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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Hey, they say they're trying to win! And I believe they're trying to win the central. Well, hoping they're good enough to win the central is probably the right way to say that.
  2. chpettit19
    And, like I said before, players on teams who aren't trying to win's value is equal to their trade value. But we were talking about the Twins who at least claim they're trying to win. So, in that case, the odds don't change their relative value to the team.
  3. chpettit19
    I would not use that analogy because that wasn't the point I was making in that post. Or any of the subsequent posts. My point is that there's 2 types of values. Value to the team's ability to win and trade value. They aren't the same thing. You've said many times that the Nationals are the only team you can see that would want/need Correa. That effects his trade value. His WAR projection hasn't changed. His salary hasn't changed. So, according to you and DJL his asset value hasn't changed. He's the same guy. But, according to you, there's only 1 team that would want/need his services, thus there would be no bidding war and the Twins would have to take or leave whatever Washington would offer. Now if the Mets or Yankees (for examples sake) were to jump in as well that would change his trade value because now that team would have to offer more than the Nats if they wanted him and the Nats would have to offer more than that still if they wanted him. So his trade value has changed but his WAR and salary still hasn't. He's the same player/asset but his trade value has changed. BTV is a fun little tool. They even change their numbers frequently to try to keep up with things. But the market changes. Players sign or get traded which changes the landscape of the league which changes what the trade value for individual players may be. But what Correa means to the Twins doesn't change until/unless the Twins change their roster. Those are 2 separate values. What you mean to the individual team you're on (the value Nick is ranking guys on on this list) and what your trade value is are different things.
  4. chpettit19
    Roster construction is a pretty big variable. Simply having the player already signed and on your roster is another. Trade Correa this offseason without another SS on hand and your FA options were/are Willy Adames and Ha-Seong Kim or play musical chairs with trades. "Can always use money to obtain players every offseason" is all well and good until no good players want to take your money. And then suddenly Correa's value to you feels way higher after he's gone because you have Brooks Lee OPSing .600 for you at SS in 2025 and nobody else in the system even close to ready. Or maybe they bring Farmer back to be the SS in 2025. But, hey, I'm sure it'd lead to Laureano in the OF and that'd make up the difference, right? It's not a grocery store. You don't get to just take that money and pick out who you want. Having the guy on your roster already is value and a variable that matters. The likelihood of winning the championship doesn't change a player's value to the team.
  5. chpettit19
    That quote you added literally says "whereas this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific point of view." Why would you then say "If this was specifically a Twins-centric evaluation?" The abundance of relief pitchers comment directly follows the "Twins-specific point of view" comment and the lack of catching comment. Those are statements about the Twins. You disagree with Nick's opinion, so do I when it comes to Julien, but don't just change what his list is to fit your own. I mean you enlarged a quote that literally says it isn't a trade value ranking and ignore the rest of the sentence that says it's Twins-specific and then go on to tell me it doesn't say it's not a trade value ranking and isn't Twins-specific. What are we even talking about? You provided the very statement you claim isn't there.
  6. chpettit19
    You've already explained multiple ways how they're different right there. The Twins don't have a SS that can step in for Correa (in my opinion) so his value to them is already different than his trade value right there. That's not something I'd say is "little," but to each their own. If you're just trying to rebuild then their value to the team is directly equal to their trade value. If you are actively trying to win then there are far more variables than just WAR minus salary. His trade value itself isn't the same for every other team. It's not a static number. His value to the As isn't the same as his value to the Dodgers which isn't the same as his value to the Mets which isn't the same as his value to the Rockies. The makeup of each individual team and their budget and their goal for that season and the ones immediately following it change that player's value to that team. The number of teams that value that player highly then changes that player's trade value. Correa's value is ever changing depending on the landscape of the team and league. Unfortunately for us, this team doesn't seem to be changing much. So, his value to the Twins, in my opinion, is incredibly high because I don't believe they can win without him (but I also think he's going to play 135+ games next year). It's Falvey's job to determine if there's ever a time when the lines cross and his value to the team is no longer higher than his trade value and they should move him. It's why it makes sense that they're always listening on every player (even if I think he needs to be much better at how he says that in the media). Because if some team decides Correa's value to them is suddenly sky high and they offer a ridiculous package that is higher than his value to the team the Twins should take it. But if he's still more valuable to their ability to win they should keep him. That Pohlad analogy doesn't work. Correa plays (or doesn't) every year. There's no sitting on that asset. He's "sold" every year. That's my point. That's why it's literally the front office's job to disentangle the difference between his trade value and his value to the team's ability to win. The Pohlads could move to Greece and never even think about the Twins and still have that asset there to sell in 15 years for whatever it's worth. That isn't how player value works. They have 2 very separate values. And you have to be able to separate them or you won't last long in a front office job, because you're either selling them on the trade market or you're selling them to play on your team. You have to decide which one they have more value in.
  7. chpettit19
    If you're essentially giving up nothing, sure go for it. But don't give up anybody with any real shot at being something. Would've been ideal if this happened in about 9 days when they could've just thrown a couple hundred K worth of international pool dollars at them for him. But Cartaya is a bad hitter. Like horrible. Like a 60 wRC+ at AAA which matches Vazquez's 60 at MLB. So, he's a significantly worse hitter than Vazquez who's at the bottom of the barrel of MLB hitters. It sure sounds like every writer thinks somebody is going to trade for him. Former top 100 prospects get lots of chances. But the odds are very much not in his favor to ever be a major leaguer. Jair Camargo had a rough go of things in AAA last year and he still managed a 76 wRC+. Cartaya was still 16 points below that and the Twins didn't give Camargo any run even with Vazquez being a 60 wRC+ in the majors. It sounds like he's a pretty good defender so it's probably worth calling them about a trade. But he only has 1 option left so you get 1 year to fix what seems to be a completely broken, K machine of a bat before you're DFAing him yourself. He wouldn't get anybody off my top 30 list. Probably not off my top 50 list. Maybe not off my top 100 system list. If I could get the Pohlads to slip me 50K I'd offer that. But he's being carried by his name right now. I don't like trading things for a name while the actual production on the field is screaming that the guy is toast.
  8. chpettit19
    Strongly disagree. If the Twins don't trade Correa before he retires they never sold that stock so how much value did it have? The value it had was what he provided to the team while he played. You HAVE to disentangle "asset values" from "trade values." It's an absolute necessity of the front office's jobs. It essentially is their job. Because the majority of their stocks are never "sold for cash" through trade, they're "sold for cash" through playing. Discerning the difference between the value the player has being on your team and what value you can "sell it for" is vital, not impossible. It's everything.
  9. chpettit19
    BTV as in "Baseball Trade Values?" For an article that very clearly states it isn't about trade values?
  10. chpettit19
    I'm with @DJL44, Julien wouldn't be anywhere near my top 20. Wouldn't be in my future plans at all. AAA to start the year and if he comes to spring with a new swing path and ability to hit breaking pitches he can fight his way back to the majors and back into my plans, but as of today he's not even in my plans. Don't know how that'd fit on my rankings, but certainly not sniffing the top 20. When it just comes to the Twins building a championship team (what this list is supposed to be about according to the explanation) and not just simply trade value then I'd have Correa significantly higher than 16. The foot problems are a concern, but he's still in the top 10 for me when it comes to the most valuable pieces this team has when it comes to winning. If he can play 130 games and the playoffs he's in the top 5 for most valuable pieces they have. I think 16 is much too low unless you don't think he's playing more than half the games in a season moving forward. And I don't think that's the case. Maybe I'm just being too optimistic.
  11. chpettit19
    You realize that every MLB player is a former rookie, right? You can't become a veteran without first being a rookie. And my stance is absolutely not that rookies, or young players (I assume what you really meant) are always the best choice. My stance is that bad veterans are bad investments because they have no upside. If they're good I'd love to have them. But the ones that can be easily replaced by guys making the minimum are not worth investing millions in. I understand what the thumbs down mean. They don't bother me, that's why I continue to tell you to just click that button and move on. I request that you do that to save us both the time of the pointless discussion that will follow.
  12. chpettit19
    That wasn't my suggestion, it was the other poster. Martin isn't really replacing Kepler, Wallner is. And it's a very clear upgrade overall for the Twins. Miranda was a better overall hitter than Santana. You're not worth discussing this with because your stance on all of this kind of stuff is that the veteran is the better option no matter what. So keep giving me the thumbs down and laughing faces and I'll just enjoy my night.
  13. chpettit19
    I mean if you really want to get into it Martin isn't replacing Kepler at all. Martin isn't going to be a starting corner outfielder. Wallner is replacing Kepler in RF and that's a massive upgrade offensively while being a clear downgrade defensively. But overall it's an upgrade. So, the loss of Kepler isn't hurting anything because Matt Wallner in RF is an upgrade overall for the team. Don't do that. You know very well that Miranda's 2023 OPS+ number was way down because of his injured shoulder and that's why his career number is 105. His healthy rookie season was 114 and last year was 112. But the discussion we are having is the change from the 2024 to 2025 team. The point you tried to make was the Twins lost their 2nd best hitter (you were trying to suggest that was Santana for some very weird reason) and I pointed out that Miranda hit better than him last year. Because he did. I'd be happy to make a wager with you that Miranda out hits him again in 2025. And there's no reason to believe that Santana leaving is clearing the way for more playing time for Julien. None at all. Miranda hit better against righties than lefties last year. Miranda as the everyday 1B is a far more reasonable expectation than Julien taking 1B reps from him.
  14. chpettit19
    Kepler was already replaced by Martin last season so that isn't a change from 2024 to 2025. Miranda hit better than Santana last season so that is an improvement. Other than those things, sure solid point.
  15. chpettit19
    Near complete bust? Matt Wallner had a wRC+ of 155 last year. Was 143 the year before. Larnach was 121. Miranda 115. Lewis has crushed when healthy and was again last year until he ran out of gas (lost 1.7 MPH on his swing at the end of the year). Jeffers 107. Ryan and Ober are very much established legit major league pitchers. If that's a near complete bust of a young core I'd hate to see what your expectations are for a contending core. Are there massive health question marks with their 3 most talented position players? Absolutely. Is there a consistency concern from the roster overall that is mind boggling? For sure. But even with the collapse those guys put up more than respectable numbers.
  16. chpettit19
    Max Kepler didn't help the Twins in 2024. His loss doesn't mean anything. The Guardians traded their gold glove 2B and didn't replace him and their 2nd best hitter and replaced him with a guy who can't hit righties. They've made both their defense and already bad offense worse. Why should we care if Cleveland "shuffled pieces" if the new pieces are worse than the old pieces? KC really hasn't done anything to improve overall as they traded from their rotation to address that weakness. If the Twins trade Ober for a bat would you say they've addressed their weakness and thus "kept pace with the pack?" The Royals had the 2nd best rotation ERA in baseball last year. It's why they were good. They just traded one of their starters. So now the best part of their team is weaker. Have they really improved? Detroit adding Gleyber is the only move that didn't come with a direct reduction in talent from the major league roster of one of our division rivals. If they add Bregman as well the 2025 Tigers would be looking pretty solid. But the other 2 teams worth talking about haven't improved their teams. So it's not too hard to "keep pace." That being said, there's a lot of offseason left and, as you said, the other teams have a lot more noise around them than the Twins do. It certainly feels more likely that one or more of them add than the Twins add. But as of right now nobody in the central has really made any moves to separate themselves from this jumbled mess of mediocrity.
  17. chpettit19
    Now you seem to be combining this offseason and overall recent historical front office performance into one. Arguing any Central team other than Cleveland has outperformed the Twins front office recently is nonsense. Nobody would make that argument. The Twins got a 1st round comp pick back for Sonny Gray. The Guardians can have 39-year old Santana for 12 mil. For a team with their offensive and financial struggles to drop that contract on that guy at 1B over Naylor is a win for the Twins. That swap made the Guardians a worse team. Slade Cecconi (the guy they got back for Naylor) isn't a prospect. He's been in the majors for parts of 2 seasons (104 innings, 17 starts) and owns an ERA over 6. In 77 innings last year (more than Festa threw for the Twins for reference) he had a 6.66 ERA. If the Twins traded their 2nd best hitter for Slade Cecconi in a swap like this these boards would be losing their collective minds. But the Guardians do it so now it's a win? Nope. Not buying it. Add in that they also traded their gold glove 2nd baseman to do nothing but save money and there's no way you guys would be praising the Twins for this. None. You'd be lighting the Twins up. But now you're claiming the Guardians are improving. The Guardians are less talented today than they were when the season ended. Traded Kepler when? Before last year or during the season? Could have traded him before the season, and I would have. Rumors were they tried. These boards would've been pretty split on that with him coming off the 2nd half he had in 2023 and them coming off the playoff wins. But no, they couldn't have gotten anything useful for him in the middle of the year when he was terrible and hurt. Kepler isn't a loss from 2024. He was bad. He didn't help the team. Already mentioned that they got stuff for Gray. They traded Berrios and fans still complain about that. Can't please everyone. They should trade Ryan or Ober after 2025, but they'll get lit up for that.
  18. chpettit19
    The Twins weren't trying to turn Austin Martin into a "slugger." They weren't trying to add power at the cost of average. They were trying to turn him into a more patient, faster version of Bo Bichette. It's exactly why the minor leagues exist. Steven Kwan just made the same adjustment this last year in the majors. Look for fastballs on the inner half early in the count to pull for power before going back to your natural opposite field, high average approach to allow you to still hit for a high average while bringing enough pop to keep major league pitchers honest. Austin just couldn't make the adjustment. And that's why we're talking about him hopefully being a utility player instead of being a potential all star like the other 2. The Twins did the right thing for them and him. It just doesn't work out sometimes. And now Austin has to find a way to salvage his career. Austin Martin is not young anymore. Debut age of 25 does not scream "more ceiling left." Doesn't mean there isn't ceiling left, but the odds are not in his favor. He is not new to the outfield. He's been playing it since he was in college. His reads are awful. I don't mean he struggles a little, I mean they're among the worst in the majors. For somebody who's been taking fly balls and has 1500ish innings of outfield work under his belt as a professional his reads should be far better. 2B is his best spot. His arm was never going to be good enough for SS and I'm not sure why they wasted so much time playing him there, but it's likely he'll never be a good enough defender anywhere other than 2B to be a defensive asset as a utility guy. He was drafted for his bat and that's what's supposed to carry him. He's never shown anything as a pro that would suggest he's going to be the type of hitter people here are suggesting. With power or without. A leadoff hitter on a major league contender? Nothing about his performance with Toronto or Minnesota has ever suggested he'd be good enough to hit in the top 5 of an order. #9 hitter as a secondary table setter? That's the ceiling you should be hoping for. I agree with @Linus, if Martin's glove were an asset he'd have a nice career ahead of him. But as a minus defender with significantly better prospects hot on his heals he's going to have a hard time holding down a job in MN unless he suddenly starts hitting way better than he ever has at any level as a professional. I was thrilled when they got him in the Berrios trade. He was my favorite player coming out of the 2020 draft. I thought he was going to be a .290+ hitter with 15 HRs and 30 steals a year. But he hasn't been able to make that swing adjustment to pull the ball for power and he just doesn't have any bat speed. That's a hard combination to overcome at the major league level.
  19. chpettit19
    Totally agree. He's a bad defensive catcher, although has a solid arm. If you're someone who cares about defense behind the plate he's not someone you should be hoping the Twins are chasing. He's a bat first player. Could be a very nice bat, though. I don't have any desire for the Twins to give up what it likely costs to get him. I think people just see the "C" next to his name and think he's available at a discounted price because the Dodgers have Will Smith. That isn't the case. They aren't going to just give away a top-50 global prospect. They'll do what people hate that the Twins do and move him to another position. Which they've already started the process of. As they say, if you can hit, they'll find a spot for you. Getting Dalton Rushing is going to cost a ton. Way more than I'd pay.
  20. chpettit19
    India came with the loss of Singer. Santana came with the loss of Naylor. It's a little misleading to only count additions and not subtractions when talking about the moves those teams made. Cleveland traded their gold glove 2B for salary relief, One could argue they had to do that to afford Bieber. Torres is the only addition that didn't come with a subtraction. And farm system rankings are all well and good, but if David Festa and Zebby Matthews were still eligible MN would be much higher than 13. The White Sox just set the all time single season loss record and traded their best player to land the prospects to get that ranking. I'll take the Twins situation over that any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
  21. chpettit19
    The Central remains 4 teams in a jumbled mess that could all reasonably win anywhere from the low-70s to 90ish games depending on how a couple things break and then the White Sox. I think Cleveland is less talented today than they were when the season ended. I think KC will take a step back if they don't add more as Bobby Witt Jr is amongst the best players in baseball, but 30/30 seasons while hitting .330 are really, really hard to repeat and I don't think Lugo and Wacha can repeat quite what they did last year and their rotation will take a step back in performance. I think Detroit is very similar to MN in that a lot of their season will come down to their youngsters taking the next step or maintaining health and performance for a full year. Greene, Carpenter, Keith, and Jung in particular. If Jackson Jobe steps in as a poor man's Skenes to pair with Skubal the rotation could be solid, but I don't think the pitching is quite there so I'd guess they take a step back as well, unless there's more added in the coming months. I think the Twins are the most talented team in the division but we're all well aware of the massive injury concerns with the 3 most talented position players. Just like every year with this core the variance for outcomes is wide as there's just so many variables. The roster has talent, but its a maddening combination of injury prone and inconsistent. The White Sox aren't worth talking about.
  22. chpettit19
    Despite people around here not liking the Twins moving guys to new positions to get their bats in the lineup, that's what teams do, and that's what the Dodgers are doing with Rushing. The Dodgers may not "need" Rushing, but they're going to use Rushing. The Dodgers love defensive versatility. It's why Cartaya is available now, because they wanted more defensive versatility so brought in Kim. They moved Rushing to LF towards the end of last year so he'd have more versatility and they could get him in their lineup. The Twins, or any team, could get Dalton Rushing if they really want him, but they better be prepared to give up a big time piece. Because he's not some helpless piece trapped behind Will Smith. He's a top 50 global prospect. You're probably looking at trading Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, or Bailey Ober if you want Dalton Rushing. Ready to do that? Maybe you can talk them into Duran being the big piece. Or Rodriguez or Jenkins if you're doing your 3 team trade idea to get our own top 50 prospect involved. But you're not getting Dalton Rushing for scraps just because it says "catcher" next to his name. Because it also says "outfield" next to his name now.
  23. chpettit19
    When is a pretty easy question to answer. Between January 15th and January 23rd.
  24. chpettit19
    Of course Falvey isn't calling him in the middle of the game telling him what to do. But he meets with him every day during the season. Every. Day. You really think he's kept Rocco around for 6 years (about to be 7) while meeting with him every day discussing these moves and strategies but he disagrees with them and would hire somebody who'd use the Margot, Farmer, Luplow, Garlick, etc. types he brings in (you, again, conveniently skip the part where he starts off saying "I think it depends on personnel") in non-platoon roles? It'd be an awfully bold move to bring in a bunch of clear platoon bats and then hire a manager that doesn't platoon them. "Hey, here's multiple righties who can't hit righties but mash lefties, how do you plan to use them? Start them against righties even when you have other options? Well, it's your call, you're the manager." Yeah, I see what you're saying. He'd definitely do that. Or he'd just ask the manager what players he should go bring in. Either way, I'm sure that's the answer. Good call. Firing Rocco would definitely lead to a drastic change in how the Twins build their team and use their players. These definitely aren't organizational philosophies that start with Falvey and he definitely wouldn't replace Rocco with somebody who believes in the same general philosophies.
  25. chpettit19
    I haven't said anything at all about where Falvey is at. My comment wasn't at all about what Falvey should or shouldn't be doing. My comment was pointing out that the author made statements that they couldn't support. How is Falvey supposed to convey these things to Roki? He's sent in his presentation. He can't do anything else at this point unless Roki and his representation grant him a meeting. That's my point. Falvey should be, and hopefully is, prepared for any possible meeting with Roki, but claiming the Twins are "making a serious push" sure doesn't appear to be based on anything. That's what I questioned. They sent in a presentation. There's no other pushing to do. Falvey isn't calling Wolfe everyday. That's not how this works. Teams were told how this works. How it works was they were told when to send in their presentation by. They'd get invited to sit down with him for less than 2 hours (every team got the same amount of time to meet with him) if he liked their presentation. They were told he'd do a second round of meetings starting around the 15th of January when the international signing period opens and he gets ready to make his final decision. There's nothing for Falvey to be doing with Roki Sasaki right now. There's no "serious push" to be made until/unless Roki says "I'd like to meet with you." Falvey sent the presentation. He did all he could do. What I'm questioning is the author's statements that don't seem to be based on anything beyond trying to draw hope out of random agent quotes. Just like you tried to do with the "soft landing" quotes before. Those were just agent speak and so are these. The real information that we have about Roki's intentions are the 7 teams he chose to meet with while he was in LA. None of which were the Twins as far as we know. There's no "serious push" to be hopeful about when the player in question hasn't yet chosen to speak to the Twins.
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