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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    How many pitchers does the average major league team have on the IL? Have the Twins been above or below average on number of pitcher injuries since 2019?
  2. chpettit19
    I guess my response would be that he's at the major/D1 level so it comes into play. There are some drastic differences between D1 recruiting and D3 recruiting. D1 has way more limits on when they can talk to kids, etc. It plays a huge role in the timing of things like this since they need to be ready to hit the ground running on July 6th when recruiting really opens and having a pitching coach like Wes is a huge selling point to D1 schools that are looking to bring in kids who are going to be drafted coming out of high school. I don't have LSU's current recruiting list in front of me, but I assume they have some kids coming in who will be drafted in a month and having Wes on staff at that point will be a huge part of their pitch to get the kids to turn down their drafting team and go to LSU instead. Wes being a former Major League pitching coach is a huge selling point on the recruiting trail. Being able to tell elite HS prospects that they have the chance to be coached by a guy who knows what it takes to succeed in the bigs can't be valued enough.
  3. chpettit19
    Jax is in the 87th percentile for K% this season. I think you may be selling him short. 76th percentile for velo isn't exactly elite, but 90th percentile in whiff% shows he's certainly missing bats. He's been way different as a reliever than as a starter.
  4. chpettit19
    Straight to the point naming! https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2021/12/what-is-stuff-quantifying-pitches-with-pitch-models/ Here's an article from driveline. https://theathletic.com/2641834/2021/06/11/the-pitcher-report-what-exactly-is-stuff-featuring-rich-hill-sam-long-and-more/ Or The Athletic if you have a subscription there.
  5. chpettit19
    You may want to go check out their runs scored in the playoffs during the current 18 game losing streak...
  6. chpettit19
    Griffin actually does have some really good stuff if you believe in analytics like Stuff+. In fact he's ranked 23rd (128.2 Stuff+) in baseball by Stuff+, 1 spot above Duran (127.8 Stuff+). Edit: sorry, I was on the wrong tab, that was from earlier this month. The numbers as of 6/26 are Jax 127.6 and Duran 128.8. So Jax is still right in the same wheelhouse as Duran. Duran is 21st in baseball and Jax is 26th of anyone who's thrown a pitch this season. If you limit to guys with at least 10 appearances they're 13th and 18th in baseball.
  7. chpettit19
    The bonuses and "other ways to pay college coaches" means he's still likely making 700k+. Kyle Boddy (founder of driveline, and with no bias in the situation), had a nice thread on twitter last night explaining that just going on a college coach's base salary is not an accurate picture of what they'll be making. Reusse, Gleeman, and multiple others with many sources saying the drastic raise is still accurate.
  8. chpettit19
    And last night said it was a decision based on being able to be around his family more.
  9. chpettit19
    Yes, I think they would absolutely move on. Recruiting is the number 1 job of college coaches and you can't recruit pitchers if you don't have a pitching coach to do the recruiting. It's not ideal, it's necessary. That's just the recruiting side and doesn't even take into account fall ball practices that would take place before Wes was there. The only thing silly here is your stance that any college program would wait until recruiting is done and fall practices have completed to hire their pitching coach. It's not realistic and no program would do that. None.
  10. chpettit19
    And why do you assume he knew in the offseason that he was interested in leaving? Isn't it possible, or even likely, that when LSU lost their pitching coach 9 days ago they started a search for a new one and Wes was approached out of the blue sometime in the last 9 days about the possibility of going there?
  11. chpettit19
    There's no reason at all to assume "the job certainly would still be available in the MLB postseason." College coaching is a year round venture. College baseball and professional baseball seasons are on different timelines. No bigtime college program is sitting around until October hoping they'll be able to sign the pitching coach they want while they're trying to recruit. It sucks for the Twins, and there's no reason to think Wes didn't really struggle with the timing, but this is the nature of big time college baseball and professional baseball. Official visits for college baseball teams take place in September. Coaches start making visits to homes and schools in July (is that coming up soon?). July 6-31 is the next "official contact period" for D1 college coaches to recruit high school athletes. I haven't seen the end of '22 timeline yet, but, if they stay consistent, there will be a "quiet period," where contact with high school athletes is limited, starting in the middle of October. Waiting to hire the pitching coach until October while trying to recruit high school pitchers would be a terrible decision for a college AD at a major program like LSU. The assumption that the job would've been available in October is not based on anything real.
  12. chpettit19
    I understand. My point is that the metrics we're talking about now that are measuring current players don't need to take into account positioning since other metrics are already positioning players in optimal spots. You said "There is what the statistics do not measure. That is the limitation of these statistics." And I'm saying it's not a limitation.
  13. chpettit19
    Because of stats every infielder knows the best positioning for every situation now.
  14. chpettit19
    A player like you're describing (always in the right spot so doesn't have to range far to make a play, but makes the plays on balls they can get to) would grade as an average fielder. They're not getting their team extra outs by making plays the average player can't because of great range or arm, but they're not making their team get extra outs by booting it on balls hit right at them. So they'd be right around 0 on all these metrics.
  15. chpettit19
    Watching the games the Twins feel like an average-ish fielding team. Some days they're a little above average, some days below. But generally they're just ok. The Correa numbers surprise me. Urshela is a little worse than I'd have guessed, but not terribly. Mostly the numbers feel just about right. The defensive metrics are still a work in progress. I've worked for a couple of the companies that develop these stats and I'd suggest not taking any of them as gospel on their own, but if/when they all say someone is good, bad, or ok that's probably what that player is. There's a long ways to go in really dialing these metrics in, but if there's a consensus on a guy it probably means that guy is what the metrics say they are. These aren't dumb people putting the numbers together. "Analytics" haters should sit down before they read this part....the eye test is actually part of how these metrics are calculated ? But the people entering their eye test scores aren't just watching the Twins and a couple random games here and there, they're doing nothing but watching baseball all day, everyday (well 5 days a week, but everyday sounds better). So Urshela is getting his boost for "Wow!" plays. So the fact that he's still rating negative should say something. (Part of that something is that we're emotional beings so when a player on our team does something either great or really bad we tend to remember those things more and give them more weight in our opinions so our eye tests for our own favorite team is heavily biased)
  16. chpettit19
    If the reason you give for not trusting stats is that they can be manipulated then the obvious logical conclusion to you not trusting stats that say Correa is bad is that you feel they're manipulated.
  17. chpettit19
    OAA says he's struggling with his range.
  18. chpettit19
    What's the motivation for the companies that produce these stats to manipulate them to say Correa is bad? Their company's future relies on teams trusting their stats to be accurate and useful.
  19. chpettit19
    It's a cumulative stat. Urshela has played more than Miranda so he's had the chance to accumulate more bad plays. Same reason why the article points out that Buxton playing more would lead to him having more OAA.
  20. chpettit19
    Ask and you shall receive... Miranda at DH tonight.
  21. chpettit19
    There's no reasonable debate about Urshela being the best defensive 3B in the league as was claimed. Unreasonable people can make the claim. That doesn't make it a debate, it just means people are allowed to say what they want on the internet, even if what they say is not based in reality. Urshela is a fine fielder. He's not elite, but he's not bad. If you want to claim he's better than the average 3B I wouldn't really fight too hard. But any test will show he's not even close to the guys I named (and a couple others I didn't). Eye test, analytics test, asking unbiased baseball people test, whatever test you choose. With the current options the Twins have Urshela at 3B and Miranda DHing makes a ton of sense. When Polanco and Sano are healthy the situation changes and playing Urshela at 3B may not be such a clear cut idea. Will be interesting to see what happens when (if?) everyone gets healthy. If the difference in batting lines stays what it has been recently I'd 100% start Miranda at 3B over Urshela since Urshela's glove doesn't make up for that much hitting difference.
  22. chpettit19
    One thing to keep an eye on is the 2nd half of the season numbers when the minors move 2nd base closer to the plate. I want to say it's going to be significantly closer to 1st and 3rd at that point and we could really see a spike. I don't have time to look up the exact movement amount, but I want to say it was close to a foot. But I could be totally wrong. But will be an interesting thing to track. Bigger bases and closer to 1st could be a cause for a big spike in stolen base attempts.
  23. chpettit19
    Urshela is not even close to the best defensive 3B in the league (whether you mean majors or just American). He's a fine defensive 3B and the defensive stats probably undervalue him a little, but he's not in the same universe as the Chapman, Machado, Arenado, Ke'Bryans of the world. It's not even a debate. He's not in their league. Go look at some of their highlights. You'll see 10 plays from each that are more impressive than the one you provided of Urshela.
  24. chpettit19
    He has DHed twice in June, but I agree with the overall take that he should definitely be DHing over either of the catchers. For a multitude of reasons.
  25. chpettit19
    Adding outside players as the change isn't likely a real possible right now, but I'd hope it's a real possibility in a few weeks. Otherwise I think there's some internal player changes that could be made now/soon that could be paired with some strategy changes that could (should?) take place. Winder was officially optioned to AAA (talk of him being called up to start in a doubleheader game on the 28th) and Rocco says the team isn't interested in returning to a 6 man rotation. Which is fine, but it's a chance for a player/strategy combo change. Winder back up in long relief/piggyback to give the short relief an extra day off each week. They need to accept that Archer isn't getting real deep into games anytime soon. Ober should be back in 2/3 weeks and then you have 7 starters available. I'd move Archer to the pen as a 2 inning weapon at that point. I'd bring Moran back now and see if he can actually be an option. His first 10 innings this year weren't completely lights out, but 15 Ks and 2 runs allowed is a good start. I think there's a foundation for a competitive staff with Gray, Ryan, Duran, Ober, Winder, Archer, Jax, Smeltzer, Pagan, Moran. That isn't a complete staff and you'd like to see someone in the Gray/Ryan range of starters added along with someone in the Duran range of relievers before the deadline, but I think those arms can be competitive with minimal outside additions and some strategy/usage tweaks.
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