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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    If they're not under contract for next year, they need to be traded, even if you have to cover the entire salary to get back a C- 25 year old in low A. If you don't trade them, you have to pay the salary anyways, so you may as well get back something. If the offer is good enough, I would also trade anyone not under contract for 2023, especially given the non-zero chance of a work stoppage next year (maybe contracts will not apply, maybe they will; I don't know enough to say for sure). What I'm really worried about is that the Twins go 11-4 out of the break, and the front office decides not to trade, only to have things fall apart in August (consecutive series against HOU, CWS, TB, CLE, NYY, BOS, and MIL; once the Twins finish playing STL on 8/1, they don't get another game against a team with a losing record until 8/31).
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    There was no reason the Twins could not have re-signed him in 2019, had they wanted to. You leave out here the possibility that the FO may have been aware that Escobar wasn't interested in signing with the Twins in FA. If so, trading him in a season where you weren't going to make the playoffs, and it also being his last season of control, is a complete no-brainer of a move.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    At the very beginning. It's a very good place to start.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Awful strike call right there.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Quick! Say more bad things about Twins players!
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, let's have the 24 year old with a 119 wRC+ in the majors DH for the Saints. Good idea.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, it wasn't good, but I've certainly seen worse.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    No idea. Probably a good thing the Twins cleaned house 4ish years ago in order to get rid of that issue, huh?
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Designated Hitter.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Ok, I made myself super curious, so I went and looked. On this year's all-star team, 7 of the 22 hitters, and 7 of the 12 pitchers are on at least their second big league team. That's just under 42%.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    I haven't done the math, and don't have the time to do so, but I would guess a healthy percentage of each year's all-star team are players not on their first MLB team.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Yes.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Who should not be confused with Gordon "Mouse" Cleaver
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    This game is only 2.5 innings in, and it's already an hour old...
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    Can anyone explain to me why this game is currently being played?
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Who is Kepler May?!?
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    Certainly not repeating what you said, as what you said was Kepler gets too much of his value from homeruns to be considered a good player. I said that if Kepler stops hitting homers (which seems likely, given the stats I referenced), he goes from being All-Star caliber to simply solid regular, which still has value for the current iteration of the Twins. Perhaps if you'd used more words, you'd have arrived at the same, nuanced, conclusion.
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Fully explaining the thought: 36 homeruns is quite valuable, just not as valuable as it used to be. Put another way--$1M is still a large amount of money, just not quite as large as it was in 1980.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Almost any batter's wRC+ without homers is going to be horrific, as homers carry the most weight in wOBA (which is what wRC+ is based on). If you're saying that Kepler's 2019 wRC+ was anomalous due to a skewed HR ratio, then I would respond that we should instead be looking at his whether his HR rate would be expected to continue. As it turns out, the 18% HR/FB rate Kepler has in 2019 has not recurred, probably due to Kepler's failure to maintain the 40%+ hard hit rate he managed in 2019. As such, I think we can all stop waiting for 5 WAR Kepler to come back, but appreciate that he's still 2-3 WAR Kepler, which is perfectly acceptable for a guy who slots in the bottom half of your order, and is only owed $15Mish over the next 2 years.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I was saying nothing of the kind. I was saying anyone hitting 36 homers in today's game will have a lower OPS+ than someone hitting 36 homers 20+ years ago did. I do think that Kepler had has one big year in 2019, when all the stars aligned for any number of players, and I would be surprised to see him hit 36 again, but that in no way correlates to my point that Kepler's OPS+ was not too low for a guy who hit 36 homers.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    As the league has shifted more towards hitting homeruns, the value of an individual homerun has decreased. As such, hitting 35 homers no longer has the same impact as it once did, and since OPS+ compares a player to the rest of the league, it's not surprising that players hitting a lot of homeruns would not have huge OPS+ numbers, unlike players in the past who hit the same number of homers. Think of it this way--if in 1980 you had 5 TV's in your house, that would be a ton of TV's, and would give you a high "TV+". in 2021, you would still have a "TV+" above 100, but it would not be as dramatic, as most people now have at least 2 or 3 TV's in their house.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    For his career, on AB's that get to a 3-2 count, Sano has 178 bb, 205 k's, and has put the ball in play 150 times, with 64 of those going for hits. So...not quite the hacker you want to make him out to be. In fact, if you look at the entire league since 2016, in PA's that go to 3-2, the league records outs 54.5% of the time (27.7% in play outs, 26.7% k's). Sano records outs 54.6% of the time (16.3% in play outs, 38.3% k's). In other words, Sano is essentially no different than the league at creating outs in 3-2 counts.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    Darvish and Snell are also more expensive than Berrios and Buxton, and Darvish is 34. Each also only has one more year of control than Berrios and Buxton, so a couple of things that are at least offsetting, if not in Berrios/Buxton's favor. If the Padres aren't willing to give up at least 1 Top 100 guy each for Buxton/Berrios, you can just casually mention you need to return a call from SF/LAD.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    If I'm the Padres, I'm a bit worried. I'm 4 games behind the Giants, and I'm looking at our remaining schedules--the Padres have to go up against a .577 opponents winning percentage, whereas the Giants are up against only .488 (the Pads have to win 5 more games against the equivalent of a 93 win team than the Giants do against the equivalent of a 79 win team). The nightmare scenario is facing the Dodgers in a one game playoff in Chavez Ravine (also worth noting, the Dodgers play a schedule with a winning percentage of .601, the equivalent of a 97 win team).
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    Wow, looks like BTV is in love with Abrams. Seems like he's pretty untouchable if the Padres feel this way as well. I wonder if the Twins would rather have Gore + Hassell, or Abrams.
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