Cap'n Piranha
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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha
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Make Colome's numbers look not so bad by comparison?
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And this still might be the best lineup, top to bottom, the Twins have turned out all year.
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Berrios pitched the second game of the season, and it was 6 no-hit innings. Donaldson has been worth .5 WAR in 17 games--That's 3 WAR in 102 games, which is worth $30M on the free agent market, and we paid $23M, so seems reasonable. He has an OPS over .800, a wRC+ of 127, and has accounted for 2.8 UZR in his 329 innings with the Twins. He is absolutely not the problem with this team.
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You're right, there were no good options. That includes Rogers, who due to pitching on Monday, was also not a good option. So maybe Alcala, or Thielbar, or Colome blows the lead just the same, but at least then Rogers is available tonight. As it is, we have now pitched Duffey and Rogers two days in a row, so our good options tonight are...Robles? This bodes ill for our chances in a close game tonight; those chances would be better if Rogers was available, but instead we used him in a situation in which it was predictable he would not be good. The upshot is that we traded tonight's potentially good Rogers appearance for last nights predictably bad Rogers appearance. Seems less than smart.
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I agree in part with this. There's not much you can do when 7-8 guys all regress at the same time, and that is not all on the FO. That being said, for this bullpen to work Colome, Rogers, and Duffey all needed to hold off regression, while at least two out of Stashak/Alcala/Thielbar/Robles stepped up to become legitimate 7th/8th inning guys. That's a lot of wishcasting just to have a good-not-great bullpen, so I think the FO bears some responsibility for making a mostly-downside, little-upside plan for the pen.
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This is pretty much correct, but I would go further as well. If you're going to pull your starter in the 6th or earlier, you can't immediately go to one of your 3 best guys unless it's a must win game. Thielbar/Alcala/Colome et al have to be used in the 6th and 7th, and Rogers/Duffey/Robles can only be used in the 8th or 9th. If you're going to expect your bullpen to pitch 600+ innings in a year, then the price of that is giving 200 to 300 innings to average to bad relievers. The only way around that is to have 7 or 8 good guys, or to carry 2 long guys at all times.
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Then we don't have J.A. Happ, and Dobnak and his 8.16 ERA are in the starting rotation. Does that really make us a better team?
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I'm not saying it isn't worth it to kick the tires on Greene, but a guy who struck out less than 7 per 9 last year, had an xFIP- of 107 (tied for 120th out of 173 relievers last year, not for nothing, but Sergio Romo in 2020 was at 110, ranking 129th), and a SIERA of 4.51 (tied for 131st; Romo was at 3.82, ranking 79th) isn't going to move the needle on this bullpen. After all, if we were told we could add 2020 Sergio Romo to this pen right now, would any of us be excited about that? Add in that Greene will probably need 2-4 weeks minimum to get ramped up to game shape, and I don't think Greene does anything for you that you can't get from someone in St Paul. What will actually make this bullpen work is to have either a bullpen alpha (to handle every 9th inning), allowing Rogers, Duffey, and Robles to handle the 7th and 8th. Failing that, we need 2-3 guys at the Rogers/Duffey/Robles level, and I'm not sure Greene counts as one of those.
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The most frustrating thing about Rogers is Rocco's insistence on using him on back to back days. We have 3+ years of data now that says Rogers is a diminished pitcher when pitching on zero days rest. 2018 Without rest--12.2 IP, 10 k/9, 6.4 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.55 ERA, 4.05 FIP With rest--55.2 IP, 10 k/9, 1.1 bb/9, .3 hr/9, 2.43 ERA, 1.75 FIP 2019 Without rest--15 IP, 12.6 k/9, 4.2 bb/9, 3 hr/9, 7.20 ERA, 6.03 FIP With rest--54 IP, 11.5 k/9, .7 bb/9, .5 hr/9, 1.33 ERA, 1.49 FIP 2020/2021 Without rest--5.1 IP, 8.4 k/9, 0 bb/9, 3.4 hr/9, 5.07 ERA, 6.10 FIP With Rest--26.1 IP, 10.9 k/9, 1.7 bb/9, .7 hr/9, 3.08 ERA, 2.23 FIP The trends are quite clear--with the exception of the 2020/2021 SSS, Rogers' walk rate explodes on no rest. Even in the 2020/2021 SSS, his HR rate explodes on no rest. This is supposed to be an analytical team that believes in the benefits of rest--it baffles me that Rogers can even be considered an option on no rest.
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Jorge Alcala in his career against lefties; 15.2 k/9 (Amazing!) 6.75 bb/9 (Ugh) 2.34 WHIP (Ugh) 1.178 OPS against (Ugh) 8.14 FIP (Ugh)
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Greene averaged better than 9 k's/9 in 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019 (and was at 8.8 in 2016). What we are seeing right now is what happens if your best bullpen options are Rogers and Duffey--it's not good enough. Adding a couple more 7th inning guys isn't the answer. We need 8th and 9th inning guys.
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3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks against Kyle Gibson and the Rangers is hardly the position players "winning". The offense looked good for 4 games recently--that doesn't mean all of the sudden its a good offense.
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Oliver Perez is 39 years old, and Shane Greene struck out fewer than 7 per 9 innings in 2020. I don't think those two are going to all of the sudden make Rogers our third best option.
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I wish Willians had struck out there.
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How'd we do in the 15 before that?
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It's just embarrassing how poorly constructed this bullpen is.
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Because rest is important for everyone except relievers, apparently.
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The problem is that when high level pitchers make not bad pitches, they still get results, because they're good enough to get away with it. Right now, not bad pitches is the best Rogers has, which is not good enough to be consistently high level.
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It's a problem when your lefty "closer" gives up homers to lefties in back to back games.
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Game Recap: Twins 6, Rangers 5
Cap'n Piranha replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For those keeping score, Eddie Rosario is costing the Indians $8M this year. He currently has a .603 OPS on a .267 OBP and .337 SLG, with a 68 wRC+. He makes hard contact less than a third of the time, and is still swinging at 42% of pitches outside of the zone, all while being a negative defensively. I think we made the right decision to go to Kiriloff/Arraez.- 50 replies
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Game Thread Twins vs Rangers 5/3/21 6:40 PM CDT
Cap'n Piranha replied to Dave The Dastardly's topic in Archived Game Threads
Dobnak to AAA, Pineda questionable with a hurt wrist---so who takes those spots? The SP depth is getting shallow, quick. -
Game Thread Twins vs Rangers 5/3/21 6:40 PM CDT
Cap'n Piranha replied to Dave The Dastardly's topic in Archived Game Threads
Model or life-size? -
Kepler, Garlick activated. Jeffers, Rooker optioned.
Cap'n Piranha replied to bighat's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Unless the Twins were going to bust Kiriloff all the way down to AA or further, it's guaranteed he'll play in MN this year! -
Agreed--if there's huge value, that's fine. Harrison's contract is up after this year, as is Wood's (as you mentioned), so they need to get a safety at some point they can try and develop. Pass rush is also a need, especially if Hunter decides he wants a new contract. In my mind though, this team is so close to being a top 3 offense. If you can get a solid guard, and a receiver who is better than Beebe/Johnson, you can create nightmares for opposing defenses with a Jefferson/Thielen/Cook/Smith/WR3 set. With a solid OL, you can pick teams apart; run on them if they go nickel, pass on them if they don't.
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Biggest needs left for this team--a couple more OL, and hopefully a third wide receiver. Defense should only be addressed after those needs are met--Zimmer might have as many as 9 defensive starters next year on non-rookie contracts, 7 of which are for big money/multiple years. If Zimmer can't coach that amount of defensive investment into something average at worst, he should be fired.
