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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Agree. If (and it's a big if) Meyer, Burdi, and Chargois can all be meaningful bullpen arms by July/August, TR's gamble of not adding relievers will look pretty damn good.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Please read the whole post, and understand the point I'm making. I never said you're more likely to make the playoffs with a lower payroll. I said a higher payroll does not guarantee a playoff spot. I then definitively proved that. In 6 of 10 seasons since 2006, the majority of playoff teams were not in the top 10 of payroll, and the majority of teams in the top 10 for payroll did not make the playoffs. In 3 of the other 4 years, 50% of the playoff teams were in the top 10 for payroll--in 2 of those years the majority of top 10 payroll teams still didn't make the playoffs, in the other 2, exactly 50% of the top 10 payroll teams made the playoffs. I have never said that I don't think payroll makes it easier to make the playoffs. It does. But it guarantees nothing, and simply going out and spending will not ensure the Twins or any team make the playoffs. The one year out of the past 10 that the Twins were in the top 10 for payroll, they finished with 99 losses and the second worst record in the league. Payroll is not a silver bullet, and pretending otherwise is naive. In the past 10 years, there have been 88 playoff teams, 38 of which were in the top 10 of payroll. If those 33% of teams got 33% of the spots instead, that would be 29 spots, so being in the top 10 of payroll in reality only gets one more spot per year, so let's stop pretending spending obscene amounts of money drastically increases any team's odds of making the playoffs.
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Sure, but I wasn't making a comparison of the Twins to the Tigers. I was making a comparison of payroll, and it's correlation to postseason success; specifically, that there isn't any. Here's the number of teams from the top 10 in payroll that made the playoffs in each of the last 10 years--2009 was the only year where more than half the field was comprised of teams from the top 10 payroll teams. 2015: 4 2014: 5 2013: 4 2012: 3 2011: 3 2010: 3 2009: 5 2008: 4 2007: 4 2006: 3 My only point is to stop treating payroll like some panacea to missing the playoffs, as its more likely you'll miss the playoffs with a top 10 payroll, than make it.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    And for that 175M the Tigers got 74 wins, a last place finish in the Central, and were the second to worst team in the AL. Of the top 10 teams in payroll to start last year, only 4 made the playoffs, where they combined to win 7 games out of 36 played. Stop with the "higher payroll equals more wins" line of reasoning, it's just not the end-all-be-all of win determination it used to be.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    TR can be unfair to me every day of the week and twice on Sundays if I get $12M over 4 years.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    I'm fine with Span in CF if ALL of the below conditions are met; 1) The Twins are adamant about keeping Buxton in AAA to start the year 2) The other options the Twins are considering to start are Robinson or Cuddyer 3) It's a 1 year deal 4) TR promises not to extend Span, barring a complete meltdown by 2 of the Rosario/Hicks/Buxton/Kepler group. I'm intrigued by Johan as a bullpen guy, especially if he agrees to change his name to Earvin, so the dread-locked one can change his name back to Johan. Hilarity ensues.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    I'd much rather we turn Polanco into a 2B, as that's where the greater opportunity is with the Twins right now. In the two seasons he's been allowed to play more than 120 games, Escobar has put up .721 and .754 OPS's. He's entering his age 27 season, and still has multiple years of cheap team control left. Nick Gordon will start at High A, and could be only 2-3 years away from the bigs. Brian Dozier, in the 3 years he's played more than 120 games has put up OPS's of .726, .762, and .751. He'll turn 29 next year, and is about to start getting more expensive. We have no good 2B prospects in the system right now. I would love it if TR challenged the prospects to make the engine go, and traded Dozier and Plouffe this offseason, letting Sano and Polanco start in their places.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    At Low A in his age 19/20 season, Vielmas OPS'd .636. Didi Gregorious (who was 4th amongst all qualified SS this year in WAR, and has a similar below-average offense, good-to-great defense profile) in his age 20 season OPS'd .694 at low A and .561 at high A. Last year, Vielma in his 20/21 season was at high A, and OPS'd .627, whereas Gregorious was at .791 at high A, and .704 in AA. That being said--Gregorious played in the Cali league for high A; both years he was there, ever team OPS'd over .729. Last year in the FSL, no team OPS'd over .700. Both Vielma and Gregorious were in the Midwest League for A ball, except when Didi was there, 10 team OPS'd over .700, and in 2014 when Vielma was there, only 6 did. Vielma is not as good offensively as Didi, but he's certainly not far off, and can clearly be a valuable contributor if he continues to progress.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    I really really like the idea of Meyer out of the bullpen. He's been passed on the SP depth chart by Duffey, Berrios, and May, and Hughes, Santana, and probably Nolasco aren't going anywhere, which doesn't even mention Gibson and Milone. Put him in the 'pen, and hope that by mid-season, Meyer, Jepsen, and Chargois are throwing gas in set-up roles--that's a bullpen that could lock down some games.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    Did you miss the part where he's had two straight years of above .600 OPS, despite being a year or more younger than league average? No one's saying Vielma is a star, but a hoover at short who can avoid being an offensive black hole is a valuable commodity.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Which is why I put in the qualifier to start my conclusion. MiLB stats are useful and informative, and should be used, even if it is with a grain (or two, or three) of salt. Otherwise we might as well call Kohl Stewart and Alex Meyer our top pitching prospects, given that they look better in warm-ups. I'm at work, and don't have the time to look it up, but who was the last MiLB pitcher to put up over 400 innings of sub-3 ERA/sub-1.15 WHIP with over 9 k/9 who wasn't at least a decent major leaguer, all while being under 22?
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's a fun comparison-- Player A--started minor league career at age of 21, 292.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.3 k/9, 3.2 bb/9, .4 HR/9 Player B--started minor league career at age of 18, 440.2 IP, 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 9.5 k/9, 2.5 bb/9, .5 HR/9 Player A is Sonny Gray, player B is Berrios. Obviously there's no guarantee that JO will be better than, or even as good as Gray, the comparable minor league numbers sure indicate there's a damn good chance. Accordingly, I wouldn't trade Berrios for Gray straight up, let along adding Kepler in.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    I can't in good conscience call a guy who spent 44% of the season slashing .210/.280/.359 for a 73 wRC+, the MVP.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I actually found this helpful breakdown on ESPN (I know, I was surprised to find it there too). http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13792891/explaining-al-west-wild-card-tiebreaker-scenarios As it turns out, it would be exactly as you described above, so I was wrong in my earlier post <hangs head in shame>
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I believe the Twins have the tie-breaker over the Astros, so if the Angels went for option 1, they would host the Astros. If LA wins, they then host the Twins. If the Astros win, they then go to Target Field. In #2, the Twins would host against the Astros. If the Twins win, they then host the Angels. If the Astros win, then Houston hosts the Angels.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Bonnes and Gleeman covered this on their podcast last week. IIRC, the Angels hold the tiebreaker over both teams, so they get to choose from the following scenarios; 1--they can play both the Twins and Astros, both at home 2--they can play the winner of the Twins/Astros game, at the winner I personally don't see any scenario in which the Angels would choose option 1, which would mean, since the Twins have the tie-breaker with the Astros, we would host Houston in Game 163, and then the winner would host the Angels in Game 164 (Game 163B?)
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    For the Ramirez HR thing, I have no problem with the Twins sending a message. I wish Nolasco would have put one right on Lindor first pitch of that at bat, and then stared down Ramirez in the dugout. For those saying it shouldn't be a big deal, realize that while this is just a game to us, it's a profession to the players. Imagine if you have a presentation to your boss, and a co-worker called out everything you did wrong, and then e-mailed a video of that to the whole company. Can anyone honestly say they wouldn't be upset?
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Can we have Pelfrey clean out his locker now, or do we have to wait until the end of the season?
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Molitor seems to enjoy taking the hitter who performed the best in the previous game, and sitting them on the bench for the next game.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    To quote Meatsauce, Glen Perkins should take two weeks off and quit.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Man, Eddie Rosario's arm is really bad. Every team that plays the Twins should definitely try to take an extra base every time a ball is hit to Eddie.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Who knew Sylvia Plath was a Twins fan?
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    So in other words, what the Twins would have to do to get to a .500 record in the 2011-2020 decade.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Mike Pelfrey strikes out the side. Save your ticket stubs kids, that's a one-in-a-million occurrence right there.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    True Fact: The Los Angeles Angels translates to The The Angels Angels. Least creative team name ever.
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