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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Not a dig on this writeup specifically, but reading the Honeycutt profile made me think of how often the term "potential 5-tool player" gets thrown around for guys with 4 great tools but realistically a well below average hit tool. Probably there are a couple examples of guys that made big improvements to their hit tools during development, but probably much more often it's more a matter of can he hit enough to let the other tools play. I'm kind of split on whether I'd like Honeycutt at 21. It seems like it would be a pretty good value for him to fall that far, but it still seems like a fairly risky profile at 21. I'd hope that there are a few names that are a little more exciting to me still available. I like Caldwell at 21. I've seen Waldschmidt getting top 20 buzz lately but I don't quite see it personally. I'd like it if he were to make it to the comp A pick. One other name, I thought Dylan Dreiling looked really good from what I saw in the CWS. Obviously he performed well but the quality of at bats just looked a step above a lot of the other guys, including many of the top prospects. Comp A round would maybe still be a little aggressive for pretty much a bat only prospect, but I think it's the kind of bat that could look like a steal in the second round, particularly paired with some high upside HS picks early.
  2. 2wins87
    Farmer is not a good base stealer. Do not understand how he gets the green light even a little bit. 5+ attempts in each of the last 4 years, and his most successful season was 4 for 7 in 2022, which is still a pretty big net negavive. He is just not fast enough even when he catches them off guard. Just don't try it Kyle
  3. 2wins87
    Did you want Baldelli to go to Thielbar in a tie game? Gotta be clear that the bullpen's woes are 90% on the front office. The decision to spot start Varland to rest the starters made sense, but given it was all planned out in advance, the fact that the FO really wanted Jackson back on the roster afterwards is strange. Combined with Thielbar's struggles, the last two spots in the bullpen have been basically unusable for the last week. Okert is also hard to use because he ends up facing a bunch of righties, and while his ERA looks fine has he actually looked like a playoff caliber reliever at any point this season? Honestly the revolving door of AAA arms at the back of the bullpen that has happened in past seasons would probably be better. At least make it harder for teams to scout and gameplan.
  4. 2wins87
    Did you want Baldelli to go to Thielbar in a tie game? Gotta be clear that the bullpen's woes are 90% on the front office. The decision to spot start Varland to rest the starters made sense, but given it was all planned out in advance, the fact that the FO really wanted Jackson back on the roster afterwards is strange. Combined with Thielbar's struggles, the last two spots in the bullpen have been basically unusable for the last week. Okert is also hard to use because he ends up facing a bunch of righties, and while his ERA looks fine has he actually looked like a playoff caliber reliever at any point this season? Honestly the revolving door of AAA arms at the back of the bullpen that has happened in past seasons would probably be better. At least make it harder for teams to scout and gameplan.
  5. 2wins87
    Not a lot of batted ball data yet, but his exit velocities have been pretty average for low-A. He has maxed out at 104 so far, which is decent, but there is a lot of medium and weak contact mixed in. Same thing was true when he was in low-A last year too. I saw a tweet on his in-zone contact rate a few days ago, which was 100%. That's definitely good. So the zone judgement is very good and the contact is elite, but the batted ball data is pretty mediocre, which is a little surprising given his draft profile. Seems like he might have a sort of similar problem to Jose Miranda where his contact rate is sort of paradoxically too high, and he needs to more selectively hunt for pitches on which he can do damage, rather than just being able to make contact. Probably still too small of a sample, he could be just missing the barrel and about to break out. But personally I think he has some adjusting to do, and I don't think he's going to fly through the minors like many hoped. Not really adjusting my view of his ceiling yet, but I am adjusting my view of his timeline.
  6. 2wins87
    I really like Forcucci besides the durability issue, which is very significant in his case. I don't remember if there was previous injury history as well? Regardless, he wasn't a full time starter prior to this year so hasn't pitched more that 53 innings in a season. Definitely questions on how he'll manage a starters workload. I'd still love him as a third round pick if he falls that far due to injury. Wouldn't hate him as a second round or comp B pick either. I would think that the Twins and a few other clubs must really like his fastball. Prager was really impressive in his CWS start. Not sure how much extra weight to put on that, but he's got my interest piqued.
  7. 2wins87
    Google "Pat Venditte rule". There's some fun history there worth reading a bit.
  8. 2wins87
    The weakness of this draft might be more a lack of SS prospects at all levels than just the weakness of the HS class. The thinness of the HS hitter class contributes since a lot of HS hitters are drafted as SS, but the college class also doesn't seem to have a single guy that projects to hit at a high level and stick at SS. Focusing on getting a SS in a class like this is how you end up with Levi Michael types in the first round. The CF class is a little more promising, and of course there are always pitchers, though they are by definition risky. There will likely be some options there at 21. But given the makeup of this draft class, the projected position should not be much of a deterrent against taking someone that can really hit. The guys that can really hit and play a premium position just aren't there like they normally are. I think Wetherholt will be drafted as a SS and whoever drafts him will try to keep him there as long as possible. From what I've seen he's flashed a bit of potential at SS and in this draft that might be all a team is looking for. For the Twins, I would not be at all upset about Christian Moore being the pick at 21. He's getting a lot of top 20 buzz recently so he may not even make it that far.
  9. 2wins87
    Missing the first FCL game. Adrian Bohorquez pitched another 4 scoreless innings, no walks, 3 Ks. His strike throwing really improved drastically from last year. Now has a 30% K rate with just a 4.3% BB rate. Apparently touched 97 earlier this year. I think he's a top 30 prospect for me now. Yasser Mercedes and Bryan Acuna continue to be very good their second time through the FCL. Both should get some exposure to low-A when the FCL wraps up, if not sooner. Dameury Pena hasn't played in a while so probably dealing with an injury though there's nothing on the transaction log. Hopefully nothing too serious.
  10. 2wins87
    I see your point, but I generally enjoy hearing Tim Grubb's call. He had to rush through that one as Keaschall homered on the first pitch while he was still finishing up introducing the lineup. I think Grubb is among the more entertaining minor league announcers though.
  11. 2wins87
    How about that sprint speed on Buxton's infield single? I think I saw or heard 31.5 ft/s, might have been on the broadcast. TBH, after he went on the IL with knee pain earlier this year I thought it was going to keep being a recurring issue. He's playing quite a bit now and there are no signs of knee pain. Maybe he just needed more time from the surgery, but he seems to be getting stronger. Really fun to finally see this version of Buxton again.
  12. 2wins87
    Margot has actually looked very good at the plate recently. He's lining the ball all over the place including a few deep into the gaps. .832 OPS over the last 28 days, .944 over the last 14. I agree his defense has not lived up to what I would have expected, but Martin has also not been great in the outfield. His jumps were really bad when he was up with the Twins. He needs some more experience reading the ball off the bat. I was pretty ready to cut bait on Margot a month ago, and maybe he turns back into a pumpkin, but I honestly think Martin would be a big downgrade right now.
  13. 2wins87
    I like this potential draft quite a bit for the Twins. I think there are going to be some tempting college bats available, but if the high school guys that they really like are still available I always like grabbing them early. Caldwell is easily my top HS position player outside of Rainer and Griffin. I do dream of a Corbin Carroll type with him, but even with more limited power you have to like the rest of the tools. I don't really know much about the HS pitchers, but based on the Twins developmental strengths, I tend to like the idea of pitchers with really good secondary characteristics on their fastballs moreso than present velocity, and a big frame is always nice too. Oakie does seem to fit that description quite well so I like it. I do think they can find some college hitters a little later in this draft. The guy that's interested me most recently that still feels like he's ranked way too low on most boards is Gage Miller. I always like a guy that's been rapidly improving/moving up in competition levels. I get some slight Julien-esque vibes from him too, though the plate approach might be fairly different. Feels like a guy that could be worthy of a second round/comp B pick particularly if they are thinking about signability with HS guys early.
  14. 2wins87
    For me Harry is in the 35-50 range. He had a slow start but has been better lately. He's definitely got a path as a smaller, high-contact, low-power utility type. He's actually gotten to more power than I would have expected this year, but I'm guessing that there were some swing changes that also sacrificed a bit of contact. Not that his 19% K rate isn't still good, but it was just 6% last year. I doubt he would have maintained such a low K-rate as he faced tougher competition anyway. If he can put together contact with at least gap and occasional HR power it's certainly the best case. I kind of liked the floor better as the all-contact, zero-power guy last year, but he might not have the speed to really pull that off in the majors anyway. I'm not sure if his defense at short is good enough to project as a super-utility or the kind of utility that doesn't play short. I'd be interested to hear scouting on that.
  15. 2wins87
    Nice to see Langenberg moving up. He's gotta be the breakout pitching prospect from last year's draft at this point. Really came on strong over the last month. His low 3/4 arm slot looks like it adds some deception. His fastball is probably still average-ish in terms of velocity (~92 avg) and whiffs, but he has run it up to 96 so there could be more to come. Seems like he mixes in a pretty deep repertoire with a cutter, slider, changeup, and sinker all thrown regularly as well. Seems like the slider can be a dominant pitch when it's on. He's flirting with top 30 prospect status for me now. I'm also curious how they fill the rotation spot. They've often shuffled guys from relief to the rotation in low-A. I think Nolan Santos would be my candidate as someone who's pitched well in relief, often going multiple innings. I'd like to see if he can do it going a little longer as a starter.
  16. 2wins87
    I honestly would have been fine with Minneapolis specific theme though I've never actually lived in Minneapolis itself. They have been located in Minneapolis for over 40 years now. I'm not sensitive about that kind of stuff though some small part of the fan base probably is and the team has obviously tried very hard to stay away from any Minneapolis-specific branding out of deference to that part of the fan base. I think they could have had fun with it if they went that route though. While I find the ideas in the uniforms pretty cliched, I don't really dislike how they look. The ripple effect is a good idea and might look really cool when in action. I think they are kind of in the mid-range for how they look among other city connects, but certainly not cool enough to justify that kind of price tag.
  17. 2wins87
    I could see an abstract loon when I first looked at it, but with the head and (black) pointy beak at the top. Though that would put the star at... If I try to imagine the star as a beak the best I can see is a weird looking duck.
  18. 2wins87
    Wait, the star on the loon is supposed to be it's beak? But the wings... and... did they at least look at pictures of loons?
  19. 2wins87
    I guess the First Ave/Atmosphere tease was just a teaser to their intro video, not the Jersey itself. I have mixed feelings, but mostly negative. I'm sort of glad we didn't get another black/gray city connect. Nike seemed to really love making everything black. But I don't know if these colors are really an improvement That said, I think a First Ave/Music theme could have been cool, even if that would have meant primarily black and silver. I think these suffer from a general unwillingness from the team to ever get more local than the Twin Cities with branding, and a general desire to as broad geographically as possible. I get it from a marketing perspective but they ended up with the most basic and obvious concept. Minnesota=10,000 Lakes. Anyone outside of Minnesota that knows one fact about the state knows that one. I assume they got design input from locals, but they certainly didn't need it at all to come up with this design. I think if they would have been willing to risk alienating a few people for something Minneapolis-specific they could have come up with a more interesting design. Is Tampa Bay known for skateboarding culture? I don't know, but people from there seem to think so and they ended up with an interesting and unique design. We ended up with a real boilerplate design that will have zero lasting power.
  20. 2wins87
    The overall look is better than I would have projected just from the sock, but I'm still a little underwhelmed. I might get the hat
  21. 2wins87
    Here's a bit of statcast data from 3 of 4 appearances in low-A (Daytona doesn't have statcast). Fastball touched 97.4, averaging right around 95. It's been an ok pitch for him with a 23% whiff rate which is fairly average for a 4-seam. Last year he averaged 93 and maxed out at 96 with the fastball, so there's definitely been some velocity gains there. His main breaking ball has mostly been classified as a cutter (there were a few sliders that might be the same pitch). It's been super effective so far with a whiff rate around 50%. Throws it in the mid to upper 80s. Hasn't thrown his curve or changeup too often, the changeup will probably be a big developmental focus for him to have a shot at starting. The fastball/cutter combo would seemingly play well out of the bullpen if that doesn't work out.
  22. 2wins87
    The unfair comp is probably more Corbin Carroll than Ben Revere if you are really high on Caldwell. As I said, unfair, but more broadly I think you just have to evaluate the tools as they are with smaller guys and can't just knock them for being smaller. I suppose it is harder to project a higher future grade for power with a smaller guy, but at the same time I'd argue that the same might be true when projecting forward the hit tool on a bigger guy with long levers. Guys like Carroll and Altuve prove that there are ways for smaller guys to get to plenty of power. I'm no scout but the tools sound very good with Caldwell, so I agree that he'd be worthy of a top 20 pick.
  23. 2wins87
    To be honest I would be pretty disappointed with this draft for the Twins. I liked Jordan early on, but his already iffy K rate got even worse as the season wore on and his overall production faded a bit from his hot start. The power definitely translates (which is more of a question for other guys in college baseball's current homer-bloated environment), but 29% K against college pitching is a huuuge red flag and I have him more as a comp A pick now. Among the college guys, I'd rather go for a more well rounded bat like Christian Moore or maybe even Amick, or a more premium position with one of the catchers Malcolm Moore or Janek. That's not to mention a few of the HS hitters, or pitchers Brecht or Mayfield. Culpepper seems in range for the comp A pick. The bat looks good if he sticks at short, but that is pretty doubtful, in which case you're hoping for significantly above average defense at 3B with hopefully an average-ish bat. Just kind of an in-between profile for me, though I don't dislike the pick in a vacuum. The guy still on the board at that point that I'd be most excited about would be Sanford. I also think Jacob Cozart is underrated and would be fine with him as a comp A pick. Overall, I'd like to see a little more upside with at least one of the first two picks.
  24. 2wins87
    Yes https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/twins-luke-keaschall-limited-to-dh/
  25. 2wins87
    Honestly he was that guy every year since being drafted. Played in 4 levels last year and in Rk, A, and AAA all in the year he was drafted. He must have a good attitude. I do wonder how he was chosen as the guy who was going to play wherever they needed him rather than following a development path. Not that there couldn't be a path to the majors that way, certainly he knows how to make adjustments by now, but it must be a tough way to try to develop.
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