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diehardtwinsfan

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Everything posted by diehardtwinsfan

  1. diehardtwinsfan
    I know he's been the worst of our starters, but his 0 WAR ranks him 82nd of all ML starting pitchers as of this post. And he's been getting better as the season moved on. He's certainly on the bottom of the list of starters I want to see, but that effectively means he is (as of today) in the bottom of the #3s/top of the #4s in all of MLB. Most playoff teams don't have a 5th starter that good, and some don't have a 4th that good. He's probably an upgrade over one or two potential playoff contenders 3rd starters as of this moment. Think about that. I'm not losing too much sleep over him figuring it out. The way I see it, Falvine will be looking to get a 1/ace to augment the rotation come July. Pineda will likely go to the pen or flipped for prospects unless he or someone else is hurt. I'm fine with that.
  2. diehardtwinsfan
    So... not to change the subject, but what's your bourbon of choice?
  3. diehardtwinsfan
    Welcome to the site. Please stick around.
  4. diehardtwinsfan
    double digits by the end of May seems rather likely at the moment. I would love to see this wrapped up by the end of June so we can use the trade deadline as a way to stock for the playoffs as opposed to acquiring players to help us get there.
  5. diehardtwinsfan
    what a crappy day... two Tommy Johns and a 3rd guy flirting with it.
  6. diehardtwinsfan
    Believe it or not, our pen hasn't been that bad. We're currently 8th in WAR and 15th in ERA... It's certainly not as bad as I thought it would be, and it could use an upgrade, but it's been getting the job done.... would definitely like an elite reliever or two though.
  7. diehardtwinsfan
    Seeing how they are using Littell, I wouldn't be surprised if you see several starting pitching prospects get some extended time out of the pen to learn a bit more how to pitch in higher leverage situations. If they keep running away with things, reserving a role for that makes some sense. My gut feel though is that you'll see this come say September timeframe since he's not on the 40 man.
  8. diehardtwinsfan
    He's probably in a situation where they still need to build up that endurance. You may be right come say August time frame where bringing him up won't cost an option if he's sent down and he could potentially be added to a playoff roster. I also wouldn't be surprised (given Littell got called up) if he returns to AAA and starts pitching there.
  9. diehardtwinsfan
    Other than Pineda, who would be unneeded if we picked up another starter (and who I don't trust in the pen), who? Pineda makes sense if they picked up Stroman and none of the other starters are hurt, but I don't think this FO is going to sell pieces at the deadline when the team continues to look like a team that can go deep into the playoffs.
  10. diehardtwinsfan
    Personally, I don't think the market price would bear that... and as others have noted, Washington is likely to shed expiring contracts, but not Sherzer. In today's market where no one wants to spend high dollars on aging FAs or give up their prospects, I think the market value for Scherzer would be lower unless Washington is eating a lot of that contract. Certainly could be wrong.
  11. diehardtwinsfan
    The Scherzer thing is an accounting thing. If he's at 35M/year between now and 2021, then they are taking on roughly 85-90M of that contract. The issue is who pays which deferments and when. That's really not that big of a deal. The question is what prospect package would the nats need to take that? Unless they plan on eating a good chunk of that cash, I'm not sure he's going to cost too much in terms of prospects... yes, we'd have to send some their way, but I don't think we'd be emptying the farm.
  12. diehardtwinsfan
    I guess it depends. Not sure I'd give up Rortvedt... but that has more to do with scarcity in the system at C than it is my love for him as a prospect. I'd personally be a bit leery of getting rid of Blazovich. I can understand Lewis and Graterol. I think, however, that Kirilloff should be available. Great hitting prospect in all, but if he was the center piece for an ace, I'd do it and not think too hard about it. I think in all, I'd trade most people if the price was right. I also think some of our AAA pitching will go as 2nd/3rd pieces. Part of that is a 40 man crunch and part is not having room for them in the next year or two.
  13. diehardtwinsfan
    That's why I said we should get a reliever now
  14. diehardtwinsfan
    This is probably worth it's own post here. I'm not terribly worried about these guys for a couple weeks or even if one pitcher goes down. It's a bigger issue if multiple pitchers go down for a long time, but to be fair, every team in baseball is in a similar spot... very few have even potential #1s sitting in the high minors, much less real ones... These 4 have some upside, perhaps not a ton (I still think Thorpe could be really good, but I'm losing faith on the rest), and are perfectly capable of handling things in a short stint, especially with Cleveland not keeping up. I suspect at least one of them will be packaged in a trade this summer to get help. But as the season wears on, there's less time where this is even a big deal. Bottom line, if things continue to progress, the FO needs to be thinking about playoff rosters and not worrying as much about depth.
  15. diehardtwinsfan
    They definitely should be targeting a reliever now. I do like the idea of signing Kimbrel in a couple weeks, but I would still want to acquire at least one more arm via trade. I agree with Thrylos that Stashak deservers a shot. At the very least, get the kid to AAA... It's not like there's a wealth of relievers blocking him. As for starting, that's not as urgent, but if that lead is well into the double digits by the end of June, I could still see trying to get an ace to help with the playoffs. Not quite sure what to do with Pineda. I suppose if no one gets hurt, he can get flipped for a prospect to a team in desperate need of a 5th starter to hang on. Not sure I want him and his elevated HR rates in the pen.
  16. diehardtwinsfan
    I hope you guys are updating the fun with numbers thread with these facts.
  17. diehardtwinsfan
    Pen needs an upgrade. Rotation is fine for the regular season, but if they could go for it and get an ace, I'd be happy about that.
  18. diehardtwinsfan
    I wouldn't be surprised if Arraez is traded, but if there's a 3/4 return, the FO did it wrong. Right now, we have 2 SPs in the top 30 in MLB. Martin Perez has just missed it (1.2 WAR to date) and Gibson is at 51. We don't need a 3/4 type as we have 4 pitchers in the top 51 starting pitchers. RP is a different story. If the get a starter, I would go for an ace that slots ahead of Berrios in the playoffs.
  19. diehardtwinsfan
    I tend to agree, but there's a bit of a catch there. You know what you're getting with Adrianza… not so much with Arraez. He could go into a funk and need to be sent back down, and if Adrianza has been DFAd, you may not have a replacement option.... For his role, I don't think that's the end of the world, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the FO punted on that decision and optioned Arraez or Astrudillo instead.
  20. diehardtwinsfan
    I know the big knock on him in the past was his lefty/righty splits. He was killer against lefties. I'm somewhat curiuous if his usage this season has evened out or if he's still being brought in when a lineup has a few lefties coming up...
  21. diehardtwinsfan
    Arraez is certainly making the case for the 2B job next season.
  22. diehardtwinsfan
    even then, I'd move him up slowly... let him bat 6/7 for a while before putting him in the top half... just make sure it's not a slow plodder sitting in front of him.
  23. diehardtwinsfan
    not sure about that... my back of the napkin eye test on the math says the AA numbers are close enough together. I'd bet if you took those numbers out 20-30 years, the AA numbers would probably be around a standard deviation. I'm not sure I could say that with the AAA numbers. You're right that we need more of a sample, but there's quite the jump in AAA compared to AA. We all know the PCL has been high, but the IL was in line with AA up until this year. I am somewhat curious about trending data as we all know the emphasis in things like launch angle over the last few seasons.
  24. diehardtwinsfan
    Austin is gone. Kepler was just extended. They might get a lotto ticket for Adrianza or Cave. I don't mind Cave as a 4th OF personally. There's potential upside in his bat and he can play all 3 positions. I think the team is married to Kepler now. Like it or not. That contract is cheap, and I suppose someone would take it off their hands for a prospect, but at the moment, there's no real heir apparent to step in, and there probably won't be for a couple seasons yet. Here's to hoping he finally has that break out.
  25. diehardtwinsfan
    Obviously SSS... but if Arraez is hitting well and manages to do so during his various cups of coffee, Schoop probably gets a QO and Arraez and Gordon get a crack at the job if he leaves... and I have to think that Arraez will be the front runner if he keeps it up. Ultimately, they are probably waiting on Gordon/Lewis/Javier to earn it, but outside of Gordon, the others aren't close. Arraez strikes me as someone who can slide into the Marwin role for what that's worth.
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