diehardtwinsfan

Given the turnover on a minor league team, I don't think team by team numbers make a lot of sense. I think the best way to judge this is to look at the league numbers from the last few seasons... I'm assuming there's a big jump from last years numbers to this years, but I'd also be curious if there was an upwards trend prior to that.

Given his speed, I agree that he should have it at his disposal, especially when the bases are empty or there's a shift on.

Even with the drop in velocity, he's still well above average for a RP. I guess there's probably legitimate questions as to whether or not he was dealing with stuff... but even with those peripheral changes, he was a very good pitcher last season. I could see being leary of a long term deal, but I don't see why they don't try to get him to help.

He's not on the 40 man but has to be added this offseason, so my guess would be a late August/September callup so as not to waste an option. If he pitched well, he could potentially be on an October roster (though I do believe someone has to be on the 60 day for that to happen if he's called up in Sept.. it won't be as simple as adding him)…

I know Ottavino was a name a few of us tossed out. I remember a few people being on the Holland bandwagon too. If we had both of those, we'd probably have a couple more in the W column. That said, we're still in some pretty strong SSS territory. Plenty of guys could go out there and toss zeros in their next handful of appearances and look pretty good. I'll probably dust this off again come closer the ASB and see, but so far, it looks like the FO new what they were doing when they did nothing. I don't like that, but that's what the data says.

Gaging value in relief pitichers is always a difficult task given that they are prone to issues with small sample size. Many relievers who were good one season will regress the next, and as we've seen with Blake Parker, guys who were nothing special can turn into a very good option. Regardless, it was, without question, a point of contention this offseason among TD readers about the front office getting more help for the pen. I personally beat this horse dead on numerous occasions. I was happy with the Parker signing, but made it clear that I didn't want this to be the main acquisition. The pen so far has not been as bad as some of us (myself included) thought. It has essentially been slightly better than league average if WAR is be believed, though its peripherals definitely say that there's room for improvement. As such, I'm going to wade into the dollars vs. development debate and take a look at the FA relievers from the 2018 season to see if it was worth spending the money. I'll split these out by contract value. That's a bit arbitrary, but it does speak to the general demand for these players. My main source is this ESPN list. I'm not going to pretend that I've found all of them, so apologies if I missed a few. I'm not going to touch minor league signings. The cream of the Crop: Kelvin Herrera - Herrera signed a 2/17 deal with Chicago and has so far been a bust, posting an ERA north of 5 out of the pen in 20 appearances so far this season. His K rate has been acceptable, but his BB rate has risen along with his WHIP. Andrew Miller - Another big name in the RP market, Miller has been, so far at least, a bust as well, posting a 4.80 ERA for the Cards after signing a 2/25 deal with an additional option. His K rate has improved this season but his WHIP has gotten worse with increases in hits, walks, and HRs per 9 innings. Adam Ottavino - Our first success story on the big name candidates comes from Ottavino, who thus far has been a dominant option in the back of the Yankees' pen. His control has been a bit worse than normal (walking 6.5 batters per 9), but his hit rate is an absurd 4.5 per 9 and his strike out rate has increased as well. So far at least the 3/27 contract he signed has been good for NY. Craig Kimbrel - He's still unsigned. So the book is still out. Jeurys Familia - Familia chose to remain with the Mets this offseason, and thus far hasn't rewarded the 3/30 contract he signed as his ERA is also north of 5 and his WHIP has skyrocketed due in large part to doubling his walk rate. His HR rate has doubled too thus far. Zach Britton - Britton made bank signing a 3/39 deal with the Yankees and has so far not disappointed. His K rate has increased substantially while the rest of his peripherals have remained pretty close to the same. His ERA is slightly lower as well. Joe Kelly - Kelly signed a 3/25 deal with the LAD and has been probably the worst of this bunch. His ERA sits over 8. His K rate has dropped and he's seen large increases in both his hit and HR rates in his 16 appearances. His walk has dropped though. David Robertson - Robertson signed a 2/23 deal with Philly and has been a bust so far. He's pitched in only 7 innings and has been shelled. He's currently on the shelf with elbow sorness. In all, there have only been two hits of the 7 who signed in this group. I cannot emphasize enough that SSS is a huge factor here, but only 2 of these guys would have helped our pen... and unfortunately both are pitching for NY. Second Tier Justin Wilson - Wilson was a cheap grab for the mets, signing a 2/10 deal. Risk aside, he hasn't performed well thus far posting a 4.8 ERA in only 10 games. His peripherals are all over the place and seems to be buoyed largely by a couple extra home runs. His K rate and BB rates are both down this year. Joakim Soria - Soria signed a 2/15 deal with Oakland, and while the ERA is not pretty, his peripherals are in line with his career averages. Both his K rate and BB rates are up a bit and he has yet to give up a HR in his 21 innings. I'm not sure I'd call this a bust at this point as I think he's probably a victim of bad luck, but his 5.14 ERA is a bit ugly. Cody Allen - Allen signed a 1 year deal with the Angels and so far has not lived up to his 8.5M salary. His HR and BB rates have skyrocketed though he still maintains a sexy K rate. His 5.54 ERA is something we can all live without. Jesse Chavez - Chavez signed a 2/8 deal with Texas, and thus far every one of his peripherals have trended in the wrong direction. His ERA is north of 5. Trevor Rosenthal - Rosenthal has under performed his 1/7 deal and is currently in the minors rehabbing due to a viral infection. His 3 inning ML sample is a bit too small to gage at this point, though the results weren't good. There are only 5 names in this tier, and so far every team wouldn't mind a do over. I could see a couple of these names evening out over the course of this season, but none of these guys would have helped us much at this point. Cheap Fliers Brad Brach - Brach has gotten results for the Cubs, but his peripherals say he's on borrowed time. His walk rate has doubled and his K rate is about at career norms. Still for 3 million dollar deal, Brach hasn't been bad. Zach Duke - yes, that Zach Duke. He signed a 2M deal with the Reds and has been horrible in 15 innings so far. Cory Gearrin - the Mariners have, thus far, gotten a bargin with Gearrin for the 1.4M value of his contract. His ERA is a bit higher than we'd like for an RP at 3.63 but thus far he's performed. His K rate is way up as is his walk rate. Gearrin would be an upgrade over a couple players in our pen. Not bad for the money. Greg Holland - I have to tip my cap to those on the Holland bandwagon along with Arizona for picking him for only 3.25M. He's been worth it posting a 1.80 ERA. Despite an elevated walk rate, his WHIP is down. His K rate is up. He's given up less hits and kept the ball in the park in his 15 innings. He would be one of our best relievers. Shawn Kelley - Another nice find for the bargain price of 2.75M. Kelley has only pitched 14 innings, but has given up 9 hits and 2 runs in that span allowing for a 1.29 ERA. Aaron Loup - The Padres got him for 1.4M and he's been perfect so far this season. The only real problem is that it's a 4 inning sample as he hit the IL in early April with elbow soreness. The book is still out here. Blake Parker - We know him. So far a win for the front office. Oliver Perez - Perez signed a 2.5M deal with Cleveland. He has only pitched in 10 innings to the tune of a 4.5 ERA thus far. Not a bad find in the value category. His peripherals all look pretty good and he's one of the few pitchers whose BB rate has dropped so far this season. I'm going with a bit of bad luck on the ERA, but he wouldn't present much of an upgrade to our pen. David Phelps - The Blue Jays signed him in hopes that he recovers from TJS at some point this year and pitches. He went under the knife last spring. Not a bad risk for 2.5M. He's yet to pitch. Tony Sipp - Sipp signed for 1.25 for the Nats and has not been good. He's appeared in 17 games and only pitched 9 innings with an ERA of 6. Hunter Strickland - Strickland signed a 1.3M deal and has pitched all of 2 innings, and poorly. He's out a couple months due to a grade 2 strain of a lat muscle. Adam Warren - Warren has been OK for the Padres with a 3.72 ERA. That's not special, nor are his peripherals, but he hasn't been horrible either. Not bad for 2.5M. Of the 12 names on this list, there are only 3 clear misses at this point. Phelps was not expected to necessarily be pitching yet, so I'd say the jury is still out here. That may turn into a good deal for the Jays. Given their season though, he's likely going to be traded if he's pitching this summer. Holland, Kelley, and Parker have all been quite good for their teams. The other 6 fall under too soon to tell or value signings in that they haven't been bad, though they wouldn't necessarily be huge upgrades either. One other trend that I noticed is that most relievers seemed to have noticeable increases in their BB rates. I'm not sure if that's more on an emphasis on Ks (which also were generally up), but relief pitching outcomes seemed much more skewed to higher BB and K rates over these pitcher's career norms. That appears, thus far, to the be the case across MLB as well, as RPs in general are averaging 3.93 BB per 9 along with 9.42 K per 9. Both are thus far significantly higher than last year. Obviously, with these small samples, it's a bit too soon to tell on all of them, but for those of us (myself included) who wanted the Twins to do more, the results say that they would have likely missed.. The top tier has had some good performances, but has ultimately disappointed. The bottom tier has had about the same percentage of hits as the top tier along with some value guys who have performed as well as the top tier signings for much less. As much as I hate to say it, it looks like our front office hasn't done a bad job in this area.

This is probably 2 articles. Very nice... Also, you should throw a blog up about your journey into baseball and where you're from. I personally would be interested in knowing how you became a Twins fan.

I'd say the concern here is a bit too soon. He had a short rehab stint and this is his second game facing ML pitching. He's also always going to be a high K guy anyways.. if he's putting up a ton of games like this in two weeks, then it's probably time to be concerned. But as it is, he two doubles yesterday, so I think it's more or less him still needing to knock some rust off.

I think Schoop is dealing with an injury that could use a day or two off. That may be why. Get the kid a taste of the bigs for a couple days and then send him back down.

I suspect Arraez and Gordon will be fighting for Schoop's spot (unless we extend him). Woudlnt' be surprised if one of those guys got traded come July too. We still have Lewis and Javier not far behind them, and Polanco isn't going anywhere.

It feels great.... I hope we get this feeling all season long.

If he keeps hitting like he has in the month of May for the majority of the remaining season, yes... I agree. His April wasn't bad either, and certainly light years above his previous Aprils, but it wasn't exceptional. I still think calling him a star is a pre-mature. I'd like to see more out of him than good numbers over a month and a half being propelled by a 2 week hot streak before I start using that term. I've seen too many comparisons to Trout over the years to let a good 6 week start get me overly excited. Right now, he wouldn't be the top MVP candidate on this team. That would be Polanco, and I suspect Garver would be rated higher in the national circuits as well (at least until the recent injury).

I do think it's time to move him up. Not sure I'd put him at leadoff just yet, but bumping him up to 6 or 7 on a nightly basis would be a worthwhile test.

Doing it for a month is not a star... sorry. Mike Trout is a star. He's been performing at an MVP level for a while. Even if Buxton kept this up all season, he wouldn't be in MVP conversation... I like Buxton. I'm encouraged by his start. Let's not get ahead of ourselves...

yeah, me thinks that the math is off.

Me thinks it's a bit too early to use the term Star and Buxton in the same sentence. He's got elite defense and (right now) a better than average bat in SSS... I'd like to seem more July-Sept 2017 Buxton before I use the term star to describe him.

Larnach has really come around. That's nice to see.

probably worth noting that this discussion will be a bigger deal come next season when the 25 man roster gets bigger.

also, I really don't understand why MLB doesn't push for an extra year for international FAs at age 16 or 17. That has been a problem with the Twins . Polanco was forced to be added to the 40 man while he was in high A. Thorpe had to burn an option last year as well b/c of this. There's so much more that can go wrong with a 16/17 yo, and so much more development needed. One would think that the extra year would be beneficial.

He's already in AA. It doesn't really rush him b/c at some point he's probably in AAA this year anyways. Even if not, he would start in AAA next year.... so no real need to rush him.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it depends on the severity of the sprain... but yeah. I'd imagine that one is going to sap his ability as a catcher and possibly a hitter too if it isn't healed... hopefully he heals quick.

I'd say the book is still out with Gordon. He's been a pretty consistent .800 ish OPS guy to start the season only to cool off rapidly. The IL trip isn't great, but I'll consider this a good season if he can maintain a decent OPS through an entire year.

Ted jinxed him... so I guess that means he needs to write about some of our opponents stars next Garver has show potential throughout the years with his bat... but I have to say this is something else. He was never quite that good. He was more of the guy you could see being an .800-.850 OPS behind the dish with average defense... which I'd add is a pretty good catcher. Now... wow. Hope the injury doesn't slow him down.

Like this piece... if the Twins continue to win, you should see lots of continued growth.

If he keeps this up over the season, he'll have earned the comparison.