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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Archer topped out at 95.2 in his first appearance.
  2. chpettit19
    The expanded rosters in April may be a natural timeline for a really poor performance from any of the pitchers. Anyone who has a terrible April should be worried about being on the chopping block come May 1 when rosters go back down to 26. If nobody has a bad April we'll all be very happy and 2 guys with options will be very sad they have to go over to St Paul.
  3. chpettit19
    The philosophy change has already taken place. The question now is whether or not they've been successful in implementing the change. The current FO set up new technology and coaching throughout the system to implement a new strategy for developing pitching. The arms are now arriving and we get to see how well they did implementing their plan. Ober was a good first sign, but the real test is if they've produced someone for the top of a rotation and then if they can develop multiple guys for the top of the rotation. The change has been made and this year we start seeing if it's been well executed.
  4. chpettit19
    I'm with @jmlease1. If this wave of prospects produces 5 starting pitchers out of Ober, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, SWR, Balazavic, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Dobnak, Duran, Henriquez, Jax, and Vallimont they are in amazing position. They'd have all of those guys on league minimum type deals for 3 years plus arb for 3 more. That gives you 6 years to replenish the system. I'm not predicting they're going to get 5 good starters out of that group so nobody tell me all the problems with each guy and how they're doomed. Just saying that's the wave approaching the majors at the same time and if you produce 5 homegrown arms from 1 wave you're the envy of the league and you have years of cushion before you need to worry about the next wave arriving. If you get 3 out of that you're still in great shape. If you end up with 1 you're pretty well screwed. If Jeffers, Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis take the C, 3B, 1B, LF, and SS spots for the next 5/6 years to go along with Buxton in center and Polanco at 2B (for most of that time) you have a ton of time to replenish the position player prospect pool. If you end up with just Kirilloff, Buxton, and Polanco you're in a far tougher spot. The Twins have done well timing a wave all at roughly the same time. That's the goal with every major league team. Produce the core of your team through your system and have them all arrive at the same time. That gives you a cheap core and you can plug the holes with veteran MLB players. The question isn't at all whether or not the system will be depleted from 2023-2028 it's whether the major league team will be. If the major league team flops because they developed no core players they're doomed. If the major league team is good because they developed their own core players the system doesn't matter for a handful more years.
  5. chpettit19
    Michael Conforto.
  6. chpettit19
    Faria being out of options makes his path harder. Stashak, Jax, and Romero all have options left so he'd have to be seen as a long-term piece for the season as a whole and not just an extra long man for April. Unless the Twins are ready to lose one of the other 3 on waivers now plus Faria at the end of the month. Seems like poor asset management to me so I'd think he's a long shot. I'd take Garlick over Rooker as well. At least Garlick can mash lefties and he's not good defensively, but not as embarrassing as Rooker out there. I just don't see the fit on the roster for a player like Rooker. I don't know that I'd even be all that scared that he'd be claimed on waivers. Somebody would have to see an elite bat in him and I just don't get how anyone sees that. But I've been wrong before. I'm not as animated about Cave as others, but I don't ever want to see him in a Twins jersey again. He doesn't bring anything that Gordon doesn't and I'd rather have Gordon's speed and ability to play the IF as well as OF. I'm clearly not a Rooker fan either, but I'd even be mad losing Rooker for Cave. There's no position players left to DFA to get Cave on the roster. His only hope should be a 60-day stint from multiple other OFers.
  7. chpettit19
    Yeah, I stated that in a small sample size it'd be considered bad luck but he's done it for so long that it's now who he is. I'm not attempting to claim he's likely to see a drastic jump in his BA (until next year maybe). But a player who is above average in literally every batted ball offensive category should be impactful. I think you're really underselling what it means to even be "pink" in every category while mixing it with "deep red" defensive ratings. If you showed someone his baseball savant page and asked them to predict what sort of slash line they have they'd guess much better than Kepler. It's what makes him so interesting, and disappointing. I'm not a Rooker or Wallner believer. I'll take Wallner's glove over Rooker's, but to me he's just a left handed Rooker with the bat. Don't think either of them hit enough to be a DH or to make up for their lack of glove in the OF. I do hope they prove me wrong, though. Rosario is intriguing to me. I want Kirilloff at 1B full time starting in 2023 (if not part way through 2022). But overall the corner OF spots that were viewed as a real strength of this organization the last couple years are looking far more questionable now. But they're far easier spots to fill externally than SS or SP. I'd love to see them get crazy and go sign Conforto.
  8. chpettit19
    I've seen a few people post this idea, and openly admit I've put 0 effort whatsoever into trying to track down these rumors, but I don't get why the Yankees would have tendered Sanchez if the plan was to DFA him in the spring. I know 8M is basically nothing for them, but wouldn't they just have non-tendered him if they didn't have any plans to have him on the team? It's possible they'd already spoken with the Twins and/or other teams about dumping him in a deal to bring back a "bad" contract or salary dump from another team I guess. I just think they planned to have him on their team for 2022 or they wouldn't have tendered him an 8M arb deal. I'm guessing they planned to use him as their 2nd C behind Higashioka, but I just don't see the DFA angle.
  9. chpettit19
    He's one of the most interesting hitters in baseball. His batted ball data is all above average. His baseball savant page is full of red (good) numbers. But he gets no hits. It's quite interesting. In a small sample size (one season let's say) most front offices would view it as bad luck and see him as a buy low candidate due for positive regression to the mean, but he's done it for years so it just seems to be who he is. So your eyes really aren't lying to you about how he appears to be in at bats. Next year will be very interesting for him and I hope he's still on the Twins for it even if he's the 4th OFer because younger guys have come on the scene. As the left side of a platoon with no more shifts he could be quite good. But for now I want his glove in RF as much as possible with the question marks on the mound. Give them all the help we can.
  10. chpettit19
    That's pretty much where I'm at other than Moran instead of Winder. Wonder if they'd like to get Winder regular starts in AAA (not to mention suppressing his service time) and have a 3rd lefty in the pen to start the year.
  11. chpettit19
    He's been worth 2.4, 1.9, 3.5, 4.0, 1.1, and 2.1 bWAR since he came up for good in 2016. 1.3, 1.5, 2.7, 4.5, 1.0, 1.9 fWAR. Teams generally look to get 1 WAR for $8M. He's making 6.75 and 8.5 this year and next. He's been worth those numbers every year of his career (even the shortened 2020 season when he reached the 1.0 WAR plateau in just 48 games). I think people underestimate the impact he has on the game. I agree with others that the real problem is Rocco trying to force him into the leadoff spot or the heart of the order. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order fans would be less upset about his batting numbers since the expectation wouldn't be that he's one of the stars on the team. You can absolutely win with Max Kepler in right field. Especially if the no shift rule in 2023 results in a boost to his BA.
  12. chpettit19
    Baseball contracts are guaranteed so he most certainly won't be cut as the Twins would have to pay him anyways, and he'd have no reason to re-do it so the only option would be a salary dump trade.
  13. chpettit19
    I haven't said he should start in the bigs. I haven't said he should move positions yet. I haven't even predicted he would be up before September in this thread. You guys are all arguing against things I've literally not said. A poster said the only way Lewis is up before September is bad things have happened and he'd be playing above his level like Larnach and Celestino had to do last year. I am simply stating that it is entirely possible that a kid with his skill set and physical abilities could have made drastic changes to his game by doing something like changing his leg kick (news flash: HE DID!) during an entire season where he did nothing but work every day on his game with his coaches. I don't get why this is such a controversial thing to say. Jose Miranda had never done anything in the minors and changed his game over 1 offseason to have an incredible season last year that should've lead to his debut. Akil Baddoo had played 29 games in 2 years with a .683 OPS in high A before having a .766 OPS in the majors last year. All I'm saying is that it's entirely possible that a prospect of Lewis' level can make a jump and it's possible he reaches the majors before September of his own accord and not because the team has failed or injuries have ravaged the entire lineup. I seriously don't get why that is controversial. I'm not predicting it I'm saying it's possible. Seems pretty standard.
  14. chpettit19
    He will start the season at SS in St Paul is the latest I heard. He can 100% be a failed shortstop without ever playing a single inning of SS for the Minnesota Twins. I am neither calling for him to start in the majors or to move to RF right now. I'm literally just saying there's a reasonable chance that a kid with his physical gifts is able to make his way to the majors from AAA in less than a year. And a slugging percentage 40 points higher is not drastically better. It's better, but certainly not drastically. A guy slugging .550 would've been 9th qualified major leaguers last year. A guy slugging .590 would've been 5th. That doesn't make up for defense, base running, OBP, and every other part of the game. 40 points of slugging is not a lot.
  15. chpettit19
    Is the rule about requiring 13 position players still there? To my knowledge it is so I don't think they even have the option to go to 12 position players. I think they'll carry 15 pitchers for the first month and then drop 2 of them while having the same 13 position players until injury and/or performance dictate a callup from the minors.
  16. chpettit19
    Archer has been throwing in Arizona and following a normal ST schedule so he is up to 60 pitches in a game already. Or at least that's what they're claiming. So he's on pace with the rest of the rotation, and perhaps even ahead of Gray in terms of pitch volume.
  17. chpettit19
    Miranda has not been seeing much time as a starter in spring from what I've noticed and it feels to me like he's already pegged for a St Paul start. If you were considering him for Minneapolis you'd want to be getting him many more ABs against the top arms and not having him be the late game replacement facing guys further down the other team's roster. Gordon is out of options so I'd be shocked if they kept Miranda and tried getting Gordon through waivers.
  18. chpettit19
    Very good article. I think the Twins are taking into account far more than just velocity and trying to take a "whole picture" approach to their pitchers. Ryan is a fastball specialist, but not for his velo. Gray relies on his fastball a lot (nearly 60% of his pitches thrown last year were fastballs), but not because of his velo. The smart front offices are looking for elite pitches, not simply velo. Velo can help make a pitch better, but even Ober throwing in the low 90s is deceiving in terms of velo because of his extension and how close he releases the ball. The biggest surprise in all their pitcher moves was actually not bringing Wisler back last year. I'm quite excited to see what the prospects turn into. That's the real test of their philosophy. Being able to develop guys on a consistent basis by maximizing their current repertoire while adding some velo through technology and mechanical tweaks. We'll finally see if they've created a pipeline and their refusal to pay big for pitching will pay off this year.
  19. chpettit19
    You didn't describe my way of thinking at all. In fact you described the opposite of what I was saying. I never said they should move Lewis off SS to a corner OF spot if he was capable of playing SS. My quote was "I have him pegged for RF IF HE CAN'T STICK AT SS." I also said he's best served playing an up the middle position if he reaches his ceiling as you get more out of him up the middle than on the corner. You're not even arguing against anything at all that I've said. My point about his slugging was that the other poster's stance of Lewis not hitting for enough power to play a corner was incorrect. Lewis is projected to hit for power. Miranda and Sabato are IFers and have no future as corner OFers so I'm not sure why you'd even bring them up beyond you arguing against something I wasn't even saying. Wallner is projected as a cOFer, but he will never have the speed or glove of Lewis so he'd need to hit drastically better than Lewis to earn a spot over him. Lewis is the best hope for a SS of the future who is close to MLB ready. Nobody is arguing that. That's why I said "if he can't stick at SS." If he can't stick at SS because of his glove, but still hits, he's more than capable of playing any OF spot because of his speed and athleticism. In fact we saw him play CF very well in the AFL. Correa is leaving after this season, but that doesn't mean Lewis is automatically the SS in 2023. I hope people are not so naïve to believe that you have to play Lewis at SS in 2023 just because Correa leaves and the team couldn't bring in a different SS if Lewis proves uncapable of sticking there.
  20. chpettit19
    The alternate site wasn't real games, but it was real baseball. If he spent the entire time there not working on things I'd think the Twins would've traded him knowing he's never going to turn out if he wasn't even willing to work on things there. He spent an entire year with coaches reworking his swing (as shown by his leg kick being far less pronounced this spring) and working on his fielding. If they watched him that entire season and saw no progress they should've traded him for anything they could get. And I didn't say, or suggest, that players simply improve just because time passed and they aged either. The original comment I responded to said the only reason he'd be up before September is if bad things were happening. Akil Baddoo hadn't played real ball in basically 2 years and was terrible in the last season he played before being claimed in the rule 5 last year and he was successful. I'm simply stating that it's entirely reasonable that a prospect of Lewis' caliber could progress during an entire year with professional coaches doing nothing but working with him every single day on the struggles he'd faced and could get his footing quite quickly in the minors this year and be up in a month or 2 because he's earned it.
  21. chpettit19
    And using those 560 PA in 2019 only assumes he made no progress in 2020. I'm simply stating that there's a reasonable chance that he's progressed and could progress more in the next couple months and surpass the current options in LF and RF without anything bad happening.
  22. chpettit19
    Why does Lewis debuting before September mean bad things happened and he's playing above his level? Why can't it be that he came out hitting like he did the last time he was on a professional field in the AFL and he overtook players on the Twins roster and earned his spot?
  23. chpettit19
    Then Martin being pegged in LF should be far more upsetting than Lewis. Martin is far less likely to hit for power than Lewis. The hope with Lewis is a 5-tool player in the mold of Byron Buxton. That projects anywhere on the field, but you prefer them up the middle to fully take advantage. Now if you don't think Lewis hits his ceiling it's a different conversation. But the type of prospect Lewis is and the kind of player the Twins are hoping he becomes is one that profiles anywhere on the field. They hope he's AFL MVP Lewis that slugged .565 with 12 XBH in 22 games.
  24. chpettit19
    I have him pegged for RF if he can't stick at SS. Not sure why his value and bat in LF is not very high, though? You'd prefer him as a 5-tool, up the middle player, but a 5-tool corner OFer is still awfully valuable.
  25. chpettit19
    Why are we listing Rooker with the infielders? Have I missed a statement where they intend to make him a 1B? He's still listed as an OF on the Twins site and I don't remember seeing him play any 1B yet this spring, but I certainly could have missed that.
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