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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    With all your talk about not looking at things in a vacuum, you seem to be ignoring the vacuum of payroll. As I mentioned in my response to Chief, the Twins were already at near record payroll BEFORE Happ and Shoemaker, DESPITE large reductions to revenue both last year and this year. If you want a team that's going to allocate $20M-$30M to it's 4th and 5th rotation spots, I suggest you check out Yankees/Dodgers Daily. You are in line for nothing but frustration if the Twins are the team you choose to follow.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    The Twins payroll this year is just under $128M, which means if you cut off the $10M for Happ and Shoemaker, they would be at $118M. That's pretty much right inline with 2019 ($125M) and 2020 ($122M over 162 games). Given the collapse in revenue last year, and the expected reduced revenue this year, I don't think it's fair at all for the Twins to be characterized as cheap. What two starters could the FO have inked that would have been notably superior at the time of signing, without adding $20M or more in payroll?
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    Coming into 2021, neither was viewed as a bad starter, particularly as a 4th and 5th starter for a team with limited payroll capacity.
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Here's your quotation I was responding to--"Flexen's 2021 numbers so far have been dragged down a bit by one disaster start -- but unlike Shoemaker, he's been pretty good in the others." That reads to me like you're saying he only had one not-good start. As I pointed out, he has had several bad starts; in fact, Shoemaker has had 5 starts under a 4 FIP, which is only one less than Flexen. Flexen is undeniably better than Shoemaker, but that in large part is because Shoemaker has ben even more feast or famine than Flexen--5 good starts (although not as good as Flexen's), 1 average start, 1 bad start, 3 horrible starts, and 1 worst-of-all-time start.
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    Mikolas' MLB FIPs in the first 3 years of his career were all superior to Flexen's FIPs in the first 3 years of his MLB career. Quibble about how to define success, but Mikolas was, at least by FIP, a definitively more successful pitcher than Flexen in their first three years. Mikolas was also only one year older than Flexen at their debuts, and himself had barely 100 IP at AA or above when he debuted, so it's not like he had garnered a bunch of extra experience. either
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Flexen was also a 25/26 year old pitching in the equivalent of AA or AAA. He should be expected to do well. Put another way, I'm sure if you busted Randy Dobnak down to Wichita and left him there the whole year, he'd probably win that league's equivalent of the Cy Young. That doesn't all of the sudden make him a great MLB option. Further, if you look at Flexen's numbers game by game, it's not like the one disaster start is his only bad start. By FIP, he had bad starts against Detroit, Oakland, San Diego, Texas, Anaheim, and the Twins (minimum FIP in those 6 is 4.83, with 3 of those starts above 5 FIP). He's given up 4 ER or more in 4 of his 12 starts, and 3 ER in another 2 (and one of those was only a 4 inning start). In reality, Flexen has been feast or famine, with 6 very good starts, one average start, 4 bad starts, and one horrible start. With his low k rate (15.9%, league average is 24%), there is a lot of potential for regression here.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Most players in the bigs aren't there solely because their best is that much better than the guys in the minors' best. It's that the guys in the bigs are much more consistent at being their best. Put another way, if Celestino plays the best he is possibly capable of playing, it's probably not that much worse than the best Buxton is capable of playing; he's maybe 85 to 90 percent as good. However, how often does Celestino have a day where he plays the best he is capable of playing? Once every 5 days? Every 10? And how often does Buxton do it? Every 2 or 3? It's like the old football saying about lesser teams beating better teams--if the lesser teams plays a perfect game, they can beat the better teams (it's also how the Twins took 2 of 6 from NYY/HOU, 2 demonstrably better teams). The St Paul Saints would win 2-3 out of every 10 games against the Twins, because 2-3 times out of 10, the Saints would collectively do a better job of playing to their potential than the Twins. But the Twins win 7-8 times because the Twins collectively more often play to their talent. With more time and seasoning, Celestino will either increase the ratio at which he plays to his potential, or he will find himself first a AAAA outfielder, and then out of baseball.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Or Derek Shelton was.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, if the Twins are truly cooked, and this isn't just a retool, then tonight is exactly what you would want. Cruz, Sano, and especially Donaldson upped their trade value, Shoemaker continues to make it clear you can consider him dead weight and jettison him for an unproven guy, and we get the loss for draft position.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    A tied game is higher leverage than a one run game. Duh.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Shoemaker in to slam hold the door open
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    Because Buxton needs to hit a few more XBH in St Paul before he can come back. Why... I do not know.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    Yes.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    You think the Saints will make the playoffs?
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    I do not understand why Byron Buxton is not up for this game, with Kiriloff on the IL. What exactly does Buxton need more time for in St Paul? I would get it if he was 0-8 with 6 k's, but he has 2 homers and triple. Clearly, he's healthy, else I'm sure we would have heard about it. He's obviously not trying to regain his timing. So why for the love of all that's good and holy is he not manning center field tonight on the West side instead of the East side?
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Jeffers basically just did an interpretive dance of the 2021 Twins season.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    What a play by Colome!
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    Yankees' broadcast; "Colome is coming in, and he's been their closer, but if you never win, you have to get your closer some work". Savage and inaccurate all at once--quite the feat.
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    As what?
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    I hear he's a fan of Saint Dinette, yes.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    According to baseball reference, way.
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    .267/.331/.378/.708 across 253 PA's. 9 2B, 5 3B, 2 HR. 22bb to 37k.
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    He's an MLB manager. I'm sure he makes enough to rent a room in uptown.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Like Eugene O'Neill long? (tip of the cap to Tony Stark)
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    I do! He has a great voice, and I feel like the Yankees broadcast team actually talks a good bit about the opposing team/city. Tonight they've already talked about Buxton, the Saints, how great Target Field is, and St Paul. I like hearing viewpoints from opposing media, and if they're entertaining as well, I like it!
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