chpettit19

While I hate the bad Sano we tend to see at the start of seasons, he's a career 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ hitter. So basically 20% above league average for his career. Even last year he was 112 and 110 on OPS+ and wRC+ despite his miserable start to the year. I'd prefer him hitting 6-9 in the lineup, but at this point he's certainly the best option for the 5 hole. And Sanchez was a 99 on both OPS+ and wRC+ during his down year last year so it's hard to put him behind Jeffers and his 83 or 82 OPS+ or wRC+ in his first extended exposure last year. I just wouldn't be interested in hoping Jeffers grows into it by putting him there before he's earned it. The other 2 have shown they can be above average ML hitters when they're going right. Would definitely like Miranda to put on a show again like last year and claim that spot for himself, though!

Jeffers in the 5 hole is a tough pill to swallow. I'd think he'd hit 9 in that order with Sano and Sanchez each moving up a right handed slot to 5 and 7 respectively. Jeffers has done nothing to earn a spot in the heart of a Major League lineup to this point in his career.

Agree with most of your points, except hitting Arraez in front of Buxton (you take away the speed side of Buxton's game by putting Arraez in front of him on base 40% of the time). And putting Miranda in LF. That's a very small disagreement, but Miranda isn't an OFer and isn't going to play there so it'd be Kirilloff in LF and Miranda at 1B. I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Twins version of Ronald Acuna Jr. Nothing wrong with starting the game 1-0 with a leadoff bomb if he hits one. The more difficult decision for me is what to do with Arraez. I think I'd start the year with a Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco top 4. Put the switch hitter at the back of the line so that I can still use the same top 4 against any pitcher (I trust Arraez against lefties more than Rocco seems to). Then it's mix and matching the 5-9 behind Polanco as you can go either Kirilloff against righties or Sano against lefties in the 5 spot for example. But Buxton followed by Arraez gives me happy thoughts about Arraez being patient enough to let Buxton steal some bags and doesn't put a slow runner on base in front of Buxton as frequently. Yes, the 9 hole hitter will likely be a slow runner as well, but they aren't getting on base at the same kind of clip Arraez is so they're not slowing Buxton down as frequently as Arraez would. I love the Buxton-Arraez 1-2 punch, but it also doesn't seem right to push Polanco to the 4 spot so that's where I have some doubt on what to do with Arraez. Cuz I also don't want to hit him 9 in front of Buxton in the 1 spot. But I think I'd start the year Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco and go from there.

How far down the roster are we talking here? Because of the 25 pitchers currently on the Twins 40 man roster the only guy that wasn't in at least AA last year was Enlow and he's on the 60-day. The majority of the arms the Twins are going to be throwing out there to start the year are guys who have already pitched in the majors. Winder and Duran look like the only 2 with a chance to make the majors for the first time on opening day. Otherwise Alcala, Bundy, Cotton, Duffey, Gray, Jax, Moran, Ober, Rogers, Romero, Ryan, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, and Thorpe have all already debuted. That's 15 pitchers. Then you have Smeltzer, Chi Chi, Faria, Rodriguez, Gossett, Jurado, Coulombe, Megill, and Hamilton behind them who already have MLB service time. Most of those guys have pitched more than a year in the bigs already. So that's 24 arms in the org already with big league experience. The Balazovic, Enlow (hurt), Henriquez. Sands, Strotman, Vallimonts of the world have already been reassigned to the minors. So they're all still getting more seasoning to be called up later if they produce and jump someone in the first 24 (or 15) I named. The Rays roster doesn't look much different than that. If you add in injury guys the Twins have 26 guys with MLB experience in their org right now (according to Fangraphs RosterResource). The Rays have 30. Both team's #1s are recovering from TJ and likely out for the year. All teams had most of their prospects miss the entire year 2 seasons ago, and had many miss big chunks of last season due to arm issues. Those weren't Twins only problems. Not saying anyone should be overly thrilled about the Twins pitching situation, but the Twins have every opportunity to follow the Rays' blueprint on pitching this year. Just a matter of being able to execute that plan well. But they're not significantly less proven than the Rays.

The Rays throw out half a dozen unproven guys every year. Their staffs are built almost the exact same way the Twins are building theirs now. Waiver claims and unproven rookies. They've just been far better at getting the most out of the unproven guys than anyone else in baseball. Their 40-man roster is full of guys the average fan has never heard of or toss aways from multiple other clubs. Unfortunately they've taken some former Twins org guys and gotten way more out of them. But there's no reason the Twins, or any team, can't do what the Rays are doing. They're just the best at maximizing arms right now.

I'm guessing they carry 15 pitchers for the first month (as far as I know there's no rules on having to carry at least 14 position players of the 28 roster spots). I think we see a lot of multi-inning relief appearances from the likes of Cotton, Jax, and Thorpe at least. The Twins currently have 17 arms on the 40-man who haven't been optioned or placed on the 60-day. I'd guess Winder, Duran, and Romero are fighting over 2 spots. Or if none of them earn it Romero goes back on waivers and someone like Faria or Smeltzer takes that spot. But I'm guessing we see 15 pitchers come north to start the year and there's a lot of short starts backed by long relief outings for the first month of the season.

Miranda isn't an outfielder and I don't think anyone should expect to see him out there. He has played a total of 3 games and 25 innings in his entire minor league career. He played all 3 of those games in August of last year and they didn't put him back out there for the last 34 games of the season. Miranda in LF and Kirilloff at 1B shouldn't be viewed as an overall upgrade on defense at all. Miranda can't play LF. So really your question is Gordon LF, Kirilloff 1B, Sano DH vs Kirilloff LF, Sano 1B, Sanchez or Rooker DH. I'd guess we see all those combinations, and many more, throughout the first month or 2 as Rocco cycles people and then it gets into whoever's playing best gets the ABs. But if Sano's bat is on it makes up for his defense.

If they trade Kirilloff for a pitcher with 1 (Manaea) or 2 (Montas) years of control left they should be fired on the spot.

I'm not a Rooker believer so it's hard for me to support putting him anywhere. Sano isn't good defensively, but at least he can be a difference maker with the bat. I don't think Rooker can hit and he's one of the worst defenders I've ever seen so I really don't want him out there. If I'm putting a no glove guy at 1B they better be able to do what a hot Sano can do with the bat. But Rooker will get more chances until someone claims that LF spot or he proves he really can't be an everyday DH. Certainly no sense in cutting him now. See what the kid can do and if he can prove me wrong. Just wouldn't block Miranda with him.

I'd think they go Miranda first (assuming he's in AAA at the time of the need and is doing anything similar to what he did last year). I think Miranda is plan B for any infield injury/bad performance. But they've surprised me before so maybe they try to force the square Rooker peg into the round 1B hole.

It's interesting to see Seager get the kind of deal Correa was expecting when he has the same, and maybe even more, concerns. Think Correa misplayed the market here. Maybe the Twins weren't the only ones surprised by the spending spree before the lockout!

Lewis claims to have run a sub-4.00 second home to first this spring which would put him as faster than Buxton. I'm not going to take that as 100% truth, but even if he's in the low 4s he's got elite speed and is touching Buxton speed. Just depends if you believe his claims. Hopefully we get a glimpse of it today as he's starting at SS and hitting leadoff!

Again, not saying Godoy is anything special or even useful. There isn't a scouting report I've seen or results I've seen that suggest Rortvedt is anything other than a glove only catcher with a below average bat. The numbers I provided were simply to show that Ben Rortvedt isn't some big time prospect or irreplaceable player. He's Drew Butera. Useful guy with a long career. I'm simply asking that people quit talking about Rortvedt like he's something he isn't. Godoy is what he is and that's a 3rd catcher who gets MLB time when someone gets hurt. Rortvedt can be slightly better than that, but we need to quit talking about him like he's some great prospect.

Definitely. I told my season ticket guy just the other day that I wouldn't be renewing my package this year because the team doesn't appear to be investing in the product so I wasn't going to. If this is the roster they go into April with I won't be attending any games unless/until they make changes later in the year. Dumping Donaldson's money was a complete waste unless it's used to bring in a player like Story or Correa. But this is a thread about the catcher that basically replaced Rortvedt so I was speaking on the Rortvedt side of things where I just don't understand being so upset over losing him. I would like to still have him, but losing him is far from organization altering.

I'm not suggesting Godoy is great or even all that useful beyond being a 3rd catcher. I'm simply stating that Ben Rortvedt isn't some sort of prized prospect we lost in that deal. Still don't like the deal, but Ben Rortvedt is Drew Butera. Nobody would be this upset over Butera so why are we so upset about Ben?

Of course they wouldn't trade the younger player for the older player. I'm not saying Godoy is anything special. He's a prototypical 3rd catcher who will bounce between AAA and the majors. All I'm saying is there's been great weeping and gnashing of teeth around here the last handful of days over losing Rortvedt like he's some sort of prized prospect. He's a very good defensive catcher, but he's an awful hitter. He's a left handed Drew Butera. Will likely have a very long major league career because of his glove. But let's stop acting like he's something he isn't. Fangraphs has him at 30 present and 40 future hit tool and power. Seems pretty accurate given his career numbers. All I'm asking is that we have a little perspective on the player Ben Rortvedt is. I don't like the trade with the Yankees. Not saying it was good. Not saying Godoy is good. Simply pointing out that Ben Rortvedt as a baseball player isn't worth this kind of angst.

I didn't go with his MLB numbers, I went with his minor league numbers where he's had 5 years of track record. I never even mentioned his MLB numbers. He's hit .241/.316/.355/.672 in 5 minor league seasons. That's not a small sample size. Suggesting he's going to suddenly get to the majors and hit better than he did in the minors seems like a stretch.

Career minor league lines: Rortvedt: 5 seasons, .241/.316/.355/.672 Godoy: 9 seasons, .276/.357/.366/.723 Why do we still talk about Rortvedt like he's got some sort of high hitting upside? He's never been scouted as a good future hitter and his numbers have never suggested he'd be a good future hitter. He doesn't have upside with the bat.

Define "already giving him a spot in the bullpen." Sounds like you're suggesting he's got an opening day spot locked up already. I haven't seen that anywhere. They're moving him to a bullpen role, but that doesn't mean they're giving him a bullpen spot. I'd say the chances are higher that he's DFA'd than he makes the opening day roster at this point. But the bullpen is his best chance at a ML career at this point.

MLB Network's Top 10 Right Now has Story at number 6 in baseball at SS.

https://www.mlb.com/video/brian-kenny-on-trevor-story?q=Trevor Story&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0 From MLB Network a short while ago.

"Ignore the traditional stats splits and focus on Park Adjusted stats, like wRC+, OPS+, and DRC+, which can paint the big picture more nicely." Then you try to disprove his points by using non-Park Adjusted stats. Bold strategy, Cotton.

When healthy last year Kirilloff looked great. He's a possible elite bat who looked like he was well on his way when he was healthy. If the team medical people are telling you his wrist is a gigantic question mark for his entire career you can certainly think about trading him now, but if that's not the case I'm not trading a bat like his for a year or 2 of a pitcher.

If I'm taking on that Andrus deal I'm either still signing Story to be my SS to ensure Andrus doesn't hit the 550 PA mark to trigger changing his 2023 option to a player option or I'm giving up no more than 1 prospect in the trade. Paying Andrus $15M in 2023 is far worse than having kept Donaldson and paying him 20+ in 23. I want nothing to do with Elvis Andrus as the starting SS for the Twins in 2022. Nothing at all.

Yeah, that's how negotiations work. Each side gives and they figure out a middle ground that works for both. Were there rumors I missed that the Twins were in on a bunch of free agents and missed? They extended Buxton before the lockout when there were still a bunch of FAs left. Like there still is. Agree to disagree. You're allowed to have whatever beliefs you want. I just fail to see where they come from. To each their own.