chpettit19

Agree to disagree on Torres. You named a whole bunch of numbers from pre-2020 Torres. He has a 104 OPS+ since 2020. 4.9 total bWAR since then. Gleyber Torres is nowhere near the player you're trying to suggest he is. He was moved to 2B because he can't play SS. He had 2.7 fWAR in 2022. Gordon had 1.5. Torres has 4.3 fWAR since 2020. That's a 1.4 WAR player. Again, Gordon had 1.5 last year. And Gordon has 5 years of control left. Your OPS numbers are just factually incorrect. He's never had an OPS over 1.000 in any season. Never. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 3 minor league games in 2021 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .697 OPS in 127 games in the majors that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 for 7 games in low A in 2014 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .826 OPS in rookie and low A combined that year. Him having an OPS over 1.000 in 18 AFL games in 2016 isn't him having an OPS over 1.000 for that season. He had a .775 OPS that year in high A. He's also never had an OPS over .900 for a season. I mean you're flat out making stuff up. In 2018 he had a .903 OPS in 17 games between high A and AAA during a rehab stint. He had an OPS of .820 in 123 MLB games that year. Since 2019, both of their career years, Max Kepler has more bWAR, and is only 6 points of OPS+ lower than Torres. Kepler had 2.0 fWAR last year. He's had 5.4 since 2020. That's 1.8 per season. And people are screaming that he needs to get traded cuz he's basically useless on a playoff hopeful team. He's been better than Torres for the last 3 years. So, yeah, I'm going to stick with Torres not being any sort of star, and Lopez not being all that expensive of a commodity.

Multiple reports that there was a deal the Yankees turned down at the deadline last year. It was Gleyber Torres and Oswaldo Cabrera for Pablo Lopez and Miguel Rojas. Cabrera is an ok, not great prospect who was MLB ready. Rojas was just traded for Jacob Amaya. Amaya is an ok, not great prospect who is ready. So the Marlins felt Lopez was worth Gleyber Torres. The Yankees thought Lopez was worth less than Gleyber Torres. Gleyber Torres may be a "big name" because he played in NY, but he's not some star. Torres had a 114 OPS+ last year. Nick Gordon was at 113. Pablo Lopez then went on to have an ERA of 4.61 in August and 4.24 in September. He's now got less team control than he did at the deadline, and Gordon has much more than Torres. I don't get why people think Lopez is some high priced commodity. He's not.

Ok? I mean I literally gave you the stats. League average for a runner on 3B with less than 2 outs scoring was 50.9% last year. The Twins scored them 52.6% of the time. Only 8 MLB teams scored them at a higher rate than the Twins. Your eye test is emotional. Them not scoring those guys is frustrating. So your brain logs those frustrations and gives them higher priority than the times where they do score the run because your expectation is that they score the run so there's not as strong of an emotional response as the frustrations of them not scoring. It's why teams use stats on things like this and not an eye test. In 2022 the Twins had 287 runners on 3B with less than 2 outs. 151 of them scored. I mean if your point is simply that they don't score them when there's 0 outs that feels a little narrow of a stat to care about. If the point is about the runner scoring at all then the Twins were above average at it whether your eyes believe it or not. It's definable and a fact.

Gordon and Pagan should be enough to get Lopez (assuming the Marlins believe in his 2022 breakout). Gordon straight up would probably be enough, but I just want Pagan to go away so I kept him in there.

That's why I said they wouldn't do it for him straight up or anything. But the idea that he can't be part of a trade package, and they wouldn't find any value in him, is wrong. Especially when you're talking about Pablo Lopez who has no more control than Kepler does. They were willing to trade Lopez for Gleyber Torres last year (NY turned them down). Torres is younger than Kepler, but has no more control than Kepler. And hasn't really been much more productive than Kepler since 2018. Or even just since 2020 if you want to cut Kepler's 2019 season out. Torres is a better asset, but not dramatically so.

I don't know where the league is at in terms of waiver claims made recently so don't know where the Marlins fit in on the NL side, but they're no better than 15th in line for Garlick. If they want him (not saying they do, but if they do) they have to decide if they're willing to risk the Twins not trading him before he even hits waivers, and then hope the 14 other AL teams don't want him either. They'd give up a trade asset for Kepler because he's better than most of their current outfielders. The Marlins have no fewer than 8 MLB ready arms for their rotation. Alcantara, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett, Lopez, Luzardo, Rogers, and Sanchez. And that's not counting Max Meyer who will miss most, if not all, of the season with TJ recovery. They have holes in their lineup. They play in a division with 3 teams who show no sign of being bad in the next 6 years. That means by the time they've run out of control on all of their 8/9 arms they'll still be in a division that's super hard to win. How slow do you believe they should be with trying to win? When will they be "on the cusp of winning?" I'm not suggesting the Marlins are tripping over themselves to get Kepler, but acting like he has no value to the Marlins is also too extreme. Jazz Chisolm and Jon Berti were the only players on the Marlins with more fWAR than Kepler last year (didn't look up bWAR). They had 6 guys with a better wRC+ than him. Only 2 of them even played 100 games last year. And only 1 of them had even 400 PAs. Jesus Aguilar lead their team in HRs...at 15. They had 5 guys even get to double digit HRs. I'm not suggesting the Marlins would trade any of their pitchers straight up for Kepler, but they're brutally awful on offense and have the deepest starting staff in baseball. Kepler would 100% make their offense better while also improving their defense. If Miami's not trying to win with this rotation they need to contract the team. Arraez would certainly be their preferred target from MN, but acting like Kepler wouldn't interest them at all feels extreme.

I'd be really surprised, and pretty disappointed, if they DFAed Moran. He had a better K/9 than Duran last year. In 40.2 innings (not huge sample size, but not nothing) he had an 11.95 K/9, 2.21 ERA, 1.78 FIP, .9 fWAR, and gave up 0 HRs. I'm not putting him in the closers role, but for the league minimum, and with option years left, I'm keeping that guy around. For reference Duran's numbers were 67.2 IP, 11.84 K/9, 1.86 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 1.5 fWAR, and 6 HRs given up.

To be fair, the Twins were 9th in baseball in driving in runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs last year. About 2% above league average. They were almost 2% below average in 2021, though. They went from 48.2% in 2021 to 52.6% in 2022.

Only way I see Gray getting moved is if they bring in a pitcher as good, or better, than him first. It'd be a real bold move to sign Correa and turn around and trade your best pitcher when you're not exactly overflowing with guys with his skill. I fully understand the idea of not losing good players for nothing, but at some point it's ok to lose a guy for a comp pick (by offering a QO) because you actually tried to win in a given season. Trading Gray without a pitcher as good or better already in hand (or included in that trade) would be a slap in the face to the team and fans alike.

Outrighting him would be the next step to get him to the minors. When a player is designated for assignment the team has 7 days to either trade them or place them on outright waivers. Assuming they don't work out a trade with another team for him before Friday they will place him on outright waivers. At that point the other teams all have a chance to claim him over the next 3 days (I believe it's still 3 days for those waivers), but they would then have to add him to their 40-man. Often times the process then starts again shortly thereafter as the player is typically viewed as being worthy of having in your system, but not on the 40-man. So guys will get claimed, DFAed, outrighted, claimed, DFAed, outrighted, claimed, etc. a handful of times until every team who wants to take their shot at him takes their shot and then it's just last man standing finally gets him through to their minors. Teams will use the DFA to see if anybody wants to give up a low level guy for the player (like Twins giving up Jimenez for Alexy). Mostly it just gives them another week to make final decisions on things (they can't un-DFA them, though). Sometimes a team will DFA a guy and track the waiver wire and 40-mans of other teams to see if there's a time during that week to outright him to give themselves the best chance of getting him through waivers. It's all the "game within the game."

Someone can, and will, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Ortega is still under team control for a number of years. So if he passes waivers he wouldn't need to sign a minor league deal as he'd still be under contract with the Twins and they'd simply be able to assign him where they want (likely St Paul). My guess is this was their plan all along. And it won't be the last guy they try to get through waivers and to St Paul.

I probably worded my other comment too strongly. I'm a believer in Lopez being the same type of pitcher as Ryan. But better? No. Thus I'm not that interested in 2 years of him. I'd rather keep our players and extend Gray or Mahle or Maeda for a year if the extra year is really what's motivating anything.

Wisler, yes. Graterol, no. Pressly, depends on your view. But that was just the ones that came to mind because they're directly tied to the Twins. The Rays guy just happened to be on that show I was watching while this discussion was taking place. Every FO screws up. Far more than 3 times in 6+ years. It's the nature of the job. If I wanted to waste hours and hours I could come up with a list for the other teams and compare them. But I don't want to waste that time.

If the Marlins value Lopez higher and Arraez+ was what they wanted for him I hope the Twins are on the phone right now trading Arraez for Cabrera straight up. (It kills me a little each time I type any variant of the word "trade" and Arraez in the same sentence that doesn't include "not")

Fascinating. I'm not a Lopez believer at all. I wonder what their systems are seeing to project him to be any better than Joe Ryan.

If I'm remembering correctly, Garlick has an option year left. I'd think that probably makes him a decent bet to be picked up by another team here. Can't say I'm super upset to see him go. No defense, can only hit lefties hitters are not overly valuable players. That's a very specific niche to fit into.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Steer being a similar prospect to Rodriguez and Lopez being any better than Mahle. I don't think Lopez is any more than a mid-rotation starter, and it's why I wouldn't give up anything all that impressive to get him. Certainly not a guy with Rodriguez's upside, plus a decent arm with 5 years of control left, plus a comp pick, plus a servicable ML outfielder on a good contract.

Dang, that feels like a ton for Lopez. Rodriguez is a top-100 global prospect. He alone is too much for Lopez. Kepler and Winder for Lopez is a little intriguing, though. Kepler and Gordon for Cabrera I'd do in a heartbeat. I don't think the Marlins would be in for that, though.

Welcome to Twins Daily! I think that's a pretty reasonable plan. Depending on the starter they get back, that is.

I think Martin moves into a Gordon style role of mostly OF with a little 2B mixed in here and there. And I really like the idea of them being 2 of the bench players moving forward. I think Lee is probably the odds on favorite to take over for Polanco at 2B now. Maybe 3B if Miranda can't figure out the glove a little more or moves to 1B (which then depends on Arraez and Kirilloff). Lewis in the OF makes a lot of sense to me, but I think he's a star so I'd like to find a single position to plug him in and let him have. Maybe that's LF or maybe it's 2B or 3B depending on Lee and Miranda (they can't move to the OF). Overall I'm not really worried about it. If those 3 guys reach their ceilings you find a place for them. Way better problem to have than too many corner spot guys.

Garlick was designated to make room for Correa. So less likely to be on the 26 man to start the year now.

The Marlins not competing is an interesting situation to me. I agree Kepler isn't their top target from the Twins, but I don't think it's because they aren't trying to contend. They clearly have a ton of pitchers (I mean that's why we're even talking about them), and I think we all agree that having a bunch of young, cheap, talented arms is a really solid way to compete. How long should they wait before they try to compete? I doubt Cohen stops spending anytime soon. The Braves have about 35 guys locked up for the next 20 years (clearly exaggeration, but they have a ton of talent locked up for longer than the Marlins have their arms locked up). The Phillies have Harper for the rest of his career, and aren't in a city that would handle them tanking any of his years well. I don't think they should be sitting back and waiting for their division to suddenly turn into the AL Central. I think they need to make big moves to improve their offense, and it's why the Twins aren't really a great fit. Not a bad fit, but not a great fit. Arraez, and maybe Polanco, would be the only guys I'd think they'd really even be calling on. Unless you're talking Lewis and Lee type near, or already, MLB ready top-100 global prospects. But in that case you need a better pitcher, with more control, coming back than Lopez.

I don't agree with that thought process. The majority of fans not knowing who these guys are is the exact reason Twins Daily should right about it. It's one of the purposes of this site. To educated and inform fans about what the Twins are doing. I can certainly agree to disagree on things with people. There wasn't anything real to agree or disagree with to the comment from that other poster, though. They simply came on here to be negative without any real reason behind why they were being negative. It happens on a whole bunch of the articles about minor Twins moves. Sometimes literal minor league moves. This time someone chose to reply to a comment I'd made. A few of us were trying to have a real discussion about AJ Alexy and what the Twins possible plans could be. The person quoting me simply wanted to laugh at the idea that the Twins brought in someone like Alexy, and suggested it was laughable that I suggested they may try to change his pitch mix in an attempt to unlock more potential. That wasn't helpful, and didn't move the conversation forward. They didn't disagree with my stance with any thoughtful response. "If it were that easy the Nats would've done it" isn't a thoughtful response. It's simply being negative towards a depth move that every major league team makes all offseason (and regular season) long. I'm more than happy to have a thoughtful back and forth with other posters even if we disagree. But "thoughtful" is the key word there. "Choke, cough, gasp, laugh out loud ..... " isn't thoughtful. "If it was that easy the Nationals would have done it." isn't thoughtful.

Other teams are doing it! Every season! Pitching repertoires change all the time. The frequency, and situations, that pitchers throw pitches changes all the time. You not knowing what's happening around the league doesn't make my comment pointless. You remember Matt Wisler? Big time starting pitcher prospect that bounced around to a few different teams, but could never get his footing in the bigs. Twins claimed him off waivers before the 2020 season. Before that season he threw 5 pitches (4 seam, slider, sinker, curveball, changeup). In 2020 he threw 2 (4 seam slider) with the Twins. Best year of his career to that point because the Twins saw how good his slider was and had him throw it 83.4% of the time. They weirdly non-tendered him after that season and he went to Tampa where he now throws it over 90% of the time and has continued to be a dominant reliever. Remember Brusdar Graterol? The Dodgers have done the opposite with him. He stopped throwing a changeup after he went there. Added a cutter. And cut his sinker usage from 67.7% to 42.7%. Ryan Pressly? Dropped his sinker. Started throwing his slider more than any of his other pitches. Increased the use of his curveball. And reduced the number of fastballs he threw when he went to Houston. Now he's one of the best closers in baseball. https://www.mlb.com/video/top-10-relief-pitchers-6?t=mlb-network https://www.mlb.com/video/top-10-relief-pitchers-9?t=mlb-network This was just on MLB Network's Top 10 Relievers Right Now show. Whoa, whoa, whoa. What were those silly Rays thinking bringing this guy in at the age of 30 and changing his pitch mix? I mean if it were that simple the Royals would've done it. Or the Blue Jays. Or the Cubs. You know, since he was on all those teams before getting to Tampa and breaking out when they changed his pitch usage. Nobody ever said the Twins were going to turn Alexy into some star. Another poster suggested they may use him in long relief if he really has 4 pitches. I suggested another option of dropping pitches that aren't effective and turning him more so into a 2 pitch pitcher (with a 3rd, the changeup, as a change of pace only against lefties). I didn't say that other poster was wrong, and they didn't say I was. We were just providing 2 options for what the Twins could possibly be thinking with this particular player. You felt the need to come in and make a sarcastic comment about other teams never thinking of such things as if it literally isn't happening all over the league, and there aren't guys turning their careers around all over the league by doing it. I'm sorry you're unware of these things. But it's a chance teams give themselves with good arms all the time. I'm sorry you found me suggesting what literally every team is doing as being a possibility that the Twins will do ridiculous. Baseball savant is a wonderful tool for learning more about this practice. You may find it educational.

An interesting way to look at this is "would you trade Luis Arraez + others for 2 years of Joe Ryan?" Ryan missed time last year due to covid, not some arm injury or anything, but otherwise he was was pretty close in everything to Lopez. Lopez averaged 5.6 innings per start (180 innings, 32 starts), Ryan was at 5.4 (147 innings, 27 starts). Lopez 3.75 ERA, Ryan 3.55. Lopez 8.7 SO9, Ryan 9.2. I don't see any reason to believe Lopez would be our #1, let alone "a #1." He's no ace. I'm not giving up more than Arraez for him, and I'm not sure I'd even give up that much. Kepler and Nowlin for Lopez.