Twodogs

Reminds me of the Victory Sports discussions back in the day!

I sure hope not. I want Larnach and Wallner to get 500 PA's if healthy. If also like to see Miranda get some extended at bats. That would mean spending some time at the DH. Just my hopes, I want to see what these guys can do for a full season.

Which was put in there by Derek Falvey. 😂

It doesn't really matter to me one way or another. Personally I wouldn't have brought in Harrison Bader or Ty France. Ty France has seemed to do well this spring, so hopefully he can keep producing. But back to Dobnak, I mean he has pitched at the MLB level a few times albeit mixed results. However, he seemed to pitch very well at the minor league level last season! So he has shown some upside at times. He's obviously a good clubhouse guy or they wouldn't be bringing him along and he can perform many different roles. With the question of don't you think you would have seen it by now, well last year in the minors he looked sharp. But I start to think of guys like Ronel Blanco for Houston. I mean he's already 31, he spent many many years in the minors and then last year he had a good season. So I mean it can happen whenever. Also I think of Frank Viola, yes he finally got good at much younger age, probably like 25, but his first 2 seasons he went 11 - 25 with about a 5.40 era in an era where guys weren't hitting 40 - 50 Hrs per year. In fact one season he led the league in earned runs. If Viola had come up in today's game with those numbers he would have been cut and he'd be playing for the Pecos League or for the FM Redhawks. So give him a chance to be a mop up guy, he may surprise, he probably won't, but he isn't going to hurt the squad and the young guys need every day innings so they probably are better off in the minors rather than sitting on a bench in the majors right now. JMO

But his quad and hammy injuries have occurred from running the bases? So I'm not sure how standing around 1st vs standing around 3rd during a game really makes that big of a difference? I mean when 1st basemen hold runners on they have to explode off of the base to get into fielding position every pitch. At 3rd he just has to prep step on every pitch? I mean they are both corner infield positions, not a huge difference in wear and tear. Not the same a moving Mauer from behind the plate to 1st to save on wear and tear. I mean maybe he should just go and DH if we are trying to save on wear and tear?

I'm watching them on NESN right now?

Well at least with DirecTV the team they are playing will be broadcasting it.

I think the idea to free up money is a good one, but the Twins would likely not do anything with it. You know you have a real good defensive catcher in Vazquez, you don't really know what you have in the two young guys. So at this point I'd keep Vazquez for sure. If the Twins were going to use the savings to make the team better I'd have a different opinion for sure. But those of us hanging around in Twins land kinda already know that they wouldn't do anything with that money.

Well except that Polanco hasn't done a whole lot either? Hopefully he has a bounce back season this year for Seattle. Just not against the Twins.

Great point context is key. That's why I was just saying that a lineup needs to be balanced. A couple of high K guys are ok if they are coming up to bat with guys on base, so when they do hit that one bomb here and there it's doing some damage. https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/2024 I pulled up the K totals of teams and Seattle and Colorado led the league in K's. Followed by I think Boston, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. Not exactly your high powered offenses. The Dodgers and the Yankees finished 19th and 20th overall in K's, so in the bottom half of the league, or in the category of closer to the least amount of K's rather than the most K's. K's aren't good for everyone, but maybe they don't hurt as bad if only a couple of guys rack a few of them up.

Line drives have a negative correlation to K rate. Trying to hit it out of the park has a positive correlation to K rate. You kind of proved me right with the runs scored per line drive. Line drives turn into home runs. But most line drives turn into base hits and doubles. When hitters are trying to hit home runs they tend to hit fly balls. A lot of fly balls leave the park, but a lot of those swings turn into K's also. How many line drives did Tony Gwynn hit? The idea is that you can stay back a little let the ball travel and hit a line drive. AKA Joe Mauer. You can't really stay back trying to hit a bomb, you kinda need to catch that out front which gives you less time to see spin etc.... I can name line drive hitters all day long that don't produce hardly any K's. The argument wasn't that line drives were bad it was that K's are bad. And I said some K's are ok, just can't have a whole lineup of them.

I hope this argument continues all the way into July when they induct Ichiro Suzuki into the Hall of Fame. I think balance is the most important. I feel like the straight analytics guys believe there is only one true great player. That said player has to fit certain criteria to be a great player. I believe the best baseball team are made up of players that provide balance. Yeah you need an occasional strike out prone hitter or two in a lineup to provide that extra pop. But you also need a couple of those guys that hit those occasional ground balls and cause havoc on the basepaths. If you have a one robot type player a pitching staff can figure out how to get that one guy out and they will get everyone out up and down the lineup. But if you mix in a Tony Gwynn here or there then the pitching strategies change when there are guys on base. Not too many pitchers realistically care about a solo shot. Three of those over 7 innings mixed in with a ton of strikeouts usually results in a win for the pitcher. Now mix in a couple of guys that don't K and now one of those bombs is a 3 run shot and you've got a win. I think what is being missed here is that there is a need in every lineup for all of the different types of hitters. Reggie Jackson K'd more than anyone, but he wouldn't have been as successful if everyone in his lineups K'd just as much as he did. He wouldn't have gotten as many at bats, nor would he have had as many RBI's as the bases would have been more empty with all of the K'd. So in my opinion there is a place for all of those types of hitters to make a lineup less predictable and more successful in all situations, not just some situations. Now on to the next argument, all bunts are bad. Wait a minute, I think Rod Carew is calling?

I totally agree that a .717 OPS says he should be a bench player. But the Twins brought in Bader with a .657 OPS and Ty France and his .670 OPS that kinda puts Willi in front of those guys. However, I've seen a lot of predicted lineups having Willi as the lead off hitter and I think that is ridiculous. Because of that .717 OPS. That's kind of why I'd have him as my 7th hitter. But I don't get to make any decisions. So it is what it is. I hope if Bader and France play a bunch this year that they both have an OPS north of .800, but I haven't seen it over that last couple of seasons? So we shall see. Hopefully they can use some smoke and mirrors and win the division.

Well like I said though that this is what I hope plays out. I mean Castro kind of plays everywhere. He plays some SS, some 2B, some OF, some 3B, I mean he plays all over. I didnt have an all over position listed, so he needs to be in the lineup as the team is currently constructed so I slid him into the DH position. I know Buxton will play a lot of DH, but you and I both hope he plays more CF than Castro does. Lewis is going to slot into the DH position quite frequently also, so as to limit injury but again I sure hope he plays more 3B than Castro does. Castro had to be in my lineup. But those are the guys who I'd like to see play the most innings at those positions that I listed.

This is what I'm hoping for, I know it probably will play out a lot differently, but it's what I hope for. CF Buxton, SS Correa, 3B Lewis, RF Wallner, 1B Miranda, LF Larnach, DH Castro, C Jeffers, 2B Lee, Bench France, Bader, Julien, Vasquez. That would be what I'd hope to start with before the injury bug hits. I really hope Larnach and Wallner get 500 plate appearances this year both. I want them to see some left handed pitching. I'm cool with Bader being a defensive replacement, and occasionally playing left when one of Wallner or Larnach needs a day off. I just have a bad feeling that Bader is going to get 400 AB's at a .650 OPS clip again. If he got 200 to 250 but got to use his glove quite frequently I'd be a lot more excited. France I'm not sure, I guess it depends on how he does. But again I'd rather have Miranda on a full time basis than what France has done the last year or two?

IDK, I mean Byron has had a. OPS .827 or higher in 5 of the last 6 seasons. I mean almost every season he is over .800 OPS and it's more like .850 OPS. So I mean with those numbers, he may miss the occasional curve ball but he's obviously hitting at a high clip to be well over .800 OPS in 5 of the last 6 seasons? I mean those kinds of numbers would have him hitting at the top of my lineup. I'd have Byron, Correa and Royce all hitting in the top 3 somewhere followed by Wallner at number 4. I get Byron has been disappointing, but the disappointment I feel is more due to injury. He hits pretty well when he gets regular at bats. He's one of the highest paid and one of the best players on the team. I think it would be stupid to hit him like 7th or something. JMO

I'd probably put SWR into the #4 spot in the rotation??

A lot of guys tend to have better seasons once they leave the Twins?

Yeah this one is confusing. I mean Bader could make 8 mill with a buyout on top of it? Bader hasn't had an On Base Percentage above .300 since 2021??? I mean but Kepler a home grown product was way way way too expensive at 10 mil? I get it Kep is a lefty and is probably super stoked to be in Philly, (probably thinks thank God), but by no means is Bader a good replacement for him and at close to the same amount of money? I mean I was looking forward to a couple of the young guys getting the platoon AB's. That way the main guys would get most of the work this season. With Rocco, Bader will probably play almost like a starter 4 - 5 days every week. What a waste.

Oh, ok that is sort of making some sense, now my next question is, with the time value of money will it still equal 46 or at least close to it in years 10 through 20 when they are still paying him the 68 million per season? I wonder how will that work? Only being counted at 46 million per season would only be 460,000 million, so on the back half I wonder if they will then be responsible for the 240,000 million left over??

So I'm not 100% familiar with how Ohtani's 70 million per season affects their seasonal payroll, because I am assuming that the Luxury tax that they owe at the end of the season to the other teams is based on the seasonal payroll? So if they are paying him 2 mill and have deferred 68 million per season. They are being affected at a rate of 46 million on their seasonal payroll? When do the Dodgers have to put the other 24 million on the payroll? When do they get taxed on the other 24 million? And, now I really don't get why they deferred 68 million dollars if 46 million of it is counted against the payroll? It really doesn't make sense to me as to why they would defer it, since they can obviously afford it? I thought if they deferred a bunch of money that it wouldn't count against them until they actually paid it? Sorry about the questions, but now to me the water is a lot more murkey if they have to show the deferred money on the current payroll?

I thought when they deferred the payments that it didn't count against the salary luxury tax thresholds? I mean why defer 68 of the 70 million for 10 years? So the million dollars that the Mets owe Bobby Bonilla every year because they deferred it back in the day doesn't count against their salary threshold?? I thought they got to push that into the future?

Oh for sure, Ohtani will get paid, but what I meant is that I think the Dodgers will try to find a way to not have any of his future deferred payments count against the future salary cap/luxury tax system that potentially gets put in place. I think they are hoping that they can get MLB to help them work around that.

I mean the owners aren't going broke? I mean the entertainment dollar is obviously there? Tom Cruise made 100 million for Top Gun 2 and that's all pretend? I mean who deserves more money someone who pretends or someone who has to work his butt off to make it? I mean yeah compared to me they all make too much money. But maybe I should have worked harder? I guess have you stopped watching TV or streaming movies because the actors get paid so much? Have you stopped listening to music because the artists make so much? I mean watching the local baseball team has roots in the good ole days, but the good ole days are gone, this is what stuff costs now and I don't blame anyone for not wanting to spend to watch it. But I just see some hypocrisy, not necessarily from you because maybe you don't watch movies or listen to music for the same reasons. But the reasons that many people bring up as to why they won't watch another baseball game happens exactly the same way in other industries and many of them don't have a problem with Adam Sandler making 73 million per year for again pretend stuff. So my point is if the money is there, why should the owners get all of it and not the guys busting their butts? On another note, I feel like the Dodgers are trying to force critical mass with all of their deferred contracts. I feel like they are trying to force a strike, so when salary caps happen they are going to try and say, hey we signed these deals before the salary cap so we can't be held responsible for these old contracts so now we need a reset. But in the meantime, they are going to try to win every world series until that strike happens. You watch, the 68 million per season they are going to owe Shohei when he's not even playing anymore is going to get wiped out as part of the new collective bargaining agreement. Just my prediction.

Hopefully, if it were to happen the way you are showing, I'd like them to convince them to take Julien instead of Castro, probably more risk but also more upside if he figures it out. Only because Castro is kind of the Twins Swiss Army knife this year and last year. Julien might have more upside in the long term, but Castro is just needed more for this year's team!