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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    The 4 hits that didn't exceed 65 don't help the case. That just means more guys on base for the hard hit balls. The difference between a 95 MPH grounder and a 95 MPH liner and a 95 MPH fly ball are fractions of an inch on the barrel. When it's being thrown 87 MPH the margin of error is miniscule, and if he leaves that pitch up even a little that 95 MPH grounder people aren't worried about turns into a 95 MPH HR. If the Twins get 1 earned in 5 innings more than they don't of course it's a success. The question is how likely is that to happen. And the data from his first game says it's not very likely. Keuchel hasn't succeeded without striking people out. He's not striking people out anymore. He hasn't succeeded in years. The odds of him not improving his stuff in any meaningful way, and not being likely at all to bounce back closer to 20% K rate, makes it very unlikely he is successful moving forward. Is giving him 3 starts until Ryan is back the end of the world? Absolutely not. Do we have any reason to believe this FO will just cut him loose when Ryan returns? Absolutely not. I mean there's people on these pages talking about him being on the playoff staff. His 60+% groundball rate is the only data point from his first start that gives any hope to him having any sort of success. Every other data point says we're about to see the 5.25-9.25 ERA Keuchel from the last 2 years. Any random AAA pitcher we call up can do that.
  2. chpettit19
    Not sure if you've ever used Baseball Savant, but it's pretty cool. It's MLB's public facing data center. I've linked below to some of the pages. Atlanta is the only team averaging over 90 MPH exit velo, and they may break the Twins single season HR record this year. Nobody else over 90. Keuchel definitely gave up some squibbers and pop outs, but he also gave up a lot of balls hit over 90 MPH. By player sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo. By team sorted highest to lowest avg exit velo. Keuchel's numbers from that game.
  3. chpettit19
    Love it. Agree with it all. And, to add to it, Julien was taking reps at 1B on his own, not at the behest of the team.
  4. chpettit19
    I have no problem with being blunt, but if you want to do the full context there's even more to it. 6 barrels in 5 innings is a ton. An absolute ton. Gallen gave up 4 on 14 balls in play in 7 innings. Keuchel gave up 6 on 21 balls in play in 5 innings. That's over 1 barrel per inning for Keuchel, and just over .5 per inning for Gallen. Gallen K'd 8 in 7 innings while Keuchel K'd 0 in 5. Gallen allowed 2 balls in play per inning. Keuchel allowed over 4. You are not surviving giving up over a barrel an inning while striking nobody out. Yes, the ball on the ground hit hard is less dangerous than the ball in the air hit hard. But when every batter you face either walks or puts the ball in play even those balls on the ground matter. When you're giving up 4 hits on even the soft contact the hard contact is even more concerning when, once again, you're not striking anyone out. If Keuchel can maintain a 60+% groundball rate he has a better chance of surviving all that hard contact with no, to very few, Ks. He hasn't done that since 2019, and he was K'ing 19% of his batters faced then. The data is not on Keuchel's side.
  5. chpettit19
    Yeah, I'd only put Julien in LF. Arm isn't ideal there, but if he can field fly balls halfway decent I'd prefer that over him at 2B. I'd be pretty surprised at this point if Severino wasn't added to the 40-man, and if he can play 1B that's probably his best bet. At least add that to your options to give yourself 1 more spot where you could get the call.
  6. chpettit19
    I mean he's not Vazquez slow, but he's not exactly fast. He's a good base runner who was capable of taking advantage of lower level pitchers who weren't good at holding runners. I have to imagine he's just brutal at reading fly balls. No idea why else he couldn't survive in LF. He's certainly faster than Arraez, and they played him in LF when they needed to. Them giving up on him in the OF so quickly is interesting.
  7. chpettit19
    When Keuchel was good his K% were in the 20s. When he was bad his K% were 13-15. He may be "used to not striking guys out," but he wasn't good when he wasn't striking guys out. Unless you think he's bouncing back to a 20% K rate you're looking at him being who he has been the last 2 years when he had 5.28 and 9.20 ERAs. Yes, Ryan needed a reset. Is he hurt? I don't know. But clearly something was off. Dallas Keuchel isn't likely to be anymore valuable than SWR or Varland or any other AAA guy that can come up and throw to a 5+ ERA over 5 innings a start. His "approach and experience" sure didn't save him the last couple years. Sinkers that miss up in the zone go 105 MPH 15 rows deep, too. And giving up 3 runs without homers in an inning where they bat around and you throw 35 pitches isn't exactly ideal for saving a tiring pen, either. Is there some significantly better option? Probably not unless you think Varland can get back to his April-May performance. And maybe Keuchel walks this tightrope for a handful of starts while striking basically nobody out, giving up hard contact left and right, but still not giving up a ton of runs. The odds are severely against that though. And he's no more likely to succeed than any of the other AAA pitchers we could run out there.
  8. chpettit19
    This post is actively arguing that his stuff is back at it's 2015-2017 range, has numerous "like or love" upvotes, and there's a whole bunch of replies on it agreeing with the premise.
  9. chpettit19
    Yeah, I don't see any signs of him being an adequate defender anywhere on the dirt. It really makes me wonder what he looked like in the grass. He's not overly fast, but he's not Vazquez either. 2B and LF are the only options I see for him. And if they're sticking with him at 2B when he looks like this I can't imagine how he looked in LF. I haven't seen enough of Severino in the field to have a thought there. It's very weird that they're struggling to find guys who can play 1B. Not a good sign for the fielding abilities of these other IF prospects if we don't think they can flip over and cover 1B adequately.
  10. chpettit19
    Latest I've seen is still sprained knee, but they hope it's a day to day thing. Haven't heard that they've said anything about the MRI results which could obviously change a lot.
  11. chpettit19
    If I'm remembering correctly, there was talk that Julien had been out taking grounders at 1B before a game or 2 in the last couple weeks. Rocco said he didn't know about it, and wasn't the one who asked him to do it, and they had no plans to play him there. I think with his feet and hands he'd make a terrible 1B. I don't think he'd be any good at shifting his feet around the bag to be able to adjust to throws up or down the line, and I don't think his hands would be good for picking low throws. OF is the only shift from 2B that I see for him. No idea how well he judges a ball, but them cutting the experiment off real quick in the minors, and never trying again, isn't encouraging. He's a DH that can fill in at 2B on occasion. Most definitely not ideal, but you find a way to get that bat in your lineup.
  12. chpettit19
    Selfishly I hope they keep Lewis in AAA through Saturday cuz I'm going to the game and would really like to see him and Lee play next to each other. Beyond that I think it would come down to how long he's really expected to be out for. How bad is the injury? Where's Alcala at on his return? Can we 60-day him and give one of the older AAA guys who aren't on the 40-man a tryout for a couple weeks? Which of them can play 1B so are even an option? I just don't like that this likely leads to more Gallo.
  13. chpettit19
    Farmer is Arb eligible in '24, not under contract. They could simply non-tender him. I'm not saying that's what they'd do, but they have no financial obligation to Kyle Farmer for 2024 at this point in time. I agree there's incentive for Lee to break camp with the team next year. Julien is looking like a top 2 or 3 finisher in AL ROY voting this year (especially with Jung being hurt now) and he will most likely just get credit for a full year of service while the Twins get nothing back for him. Those early promotion incentives are pretty big. Either call him up from the jump, or let him sit in AAA for half the year. I'd bet on them sending him to AAA, but I hope they give him a real shot at an opening day spot (assuming he adjusts quickly and does well in AAA to end the year).
  14. chpettit19
    He's got the approach down. Agree 100% with @SwainZag that he needs to figure out lefties if he wants to be looked at in the same view as Soto and Betts. And he needs to pick up his contact percentage. That can be done by cutting his swing down a little with 2 strikes to play for more contact, but it may also just come naturally from more reps and getting a better feel for individual pitchers and their stuff. Will be fun to track his career and see how he adjusts.
  15. chpettit19
    Sorry, I added the link after originally posting without it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter-team&year=2023&position=&team=&min=q&sort=5&sortDir=desc Those are team by team breakdowns. There's not a single team averaging 92 MPH in exit velo. And only 1 over 90. Those are the facts as the high speed cameras in every MLB park reports.
  16. chpettit19
    I think google is way off. There are 31 players in MLB right now averaging at least 92 MPH in exit velo. Edit to add: there is no team averaging 92 MPH. Here's the team by team exit velo numbers for this year.
  17. chpettit19
    Actually, most of the responses around here have been the opposite. One start, knee jerk reaction, Keuchel is back to 2015 Cy Young winner.
  18. chpettit19
    So 9 instead of 11. In 5 innings that's basically 2 balls an inning. He was giving up a lot of well hit balls.
  19. chpettit19
    Lopez and Gray and the rest of the staff also strike hitters out. That's the point of this article. When you're only striking out 10-15% (or 0% in his first start) of the guys you face while also giving up hard contact it's different.
  20. chpettit19
    Over half the balls put in play against him were hit over 88 MPH (11 of 21). Another at 85, and 1 at 83. There were far more than "a few well hit balls."
  21. chpettit19
    I think nearly 100% of Twins fans agree it's time to move on from Gallo, but, in the middle of the game, Rocco only has the guys on his roster to choose from, and Gallo was the only other guy he feels comfortable putting at 1B after Solano went down.
  22. chpettit19
    Oh, unless you're winning the WS every year fans will complain. But there's a difference between winning 85+ games while battling for your division every year then struggling in the playoffs and finishing under .500 half the time while not winning a playoff game in 20 years. If the Twins had the last 23 years the Cards have had many of us wouldn't complain so loud. I just think you're missing a lot of context when comparing those 2 orgs if you just say they've both struggled in the playoffs recently.
  23. chpettit19
    Ok. This will be the first time since 2017 the Cards finish under .500. The Twins have done it 3 times.
  24. chpettit19
    The Twins have finished under .500 more times under this regime than the Cards have in the entire 21st century. Not sure we want to do a lot of comparing the Twins to the Cards.
  25. chpettit19
    October 3 sounds like a good start date to me...
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