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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Archer was clearly toast when Rocco pulled him. He'd given up 2 singles and back to back walks when he was pulled. He may have actually been slow in pulling Archer because he clearly ran out of gas.
  2. chpettit19
    Buxton gets hurt on offense and our response to that should be to have him only play the offensive side of the game to fix the problem of him getting hurt on offense? Yikes. Also some inaccuracies in this article. Buxton has served as DH, just last week actually. It was a big discussion point on this site as he DHed and Correa sat on the same day. And suggesting he was stretching a single into a double on the play he was hurt is quite a stretch in itself. He was jogging on what should've been a standup 2 base error and that's what caused him to slide.
  3. chpettit19
    This is the internet...we're all smart enough! Or so I'm told...
  4. chpettit19
    Larnach hitting fastball after fastball the other way right now is very encouraging. He still looks lost against changeups, but he seems to have a solid plan at the plate and has put some very nice swings on the ball lately.
  5. chpettit19
    Probably have to see how a second week goes before we render much judgement on anything. They played 6 games in just about the worst conditions you can play 6 straight major league baseball games in. Let's go ahead and give them double digit games before we start talking contraction.
  6. chpettit19
    Which is less than 1 standard deviation above 100 which puts him in the good part of average pitchers. And he was a 104 last year with some pretty awful peripherals. Which is why Oakland couldn't even get a top 10 system prospect for him and even had to attach a prospect of their own to Manaea in the deal. Manaea is very much a league average pitcher whether you like it or not. He'll most certainly get more innings this year than Winder (not accounting for a major injury to either party of course), but it wouldn't be shocking at all to see a Winder type rookie put up roughly the same type of ERA numbers (high 3s or low 4s, Manaea was at 3.91 last year) as Manaea in about 120 innings. In fact Ober (not exactly a highly rated prospect) almost did it last year. Ober threw 108.1 total innings last year coming off the pandemic year and with a heavy injury history so they were extra cautious with him. I have no problem with you liking Manaea, but he isn't the clearly above average pitcher you're attempting to make him sound like. And outside of his innings likely being in the 160-180 range compared to 120ish for any of the Twins rookies this year it's absolutely not unreasonable to think one of those young arms can produce a 3.91 ERA in 120 innings this year.
  7. chpettit19
    Every season except 2020. While you ignored 2019. You can claim he cannot be accurately described as "league average" all you want, but I've shown over and over that you're mischaracterizing him by suggesting he's more than league average. I have no problem with you viewing him as better than league average, but you're yet to provide a single point of data to prove that claim while I've provided multiple to disprove it.
  8. chpettit19
    I'm not moving goal posts. I replied to your claim of it being hard to find someone to throw 180 innings of league average pitching and that Manaea has been above league average every year since 2018. You cleared up the 180 innings as you having meant 160. I pointed out that Manaea has not been league average every year since 2018. Unless you count throwing 29 innings in 2019 as being league average (throwing enough innings to really matter was part of your argument against Winder and I assume 29 innings isn't enough for you). You admitted he wasn't league average in 2020. So that's 2 out of your 4 year sample where he wasn't league average. Last year he was 4% above league average. Sorry that I'm not impressed by that. You keep claiming he's above average and now say it's "demonstrably false" to say he's league average when I'm the only one actually demonstrating anything and you have provided no evidence that he's been "above league average every season since 2018." And it's not missing the point, it's directly refuting a claim you made. Sorry if I took "2. It's a stretch to call Manaea league average anyway. He's been better than that every year since 2018 except the short season of 2020." to mean you were making a point that Manaea was league average.
  9. chpettit19
    So we're mad the Twins didn't get a #3 to front their rotation? And out of a 5 man rotation being a #3 would mean you're right in the middle, or average. I wouldn't be upset with having gotten Manaea, I'm simply pointing out that he isn't what he's being described as. I wouldn't be shocked at all if either Ryan or Ober were able to provide solid #3 performance this year. Or Paddack. Or any combination of our young guys. Manaea is not a frontline starter is the point.
  10. chpettit19
    Agreed on none of the prospects getting to 160. That number makes more sense there. I'm not misrepresenting his numbers at all. 2020 is not skewing his numbers as he only threw 54 innings in 2020. By that argument 2019 is skewing his numbers by having a 1.21 ERA in a small sample of 29.2 innings. For all intents and purposes 107 is league average. Especially for a pitcher how has bounced back and forth between basically 95 and 105 on his ERA+s. And many people have argued on here that the Padres got Manaea for basically nothing so it most certainly is not most certainly difficult to accumulate such pitchers. I wouldn't be shocked if Winder threw 100 innings of league average pitching this season. Wouldn't be shocked at all. Paddack has had a better season than Manaea ever has. And I also don't see anyone doing all that much praising of Paddack. In fact it's almost all very quiet hope that he can get back close to his peak. Which is higher than Manaea's. There's a difference between saying the trade was good value for the Twins and stumbling over ourselves to praise Paddack.
  11. chpettit19
    Touche. That's my bad.
  12. chpettit19
    1. So difficult that Manaea has never actually done it. Yes, he hit 179 last year, but let's not pretend he's some sort of workhorse. 2. It's not a stretch at all. He's gone slightly above average (106 ERA+) to slightly below average (95 ERA+) to slightly more than slightly above average 116 to injured to slightly below 93 to slightly above 104. He's got a career 107 ERA+. He's almost the exact definition of league average.
  13. chpettit19
    This was a thought of mine as well. There's certainly some evidence it may be the org as they also had a ton of pitchers who were expected to be great last year because they'd previously been great and they almost universally flopped. Musgrove was just about their only successful pitcher last year. Maybe it's more about the team than this specific arm. Or at least we can hang a little hope on the idea.
  14. chpettit19
    He was certainly the best reliever they had. No doubt about that. You won't hear details on which coaches they talked to and how the trade happened. When do we ever hear that stuff? Of course they have more recent insight into his health, but the Twins have already gone over some medical stuff and will have their team drs do an exam on him before the deal is completely finalized. All trades are based on assumed healthy players. If Paddack is hurt, or his elbow scans show more damage than the Padres were telling teams, the Twins pull out of the trade and it's no big deal. The Red Sox literally just did that to the Twins in the Graterol/Maeda deal. The Padres' staff's feelings on Paddack's value means nothing to the Twins. It's their view on the type of player they can turn him into that matters. And Tingler has every bit as much knowledge on his willingness to be coached up, his competitiveness, and all the other things that the team cares about as the current Padres staff.
  15. chpettit19
    I didn't say Rogers was bad. I said when Rogers was in the bullpen the bullpen was bad. You stated that when he wasn't healthy the bullpen was bad. That isn't true. When he was healthy (the first half of the season) the bullpen was terrible. After he got hurt the bullpen did very well. I'm not saying no Rogers was why it was good, but your statement "The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was THE Achilles heel of this team last year." is factually incorrect. The bullpen without a healthy Rogers was very good. Your argument is that the FO's 2nd highest ranked coach was a trade target's manager the previous season and it's unlikely that they talked to said coach about that trade target? They should be fired if they didn't talk to him. This trade came together over 12 hours of time and you don't think they took the time to shoot Tingler a text at the very least and ask him if he thought Paddack could be coached up?
  16. chpettit19
    This is wrong. The bullpen WITH a healthy Rogers was the Achilles heal of the first half. The bullpen WITHOUT Rogers was actually very good. Paddack's manager from last year is now the Twins bench coach. I'd think he has some first-hand knowledge of Paddack.
  17. chpettit19
    Not to mention it's a terrible idea to package your best trade chips.
  18. chpettit19
    I think they go committee early and if/when someone grabs hold of it they lock them in more permanently. Guessing it's a bunch of matchup based bullpen usage early on.
  19. chpettit19
    I don't like losing Rogers, but I don't mind this deal. Paddack's peripherals have been quite good and if he's able to get his ERA to more closely align with those peripherals this is a steal for the Twins. This likely puts more pressure on Alcala, Thielbar, and Duran to become big pen arms, but if you can trade a reliever with 1 year of control for a starter with 3 you should probably do that.
  20. chpettit19
    Archer topped out at 95.2 in his first appearance.
  21. chpettit19
    The expanded rosters in April may be a natural timeline for a really poor performance from any of the pitchers. Anyone who has a terrible April should be worried about being on the chopping block come May 1 when rosters go back down to 26. If nobody has a bad April we'll all be very happy and 2 guys with options will be very sad they have to go over to St Paul.
  22. chpettit19
    The philosophy change has already taken place. The question now is whether or not they've been successful in implementing the change. The current FO set up new technology and coaching throughout the system to implement a new strategy for developing pitching. The arms are now arriving and we get to see how well they did implementing their plan. Ober was a good first sign, but the real test is if they've produced someone for the top of a rotation and then if they can develop multiple guys for the top of the rotation. The change has been made and this year we start seeing if it's been well executed.
  23. chpettit19
    I'm with @jmlease1. If this wave of prospects produces 5 starting pitchers out of Ober, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, SWR, Balazavic, Sands, Strotman, Enlow, Dobnak, Duran, Henriquez, Jax, and Vallimont they are in amazing position. They'd have all of those guys on league minimum type deals for 3 years plus arb for 3 more. That gives you 6 years to replenish the system. I'm not predicting they're going to get 5 good starters out of that group so nobody tell me all the problems with each guy and how they're doomed. Just saying that's the wave approaching the majors at the same time and if you produce 5 homegrown arms from 1 wave you're the envy of the league and you have years of cushion before you need to worry about the next wave arriving. If you get 3 out of that you're still in great shape. If you end up with 1 you're pretty well screwed. If Jeffers, Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, and Lewis take the C, 3B, 1B, LF, and SS spots for the next 5/6 years to go along with Buxton in center and Polanco at 2B (for most of that time) you have a ton of time to replenish the position player prospect pool. If you end up with just Kirilloff, Buxton, and Polanco you're in a far tougher spot. The Twins have done well timing a wave all at roughly the same time. That's the goal with every major league team. Produce the core of your team through your system and have them all arrive at the same time. That gives you a cheap core and you can plug the holes with veteran MLB players. The question isn't at all whether or not the system will be depleted from 2023-2028 it's whether the major league team will be. If the major league team flops because they developed no core players they're doomed. If the major league team is good because they developed their own core players the system doesn't matter for a handful more years.
  24. chpettit19
    Michael Conforto.
  25. chpettit19
    Faria being out of options makes his path harder. Stashak, Jax, and Romero all have options left so he'd have to be seen as a long-term piece for the season as a whole and not just an extra long man for April. Unless the Twins are ready to lose one of the other 3 on waivers now plus Faria at the end of the month. Seems like poor asset management to me so I'd think he's a long shot. I'd take Garlick over Rooker as well. At least Garlick can mash lefties and he's not good defensively, but not as embarrassing as Rooker out there. I just don't see the fit on the roster for a player like Rooker. I don't know that I'd even be all that scared that he'd be claimed on waivers. Somebody would have to see an elite bat in him and I just don't get how anyone sees that. But I've been wrong before. I'm not as animated about Cave as others, but I don't ever want to see him in a Twins jersey again. He doesn't bring anything that Gordon doesn't and I'd rather have Gordon's speed and ability to play the IF as well as OF. I'm clearly not a Rooker fan either, but I'd even be mad losing Rooker for Cave. There's no position players left to DFA to get Cave on the roster. His only hope should be a 60-day stint from multiple other OFers.
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