with that money), I am thankful for him having a very good season in regards to OBP and especially defense (and I'm sure the rest of the IFs, as well as the pitchers, feel the same way about his defense.)
  21. jimmer
    Well, the ball moves quicker for sure, but all hops are true and predictable. Then there's the fact that an infielder can get the ball over to 1B, even if it's not in the air, by skipping it off the turf.
  22. jimmer
    Lefse all buttered up, with a little turkey and a little gravy roll up in it.
  23. jimmer
    Hallmark Christmas movies. Currently the biggest bane of my existence.
  24. jimmer
    Hotchner, Gideon and Morgan.
  25. jimmer
    Omar Vizquel was an exceptional fielder.
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