chpettit19

This is where I'm at, too. People talk like it's just a given that any of these young guys are going to step in and be 4 (nearly 5) win players (what Polanco has been since 2019). I'm not sold at all on that. But if he can't stay healthy then he's not a 4 win player (as seen by him being a 3 win player last year). It's a really tough spot. One of the few truly tough decisions this front office has to make if he comes back healthy, and mashing again.

I definitely agree with that. I'm crossing my fingers Correa gives him the green light soon.

Is there any recent evidence that they are healthy enough to do that? Dude, I get it, you want Buxton in CF. So do the Twins. There are 30 MLB POBO jobs in the world. There are 30 MLB manager jobs in the world. You don't think those guys want to be able to put their best player in CF instead of at DH? You think they have evidence that he can do it, but they just won't do it? You have no evidence his knees can handle that. You don't get to accuse people who don't think he can handle it of acting like they've medically evaluated him then turn around and make your own claims about his health as if you're medically evaluated him and not be called out on it. You're making every bit of a medical assumption as anyone else.

Isn't your stance that it's time for him to go back out there you speaking as if you've evaluated Buxton yourself? That knife cuts both ways.

Well just last year the Twins went 2-1 in Oakland, and 2-1 in Seattle. So I guess last year was when the Twins played well on the west coast against those 2 teams.

I wasn't even commenting on that, but if his knee is why he isn't playing CF I'm not sure what his ribs have to do with the situation. I was just poking fun at your assertion that Carlos Correa is the one making the decision on where Byron Buxton plays.

I'm sure they're all in the conference room at Target Field asking Correa if it's ok right now...

Interesting thought there. Are there any reports that he's even been shagging balls or anything during pregame activities? My guess would be that this IL stint is every bit as much about his knee as it is his ribs. Would make some sense to get him off that knee for a little extra time, and then see how he's feeling and maybe look at him as a CF option here and there when he's back. Would certainly make all of us feel a little better about things.

The Twins actually have the easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball according to some metrics. If you just go by winning percentage of opponents they have the 3rd easiest schedule left. Their remaining opponents have a combined .479 winning percentage so far this year. The argument that it only gets tougher is factually incorrect. Not even July is harder. They have 12 games against teams well under .500 in July. That's half their games in July against teams way under .500.

Would you "force Buxton to play CF" even if the medical staff is telling you his knee isn't right, and putting him out there likely leads to his season ending, and possible/probable problems for years to come?

Dang it, Jamie, can't you let a guy have his dreams?

To be fair to Yelich, he had 2 otherworldly years after having been very good for years. That contract is not looking great, but if you have a guy win an MVP, then come in 2nd the next year, you don't really expect them to be a .750 OPS guy moving forward. 112, 115, 118, 135, 120 OPS+ in his Miami years followed by going to a better power park and going off for 164 and 179 OPS+ marks definitely didn't suggest he'd go 110, 101, 110, 109 in his prime. If you give me back to back years of 1.000+ OPS I'll absolutely sign you to a deal through your age 36 season that never tops 26 mil a year.

Chase Davis is someone on my radar at 34. It may just be because his swing reminds me of CarGo, and I'm a sucker for pretty swings, but I see him in the 25-35 range in most rankings, and think he could be a high ceiling guy if he can stick in CF.

FYI, Gallo would not be eligible to receive a QO if he's traded. You have to be on the same team all year to qualify now. I agree he's a dark horse candidate, but the only way a QO plays into a Gallo trade is if the Twins feel they would place one on him they'd have a bench mark of how good of a return they'd need. It'd be all about whether they think he'll get $50 mil on the open market this offseason or not. If they think he will they'd set their asking price at a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a 1st round comp pick. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they'd be asking for a package equal to, or better than, half a season of Gallo plus a pick after the 2nd round. If they don't think he'll get $50 mil they probably aren't looking at placing a QO on him unless they really want him back for around $20 mil next year. I'd say the chances he gets a QO are pretty small as of today, but a lot can change in the next month and a half before the deadline.

You mean his 508 professional innings pitched lead you to believe he'll never pitch again? You realize how incredibly out there it is to claim a 27 year old is simply never going to be able to pitch again because he had a second Tommy John surgery 6 years after his first one, right? I know Verlander is a freak, but he came back at the age of 39 and pitched again after his 2nd TJS just last year when he won that little award they call the Cy Young. Mike Clevinger is back on a mound after his 2nd. The Rangers are really hoping deGrom comes back from his 2nd since they owe him a whole lot of money. Nathan Eovaldi is slicing up big league hitters, and he's had 2 TJS. Chris Capuano, Joakim Soria, Daniel Hudson, and the list goes on and on. Many of those guys had their surgeries 5, 10, 15+ years ago. We've made even more advancements in medicine since most of those guys went through it. I get if you want to argue he may not be as good coming back from his second surgery, or they shouldn't really rely on him as a rotation option next year. There's some arguments that could be made there. But to suggest he'll never pitch again is based on nothing. He's throwing off a mound now. He's on pace to join the team by the end of the year. How good will he be? Up for debate. Will he ever pitch again? I mean let's be serious, of course he's going to pitch again.

I'm going to start by saying I don't understand why people think the As would want Larnach for Ruiz. Ruiz is younger, and has more team control, than Larnach. Why would the As be interested in trading him for Larnach? Why would they want to trade him at all when they have him under control for 6 more years? I assume they plan to be good within the next 6 years. If he's so good why would they be trading him? Also going to add that Buxton has a full no trade clause. That doesn't mean he wouldn't waive it, but he fought to stay here, and I'd be awfully surprised if he waived the clause he fought to have added before he'd sign so early in the deal. The Twins aren't trading Buxton. As for the strategy at the deadline, I'm guessing it's very limited, and mostly just looking for a pen arm or 2. I think they're stuck in "we need depth!" mode right now, and it's got them afraid to move on from Kepler (especially when they also seem to think he has value). If I were them I'd start moving on from some of the veterans, and just let the kids play. But I don't expect them to move Gallo or Solano, unless Solano stops hitting, but then he'd be a DFA, not trade. I think they really want to trade Kepler so he'll be here until the deadline. Same with Pagan, unfortunately. This team doesn't really have many impressive trade chips anyways. Lee could headline a deal if you're buying, but behind him it's still hard to build a package necessary for a star. I don't think they're targeting any stars anyways, though. I love Polanco, and I want him back healthy, but his value is dropping by the IL trip. If he were valuable enough to bring back a big return we shouldn't be asking for him to be traded. The Twins are attempting to be in win now mode, and if he's healthy he's one of their top 5 players. Teams trying to win now don't trade those guys very often. Unless we're getting a player of the same talent level at a different position that trade doesn't help this team.

Rowson has moved back down the managing chain. He's one of the hitting coaches in Detroit right now. The team with, by far, the fewest runs scored in baseball.

What a fascinating take. Do you think Do-Hyoung Park is lying in this article? Or you just think his arm is going to fall off between now and September? You know Tommy John is a pretty common surgery now, right? And guys come back from it all the time. Even their second one. What is the basis of your belief that there's a limited chance he'll ever pitch again?

Not significantly. Twins remaining opponents have a .478 winning percentage. Cleveland's have a .492 winning percentage. Chicago's are a .474 winning percentage. So slight advantage to MN and Chicago as of today, but even Cleveland's remaining schedule is full of winnable games.

If I remember correctly Canterino didn't have his surgery until August last year. I'd guess the best hope is he's back on a game mound late August, or September. I know he was doing flat ground throwing in spring training, but haven't seen anything recently. I'd guess getting him some relief appearances late is probably their goal with him this year. Will be interesting to see if they make a fulltime move to the pen with him next year. He'll be 26 next year, and a long ways away from being ready to throw a starter's workload, but if his stuff comes back he's likely ready to contribute out of the pen next year.

While I don't at all disagree that the Ks are a problem, Cleveland is really not the team you should be pointing to as a shining example of an offense doing things the right way. They're 1.5 games back for the same reason the Twins are at .500, they can pitch. Twins 2nd in baseball in ERA, Cleveland 6th. Twins K way too much, but they've still outscored the Guardians by 38 runs. Cleveland is 27th in baseball in runs scored. If they were an offense to emulate they'd have run away with the division the same as the Twins would have if they were an offense to emulate. Nobody is trying to be Cleveland's offense. Not even Cleveland is. They brought in Josh Bell for a reason. And it wasn't to just put the ball in play.

FYI, Joe Musgrove signed a 5 year, $100 million extension with the Padres at the end of last year. Don't think he'll be getting traded anytime soon.

And that's why they're a crap shoot still. There's too many variables to have it be anywhere near as reliable as offensive stats. You asked for reasons why defensive stats can swing so much, and I was just giving you reasons why. I'm not defending defensive stats, just explaining why they can vary so much. WAR is attempting to show an individual player's impact on a season. Cuddyer playing shallower doesn't make him a worse fielder in terms of reads, range, etc., but it did effect the impact he had on plays. It makes sense that that's what WAR cares about. That doesn't make the defensive metric super reliable, but WAR doesn't care that Cuddyer had the same range in RF in 2010 as he did in 2011, it cares what he actually did on the field. In 2010 he played too shallow so he wasn't able to make the plays he was in 2011 when he played deeper. When judging his impact on the game it makes sense for that to be reflected in his WAR numbers.

Paddack may never pitch again? You better let him know that seeing how he's on pace to rejoin the team in 2 months, and has already been pitching off a mound for 2 weeks.

Opportunities. There's a counting component to the defensive metrics. Michael Cuddyer was involved in over 1000 defensive plays in 2010. He was involved in about 700 in 2011. And 500 in 2012. And the difference in positions played. He played 1B, RF, 3B, CF, and 2B in 2010. He played RF, 1B, 2B in 2011. And he played RF and 1B in 2012. Defensive stats are still largely a crap shoot. Based on too many things, and shouldn't be taken as gospel by any means. But the variance does make sense when you look at the differences in opportunities to make plays, and the positions at which you're making those plays.