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dxpavelka

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Everything posted by dxpavelka

  1. dxpavelka
    So you're not going to bite on the predictions for this year either. Hell, you didn't even copy that part of my post. Low hanging fruit has been used and now---nothing.
  2. dxpavelka
    You're justifying the use of BABIP because it worked last year. I'm simply asking what's going to happen this year with the low hanging fruit already having been used. Are those crickets I'm hearing?
  3. dxpavelka
    Don't need to be a stat geek or BAPIP disciple to predict that a guy who 43 points higher as a rookie than his MILB career average and had an OPS a hundred points higher than his minor league average would most likely suffer some regression. If somebody wants to prove their genius tell me what he's going to do THIS year. I'm going with a .270 average and an OPS just north of .700.
  4. dxpavelka
    Still calling bull****. NOTHING Santana or any other player does in one year has anything to do with what he does in a subsequent year. Those things may have an impact on how a few stat geeks perceive his chances of success but they have absolutely no bearing on his actual success. Had Santana drawn more walks, struck out fewer times or hit more home runs in 2014, his success rate in 2015 would have had nothing to do with his BABIP and everything to do with the fact that he was a better ball player than he was being given credit for. How would you have explained if he HAD done those things in 2014 but not in 2015?
  5. dxpavelka
    At least the rubes will have something to whine about.
  6. dxpavelka
    " The average BABIP is .300 and the best way to look at it is a measurement of luck or unlucky." Good luck with that. Might as well try to predict what his fortune cookie is going to say. Bottom line is that you CAN'T take walks, strikeouts & home runs out of the equation and even if you could, why the hell would you want to. You might as well tell folks that his batting average in at bats that he gets a single in is 1.000.
  7. dxpavelka
    Danny Santana's 2014 batting average was extremely useful--In 2014. We all forget that last year's performance means exactly jack **** this year.
  8. dxpavelka
    Guess we'll never know...... It's still a mostly useless stat...
  9. dxpavelka
    Couldn't agree more--About the BABIP. Seems like one of those numbers that a whole bunch of folks parrot others on and when it goes the way they think it will they talk a whole lot of smack but if it goes the other way all we hear is crickets.
  10. dxpavelka
    Buxton's the best defensive option and, as such, should be the odds on favorite because of 4 little words: Corner outfielder Miguel Sano.
  11. dxpavelka
    He is after All-Star breaks.
  12. dxpavelka
    And neither of those things would ever happen. Right?
  13. dxpavelka
    So let me paraphrase here: Since video game developers don't think Mike Trout's offense would be affected by catching, Miguel Sano's bat won't be Affected by playing a different position? And you present THAT as evidence. A special kind of......
  14. dxpavelka
    I'll take a stab at this one. I was calling my shot for Eddie Rosario for a year and a half before the Twins finally dialed the phone. I continue to believe he is an extremely vital cog in the future of this club and am not totally convinced that future will be in the outfield. A thought that a certain second basemen who seems to be developing a penchant for hot starts and slow finishes might want to take note of.
  15. dxpavelka
    You need to look no farther than our own backyard for a solid example of a guy who never blossomed as a hitter until he settled into a defensive position he felt comfortable with-That being Michael Cuddyer who bounce around defensively and bounced out to the infield a lot before he settled on a single defensive position in 2006. If you want more ask any big league manager, scout or veteran player. You'll get similar feedback. Am I saying it is absolutely going to happen. No. What I am saying is that we need to put this guy in the best frame of mind to be a great hitter. Do we really want to take a chance of having to look back at some point in the future and saying we didn't to that?
  16. dxpavelka
    Maybe the reason you can't name a player whose hitting suffered because his fielding wasn't good was because if both were suffering he didn't last long in the bigs. The impact doesn't have to be that dramatic either. Can be as simple as a delay in his offensive progress. A month, half a season or even a year or more. Can be the difference between 50 home runs and 35 or between 35 home runs and 25. Bottom line is with his offensive potential I want to make him as comfortable as possible. Playing a new position does NOT lend itself to that. No need to take any chances with this guy.
  17. dxpavelka
    I could take fly balls in batting practice. Doesn't make me a big league OF any more than it does Sano. The guy has a chance to be a once in a generation type of talent with the stick in his hands. Why take the chance of screwing with his offensive confidence by moving him from a position where he's played over 90% of his minor league games to a position he's never played before? Move Plouffe to OF and let the perceived increase in versatility help improve his trade value for if / when we decide to move him.
  18. dxpavelka
    No guarantee of success for Kepler, Berrios or any other prospect. Bullpens around the majors a littered with guys who once had the same expectations as Berrios does now. See: May, Trevor. Some of those guys are even in minor league bullpens. See: Meyer, Alex.
  19. dxpavelka
    Hindsight.
  20. dxpavelka
    Polanco won't be "blocked by Dozier" for long if Dozier doesn't learn to hit after recess.
  21. dxpavelka
    Maybe we could throw in Berrios, Buxton & Sano as well. Seems like a lot to give up for a 30 year old catcher & a set up guy whose numbers would most likely suffer going from the NL to the AL.
  22. dxpavelka
    Those chances are also far less than 50/50 that he even gets in.
  23. dxpavelka
    Why rank Lewin Diaz as the # 2 overall prospect and not even mention him in the article?
  24. dxpavelka
    Would love to see how this stacks up against other teams, especially the Cubs & Astros, the two teams the Twins prospects have been most compared to since 2011.
  25. dxpavelka
    ALL of these guys are unknowns. That's why they're on THIS list.
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