chpettit19

I'm outside the norm on my expectations for both Lewis and Martin this year for sure. Miranda seems to clearly be the first guy they'll call up for any injury or poor performance at the major league level. No concern at all about him getting major league ABs this year. I expect Lewis to be ready almost immediately. I keep calling him this year's Baddoo, but in a Twins uniform. If they don't call Lewis up until the end of the year I'd consider this season a complete waste (assuming they're not competing like very few people think they will) and either Lewis is no longer a "real prospect" or the FO should be fired for mismanaging him/the roster. If they have to go into 2023 with huge questions on Lewis still this season would be a complete failure (again, unless they're making the playoffs). You can't hit next offseason with the exact same questions you hit this offseason with. He's either up for half the year or he's taking the Gordon route as a prospect. I think he's going to mash in whatever ST we get and continue from there in AA to start then the door is wide open in the Twins OF (or maybe SS?) for him. Behind Torkelson, Martin was my favorite hitter in the 2020 draft and I think he could hold his own against major league pitching today. My hope is the Twins development team got in his ear at the end of the year and gave him plans to revert the swing changes he'd made after his injury and get back to showing at least the same amount of pop he did in college. He can already get the bat to the ball better than most major leaguers and has a great eye. His only questions are defensive position and if he'll make the swing adjustments to get to more power. I expect him to be ready for the majors by June or July. And at that point I'm in the same boat as I am with Lewis in that you get him into the Twins lineup during a season you're likely not contending so you go into 2023 with basically no questions about your position players (beyond SS if Lewis isn't the answer and they don't sign or trade for a long-term guy).

Are we sure that bolded part is correct? From what I've seen the speculation that they're trying to trade prospects to acquire Berrios-esque pitching is just fans saying that's what they'd have to do to rebuild the rotation for 2022. There's news reports that they'd had conversations with teams about trades prior to the lockout and many talking heads also suggesting that's what's needed, but I haven't seen anything saying the Twins were doing anything more than seeing what the "big name" trade targets would cost. I don't think their plan is to trade for any of the As or Reds guys that people are talking about. I don't think they have any intention of trading for anyone with 1 or 2 years of control left. Much more likely it'd be a Maeda type deal for a guy with much more control if they're giving up a top 15 prospect or an Odo deal where they take a lesser name pitcher for a top 30 type prospect and hope they can turn him into more than he currently is. I will be absolutely shocked, and similarly confused, if they go after any As or Reds guys people are talking about. To me the strategy seems to clearly be building from within for the pitching. They've developed their pipeline to the point where guys are starting to be ready to make their ML debuts. I can't imagine they're then going to turn and blow that up for someone with no real control. Unless Pohlad has gone completely out of character and threatened their jobs if they don't make the playoffs this year. All the trade talk just seems to me to be fans hoping and dreaming on bigger name pitchers as that's what fits their definition of the FO trying to compete. I don't think the FO has the same idea of what trying to compete looks like when it comes to building their starting staff this year.

I'm definitely in the minority, but my preferred setup is a Martin-Buxton-Lewis OF over Lewis playing SS. SS is certainly still important, but hitters aren't going away from trying to lift the ball and get extra base hits anytime soon. That OF would likely be the best defensively in baseball and be able to take away a number of the hits most players are looking for. I'd prefer the Twins sign a long-term SS and move both Martin and Lewis to the OF now. Lewis would also be the perfect Buxton injury replacement if (when?) his bat becomes what we all hope (expect?). As for when we see Lewis in the majors I know there's people who think it's best, or at least likely, that he stays in the minors for much, if not all, of 2022. I think that's a disaster situation, especially if they go with a stopgap SS. If they sign a 1 year SS and Lewis isn't ready to spend legit time in the majors in 2022 they're in the same awful situation going into 2023. It's why I'm so strong on the sign Story bandwagon. Quit messing around with the SS position and take a big swing on Story. Let Martin and Lewis just be big time athletes in the OF with Buxton and let's go. Now if Lewis was looking like a legit SS at the alternate site and had a breakthrough defensively to where the Twins have no doubt he's a ML SS defensively maybe things are different, but I find that unlikely and would prefer they just get a guy they know can play the spot like Story. 2023 opening day IF of Miranda, Story, Polanco, and Kirilloff. 2023 opening day OF of Martin, Buxton, Lewis. Let's play ball.

Theilbar being left handed makes it even harder to be a multi-inning guy as he would be forced to face a number of righties during that time. Believe me I understand the difference. I like that you have just completely moved on from the Colome complaint. Josh Hader appearances-innings pitched during his major league career: 35-47.2, 55-81.1, 61-75.2, 21-19, 60-58.2. That's 5 years in the majors. 3 of which he pitched significantly more innings than he had appearances. He was a multi-inning reliever for more of his career than he wasn't. The point of Ryan's velo not mattering is that you suggested his velo matters as a reliever, but not as a starter. That is just flat out wrong. He throws his FB more than basically any starter in baseball and it's his most effective pitch and always has been. If his FB is effective as a starter throwing it as much as he does it will be effective as a reliever since his velo has never and will never be what makes it effective. I appreciate you disagree, but at this point I've disproven every argument you've attempted to make and (I think) very clearly stated why you're incorrect on certain things. I am not predicting Joe Ryan will be as good as Josh Hader. I'm suggesting I see that as the role I think he'll fill as I don't think he can stay as a starter even if I hope he proves me wrong. That's what I've suggested from the beginning and you've bounced all over the place trying to find footing for new arguments as I disprove each of them. I'm now going to respectfully end my side of this conversation. Go Twins! And I hope Ryan proves me wrong and becomes a number 2 starter for the Twins for the next 10 years.

This is a thread about Miranda so don't want to derail it with Story talk, but road numbers for Colorado players can be thrown out with the home numbers. Hitting in Colorado is easier, but hitting on the road is harder. The pitches they see move far more on the road so there's about a 3 game adjustment period. Signing guys from Colorado is more about scouting and being able to just say "this guy can put the bat on the ball frequently and with authority." Arenado had bad road numbers, too, but St Louis is more than happy with him. But I'm with you on all the Miranda stuff. He'll find his place with the Twins and if that's opening day great! If it's middle of April awesome! Mashes in AAA for a month and a half then mashes in MLB cool! It always works itself out. Better to start from a place of him being your extra security blanket than having someone like Tim Beckham be your only security blanket. I'm excited for the season to start and to see what he has. Hopefully those folks meeting in FL this week get stuff figured out and we can get this show on the road!

Why do the Twins need to move JD to sign Story? They're basically $40M under the payrolls they've had the last few years. There's plenty of room to sign Story and keep JD to start the year. There's no pitchers available worthy of taking up a large chunk of that $40M so Story makes the most sense as SS is just as big of a need as pitching. Don't let the Pohlads/FO off the hook by saying JD's contract is stopping them from doing anything. They have payroll space. But onto Miranda...as others have said, I'm not worried about finding him playing time this year. "Logjams" always seem to work themselves out due to injuries or slumping performance. They'll have plenty of opportunity to get him ABs in Minneapolis this year. I'm not an advocate of moving proven MLB talent to clear space for any prospect, ever. I'm a huge prospect nerd and love the hope they represent, but they're still just prospects. Injuries and poor performance open plenty of doors and the prospects can push out veterans when their chance arrives. I don't want the Twins using prospects as Plan A unless they absolutely have to. They're always Plan B because Plan B is always needed. If you have Miranda as Plan A and he turns back into the pumpkin he was until last year your Plan B is a career minor leaguer and you're in a real bad spot. Let him take a job throughout the year even if that means having to start in St Paul and wait for openings througout the year. And can we please stop with this "just put him in LF" idea? He played a few games out there and they immediately moved him back to the IF. Corner OF defense matters. Everyone is trying to lift and separate at the plate so why are we so willing to put slow footed, no defense guys in the places where players are trying to hit the ball? He's an infielder, leave him there. Versatility is good, but everyone who's bad at their primary defensive spot isn't versatile just because we move them around to be bad at other spots. Maybe if we just let some guys, like Miranda, stick at 1 spot they could improve. You want versatile guys on your team, but they don't all have to be moved around all the time. Put the kid at 3B in St Paul and tell him he's the heir apparent to JD. Let him go to work there and give him every chance to establish himself as the future Twins 3B. Moving Gordon around makes sense. It's his ticket to a big league roster. Moving Kirilloff and Miranda around doesn't make sense. They're (hopefully) your corner IF for the next 6-12 years. Put them in their places and let them work on perfecting them.

Boras doesn't scare me at all for draft picks. Their leverage isn't based on their agents so much as their other options. Kumar is pretty well out of other options if he plans on getting to the majors anytime soon so he can't demand an above slot bonus. Kumar is 22 already. Unless people think he's making it to the majors this year he won't debut until he's 23. Add his 6 years of team control (doesn't look like that's changing at all in the new CBA) and he's in a Twins uni until he's 29 at least. If he makes it to the bigs in his second professional season and is so good that Boras can do his mega-contract thing then the Twins got a ton out of him and even though it'd suck likely seeing another homegrown stud leave I'd be happy with what they'd gotten. The medicals are the only concern. If you can't get enough data to convince yourself the Mets were wrong in their decision then that's a hard spot to be in. Is there a guy you think you can get in the early second that you want to go over slot for and think you can get 2 big time talents by taking a risk on Rocker under slot? That's something I'd consider. Thinking Rocker is going to need TJ surgery wouldn't scare me away. I assume every drafted pitcher is going to need it at some point. Just means the Twins get him til he's 30 now. But if it's a shoulder thing I'd be much more careful in drafting him. I think his season in independent ball will answer a lot of questions. Generally speaking you take the best player available in the MLB draft without any real concern to position or organizational needs. Even more so if you've got a top 10 pick. Bonus demands and injury concerns need to be considered as well, but first and foremost is getting the best player you can with the highest ceiling. You take educated home run swings in the first round so if Rocker is the best player available at #8 take him unless you think his shoulder is about to explode and he'll never be the same.

Now you're completely moving the goalpost and arguing something completely different. I don't even know what your stance on Ryan is. All you've done to this point is disagree with my comparison between the role I see him playing and the role Hader had for the first 3 years of his career. I didn't even say he would be as good as Hader. Didn't say he has the same type of "stuff" as Hader. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove. What does him being a reliever vs a starter have to do with his FB being 91.3? The reason he can throw his FB so much as a starter isn't because of the velo so why would him being able to throw it as a reliever be because of the velo? His fastball works because of his release point being so low. It doesn't move like the hitter's eyes expect it to so they swing under it. Oh, and Caleb Thielbar threw 64 innings in 59 appearances last year. Which means he had to have thrown multiple innings multiple times. His average FB velo is 91.3. He had a 10.8 K/9 and 132 ERA+ last year. Go look at Colome's career sometime and tell me you wouldn't be happy with Ryan, or anyone, having that career. He has 155 career saves. I have no idea what point you're trying to prove, but you're not doing it. "I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed." I was clearly describing him as filling the type of role Hader has had for the majority of his career. You're more than welcome to disagree with that. But please provide some reasons why if you'd like to continue this discussion.

Hader has been a multi-inning reliever for more seasons of his career than he hasn't been. The reason he no longer is doesn't even really matter with the comparison I was clearly trying to make. The reason I question his ability to stay as a starter is that I question how well the fastball plays multiple times through an order. That's what I said in my original comment. A multi-inning reliever doesn't go through the order multiple times. In fact they rarely go through the order even once. Him failing as a starter in no ways means he couldn't pitch 2 innings out of the pen. I'm sorry that you see not being able to go multiple times through an order as the same thing as not being able to get 6 outs.

Good for him? What's your point? He's also never started a major league game and Ryan has already done that multiple times. I think the point of my statement was pretty clear. I wasn't predicting he has Hader's exact career, but was clearly comparing what I see as a possible future fit for him being as what Hader has spent over half his major league career doing. There's roughly 100000000000 variables that will play into exactly what his role looks like. The Brewers have developed 3 legit aces and have multiple shutdown arms in their pen now to the point where Hader no longer had to be the "do it all" reliever so his role changed. If the Twins suddenly have a Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff in their rotation and Hader and Williams in their pen I'd expect roles and pitcher usage would change. But I don't know anyone who's predicting the Twins to have 3 homegrown arms turn into Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff so I see the Twins using their pitchers differently than the Brewers currently do.

I think it's pretty well accepted that he needs to tone it down from what it was in 2019 if he wants a realistic chance of hitting ML pitching. I just read your comment as the Twins having been the ones that encouraged the leg kick. From the sounds of it they were kind of just letting him feel his way through 2019 and learn the lesson of needing to tone the leg kick down on his own. It was probably still too big in the AFL, but there's some solid side by side videos out there of him having been more in control during the AFL. Will be fun to see what it looks like coming out of his rehab. He's had a bunch of time to get it locked in during cage work and such as he gets rolling again over the last few months so I'm excited to see him again when MLB and MLBPA get their s*** figured out.

Royce added that leg kick himself, that wasn't a Twins coaching move. Royce has openly stated that he added that on his own. Will be very interesting to see what he looks like when games finally get going again and see if he's toned that kick down. I'd say Ober stepped up and performed well at the MLB level. But I'm also frustrated that we haven't really even seen any of the prospects make debuts beyond Ober and the newly acquired Ryan. I don't think it's fair to say drafting pitchers hasn't been a high priority with the Twins. I assume that take comes from them going with bats with their top 15 picks, but that doesn't equal it not being a high priority at all. I think the responses Law gave in the piece Tom is featuring here should be tempered by his comments on the system in his ranking of all the systems: "Farm systems change each year for two reasons: Teams add/let go of talent in the system, and the players in the system themselves improve or regress. The Twins’ system is the most likely of any team ranked in the bottom half to benefit from that second part because they have so many players who should be on the upswing and be more valuable in a year than they are now. They have a ton of players who need to get healthy and get on the field — highlighted by Royce Lewis — and a number of players who should see progress from working with the Twins’ player development department. But that doesn’t mean I could wishcast this into a top-half system just yet." That reads to me like he thinks the Twins system has a bunch of guys that have the chance to be very good if they could just get on the field.

I don't mind the idea of Walls as a possible SS, but I wouldn't give up anything of real value for him. I would even view Sano for Walls as selling very low on Sano. Walls is a fine player, but certainly no franchise SS and is probably best suited for a utility glove role. If they're sold on Royce being able to stick at SS I'd be happy with Walls being the bridge SS, but if Royce isn't that guy then I'd prefer they shoot much higher than Walls with whoever they're bringing in to play SS.

I have very little doubt that Ryan is a major leaguer, but I'm not sure he's a long-term starter. He feels like a righthanded Josh Hader to me. I see him coming out of the bullpen and being able to throw multiple innings or coming in and getting an important K when needed. No reason to make any kind of move to the pen yet, but that's where I see him ending up in the long run. Just think multiple times through the order and guys will get on top of that FB better and balls will be leaving the park too much to be a sustained starter for his career. But he deserves every chance to prove me wrong!

I'm confused by this idea that signing Story likely means a JD trade. There's no financial reason why the Twins would have to trade JD if they sign Story. There's nobody left on the pitching market who's going to cost massive amounts of money and they have plenty of payroll left before they even get close to what the payrolls have been the last few years. I actually agree with how you list their future positions, but I don't get why that'd mean they need to trade JD. He plays 3B and DHs this year as Miranda gets his feet wet at some point. Sano leaves after this season and JD is primary DH with some stints at 3B to give Miranda a day off here and there throughout 2023.

If the Twins trade the guy who may have the most upside of any of their pitching prospects and a guy who's probably top 3 in ceiling for their position player prospects for Taylor Walls I'll never watch another Twins game in my life. That would be an epic overpay.

It's been proven time and time again that home road splits for Colorado players don't mean anything. Arenado had some gnarly home road splits too, but I'm pretty sure St Louis is more than happy with his gold glove, 121 OPS+ performance for them last year. The home/road splits for Colorado players can basically be completely thrown out. It's easier to find hits in Colorado because there's so much extra OF grass, but it's harder to hit on the road when breaking balls move different. There's plenty of data to show that the first 3 games after playing in Colorado leads to worse hitting for every team (so teams who play a series in Col and then go to another place to play also hit worse the first few games as they adjust). Story is by no means a sure thing, but his home/road splits aren't the concern.

Why would anyone think the Twins would extend any pitcher they traded for? Unless that pitcher is willing to take a very team friendly deal I just don't see how anyone could think the Twins would extend them. They didn't extend Berrios and they didn't just pay for a FA. Why would we think they're going to trade legit prospects and then pay money to extend them when they wouldn't do it for Berrios or any of the FAs? There are no pitchers worthy of big money left on the market. Not signing Story more than likely means they just aren't going to spend to the same place they have been the last few years. They don't have enough openings to sign a bunch of guys and add them to the 40-man. The White Sox wouldn't risk Rodon accepting a 1 year, 18.4M qualifying offer so I don't know why other teams would be thinking he's worth that, or more, when the team who knows him the best and is trying to win a World Series wasn't willing to even give him the QA. Story is the only player left on the market that would make sense to spend on and is even remotely possible.

It wasn't a mistake at all. As bean points out it wasn't much of an extension at all really. What it was was cost certainty. They didn't have to play the guessing game with arbitration from year to year and knew exactly what his payroll number was going to be. Every team wants that, even if they end up spending a little more than arbitration would've cost them. There was (and oddly still is) hope that he'd be a higher average player than he is and if that'd have happened the deal would have been a steal. This is how it works. There's a risk/reward balance to all contracts. He's maybe underperformed his deal slightly, but it's not like he's making $20M a year or anything. I don't like judging contracts in hindsight. The thought process at the time was sound and the contract was more than reasonable. It's a good deal I'm sure many here complaining about it wish they would've been able to do with Berrios. They reached agreements with Polanco, Kepler, and Sano at roughly the same time. That group of deals has been very good for the team. They get 3 legit major league players for a more than reasonable cost with certainty that allowed them to spend more on someone like JD since they knew any of those 3 guys blowing up would've caused skyrocketing arbitration prices. That was good asset management.

Canterino looks like a top of the rotation guy if he can stay healthy. He's the guy I have the most hope for from a pitching ability view, but there's concern with every Rice pitcher who played for Wayne Graham. To the point that I question how he was ever able to get top arms to go there (to be fair he developed a large number of not highly recruited guys). He retired in 2018 so we can have hope that Canterino was saved from the full force of the Rice pitcher abuse, but who knows. Kid is legit if he stays healthy.

I know this is the time of year for these types of articles (Gleeman and Hayes just did one on The Athletic, too), but I don't get the point. The offseason isn't just not over, it's not even happening right now. There's a 0% chance this is the opening day roster.

Kepler has a career 18.4% K rate. League average is 22%. He was in the 62nd percentile for K rate last year. Ks aren't really his problem. Career 10.2% BB rate. League average is 8.4%. His problem is his BABIP. He doesn't get hits because he hits balls on the ground into the shift too often.

Agreed the Twins need to do everything they can to see if Duran can stick as a starter, but he feels like a reliever to me. And I don't see that as a bad thing. If he can go 2 innings at a time with his 100 MPH fastball and low 80s "splinker" he'd be a great weapon out of the bullpen. Teams are moving more and more towards building staffs of "out getters." The ideal is still having a staff full of deGrom, Scherzer, Bieber, and Buehler types, but those guys are special and not growing on trees. For teams who can't (won't?) spend 25+ million on a starter the strategy is to get a collection of guys who can get outs and figure out how many outs they can get on a regular basis. Is it once through the order? Twice? 1 inning? 100 pitches? what is their ability and what can their arm handle. It feels like the Twins will go this way a little more this year as they have so many arms on the 40-man who have no MLB experience and don't have great innings numbers after the last 2 years. The playoffs last year will give teams even more hope in this strategy. The 2 teams in the World Series both went pretty hard on the "out getters" strategy in the postseason (for various reasons).

I'd be more than happy with Royce taking the SS spot in Minneapolis for the next 10 years, but I have these images in my head of a Martin-Buxton-Lewis OF on opening day 2023 that takes away extra base hits all day, every day and I think I'd prefer a Story-Polanco MIF with that OF if signing Story is a real possibility. With the league going more and more to lifting the ball and looking for extra base hits I'd love an OF featuring 2 of the fastest guys in the game and another incredible athlete in LF. But those are all hopes and dreams at this point.

I think he was terribly mismanaged last year. First by the Blue Jays and then by whoever let him go to the Olympics and not throw a single pitch. After not throwing a competitive pitch in 2020 he should've started at high-A for the Blue Jays and taking 6 weeks off in the middle of the season to throw 0 competitive pitches and not even be around his developmental coaches was terrible. I look at him as basically a brand new prospect after these last 2 years. I don't know that I'd rank him significantly higher or lower than this on my list, but I'd view him as basically a new draftee/signee. His track record is completely wiped out for me after the last 2 years. Fresh start and let's see what he looks like this year.