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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Ask and you shall receive... Miranda at DH tonight.
  2. chpettit19
    There's no reasonable debate about Urshela being the best defensive 3B in the league as was claimed. Unreasonable people can make the claim. That doesn't make it a debate, it just means people are allowed to say what they want on the internet, even if what they say is not based in reality. Urshela is a fine fielder. He's not elite, but he's not bad. If you want to claim he's better than the average 3B I wouldn't really fight too hard. But any test will show he's not even close to the guys I named (and a couple others I didn't). Eye test, analytics test, asking unbiased baseball people test, whatever test you choose. With the current options the Twins have Urshela at 3B and Miranda DHing makes a ton of sense. When Polanco and Sano are healthy the situation changes and playing Urshela at 3B may not be such a clear cut idea. Will be interesting to see what happens when (if?) everyone gets healthy. If the difference in batting lines stays what it has been recently I'd 100% start Miranda at 3B over Urshela since Urshela's glove doesn't make up for that much hitting difference.
  3. chpettit19
    One thing to keep an eye on is the 2nd half of the season numbers when the minors move 2nd base closer to the plate. I want to say it's going to be significantly closer to 1st and 3rd at that point and we could really see a spike. I don't have time to look up the exact movement amount, but I want to say it was close to a foot. But I could be totally wrong. But will be an interesting thing to track. Bigger bases and closer to 1st could be a cause for a big spike in stolen base attempts.
  4. chpettit19
    Urshela is not even close to the best defensive 3B in the league (whether you mean majors or just American). He's a fine defensive 3B and the defensive stats probably undervalue him a little, but he's not in the same universe as the Chapman, Machado, Arenado, Ke'Bryans of the world. It's not even a debate. He's not in their league. Go look at some of their highlights. You'll see 10 plays from each that are more impressive than the one you provided of Urshela.
  5. chpettit19
    He has DHed twice in June, but I agree with the overall take that he should definitely be DHing over either of the catchers. For a multitude of reasons.
  6. chpettit19
    Adding outside players as the change isn't likely a real possible right now, but I'd hope it's a real possibility in a few weeks. Otherwise I think there's some internal player changes that could be made now/soon that could be paired with some strategy changes that could (should?) take place. Winder was officially optioned to AAA (talk of him being called up to start in a doubleheader game on the 28th) and Rocco says the team isn't interested in returning to a 6 man rotation. Which is fine, but it's a chance for a player/strategy combo change. Winder back up in long relief/piggyback to give the short relief an extra day off each week. They need to accept that Archer isn't getting real deep into games anytime soon. Ober should be back in 2/3 weeks and then you have 7 starters available. I'd move Archer to the pen as a 2 inning weapon at that point. I'd bring Moran back now and see if he can actually be an option. His first 10 innings this year weren't completely lights out, but 15 Ks and 2 runs allowed is a good start. I think there's a foundation for a competitive staff with Gray, Ryan, Duran, Ober, Winder, Archer, Jax, Smeltzer, Pagan, Moran. That isn't a complete staff and you'd like to see someone in the Gray/Ryan range of starters added along with someone in the Duran range of relievers before the deadline, but I think those arms can be competitive with minimal outside additions and some strategy/usage tweaks.
  7. chpettit19
    The worst part is I was on the field for batting practice and had the chance to talk to both Falvey and Rocco, but didn't give them any of the answers TD has for fixing the team and guaranteeing a world series ring. I may be the worst TD poster of all time. The powers that be were right in front of me and I had the chance to save the team with the brilliance of TD and I failed! I probably should've just told Falvey to fire Rocco on the spot and implement a TD survey as manager for the rest of the year. I'm sure @Brock Beauchamp could set something up to have a constant survey of in game decisions that TD users could use to run the team. Next time I see him I'll let Falvey know and we can all get our WS rings as the collective Twins manager.
  8. chpettit19
    Agreed. I agree with not letting average, or worse, starters see lineups a 3rd time on a regular basis. The data is quite clear that that's not a recipe for success. But if your rotation is full of those types of starters, and you know MLB is changing rules to make it harder to ship arms back and forth between St Paul and Minneapolis, you need to have a better plan for the bullpen than they've had. I like most of what the FO does, and think Falvey did a great job updating the minor league development processes, but they missed on their pitching staff strategy this year. I didn't mind the Rogers trade (hindsight has proven it to be a disaster for this year), losing Alcala early put them behind the 8 ball in terms of 1 inning relief arms, and the injuries to rotation arms early messed with what was an unclear plan for Winder/long relief/piggyback starters. I think they made a mistake thinking they could start the year with a rotation full of guys they knew couldn't get through more than 5 innings for a variety of reasons and only having 1 long relief/piggyback option on the roster to start the year. I know they were expecting to build their starters up to be able to do longer outings, but they should've had Smeltzer in the bigs along with Winder to be able to piggyback Archer for sure, and have the other long guy go once a week and get the short relief some relief. It was unsustainable to have a pen full of short inning guys while knowing they'd need to cover 4+ innings more often than not. Maybe they miscalculated how long it'd take for the starters to get stretched out. No matter what caused the reliance on short relief combined with short starters, it's time to adjust before the season is lost. These were 2 brutal losses (first 2 games I attended this year so I'll take some blame), and they've been on a downward trend for a couple weeks, but there's still 92 games left. The season isn't lost, despite what the MN sports fan in us wants us to believe. But the season could be lost by the deadline if they don't get things turned around. So it doesn't really matter to me what exactly went wrong to get the staff to the spot it's in now, what matters is how they get themselves out of it. Sticking with the current, failing plan isn't an answer. Either change players or change strategy. The easiest change is likely changing players. But they need to start those changes now.
  9. chpettit19
    It sure does.
  10. chpettit19
    The Duffey/Thornburg situation is only a problem, in my opinion, because of how they run/manage the pen. If your strategy is "Fireman, 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, Closer" then you want the Duffey/Thornburg types as cheap arms you use during blowouts. But the Twins use a situational/matchup/all hands on deck pen and you can't have multiple guys that don't fit in any situation/matchup. I generally like the FO, and think Rocco is an average manager, but they've all combined to put themselves in an awful place with the pitching staff. It's time to pick a strategy and build the team to fit it. If the plan is to have 8 guys who can all be thrown at anytime they need to get 8 guys capable of throwing at any time. If they don't want to/can't get 8 guys who can throw at anytime then they need to change how they use the pen. No using Duran, Pagan, or Jax (assuming those are the 3 guys they really trust based on how they've been using them lately) for multiple innings ever. You need to be able to use them in back to back games to finish wins. I've defended Rocco's bullpen use in the past, but he's got to change his strategies if he's no longer willing to use a number of guys in the pen in close games. Need the 3 guys you trust to be available as many games as possible if that's the strategy.
  11. chpettit19
    Mixing in a high fastball certainly wouldn't have been an awful choice. Change eye levels at least. Not suggesting it's crazy to have wanted to throw him a fastball, but there's definitely plenty of reason to have been spinning him sliders. At the end of the day it's about executing whichever pitch you throw. A fastball down the middle is also very likely to be hit high and far as well. It was just an awful pitch.
  12. chpettit19
    I think it's time to get Moran back up and see if he can be a real piece. Hopefully Alcala is back soon. Then they need to make a move or 2 (or 5) in July when other teams are more serious about making trades. I'm never going to be a proponent of spending tons on the pen as relief arms are just such a crap shoot, but they need to jump on the velo/stuff bandwagon and quit trying to rely on Duffey types for prominent bullpen roles. I think it's time to move Canterino to the pen, too. Just like Duran, it'd be ideal if he could be a starter, but his arm just doesn't seem to be up to the workload. A Duran/Alcala/Canterino/Moran (I'm still really not sure why a guy with 15 Ks in 10 innings with only 2 runs allowed was sent back to AAA) pen could have the makings of something legit. Then you can leave the Duffey/Pagan/Thielbar types for the lower leverage spots.
  13. chpettit19
    I was at the game, and hearing it and seeing it off the bat I thought it was a routine fly to the left field corner. I'm still shocked that ball got out.
  14. chpettit19
    278 pitches in 13 innings?! That was not an overly efficient outing for Mr. Ryan. 21+ pitches an inning is generally not a recipe for success.
  15. chpettit19
    A player needs to throw at least 20 major league innings and play at least 20 major league games as a position player (or DH) with at least 3 PAs in each of those games to be considered a 2 way player. A position player cannot pitch in any game that isn't in extra innings or a team doesn't have at least a 6 run lead.
  16. chpettit19
    I mean at the end of the day Polanco sees 4.26 Pitches/PA, Arraez 4.16, Buxton 4.10, and Sanchez 3.96. So they all see 4 pitches per plate appearance. I'd think the pitcher is throwing his best pitches to Buxton since he knows Buxton can take him deep if he just lays one in there. So to me the pitcher is "working" just as hard in those Buxton PAs as he is in the Polanco or Arraez PAs. Now the end results of the PA may be different, but a Buxton K on 4 pitches is just as much work as an Arraez single on 4 pitches, isn't it? We can get into things like swinging vs looking strike percentages, chase rates, etc. and say that Buxton and Sanchez could make the pitcher work even harder by not having such high swinging strike percentages, or chasing so many pitches, but at the end of the day the pitcher is having to throw 4 good pitches, on average, every time one of those 4 guys come up. I'd honestly have guessed that Arraez would have a much larger lead on Buxton here, though. The Twins K rates definitely raise their pitches per plate appearance numbers, but it's still making the pitchers work more than most teams. It'd just be nice if the end results of some of those plate appearances weren't strikeouts. Although, to be fair, the Twins are actually exactly league average in SO% (22.2%), and above average in BB% (9.0% which is 8th in baseball).
  17. chpettit19
    My comment wasn't on the general idea of fans complaining about managers/coaches, it was on the hypocrisy of some fans complaints. "Don't just follow a set plan!" followed by "Follow my set plan!" is annoyingly hypocritical. Some fans like to latch onto the term "analytics" and act like it's something new in the game and managers (Rocco specifically around here) are for the first time using a set of data/ideas to create the most effective plan as possible when in reality they just have more, and better, data than they used to so they've changed the strategies and some fans don't like it. Heck, I don't like the way the new strategies have changed the entertainment value of the game. I hate the 3 true outcomes approach and lack of stolen bases. This isn't the first time on field, or team building, strategies have changed. But "this is how it was done when I was young so it must be better than this approach" is not a reasonable explanation to me. And when people complain about sticking to a plan then counter it by suggesting the correct move is simply to follow their plan instead I'm going to call out the hypocrisy. I understand that it's a generational thing and in 20 years I'll be the guy complaining about "it worked in my day so Manager X should do it that way instead," but I'm not old enough to be that cranky guy yet so I must play my younger generation role of pointing out that change is inevitable and not automatically wrong.
  18. chpettit19
    I hear ya on things seeming certain ways because of the game to game inconsistency. Someone just corrected me in the last couple days when I complained that it felt like they were really bad at scoring guys from 3rd, when in actuality they're pretty darn good at it. The curse of a 162 game schedule I think. The negatives tend to stand out and get us all amped up!
  19. chpettit19
    The Twins have attempted 8 sacrifice bunts this year. League average is 9. So they're ever so slightly below average in that. But they are at only 46.7% in terms of advancing a runner from 2nd with 0 outs, and league average there is 50.1% so they are certainly not great at that. They have converted 6 of their 8 sacrifice bunt attempts so perhaps that's something they should use more in extras to advance that guy. Agreed that Correa isn't the one to do it, though, and after Buxton walked last night that option was pretty well gone for the 10th inning. Interesting stats just for general knowledge: There are 3 teams that currently have attempted over 18 sacrifice bunts (so more than double league average). They are Washington (21 attempts), Arizona (20 attempts), and LA Angels (19 attempts). Those 3 teams rank 21st, 23rd, and 20th in runs scored per game this year. The Twins are 14th for reference. Of the top 10 scoring teams in baseball, 4 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (Yankees, Mets, Padres, Rockies). Of the bottom 10 scoring teams in baseball, 7 are at or above league average for sacrifice bunts (As, Pirates, Royals, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Nationals). The next 3 lowest scoring teams are also all above average (Angels, White Sox, Astros). You can take that info to mean whatever you want. Maybe it doesn't mean anything. Just found it interesting.
  20. chpettit19
    The Twins are 6th in all of baseball in pitches seen per plate appearance, and actually above league average. So statistically speaking they're actually very good at making a pitcher work on a consistent basis. Better than all but 5 teams, in fact. Polanco is 11th in baseball, Arraez is 22nd, Buxton 34th, Sanchez 62nd.
  21. chpettit19
    "Rocco is too stuck with his 'grand plans,' just does what the spreadsheet tells him to, and doesn't adjust for the situation! The Twins need to fire him!" "Bunt Buxton/Correa because that's what the 'grand plan' is when the winning run is on second, what the 'right way to play the game' says you should do, and who the hitters are in that situation shouldn't make you adjust the plan! I should be manager so I can follow my 'grand plans' that are obviously smarter than Rocco's!" Fans, and their thought processes, are truly fascinating.
  22. chpettit19
    Franmil Reyes was hitting .121, and slugging .121, against sliders going into that at bat. All 4 of his previous HRs came on fastballs. Along with both of his doubles. Last year he hit .219 on breaking balls and .278 on fastballs. In 2020 he hit .155 on sliders and .323 on fastballs. Has slugged over 100 points higher against fastballs each of the last 3 years. He's a vastly better fastball hitter than slider hitter. But any pitch directly down the middle has the chance of going the other way at a very high rate of speed no matter who the hitter is. Throwing a bad slider hitter sliders isn't a bad choice, it was just poorly executed.
  23. chpettit19
    I think Turner and Bogaerts being available leaves the door open just a crack for the Twins. If the Sox were willing to pay Bogaerts his asking price I'd think they already would have. From the reports out there he's pissed at their offers and he's out the door after this season. Are they good with shifting Story back to SS, or would they be willing to pay Correa what they wouldn't pay Bogaerts? I have to assume the Dodgers sign 1 of these 3 guys, and I'd guess it's Turner since they're familiar with him, but it really could be any of them. The Yankees will be interesting. The reports have been they aren't going to spend big on a SS because they have cheap ones on the doorstep that they believe in. If they come up short this year does that change? If they can't/don't keep Judge does that mean they shift to paying a SS? Can Philly afford a premiere SS? What is happening with the Cubs? Are they going to pay one of these guys what they wouldn't pay Baez, Bryant, or Rizzo? The Angels get crazy and add yet another massive position player contract? I don't think there's any chance the Twins would go 10 years, but I think there's a remote chance they'd go 7. And that may end up being enough if his market fails to materialize again. I certainly wouldn't predict a Correa extension, but wouldn't say it's a 0% chance either. Will be another interesting offseason of SS contract watching.
  24. chpettit19
    10 years, 325 mil. The most obvious comp for Correa is a 28 year old SS. It just so happens Scott Boras just represented a superstar SS that is 5 months older than Correa just last year. Corey Seager got 10 years and $325 million. Seems like a pretty obvious place for Correa to start his negotiations.
  25. chpettit19
    The hitters don't care so much about where they are in the batting order when it comes to their pregame preparation. If Arraez is hitting 5th instead of 1st he doesn't warmup any different. Garlick knows if there's a lefty on the mound tomorrow he's starting. Arraez knows if there's a righty on the mound he's starting. Buxton and Correa know if tomorrow isn't a scheduled off day for them they're starting. Sanchez and Jeffers know their catcher rotation, and Sanchez knows if it's a lefty he's DHing. Kepler knows he's playing unless it's a scheduled off day. Same with Polanco. Celestino knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Larnach knows if it's a righty he's starting. Kirilloff knows if it's a righty he's starting. Urshela knows he's starting at 3B unless it's a scheduled off day. Miranda knows if it's a lefty he's starting. Where they are in the order doesn't change anything. They know the situations they play in and what their roles on the team are. The only time their pregame preparation is different than usual is if it's an off day for Buxton or Correa. Especially Buxton. He knows those are treatment days for him and doesn't go through his normal pregame routine. Other than that these guys do the same thing everyday in preparation for the game, even if they aren't starting. Sitting hot players for a rest day is a different conversation, though.
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