Cap'n Piranha

Boy, both pitchers just having mental struggles tonight, giving up all these baserunners.

Austin Martin batting leadoff for Wichita tonight.

Where did I say Colome was a good signing? You said Falvine should have signed Hand, and I gave you all kinds of numbers as to why they shouldn't have, and why signing him would not have done much, if anything, to help this year. Would Hand have been better than Colome? Probably, but that's hardly a high bar to clear. Furthermore, Colome's numbers in 2020 were better than Hand's, outside of k rate, so there was no reason to think the drop off would be this precipitous. Stop making Strawman arguments. I'm not praying they sign Pineda--I'd like them to, as a way to provide stability to the back end of the rotation, but there's myriad other options the Twins could pursue to get a veteran 3rd/4th starter for 2022. Perhaps he will be elsewhere, but given how little interest there apparently was at the deadline, I think this idea that someone is desperate to acquire him and will willingly outbid the market by substantial enough a margin to render any Twins offer unacceptable is specious.

How's that quest for 90 wins going this year? What makes that likely to turn around next year?

1--solidify the pitching staff. Maeda is a decent start, I'd like to have Pineda back, but counting on Ober/Dobnak + prospects to handle the other 3 spots and any injuries to Maeda/Pineda is too much. I personally would go with Gausman, but I'm ok with Stroman or Rodon as well. If Syndergaard is open to a 1 year plus incentives/vesting options contract, then I'm ok with that too. 2--figure out short. Simmons is not an option in my mind. He has negative WAR this year due to the cratering of his offensive game, and a sever erosion of his defensive skills (he actually has a negative UZR/150 this year, driven by making errors, and no longer having the range which would offset that). Is he truly a bad defensive shortstop now? Probably not, but nor do I think he's a particularly good one anymore, and for a guy about to turn 32 who is no longer hitting, I'm just not interested, especially not with all the shortstops that will be available next year, and the possibility that Lewis/Gordon/Martin could MAYBE hold that position down. I'm good with spending 2022 finding out if any of those 3 can play short every day. 3--figure out which young hitters are legitimate. Can you count on Kiriloff/Larnach/Rooker/Jeffers/Martin/Miranda to be your new offensive core? I would bypass bringing Cruz back, and trade Garver, Donaldson, and Polanco/Arraez in order to get the PAs needed to find out. If the right offer comes, trade Garver in the offseason, and then trade JD/JP/LA at the deadline. 4--figure out just how barren the RP corps is. Bring in no RP's this offseason, unless you have a big opinion on an undervalued guy, or you're able to get a great deal on an established guy. Find out if any of Thielbar/Alcala/Stashak/Strotman/Cano/Moran/Hamilton can be legitimate late inning options, or if they're all 5th/6th inning types. If 2-3 show promise, trade Rogers and Duffey at the deadline, and sign established guys in the 2022 offseason. If fewer show promise, trade for more prospects at the deadline next year, and then invest heavily in the 2022 offseason.

I don't need to imagine, I know! Infinite! But I'll also get to experience infinite playoff wins!

What's more valuable to the organization? A guy who puts up 4 WAR in a season where the team loses 90 games? Or a couple of guys who might put up 1-3 WAR each in a season where the team wins 90 games?

1--Falvine doesn't care about if a kid is from MN when they're deciding to sign, nor should they. 2--Hand had a very concerning 2020--he didn't give up a single homerun despite an under 30% GB rate, and his velocity had dropped below 92. His swinging strike rate was down to 10.5% (lowest since 2015, the last year he started games), while his contact rate was up to almost 76% (highest since 2015). 3--Those concerns have amplified in 2021; Hand has been worth only 0.2 WAR across 42 appearances, is striking out less than 9/9, while walking almost 4/9. His GB rate is improved, but still under 40%, and he's now giving up homers again, leading to a 4.3 FIP and a 4.69 xFIP. His velocity has recovered to be back over 93, but that hasn't been enough to help his swinging strike rate (lowest of his career at 7.4%) or his contact rate (above 81%.highest since 2015). And all of this is despite having a .239 BABIP, which is the lowest he's had since 2013, when he only pitched 20.2 innings, which means there's even further regression potential. Falvine were right to not give Hand $10M. As for Pineda, I think the FO believes they can compete in 2022 if things go right, but they don't want to sacrifice competitiveness in 2023/2024 in an attempt to compete in 2022. As such, signing Pineda to eat innings next year, so you're not forced to prematurely promote Duran/Balazovic/Winder/Ryan, but can instead bring them up when they're ready is a good thing. It also raises the floor for 2022, in case things start to go right (Maeda is closer to 2020 Maeda, Rooker becomes a top 5 DH, a fully healthy Kiriloff takes a leap, Martin forces his way into the lineup a la 2019 Arraez, and a couple of other signings work out). As such, while I'm not saying Falvine WILL sign Pineda for 2/$20M, I don't think that's more than double what they would do, as you're implying.

Oh, just lots happening in my life lately, I suppose.

Remember that Javy Baez play from a few weeks ago, the one where he let the first baseman chase him all the way down the line? Like that, except that the first baseman got the ball back, and then chased Baez all around the bases refusing to throw the ball to any other player.

This is the first I've ever thought of it, but I'm shocked more people haven't changed their last name to Vader. A quick google search shows less than 1 in 500,000 people in the world have the last name Vader, with 77% of them living in, of all places, Asia.

Depends on which dialect of spanish he speaks.

Whaddya think Chief, time for an extension?

I imagine quite a few people know. I am not one of them.

Yeah, but you didn't say no team would want him even if the Twins paid his full salary. You said the Twins would have to pay his full salary just to get waiver wire quality back. My point is that, trade while paying his full salary or no trade, the Twins will still be paying his full salary, so why not get a lottery ticket instead of nothing? It's like if you're vacationing in Cabo, and then remember you have tickets to the Twins game that starts in 5 minutes. Sure, you might only be able to get 5 bucks for each of them when you paid $50, but since you're not getting a refund no matter what, why not take the $5?

I don't think you understand how prospect ceilings work. It's called the ceiling precisely because they haven't proven it. If they do prove it, then they've reached their ceiling. If everything works out perfectly, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Ryan, and SWR will all be as good or better than Berrios. It's also a very real possibility that none of them are ever as good as Berrios, but having 5 guys with a Berrios ceiling is preferable to 3 guys with a Berrios ceiling, given that the single most likely outcome is probably that 0-1 of these guys hits the Berrios level. With only 3, the single most likely outcome is that none of them do.

I mean, I agree with you, but I'm also not convinced that the plan should be to compete from Day 1 next year. If the pieces fall in place, great, but I believe the best course forward is to not care about competing in 2022, but attempt to build to competitiveness in 2023, and all-out contention in 2024. As such, I care more about what's best for 2023/2024 Winder far more than 2022 Winder, and bringing him up to the bigs to take starts against a series of really good teams (seriously, look at our August schedule) while he's still trying to adjust to AAA (only 4 starts there), seems like potentially opening the door to some confidence loss.

One of the teams claiming Blankenhorn was, IIRC, the World Series favorite LA Dodgers.

Or Santana, Johan.

Burrows, Colome, Coulombe, Farrell, and Minaya all seem like guys that could be released pretty easily. Also, as Garcia is currently having success at AAA, and has pitched part of 3 seasons in MLB, all before the age of 25, he is massively more likely to succeed than a player in A ball, or any of Brandon Lopez/Sean Miller/Randy Leblanc/CK Irby (the Twins 10th round picks from 2013-2016)

Umm, what salary relief are the Twins getting by keeping him on the roster and paying his full salary?

Yeah, no way the Twins can afford to beat that 2 year, $20M contract Pineda is in line for.

I wouldn't be shocked if the top crop of teams saw him as a guy who's had some injury issues, and wouldn't crack their playoff rotations. Since the playoffs are getting close to being penciled in (there are 10 spots available, and 7 teams have >88% odds to make it, with another two above 74%), the demand for a non-game changer come October may not have been there.

Winder has 14 starts at AA or above--it's not going to hurt him to stay in St Paul for a bit longer (and while it's SSS, there is a noticeable downtick in his performance and peripherals in AAA). Meanwhile, give Jax 4 starts against good teams, see what happens, and then bring Winder up in September if you really want to.