chpettit19

Murphy's first 4 seasons look pretty comparable to Realmuto's. Realmuto got traded with only 1 year of control left (if I'm remembering correctly). He brought back the Phillies starting catcher (Jorge Alfaro) who'd been with the team for part of 3 years like Jeffers has been with the Twins. But Alfaro was significantly better than Jeffers has been. They also got the Phillies #1 prospect (Sixto Sanchez) who was also a top 20 global prospect at the time. The last piece was a toss in flier arm in Low-A (Will Stewart). With the extra control the Twins would get they'd have to at least match this level of deal. So 1 young MLB starter (Arraez?), an elite prospect (Lewis or Lee?), and a flier arm (Raya or Medina? these types of fliers are hard to predict), plus probably another flier prospect since Lewis and Lee aren't as valuable as Sixto was back then. Do we think that's worth it? Arraez, Lewis, Medina, Flier A ball player for Murphy is probably what it takes.

Just for the sake of information here are the usage percentage of pitches for Duran compared to the big name starters and ERA leaders in baseball from 2022: Duran: FB 50%, curve 31%, splinker 16%, slider 3% Verlander: FB 51, slider 28, curve 19, change 2 Scherzer: FB 45, slider 23, change, 12, curve 9, cutter 9 Kershaw: Slider 42, FB, 40, curve 16 deGrom: FB 48, slider 39, change 8, curve 4 Cole: FB 51, slider 23, curve 12, change 8, cutter 6 Alcantara: FB 50, change 28, slider 22 Urias: Fb 49, curve 34, change 17 Cease: slider 43, FB 41, curve 14, change 2 Manoah: FB 61, slider 27, change 11 Ohtani: slider 39, FB 31, change 12, cutter 9, curve 8

Aaron Nola probably wants to talk to you. Depending on your definition of ace there's some question as to whether or not he is one, but he sure pitched like one this year. 3.25 ERA with 235 Ks in 205 innings is awfully ace like. Zack Wheeler isn't as amped to talk to you because he missed some time and only got in 153 innings over 26 starts, but he feels as if his 163 Ks to go along with a 2.82 ERA say he was pretty ace like this year as well.

I voted for Fireman Reliever, but my real answer is in the middle. I'd use him for multiple innings and stretch his innings number out with the idea of possibly putting him into the 2024 rotation when Gray and/or Mahle are gone. I'd tell him to watch every Verlander start for the last 10 years and get really comfortable in his mind with the idea of starting the game throwing 93-94 and ending the 7th throwing 100. But now that we're getting some new medical people in the building I'd also have them do the deepest of dives into his previous medicals and see what they think about it all. Duran runs the risk of getting injured in the pen, too. Let's not pretend he's safe throwing 103 out of the pen and still isn't risking a blown out UCL every time he unleashes a ball towards the plate.

Will be interesting to see how this changes the game and team over the next few years. I wouldn't expect the Twins to go out and reshape a bunch of the roster this offseason for these changes, but over the next few years it wouldn't be surprising to see a balancing of the roster to include more guys who can take a base here and there.

Oh, I'm sorry. I should have known that you responding to my post (no, you didn't quote me, but you clearly responded to my question about cheering for Correa) and having a different, very strongly worded, view wasn't you combatting my view. That's my mistake. I guess we're only allowed to repeat ourselves if we're going on moral superiority rants about how we care about more than winning ballgames because we watched the Twins teams in the 60s and didn't just hear about them. These are good notes and I'll be sure to keep them in mind for next time.

But playing in the IF doesn't save him from injury. That's the point. Just as many injuries happen to IFers as they do to OFers. That's the entire point here that you're simply ignoring. 3B going full bore had 1 fewer injuries in that study than CFers going full bore. You can say "context" all you want, but that's a full season's worth of data. It includes all your context. SS had 10 fewer injuries in a full season. My point is you have no basis or data or anything to support the idea that putting Lewis in the IF will keep him from being hurt. Pretty sure Lewis going "full bore" into the hole to backhand a ball and plant that recently injured right knee, put almost all his weight on it, and then twist it to throw back across the field puts just as much strain on that knee as he got jumping into the wall. And, for the record, I'm not suggesting them tell Buxton or Lewis to tone it down. And the Twins didn't tell Buxton to tone it down. They lined him up deeper in CF and taught him how to go into the wall safer. And now he's not getting hurt running into the wall. Or playing CF. Another fact you're ignoring. I'm more than willing to listen to reasoning when it comes to moving Buxton to a corner or Lewis to the IF. It's why my very first comment was a question asking if there was data showing it was safer. There wasn't. So why would we move guys off more important defensive positions when there's no reason to believe they're more likely to get hurt playing CF? The data we've been provided has a ton of gaps and isn't really that good. 86 CFers going on the IL doesn't mean anything if you don't know how the injuries occur. But you haven't provided any reason to believe playing CF is more dangerous. You're convinced it is and that's fine. I'd like a team to have actual info before they talk about moving Buxton out of center. I'd love to see any studies you can provide that suggest CFers are more apt to get hurt, though. I know, I know, me and my silly need for actual data and not just feelings.

That's where I tend to lean as well. It'd be great to have someone like Contreras, but $20M a year for him into his mid 30s seems like a far riskier investment than investing in a SS. A 115 OPS+ isn't good enough for a DH or 1B that's paid $20M a year so even if his hitting doesn't decline at all into his mid-30s (which we know it will) he's still not good enough to be worth that price if he's not catching. I'd much rather have a Correa type move to 3B and OPS+ 115 as they decline than have a DH or 1B OPS+ing 100 or below and that's likely what happens with Contreras in the next few years.

I'm guessing Contreras is looking for close to Realmuto's deal. JT got 5/115. Does Contreras want 5/100? Is it smart to pay a catcher 20 a year for his age 31-36 seasons? Realmuto is proving to be worth his deal this year. So maybe Contreras at a similar price point is a good deal. I don't know that I love it, but will be interesting to see what his market looks like and what he gets this offseason.

I mean you're not explaining anything that has anything at all to do with players getting hurt more by playing CF. Why does Buxton getting a better jump than Siri make him more likely to run into something? Why does Buxton having a more efficient route pattern than Straw make him more likely to run into something? If Buxton is hurting himself because he refuses to not catch a ball (he's not, by the way, since he's not getting hurt by running into things) he needs to be smarter about not running into things and allowing a single or double by letting the ball hit the wall. Buxton being elite in CF doesn't lead to injuries. There's no reason to think it does. Especially since he isn't getting hurt playing CF! Like you're connecting injuries he suffered away from CF to playing CF. I understand your news flash, but it doesn't disprove the point. The fact that Buxton was hurt all year by injuries that didn't take place in CF doesn't help your point. In fact it directly refutes it. I can get beyond stats. The problem I have is that you're not using any sort of real stat or information. You're just saying "I think CF is dangerous!" That's not convincing. First you said Lewis was in more danger in CF than he'd be in the IF. I showed you that the numbers said that wasn't true. Then you said there's not enough CFers like Lewis and Buxton (Lewis isn't elite by the way so that kind of shoots your own point down right from the start) and I showed you that there's plenty of uber athletic CFers in the game. So now you've changed your story to Buxton getting too good of jumps and having too good of route patterns and that is why he gets hurt. I don't see the logic in that in any way, shape, or form. "He's too good at center field so he's always hurt" isn't an argument. Why wasn't Hunter always hurt? He was elite. Why wasn't Andruw Jones always hurt? He was maybe the best CFer ever. Kirby? Jim Edmonds? Willie Mays? Kenny Lofton? Steve Finley? Bernie Williams? Griffey (before he turned 31)? Why weren't those guys all hurt all the time? They were pretty elite CFers. Torii got great jumps and ran super efficient routes and ran into the wall all the time. He just wasn't fast enough?

Except Buxton's injuries haven't been collision injuries. His knee and hip issues this year weren't collision issues. His hip the year before also wasn't a collision issue. Getting hit by a pitch or fouling one off himself aren't OF collision issues. You make it sound like most CFers are slow, plodding runners who have no chance to run into someone or the wall at high speed. That simply isn't true. And here's a chart that proves it. Buxton is at 29.1 ft/s, by the way. So he's not even at the elite end of that chart separating himself from the pack. He was the 25th fastest CFer in baseball this year.

And I'd argue it'd only be begrudgingly for the first year or so. Or even just until his first walk-off bomb. May not even last a whole year. If he signs a 9 or 10 year deal there they aren't begrudging him for that whole deal. Especially if they win a title in 2023. All is forgiven and he's one of them. If he performs at a star level and wins multiple titles during his deal there he'd become an all-time Dodger great and be beloved. Not for 100% of fans, but for the vast majority of them.

I don't remember that, but I'd think that the Dodgers shunning Bauer may have changed that equation for him. I have no idea, but I'd think Bauer not playing for them since that story came to light may mean something to Correa, or any other FA. Certainly and interesting piece to the puzzle, though.

According to the data in the first article Fire linked to CF had 86 injuries. SS had 76. 3B had 85. I think this storyline of Lewis being so much more likely to be hurt by being in CF isn't very fact based.

I'm impressed you were able to see a Twins player hit a homerun or make a great play at short and not cheer. That takes a lot. But did you stop watching or listening to or following Twins games? Will all those hardcore Dodger fans you know stop going to games, watching games, and buying merch? Will they stop clicking on Dodger related media? I think we all know the answer is "no" for 99.9% of them. So the FO doesn't care. Not even a little. And that's the point I'm combatting. Fans cheer for laundry. Even if the fans are just "putting up with" having Correa on the team they'll still show up, they'll still watch, they'll still spend their money. And if Correa has a great postseason on the way to a title it'll go from the most unbelievable, thunderous boos ever booed to the most unbelievable, thunderous cheers ever cheered. The FO doesn't care if fans just "put up with it." That's the point. The idea that the Dodgers wouldn't sign Correa cuz he's booed is not based in reality. You're more than entitled to feel however you want about Correa or anyone else you feel didn't act appropriately. I'm not going to get into a moral stance argument over baseball players. That's not the point. This article is about the Dodgers being interested in signing Carlos Correa. Some commenters have said the Dodgers would never do it because their fans hate him. My stance is that the Dodgers don't care. All they care about is putting the best team on the field they can because winning cures all in fandom. Not for 100% of fans, clearly. But for enough. And that's all they care about. The argument that the FO cares that he's booed and hated is wrong. Him cheating being the cause of the boos doesn't change the equation for the FO. They just want the best players because the fans will turn up and spend their money on the team if they win. End of story.

Yeah, fans of the current team don't care about history, they care about the current team. I assume your strong stance on Correa and those cheating Astros means you didn't cheer for Correa once this year, nor did you cheer for Marwin Gonzalez a single time during his 2 years with the team. If that isn't the case then I'm not far off at all, and am, in fact, directly on. The point I'm combatting is that teams won't sign, or trade for, a player because their fans don't like them. It's false, and has been proven so hundreds, if not thousands, of times over the years. The FO doesn't care about the fans booing Correa and will sign him if they think that's their best move to help the team win. Those fans booed all those other players and then they cheered for them. Just like Yankees fans booed Johnny Damon until he was wearing pinstripes. Just like Yanks fans booed Josh Donaldson until he was wearing pinstripes. Fan's memories are incredibly short, and the cheating doesn't change the situation at all. The Dodgers will attempt to sign Carlos Correa whether the fans have booed him or not if they believe he gives them the best chance to win. And while they're winning the fans will cheer for him.

It's certainly an interesting discussion. I know there's a lot of resources being put into injury research in general, but I'm not sure what the Twins are doing along these lines. I don't see anything in these types of articles that would lead me to believe CF is more dangerous than LF or RF. Certainly not enough to move a platinum glove CFer to a corner thinking that'd give us a significant increase in Buxton games. If it would I'd hope they'd do it, but his injuries don't tend to be things I think being in a corner would prevent anyways.

Was there reasoning given on why players would be at higher risk in CF than the corners?

I bet those fans booed Mookie Betts and David Price for when they beat them in 2018, too. Probably booed Scherzer and Turner for when they knocked them out in 2019, too. Decent chance they weren't big Freddie Freeman fans after his Braves beat them in 2021 either.

Hasn't Turner made statements about being willing to stay with the Dodgers, but also very much being interested in getting back to the east coast? I believe every story about the Dodgers being interested in stars. Especially with so much money coming off their books this year. They want Judge. They want Correa. They want Turner. They want all of them. The question is how they prioritize them. I've also seen reports that Judge is their #1 target (Mookie moving to 2B is interesting there). Maybe Correa is their #2. I have no reason to think he wouldn't be since those are the 2 best players on the market. Fan boos isn't something the FO cares about, and the clubhouse won't care either as long as he performs. Kenta was on that Dodgers team, do we think he was enraged that the Twins signed Correa? That was 2017. Bellinger (maybe, he may get non-tendered), Turner, and Taylor are the only position players left on the Dodgers for 2023. Kershaw (I'm assuming he stays), Urias, and Buehler are the only pitchers left. That's a max of 6 guys left from that team. This narrative that they wouldn't sign him cuz of 2017 is complete nonsense to me.

Interesting discussion topic, thanks for starting it. To me, even as an analytics nerd, it's really simple to know where your weakness is (scoring vs preventing runs): how do you compare against the league as a whole when it comes to how many runs you score and how many runs you allow. Simple and easy. Runs scored/game and runs allowed/game. Year- Runs per game/League Avg/% better or worse - runs allowed per game/league avg/% better or worse 2016- 4.46/4.47/<1% worse - 5.49/4.47/23% worse 2017- 5.03/4.65/8% better - 4.86/4.64/5% worse 2018- 4.55/4.45/2% better - 4.78/4.45/3% worse 2019- 5.80/4.83/20% better - 4.65/4.83/4% better 2020- 4.48/4.64/3% worse - 3.58/4.64/23% better 2021- 4.50/4.53/1% worse - 5.15/4.53/14% worse 2022- 4.30/4.28/<1% better - 4.22/4.28/1% better Make what you will of that info. Things that stand out to me are that while the offense was obviously great in 2019, the pitching wasn't brutal by any means. 2020 would be a fun pitching line to have more often. Did Rowson have some sort of special connection with Twins players? His years (17-19) were the best they had, but his Marlins teams have been brutally bad offensively. 2021 was such a disaster. 2022 was basically a league average team on both sides of the ball with the pitching actually being slightly better than the offense. But both sides of the ball clearly need to improve.

I agree things aren't what they need to be with the offense. My point is simply that Rowson hasn't done anything at all in Miami and 2019 was clearly an outlier so it really comes far more down to talent/players performing than anything. Maybe Rowson delivers his message in a way that the 2017-19 Twins processed well and the 2020-22 Marlins don't. Maybe he has a different strategy than the current coaches. I'd bet a lot that the current staff preaches a lot of the same stuff Rowson did since I don't think Rocco and the FO would hire someone with a drastically different approach to them. I don't know where the disconnect is, but certainly agree something needs to change. I also think the talent level needs to change as well. They need to get better hitters.

Rowson is an interesting situation to look at. Here's some numbers. Twins runs scored per game since 2014 (3 years before Rowson arrived, his 3 seasons, and 3 seasons since he left): 2014- 4.41 (league average 4.06- 8% better than average) 2015- 4.29 (4.25- 1% better) 2016- 4.46 (4.47- <1% worse) Rowson Joins Staff 2017- 5.03 (4.65- 8% better) 2018- 4.55 (4.45- 2% better) 2019- 5.80 (4.83- 20% better) Rowson Leaves 2020- 4.48 (4.64- 3% worse) 2021- 4.50 (4.53- 1% worse) 2022- 4.30 (4.28- <1% better) Marlins runs scored per game since 2014: 2014- 3.98 (4.06- 2% worse) 2015- 3.78 (4.25- 11% worse) 2016- 4.04 (4.47- 10% worse) 2017- 4.80 (4.65- 3% better) 2018- 3.64 (4.45- 18% worse) 2019- 3.80 (4.83- 21% worse) Rowson Joins Staff 2020- 4.38 (4.64- 6% worse) 2021- 3.84 (4.53- 15% worse) 2022- 3.62 (4.28- 15% worse) How comfortable do we feel giving Rowson credit for that 1 spike year?

I don't understand the point of the Polanco trade. There's FA relievers available to sign that doesn't cost the team a top 4 hitter in the Twins lineup. Just go sign a reliever. Sign Rodon. And trade for Rosario (I don't know that Cleveland would deal him in the division without a sizeable overpay, but I like the idea of bringing him in in general). What's the reason for swapping out Polanco to fill a hole you could just fill on the open market?

I'd guess they get the same out of him the the next 2-3 years, and a slow-ish decline after that. The years are far more of a concern to me than AAV. Can they get him for 4 or 5 years? I'd do that in a heartbeat to give the team a shot at a real ace while the majority of the team is on very cheap deals. If it takes 6 I'd be far more hesitant (and I think the Twins would refuse to go 6). If it's 7 years I'm flat out not signing him. But 4 or 5 years to me is an acceptable risk. Even if they lose a season to injury somewhere in there. To me every starting pitcher is a huge injury risk so I'm never willing to go more than 4 or 5 years on them. But the Twins find themselves in what I feel is a perfect storm for taking a chance on an Ace right now. Prospects coming to cover for injuries, and a ton of payroll space. If they're not going to do it now they'll never do it. They've set themselves up to be able to make a splash. Now's the time to do it, in my opinion.