Cap'n Piranha

The All Star break was on July 14, and 12 games were played after that and before the trading deadline. Are you saying Dozier foresaw the lack of action by the FO, and pre-emptively became depressed?

That makes no sense whatsoever. What you're in essence saying is that if TR doesn't make a trade for 10 years, the next trade he makes is much more likely to be a good one, since the risk of not acting is piling up. I would argue that continuing to make moves piles up the risk just the same, as if the move fails, you have to make another move to fix that, and then maybe another move to fix that one. For example, in 2010 Bill Smith took a risk. Because he did, we're starting Kurt Suzuki at catcher this year and next, not Wilson Ramos.

You're right, I forgot about his -2.3 UZR/150--16th in the league. I'll give you baserunning, although it's hard to make an impact on the basepaths when you're sipping Gatorade on the bench. And yes, take away a player's biggest skill, and they become worth less. But Dozier has become a black hole on offense--he's turned into Chris Carter. All-stars and team leaders should have more than one skill propping up their value. Miguel Sano isn't getting good pitches to hit, so he's talking walks.

With that logic, the risk is equal between doing something and doing nothing. Therefore, doing nothing is no more of a risk than doing something. Ask San Diego how taking a risk has turned out for them.

Dozier needs to stop complaining, and realize that he's been a big part of the problem ever since the AS break. Slashing .203/.276/.406 while striking out 34% of the time isn't getting it done. That's the issue with Dozier and his one tool--if he's not getting XBH, he's a replacement level player.

That was the question. Just because you don't like the answer doesn't mean it isn't the answer to your question. When you're trading prospects, the only bad thing that happens is if the prospects you traded end up being studs. Say we traded for Price and Cespedes, and they led us to the wild card game, where we lost. Meanwhile, the prospects I mentioned become stars, and re-launch the TIgers franchise--that's bad. Alternatively, let's say we say no to the deal, and Cespedes turns into Mickey Mantle for the rest of the year, and Price is Cy Young, while in the future, our prospects all flame out, and are out of baseball by 2019. Then standing still was bad.

The Royals also had a historically great bullpen. Spoiler alert--we don't.

For me it's the standard because the playoffs have been expanded. Playing one game and going home does nothing for me. I don't care if we get to hang buntings for a day. I don't care if we get nationally televised for one game. If the Twins can't go into a series and say "we've got a chance to win this", I don't care if we make the playoffs. In 2001 through 2011, I felt the Twins could've won every series they were in. They (almost) never did, but there was never a series (except maybe 2009), where I honestly thought we couldn't win. As for Papelbon, I would have been fine for acquiring him for Taylor Rogers or some AA starter, because he makes you better this year and next year. I would've been fine with getting Tulo for a package of Gibson/Berrios, Polanco, and say Walker. My guess is that the Rockies wanted Sano or Buxton included (I have no proof of this), but if that was the price, pass. That being said, Tulo makes me nervous, as he's on the hook for $20M for the next 5 years, with a full no-trade clause. He hasn't played more than 130 games since 2011, and 150 since 2009. He's seeing more fastballs than ever, but he's making career-low contact when swinging. He's chasing more pitches outside the zone, and swinging through pitches at a career-high rate. This suggests that pitchers aren't as intimidated by him, which is borne out by his elevated k-rate (highest since his rookie year) and decreased bb rate (career low). He's 31 in October, and his declining UZR suggests he may be losing his range in the field. If that's the case, that's a lot of money to pay an injury-prone player who can't play second (Dozier) or third (Sano), leaving him as either a defensive liability at short, or a DH.

In truth? The Rockies/Padres/Phillies seriously competing for the WS in 2017-2021 with Kepler/Berrios/Polanco/Stewart et al prominently involved.

I have to quibble with the pennies on the dollar statement. You can't judge this trade now because the Rockies got Reyes and 3 lottery tickets. Castro started the year as the Blue Jays closer, at the age of 20. That didn't stick, but again, he's 20. Hoffman was the ninth overall pick just last year. Tinoco has a 2.76 FIP in A-ball this year. Additionally, I've never stated that people were advocating to fix every hole. I'm saying, what's the point of fixing any of the holes, as just fixing one won't make us a legitimate contender this year. Let's say we got Tulo--are you cool with playing a one-game playoff started by Phil Hughes? Let's say we got David Price--do you think our dumpster fire bullpen can hold a lead when it counts? Maybe we got a couple relievers to solidify the bullpen--do you trust our rickety lineup to score enough to get us the win? I think we could, but I'm not confident about it. I just don't get this idea that making the wild card game is something to be excited about. Do you think A's fans are fondly remembering their appearance in the wild card game last year? Saying making the wild card game is making the playoffs is like saying making the "First 4" game in Dayton is making the NCAA tournament.

Better? Sure. Good enough to make the playoffs? Maybe, maybe not. To be a legitimate threat to not only make the playoffs, but do something once they got there, the Twins would need another bat, a frontline starter, and at least 2 good relievers. The package of prospects it would have taken to do all that would have been immense--think Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Stewart for sure, and probably at least one of Gibson/May/Sano/Buxton. That's way too much to give up.

Let's also not forget Stuart Turner, who is right in the midst of his traditional second half surge. He slashed .310/.405/.423 in June, and in 27 games since the AS break, he's at .278/.371/.389, with 13 walks to only 16 k's. The word on him was always strong defense, and he actually has his best career rate at throwing out opposing baserunners (24 of 58--41%).

But your point, or rather Judd's point that you agreed with, was that TR is wrong to say he would trade Ramos for Capps again, because it didn't work out, and he needs to learn from that. You're saying that TR should ignore any indicators on whether it would have worked or not, and simply accept that it didn't. I agree that you should never trade a top prospect for a reliever, and I'd be horrified if the Twins traded Kepler for Papelbon, or something like that. But it wouldn't be because one trade didn't work out in our favor 5 years ago. That kind of thinking means that the Twins shouldn't ever sign another player from Japan, because Nishi was such a disaster.

Again, do you have concrete proof that Terry Ryan has been watching Golden Girls re-runs while letting phone calls go to a full voicemail? If not, you can't with any authority say that TR has done nothing, this year or any other. Absence of proof (i.e., results) is not proof of absence. And sure, we've won 6 games against our wild card opponents. But we've also lost 4 against those teams. Furthermore, 2 of those wins against the Jays came in May, when we were on fire and they didn't have Tulo and Price. One was against the Angels when Santana shut them down, but we won't have him in the postseason. The other three were against Baltimore during our most recent hot streak when they were stone-cold (lost 5 of their past 7).

If the process says you should, then you should. As in, if Robinson slashes .300/.400/.500 against lefties, and Sano slashes .200/.225/.250 against lefties, you probably should keep PH'ing Robinson for Sano against lefties, even if he does strike out 10 times in a row.

Here's my two thoughts on this subject; 1--anyone saying TR did nothing at the trade deadline that wasn't embedded with him for the week or so prior to the deadline, needs to stop. How do you know he did nothing? Maybe he was all in on Tulo, but the Rockies insisted on Gibson/Berrios, Sano, and Kepler? We know San Diego did nothing because, reportedly, Preller thought they could still make the playoffs, so there was no chance to make a deal there without giving up too much. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. 2--why are we so interested in the wild card game? Does anyone think this team can win 1 game against Houston/LAA/Toronto/Baltimore? If not, what's the point? Shouldn't the goal be to win the world series, not just play a couple games before being sent home? If so, this team is so far away from realistically winning the WS that they would have needed to give up so much to get there, the future would absolutely have been mortgaged.

Ok, but you can't just judge based purely on results when trying to determine if you should emulate a past action in the future. For example, if Capps had been lights out in 2010, and Ramos had flamed out and turned into a 4A player, would you say the Twins should always trade top 100 catching prospects for "proven" closers? If Shane Robinson pinch-hits for Miguel Sano in the 9th inning, and hits a go-ahead homer, should he always pinch-hit for Sano in the 9th? If the results aren't matching what your process says they should be, then go ahead and evaluate the process.

The Twins coaching staff seems to maniacally adhere to the 100 pitch limit for their own pitchers, while steadfastly refusing to consider other teams might do the same, and have the hitters take a few more pitches.

Oh goody, Blaine Boyer to face Tulo, Donaldson, and Bautista. What could possibly go wrong?

And that may as well be ballgame.

At current rates, Santana will be lucky to complete 6. Looks like we'll need at least 3 innings from our pen to get a win, and May has yet to pitch on back-to-back days...

That was the Twins-iest inning there ever was.

Miguel Sano took 18 walks in his first 100 plate appearances. Danny Santana has taken 24 walks in 693 career plate appearances.

a 4 pitch walk to Ben freakin' Revere? Dammit Ervin.

Who had money on the Twins hitting a dinger before the Jays?