chpettit19

He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team. You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.

Baseball contracts are guaranteed so he most certainly won't be cut as the Twins would have to pay him anyways, and he'd have no reason to re-do it so the only option would be a salary dump trade.

I haven't said he should start in the bigs. I haven't said he should move positions yet. I haven't even predicted he would be up before September in this thread. You guys are all arguing against things I've literally not said. A poster said the only way Lewis is up before September is bad things have happened and he'd be playing above his level like Larnach and Celestino had to do last year. I am simply stating that it is entirely possible that a kid with his skill set and physical abilities could have made drastic changes to his game by doing something like changing his leg kick (news flash: HE DID!) during an entire season where he did nothing but work every day on his game with his coaches. I don't get why this is such a controversial thing to say. Jose Miranda had never done anything in the minors and changed his game over 1 offseason to have an incredible season last year that should've lead to his debut. Akil Baddoo had played 29 games in 2 years with a .683 OPS in high A before having a .766 OPS in the majors last year. All I'm saying is that it's entirely possible that a prospect of Lewis' level can make a jump and it's possible he reaches the majors before September of his own accord and not because the team has failed or injuries have ravaged the entire lineup. I seriously don't get why that is controversial. I'm not predicting it I'm saying it's possible. Seems pretty standard.

He will start the season at SS in St Paul is the latest I heard. He can 100% be a failed shortstop without ever playing a single inning of SS for the Minnesota Twins. I am neither calling for him to start in the majors or to move to RF right now. I'm literally just saying there's a reasonable chance that a kid with his physical gifts is able to make his way to the majors from AAA in less than a year. And a slugging percentage 40 points higher is not drastically better. It's better, but certainly not drastically. A guy slugging .550 would've been 9th qualified major leaguers last year. A guy slugging .590 would've been 5th. That doesn't make up for defense, base running, OBP, and every other part of the game. 40 points of slugging is not a lot.

Is the rule about requiring 13 position players still there? To my knowledge it is so I don't think they even have the option to go to 12 position players. I think they'll carry 15 pitchers for the first month and then drop 2 of them while having the same 13 position players until injury and/or performance dictate a callup from the minors.

Archer has been throwing in Arizona and following a normal ST schedule so he is up to 60 pitches in a game already. Or at least that's what they're claiming. So he's on pace with the rest of the rotation, and perhaps even ahead of Gray in terms of pitch volume.

Miranda has not been seeing much time as a starter in spring from what I've noticed and it feels to me like he's already pegged for a St Paul start. If you were considering him for Minneapolis you'd want to be getting him many more ABs against the top arms and not having him be the late game replacement facing guys further down the other team's roster. Gordon is out of options so I'd be shocked if they kept Miranda and tried getting Gordon through waivers.

Very good article. I think the Twins are taking into account far more than just velocity and trying to take a "whole picture" approach to their pitchers. Ryan is a fastball specialist, but not for his velo. Gray relies on his fastball a lot (nearly 60% of his pitches thrown last year were fastballs), but not because of his velo. The smart front offices are looking for elite pitches, not simply velo. Velo can help make a pitch better, but even Ober throwing in the low 90s is deceiving in terms of velo because of his extension and how close he releases the ball. The biggest surprise in all their pitcher moves was actually not bringing Wisler back last year. I'm quite excited to see what the prospects turn into. That's the real test of their philosophy. Being able to develop guys on a consistent basis by maximizing their current repertoire while adding some velo through technology and mechanical tweaks. We'll finally see if they've created a pipeline and their refusal to pay big for pitching will pay off this year.

You didn't describe my way of thinking at all. In fact you described the opposite of what I was saying. I never said they should move Lewis off SS to a corner OF spot if he was capable of playing SS. My quote was "I have him pegged for RF IF HE CAN'T STICK AT SS." I also said he's best served playing an up the middle position if he reaches his ceiling as you get more out of him up the middle than on the corner. You're not even arguing against anything at all that I've said. My point about his slugging was that the other poster's stance of Lewis not hitting for enough power to play a corner was incorrect. Lewis is projected to hit for power. Miranda and Sabato are IFers and have no future as corner OFers so I'm not sure why you'd even bring them up beyond you arguing against something I wasn't even saying. Wallner is projected as a cOFer, but he will never have the speed or glove of Lewis so he'd need to hit drastically better than Lewis to earn a spot over him. Lewis is the best hope for a SS of the future who is close to MLB ready. Nobody is arguing that. That's why I said "if he can't stick at SS." If he can't stick at SS because of his glove, but still hits, he's more than capable of playing any OF spot because of his speed and athleticism. In fact we saw him play CF very well in the AFL. Correa is leaving after this season, but that doesn't mean Lewis is automatically the SS in 2023. I hope people are not so naïve to believe that you have to play Lewis at SS in 2023 just because Correa leaves and the team couldn't bring in a different SS if Lewis proves uncapable of sticking there.

The alternate site wasn't real games, but it was real baseball. If he spent the entire time there not working on things I'd think the Twins would've traded him knowing he's never going to turn out if he wasn't even willing to work on things there. He spent an entire year with coaches reworking his swing (as shown by his leg kick being far less pronounced this spring) and working on his fielding. If they watched him that entire season and saw no progress they should've traded him for anything they could get. And I didn't say, or suggest, that players simply improve just because time passed and they aged either. The original comment I responded to said the only reason he'd be up before September is if bad things were happening. Akil Baddoo hadn't played real ball in basically 2 years and was terrible in the last season he played before being claimed in the rule 5 last year and he was successful. I'm simply stating that it's entirely reasonable that a prospect of Lewis' caliber could progress during an entire year with professional coaches doing nothing but working with him every single day on the struggles he'd faced and could get his footing quite quickly in the minors this year and be up in a month or 2 because he's earned it.

And using those 560 PA in 2019 only assumes he made no progress in 2020. I'm simply stating that there's a reasonable chance that he's progressed and could progress more in the next couple months and surpass the current options in LF and RF without anything bad happening.

Why does Lewis debuting before September mean bad things happened and he's playing above his level? Why can't it be that he came out hitting like he did the last time he was on a professional field in the AFL and he overtook players on the Twins roster and earned his spot?

Then Martin being pegged in LF should be far more upsetting than Lewis. Martin is far less likely to hit for power than Lewis. The hope with Lewis is a 5-tool player in the mold of Byron Buxton. That projects anywhere on the field, but you prefer them up the middle to fully take advantage. Now if you don't think Lewis hits his ceiling it's a different conversation. But the type of prospect Lewis is and the kind of player the Twins are hoping he becomes is one that profiles anywhere on the field. They hope he's AFL MVP Lewis that slugged .565 with 12 XBH in 22 games.

I have him pegged for RF if he can't stick at SS. Not sure why his value and bat in LF is not very high, though? You'd prefer him as a 5-tool, up the middle player, but a 5-tool corner OFer is still awfully valuable.

Why are we listing Rooker with the infielders? Have I missed a statement where they intend to make him a 1B? He's still listed as an OF on the Twins site and I don't remember seeing him play any 1B yet this spring, but I certainly could have missed that.

While I hate the bad Sano we tend to see at the start of seasons, he's a career 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+ hitter. So basically 20% above league average for his career. Even last year he was 112 and 110 on OPS+ and wRC+ despite his miserable start to the year. I'd prefer him hitting 6-9 in the lineup, but at this point he's certainly the best option for the 5 hole. And Sanchez was a 99 on both OPS+ and wRC+ during his down year last year so it's hard to put him behind Jeffers and his 83 or 82 OPS+ or wRC+ in his first extended exposure last year. I just wouldn't be interested in hoping Jeffers grows into it by putting him there before he's earned it. The other 2 have shown they can be above average ML hitters when they're going right. Would definitely like Miranda to put on a show again like last year and claim that spot for himself, though!

Jeffers in the 5 hole is a tough pill to swallow. I'd think he'd hit 9 in that order with Sano and Sanchez each moving up a right handed slot to 5 and 7 respectively. Jeffers has done nothing to earn a spot in the heart of a Major League lineup to this point in his career.

Agree with most of your points, except hitting Arraez in front of Buxton (you take away the speed side of Buxton's game by putting Arraez in front of him on base 40% of the time). And putting Miranda in LF. That's a very small disagreement, but Miranda isn't an OFer and isn't going to play there so it'd be Kirilloff in LF and Miranda at 1B. I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Twins version of Ronald Acuna Jr. Nothing wrong with starting the game 1-0 with a leadoff bomb if he hits one. The more difficult decision for me is what to do with Arraez. I think I'd start the year with a Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco top 4. Put the switch hitter at the back of the line so that I can still use the same top 4 against any pitcher (I trust Arraez against lefties more than Rocco seems to). Then it's mix and matching the 5-9 behind Polanco as you can go either Kirilloff against righties or Sano against lefties in the 5 spot for example. But Buxton followed by Arraez gives me happy thoughts about Arraez being patient enough to let Buxton steal some bags and doesn't put a slow runner on base in front of Buxton as frequently. Yes, the 9 hole hitter will likely be a slow runner as well, but they aren't getting on base at the same kind of clip Arraez is so they're not slowing Buxton down as frequently as Arraez would. I love the Buxton-Arraez 1-2 punch, but it also doesn't seem right to push Polanco to the 4 spot so that's where I have some doubt on what to do with Arraez. Cuz I also don't want to hit him 9 in front of Buxton in the 1 spot. But I think I'd start the year Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco and go from there.

How far down the roster are we talking here? Because of the 25 pitchers currently on the Twins 40 man roster the only guy that wasn't in at least AA last year was Enlow and he's on the 60-day. The majority of the arms the Twins are going to be throwing out there to start the year are guys who have already pitched in the majors. Winder and Duran look like the only 2 with a chance to make the majors for the first time on opening day. Otherwise Alcala, Bundy, Cotton, Duffey, Gray, Jax, Moran, Ober, Rogers, Romero, Ryan, Smith, Stashak, Thielbar, and Thorpe have all already debuted. That's 15 pitchers. Then you have Smeltzer, Chi Chi, Faria, Rodriguez, Gossett, Jurado, Coulombe, Megill, and Hamilton behind them who already have MLB service time. Most of those guys have pitched more than a year in the bigs already. So that's 24 arms in the org already with big league experience. The Balazovic, Enlow (hurt), Henriquez. Sands, Strotman, Vallimonts of the world have already been reassigned to the minors. So they're all still getting more seasoning to be called up later if they produce and jump someone in the first 24 (or 15) I named. The Rays roster doesn't look much different than that. If you add in injury guys the Twins have 26 guys with MLB experience in their org right now (according to Fangraphs RosterResource). The Rays have 30. Both team's #1s are recovering from TJ and likely out for the year. All teams had most of their prospects miss the entire year 2 seasons ago, and had many miss big chunks of last season due to arm issues. Those weren't Twins only problems. Not saying anyone should be overly thrilled about the Twins pitching situation, but the Twins have every opportunity to follow the Rays' blueprint on pitching this year. Just a matter of being able to execute that plan well. But they're not significantly less proven than the Rays.

The Rays throw out half a dozen unproven guys every year. Their staffs are built almost the exact same way the Twins are building theirs now. Waiver claims and unproven rookies. They've just been far better at getting the most out of the unproven guys than anyone else in baseball. Their 40-man roster is full of guys the average fan has never heard of or toss aways from multiple other clubs. Unfortunately they've taken some former Twins org guys and gotten way more out of them. But there's no reason the Twins, or any team, can't do what the Rays are doing. They're just the best at maximizing arms right now.

I'm guessing they carry 15 pitchers for the first month (as far as I know there's no rules on having to carry at least 14 position players of the 28 roster spots). I think we see a lot of multi-inning relief appearances from the likes of Cotton, Jax, and Thorpe at least. The Twins currently have 17 arms on the 40-man who haven't been optioned or placed on the 60-day. I'd guess Winder, Duran, and Romero are fighting over 2 spots. Or if none of them earn it Romero goes back on waivers and someone like Faria or Smeltzer takes that spot. But I'm guessing we see 15 pitchers come north to start the year and there's a lot of short starts backed by long relief outings for the first month of the season.

Miranda isn't an outfielder and I don't think anyone should expect to see him out there. He has played a total of 3 games and 25 innings in his entire minor league career. He played all 3 of those games in August of last year and they didn't put him back out there for the last 34 games of the season. Miranda in LF and Kirilloff at 1B shouldn't be viewed as an overall upgrade on defense at all. Miranda can't play LF. So really your question is Gordon LF, Kirilloff 1B, Sano DH vs Kirilloff LF, Sano 1B, Sanchez or Rooker DH. I'd guess we see all those combinations, and many more, throughout the first month or 2 as Rocco cycles people and then it gets into whoever's playing best gets the ABs. But if Sano's bat is on it makes up for his defense.

If they trade Kirilloff for a pitcher with 1 (Manaea) or 2 (Montas) years of control left they should be fired on the spot.

I'm not a Rooker believer so it's hard for me to support putting him anywhere. Sano isn't good defensively, but at least he can be a difference maker with the bat. I don't think Rooker can hit and he's one of the worst defenders I've ever seen so I really don't want him out there. If I'm putting a no glove guy at 1B they better be able to do what a hot Sano can do with the bat. But Rooker will get more chances until someone claims that LF spot or he proves he really can't be an everyday DH. Certainly no sense in cutting him now. See what the kid can do and if he can prove me wrong. Just wouldn't block Miranda with him.

I'd think they go Miranda first (assuming he's in AAA at the time of the need and is doing anything similar to what he did last year). I think Miranda is plan B for any infield injury/bad performance. But they've surprised me before so maybe they try to force the square Rooker peg into the round 1B hole.