chpettit19

At this point if they're making big time trades at the deadline I'd be hoping it's as a seller. I'm not saying they should be a seller, but this team isn't worth sacrificing the future for. They aren't close enough to being a true contender to be trading off the prospects needed to bring back needle moving players. And they need needle movers to become real contenders. Not more "floor setters." Unless something drastically changes in the next month and a half, it's likely the best course of action is to let this season play out with the pieces they have and make some drastic changes in the offseason.

I prefer the word "depth" to the phrase "log jam," I guess. But, generally speaking, there will never be a time that any team has too much of any talent on either the hitting or pitching side of things. Or at any one position. Or at any group of positions (infield or outfield). Never. Not ever. Not a single moment. But that also shouldn't stop a team from thinking about trades, talking about trades, or making trades. There are times where teams can feel more comfortable with their "depth" than other times, but there's never a time where they say they have too much talent and need to get rid of some of it just because of the position somebody plays at that particular time and what your major league roster looks like at that particular time. It's the same thing with the draft. Draft for talent and upside. Best player available. Not what you major league team or system looks like. Because things change quickly. So, can the Twins "finally" leverage their outfield "depth" at the deadline? Maybe. Who knows what that depth will look like at the deadline. Will Emma be playing baseball by then? What will the Twins roster look like? Will McCusker be McCrusher? Will Jenkins be lighting AA on fire and having us calling for a AAA promotion already? Will Martin be back? And what will the Twins place in the standings look like? As others have said, many of the guys in the minors aren't actually worth much of anything. And trading the ones who are is incredibly risky because developing your own cheap talent is the #1 key to success for every major league team (yes, even the Dodgers and Yankees). As of today, I wouldn't make any meaningful trades. This team looks like exactly what most of us thought they were. A low- to mid-80s win team. That's not a team I'm sacrificing future pieces for. And, honestly, it'd take a lot over the next month and a half to change my mind on that. And without Pablo and Zebby that's even more unlikely. The offense looks exactly like what many of us thought it was. Multiple middle of the order bats away from being consistently dangerous enough to be a real threat. So, sure, they could make some trades from outfield pieces throughout the organization. But that's been true forever. Jenkins and Keaschall could bring back a lot, but are likely "untouchable." Emma is in a really weird spot right now. And the rest aren't bringing back anything meaningful on their own so the question is more about their willingness to trade from other "depth" in the org.

Where is that context provided in a 16-4 game and your statement of "we need more clutch hitting from some of these guys?" If you meant Wallner, say Wallner. If you had the numbers and context say the numbers and context. There was no late and close situation in this game to draw that context from. The Twins got blown out in this game but you wanted us to pull out "the context" from your 1 sentence that you are talking specifically about Matt Wallner? Why didn't you just say Matt Wallner? And how about you provide the context of Wallner having a whopping 7 ABs in late and close situations. And a .300 OBP in those situations with a .333 OBP in high leverage situations. But that's in only 12 PAs and 9 ABs. That's the very definition of small sample size. Oh, and the Twins scored those runs that you're upset with Wallner for not driving in. So my response is the same. The Twins hit well with runners in scoring position. It's a team game. It's a game of failure for hitters. You need the guy after you to pick you up often. The Twins were successful that inning.

I think it's more about who's in AAA than Sabato himself. He's no longer a prospect. At least not in the sense that you clear space for him at the level above. The Twins likely prefer Miranda, Julien, Schobel, Eeles, Gasper, McCusker (has been taking ground balls at 1B pre-game, fyi), etc. get ABs and they aren't going to clear space for Sabato to get ABs there.

Larnach is hitting .278 with runners in scoring position this year. Jeffers .283. Correa .255. Maybe it's not smart to make decisions based on emotions from one game? The Twins are 4th in baseball in batting average with runners in scoring position. 4th. I don't know how many times they have to say it on broadcasts or how many times it has to be said on these boards. The Twins problem is getting enough guys in scoring position. They're now 22nd in baseball in PAs with runners in scoring position. But once they get them there they're actually very good at driving them in.

They showed him taking grounders during a broadcast a couple days ago and said he was a couple weeks out from a rehab. Wouldn't give any details, though. I think the 18th is a reasonable guess. I think it's likely always been the target date. If he's not back until August I think everyone should be disappointed. Are you referring to the Tommy John? Or is there something I'm unaware of? I wouldn't think the TJ should slow things much.

"That player" hasn't had 450 PAs because of injury. Or last year because he was bad enough that he got beat out for playing time. You had to use a utility player (Garrett Hampson played 7 positions last year plus had 22 pinch hit appearances) in one of your 3 player example to make your "4th OF are very important" point. Impressive stuff. yes, every roster spot is important. And any player can end up playing significantly more than you'd like. Opening day saw Bader in left, Larnach at DH, and Julien on the bench. Game 3 saw the same thing. They did move Bader over to right in Chicago for game 4, I'll give you that. But then he went right back to left and away we went with Miranda and Julien being the ones who were alternating their time sitting on the bench early in the season before their demotions as Larnach was DHing and Bader was playing mostly LF with Wallner in RF and Buxton in CF. Yes, they've moved him around some in the OF. But he's never been a "4th OFer." He's been a starting OFer from the beginning. Since opening day. "Starting" is a loose term around Twins land and that's why I said "most of the time" in the comment you originally responded to. And he's spent most of his time in left field. Like I said. It's not guessing anymore. We saw how the season started. It was with Julien on the bench and then Julien and Miranda alternating while Bader got consistent time. We've seen how the season has played out. It's been with Bader playing most of the time in left field. Just like I said before the season and like I'm saying now. But he's been surprisingly good with the bat so it's been a good thing. I hope he keeps it up. But he was clear in that interview during the offseason he came here to play a lot. Rocco was clear in spring that Bader was here to play a lot of left field. And it's played out that way. I'm not sure what you're arguing with. That's how it's played out.

He is eligible to come off the 60-day at the end of this month. He doesn't need to wait until then to start a rehab assignment. He has 20 days of rehab assignment eligibility. I believe he's eligible to come off the list on the 25th or somewhere around there. So, technically, he is eligible to start rehab now. But he's not likely to start it now. But let's go with your July 18th date. That's roughly a month. A month and a week I suppose. But 2 months from now is touching mid-August. That has never been the timeline. The Twins site says "late June." He was hurt end of April. It's a 6-8 week period before it heals. We're at 6 weeks. So, another couple weeks for healing and then it's rehab. He should be healed before the end of the month and can begin a rehab assignment before his IL stint is up. Let's say it takes the full 8 weeks and he's healed on the 26th. That leaves over 2 weeks of games before the break for rehab. So I'll stick with my month being a pretty reasonable estimate and 2 months being too long.

Keaschall better be back sooner than that. 1 month. It's a broken bone he's already missed 6+ weeks for. Should be healed in a couple weeks, right? Then another 2 weeks of rehab maybe? If he's not back in a Twins uni in a month it's because Clemens is making a case for breakout player of the year or we're probably pretty cranky with the Twins. And I really hope there aren't too many pinch hitting/platoon opportunities for him because he's starting games. I don't want Keaschall on the bench. He's got too much potential for that.

I'm going off direct quotes from him and Rocco. If you want to call that "guessing," then sure, I'm "guessing." This team plays people all over. So that's always the assumption. But Rocco was directly quoted as saying he was going to play left field. "We're going to get him a lot of work in left field." If you want to say I'm guessing after that quote, sure, I'm guessing. But we're all just guessing on here on almost everything. https://www.mlb.com/video/harrison-bader-on-joining-the-twins Listen for yourself and tell me if you think this sounds like a guy who was expecting anything other than significant playing time no matter what the health of this team was. Reynolds directly asks him what the conversations were that landed him here. He directly asks him about injuries, chances to play, platoons. Bader tells him the biggest thing is he wants to play and be on the field as much as possible. You're guessing far more than I am. But whatever. Read that quote and hear that interview however you want.

Jonah Bride career against lefties: .201/.298/.237/.535 Jonah Bride 2025 against lefties: .222/.294/.244/.539 I mean, sure, better than Larnach. But let's still not put Jonah Bride in a game to hit against lefties. If we can't find somebody who hits better against lefties than either of those guys what are we even doing? As for Bader, he said when he was signed he was coming here because he was getting an opportunity to play. Often. He was signed to play often and he's going to continue to play often. Maybe not every day, but he's never been a strict 4th outfielder and he isn't going to be one now. He's going to continue to play the majority of the time no matter what the health of the team looks like. He's the "most of the time" left fielder for this team. Has been since the day he signed. The only questions were if he'd stay healthy and hit enough to deserve a corner outfield spot. So far it's career years for both questions. Let's hope it continues.

The Twins prove that last part every offseason.

Interesting stuff. It's what I was hoping/kind of expecting them to do with Varland this year. Maybe it's something they'll do with him in the future once they've proved the hypothesis in the minors. Being able to have even 1 guy who could do this in the majors would be huge. Giving the rest of the pen a day off every 4 days would definitely be worth a pen spot. The challenge then becomes what happens when that guy doesn't have it on one of his days and only gets you 1 inning? Probably not the end of the world most of the time. But can be a real killer depending on what the games around it are like. The other challenge is simply being able to have that many guys who can go that many innings effectively. I'd guess the idea is to be able to be fluid. Train everyone to be as effective as possible in the role that best suits them and be able to adjust as needed. You need to have a really good AAA pitching staff, though.

I don't disagree with any of that. I just prefer ceiling in prospects. It's why I was never as high on Lee as so many others. Even the "high floor" guys have a low probability of being successful major leaguers. It's just the nature of the beast. And difference makers are needed to win in the playoffs. So ceiling is the first thing I look at. Then it's proximity to the majors. But any major leaguer you can produce out of your system (whether you drafted them, signed them, claimed them, traded for them, however you acquired them) has value. Lots of value. I wasn't trying to say Morris has no value and could've worded things differently. But, like you said, Morris isn't likely at all to be more than a mid to back end guy. That is very valuable. But not in the same universe as a front end guy. The other 3 all have top of the rotation type stuff. The chances of them actually reaching that lofty potential is incredibly small. Again, just the nature of the beast. But if your 100th percentile outcome is #1 starter then you can miss that and still end up a Morris. If Morris' 100th percentile outcome is #3 starter and he misses by too much he's fighting for a pen spot or an MLB career at all. The other 3 may never even reach AAA (Prielipp should be there pretty darn soon, though). But I just prefer ceiling. I'll take the extra risk of them being farther away for the added reward of them potentially being org changing arms. This is what makes these discussions so interesting to me. So many ways to look at these guys. And so many ways to prioritize them. Organizations need to take it all into account and it can really effect how teams are built.

Prielipp is the closest with #1 potential so he'd be my #1 ranked. I don't know if he'll be able to stay healthy, but I don't know that he won't be able to. He's been healthy this year so I'll say the 2 surgeries worked and he's good moving forward. After that it'd be Hill and Soto 2A and 2B. Both have really nice ceilings but are really far away. Hard to separate them at this point. I don't see it with Morris so he's not even close to these other guys. Not in the same universe when it comes to ceiling as far as I can see.

Kwan developed more power last year by looking to drive balls on the inner third to the pull side early in the count. Can certainly be the same sort of approach Eeles takes. I certainly don't mean to say he has no power at all, just that I don't think people should expect him to be a 15-20 HR guy like his 8 HRs in 260 PAs suggest he may be. Kwan hit 14 last year, though. And he's at 5 already this year. I'd be over the moon if Eeles can get there. Following the Kwan trajectory and being more BA/OBP with a .380-.400 (or even a little lower) slug to start and working his way up to more of a .420-.440 slug would be an incredible outcome for him. I love him and how he plays the game. There's no one in the Twins system I'm cheering for more (outside of Jenkins because he has team ceiling lifting talent). And I think he has a real shot at reaching the bigs. I just don't see the ceiling on his power being that high. But I've been wrong many, many times before. And would be more than happy to add this to that ever-growing list.

Festa's problem getting deeper into games this year is a combination of being inefficient, the offense providing him no wiggle room, and him struggling in the 5th. He's been taken out earlier this year because he's been in close games and is allowing a bunch of base runners in the 5th as he gets back into the heart of the order a 3rd time. The first 2 times he was pulled with multiple runners on and a lefty coming up and Coulombe got him out of the jam (Tigers and Mets games). The 3rd time he got pulled and Sands and the defense let him down and bit and didn't get him out of the jam (White Sox game). Festa needs to be more efficient with his pitch counts. The offense needs to score him some runs. And if/when those things happen, Rocco needs to give him some extra leash to get into the lineup a 3rd time and build that experience. Festa was given a shot to go out and get through 5 in each of his first 3 starts this year but he imploded. Well, he was at least given the chance to start the 5th, I guess I can't say for sure how long the leash was. If you go look at the actual context of the games when he was removed, I think pretty reasonable arguments can be made for pulling him in all of them. With the Mets game being pretty obvious, in my opinion. Top 5, 1-0 Twins lead and Festa gives up leadoff single followed by 2 deep lineouts. Top of the order gets a single and a throwing error leads to a game tying run and the go ahead run being on third base. 2 hole hitter with massive L/R splits coming up. With 2 outs and only at 64 pitches I could go either way on this one. Not crazy to take him out and go with the lefty reliever to improve your chances at keeping the game tied there. Not crazy to keep him in and see if he can get the last out and get you deeper in the game. Top 5, 0-0 game Festa gives up leadoff single followed by another single, gets a strikeout and then hits a guy. Festa is now at 76 pitches. The next batter up is some guy named Juan Soto and Danny Coulombe is warm in the pen. Is taking Festa out there "training wheels" or the smart decision to bring in your veteran lefty with a 0.00 ERA to face a first ballot Hall of Fame lefty hitter? Coulombe got Soto to hit into an inning ending double play, for the record. Top 5, 2-0 Twins lead and Festa walks the leadoff hitter, then gives up a single and is pulled. Sands and the defense have a rough inning and it's 3-2 Sox by the end of it. Festa was at 84 pitches at this point and was pulled as the top of the order was coming back up. This is the one that fits the "training wheels" argument best, probably. No real chance at all to see the top of the order, but the argument for pulling him is that it took him 84 pitches to get through 4 innings and 2 batters. You need to be more efficient than that. Especially against a team like the White Sox. But a team like the White Sox is also the kind of team you'd like to see a young guy get a little more leash on. So, this one I think could probably go either way as well. If I'm the manager, I leave him in in the Tigers game and let him face Carpenter. It was April 11th so he wasn't going to be throwing 100 pitches that day or anything, but 64 isn't a lot and it's a growth opportunity. It's a chance for me to show faith in my young pitcher. With 2 outs I give the kid a shot. The Mets is an obvious pull to me. The White Sox game was a bit of a tossup, but I probably pull him there after the first 2 guys get on. He likely isn't getting through that inning anyways so going to one of my top pen arms for the leadoff man and letting him cleanup the mess makes sense. But I think there's reasonable arguments for both sides here and saying that Festa isn't getting through 5 because the Twins have "training wheels" on him is ignoring a lot of the context on why he's been pulled.

His "power" and K% are the things I'm most interested in following. I don't mean to be rude by putting power in quotes, but he isn't a real power hitter. That's the AAA environment playing tricks on us. His batted ball data doesn't come close to suggesting a .500 slug hitter. I think his best comp offensively is Steven Kwan. Not that I'd predict Eeles can put up OPS+ numbers in the upper 120s or wRC+ numbers in the low 130s, but that type of hitter. So, a poor man's Steven Kwan. (I don't predict many people will put up those kinds of numbers as that's well above average offensive production so that's no huge statement on my part) So, I'm looking for him to get that slug back to .500 even though he isn't actually somebody who hits the ball super hard, super often and I'd like to see him get the K% at or under 10%. Technically, it is right now, but I think you understand I'm talking about over a larger sample size. Kwan in AAA at age 23 had a .311/.398/.505/.903 quad slash with a 11.7% walk rate and 6.7% K rate in 120 PAs. He was in the majors the next year. Eeles at 24 last year had a .299/.419/.500/.919 quad slash with a 12.7% walk rate and 14.6% K rate in 260 PAs. Eeles' avg exit velo in AAA last year was 86.6 with a max of 107. Hard hit rate of 28.2%. Kwan's career average exit velo is 85.8 with a max of 107.1 and a hard hit rate of 21.1%. Now they took very different paths to get to those points. Kwan was a 5th round pick out of a national championship D1 program where he starred with our good buddy Trevor Larnach and some dude named Rutschman I think a few people have heard of. Eeles, as we know, was undrafted after playing only 1 season at a major D1 program. Oh, and he's really short. Although, to be fair, Kwan isn't exactly Carson McCusker out there. Another reason I think it's a solid comp. It isn't easy for an undrafted guy out of indy ball to make the majors. And Eeles isn't likely to do it this year with the Twins. But if he can put up the numbers he did last year for a couple months, I'm going to start claiming he can be a poor man's Kwan and the Twins are missing the boat by not giving him a chance if their offense is continuing to struggle. The odds are stacked against him, but I'd like to see him reproduce what he did last year with a lowered K rate and get a shot. Whether it's here or somewhere else. But now it's up to Payton to do his thing and give the Twins a reason to believe. Julien, Fitzgerald, Camargo, Keirsey, Gasper, Miranda, McCusker, and eventually Martin are on the same field as him. Make it undeniable who the best player is. Start with Julien since you play the same position. Come mid-August (I think a much more realistic timeline than "soon") when the Twins are looking for a 2B because of injuries and they're making a call across town don't leave any doubt. Make it a silly question when Falvey asks Gardy if that Eeles kid is worth a shot over Julien. Because if it's close Julien and his 40-man spot is getting the nod.

Soon? No. There's a near 0 chance he makes his major league debut "soon." I'd even put his chance of debuting this year under 10%. Keaschall will be back soon-ish. Miranda and Julien are still on the 40-man and won't be DFA'd lightly. Bride won't be DFA'd lightly. Clemens isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Fitzgerald is likely trusted far more with the glove at SS so he'd have the edge if a SS is needed. Gasper looks like he's being setup to be the 3rd catcher on the 40-man so he's not getting DFA'd. McCusker, Camargo, and Keirsey are probably the 3 most likely DFA candidates on the 40-man when it comes to position players. Keirsey provides the same kind of speed as Eeles so they wouldn't DFA him for a pinch runner so that isn't Eeles' path. McCusker provides more of a bat so that isn't a path. Camargo is a catcher so that's kind of a different thing. He can provide the roster spot but they aren't fighting for the same opportunity. I don't think the Twins truly want Eeles playing short in the majors. Or 3rd. He's likely limited to 2B and LF in the majors. Those are pretty easy to fill spots. I love Eeles. He was my favorite player to watch in the minors last year. He's a gamer and plays hard. But his chances of getting to the majors this year are small. Being hurt when Keaschall got the call and when Clemens was acquired likely took away nearly his entire chance. There are just too many bodies in front of him now. He's not a high enough prospect for them to clear the way for him. I love Eeles. I really want to see him in the majors. I really want to see him and McCusker hit back-to-back in a major league lineup at least once. But the odds of Eeles jumping everyone in front of him and the Twins DFAing someone to give him a shot after the right combination of people are hurt or playing so poorly the Twins move on from them are sadly very low.

8 million is top 10 catcher money. Defensive catchers are incredibly easy to find. For 4 million or less. Austin Hedges, Tom Murphy, Jose Trevino, Elias Diaz, the list goes on and on. Finding veteran, glove only catchers is incredibly easy and cheap. Maldonado himself made 5 million 1 year. That was the most he ever made in a season.

The Twins have the 4th best batting average with runners in scoring position in major league baseball. They've actually been very good with runners in scoring position. Their problem is getting guys in scoring position. They're 21st in baseball in plate appearances with runners in scoring position.

Recently is the key word here. Again, Griffin Jax gave up 2 runs. 2. In the entire month of May. 14 appearances. You just choose to ignore the 12 scoreless outings and only pop up for the 2 where he gave up singular runs and say "see, he's struggling!" You don't have to take away a few bad outings. Nobody is asking you to do that. We fully acknowledge his blowup games. He had 2 of them. Back to back. What we are saying is that those weren't recent. Your use of the present tense when speaking about him actively struggling is what we disagree with. His ERA since those games? 2.25. 1.32 FIP. 35 Ks in 20 innings. Yes, he gave up a 2 run homer yesterday. It's a bummer. His blowup games were nearly 2 months ago. It's time to get over them. He isn't struggling. He just isn't completely perfect.

Tyler Heineman is nearly 34 years old and has played for 10 different organizations. The Toronto Blue Jays did not develop Tyler Heineman. How early did you "look at Heineman?" 2012-2016 when he was developing in Houston's system? 2017-2018 when he was developing in Milwaukee's system? Or any time since then when he's bounced around between Arizona, Miami, San Fran, Philly, St Louis, Toronto, Pittsburgh, Toronto again, Boston, and back to Toronto? That stat line comes in a whopping 59 plate appearances. It is quite impressive. For 59 plate appearances. But the likelihood of him sustaining anywhere near those numbers is awfully low. Good for him and Toronto if he does, though. Good for Popkins, too. He's getting a little redemption this year against everyone who says it was him and his philosophy that ruined the Twins hitters. But back to the Heineman point. Toronto didn't develop him. He'd already played in the majors for 2 teams before Toronto ever signed him. And he's played for 2 others in between stints with the Blue Jays. He's having an incredible start to the season, but he isn't proof of any great Toronto catcher development system. He was 31 years old before he joined their organization. And they let him walk away twice. He's just a journeyman veteran catcher on a 59 PA heater.

Winans is 29 and has 8 MLB starts. He has nearly 300 innings at AAA and is in his third straight year of dominating that level. Teams don't seem to see "it" with him. He's given up 51 hits in 40 innings pitched along with 12 walks allowed and two hit batters. He has a 7.20 ERA in the majors. He's a soft tossing righty (his fastball barely touches 90). That's a tough profile for major league success in this day and age. He's essentially a softer throwing Randy Dobnak. He's "ready for the MLB" in the same way Randy and the rest of the 29+ year old borderline MLB talent in AAA is "ready for the MLB."

Or year 2.