John Bonnes

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Aaron and John broadcast from Lindsay Guentzel's MLB Fan Cave Voting Party. They discuss each of the Twins pitchers, including a spirited discussion about the relative values of Carl Pavano and Scott Baker. Then they finish by talking about the new TwinsDaily web site. You can find: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews). Thanks!

Aaron and John broadcast from Lindsay Guentzel's MLB Fan Cave Voting Party. They discuss each of the Twins pitchers, including a spirited discussion about the relative values of Carl Pavano and Scott Baker. Then they finish by talking about the new TwinsDaily web site. You can find: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews). Thanks!

Huh, that's an interesting question. Off the top of my head, I'd say Yankees and maybe White Sox. But having fallen in love, I gotta say, I'm not sure it would have mattered. Hmmm. I guess it depends - do I find out before or after the "fireworks" moment. If after, I'm a goner. If before, I can maintain a little integrity.

Cody, great story. I've promoted it to the front page. You might want to make sure to add links back to your excellent independent blog so people can find more from you, too. Please continue any comments here: http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?224-Twins-will-use-Nathan-s-blueprint-for-Zumaya

Great overview! I've promoted this to an article for the front page. Please continue any comments here: http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?223-Fort-Myers-Spring-Training-Guide

Good stuff. Thanks for sharing it. I especially love the idea of naming someone "The Spaniard," but not Span, cause he doesn't really have any ties to Spain. Instead, I vote for... me. Cause I don't either.

I think Baker's performance this year is going to be very important and also very interesting. A couple of notes... First, it's an important year for him financially. The Twins have a $9M option on him next year and he'll need to earn that. Second, it turns out tht pitch count has not been proved to necessarily be that important for reducing injuries. A lot of what that was based on is now been shown to be a myth. If you're interested, I did 3 stories talking about that research. They are at: http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2010/05/maybe-bert-is-right-part-1.html http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2010/05/maybe-bert-is-right-part-2.html http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2010/06/maybe-bert-is-right-part-3.html Finally, I'll give a gratuitous plug for our Gleeman and the Geek podcast where we talk quite a bit about Baker and Pavano and disagree pretty vehemently about who was more valuable last year and what to expect this year. It will be published on the 21st.

It isn’t just for reading. That’s the difference. When I first started blogging in January of 2002, I went something like six solid months with less than 20 people reading my thoughts on a daily basis. That’s the dirty secret about blogging that both supporters and critics don’t get: it’s easy to do, but very hard to get enough readers so that anybody notices. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EELQ71HPwVg/T0HFlP4lX9I/AAAAAAAAAgU/ztM4WbCpvv0/s320/TD%2BFront%2BPage.jpg When I find out that someone has blogged, they have instant credibility. Sure, anyone can write. But to do so consistently, and make it insightful and entertaining without payment or promise of payment or even any hope that what you’re doing is going anyplace beyond dissolving into the ether – I want to know these people. That is a story of faith. And passion. And dammit, nobility. Which is why it kills me that it may be harder to blog now than it was when I started. At least then it was new and fresh. Now it’s so loud out there, I don’t know how any new voice ever gets heard. And I’m as guilty of the deafness as anyone. I simply can’t keep up with all the Twins blogs that have sprouted up only to go silent. That’s why TwinsCentric is very proud to announce the launch of TwinsDaily.com. We’re each setting aside our independence to start a central site where you can find (for free, mind you) all our stories. But the site isn’t just for reading. There are two other very important pieces. First, in the hope of resurrecting the spirit of the old Dickie Thon Twins Board we’re including a forum where you can discuss all kinds of Twins topics. All we ask is that you register so we have some accountability for the discussions, and that you keep it civil. We’re all on the same team. Second, when you register, you get a blog. You can ignore it if you want, or you can try out your voice. If your post is good, we’ll find room for it on the front page. And if it’s bad? Well, then we won’t. But at the very least you’ll be trying to find your identity where thousands of Twins fans are stopping by each day. TwinsCentric has worked on several magazines, books and e-books over the last couple of years, but I think it’s safe to say that we’re more excited about this than any of them. This is a site we want to exist: a local place where Twins fans can gather, read, share and write. If that sounds great, then please swing by. And if it sounds too over the top, swing by anyway, because that’s exactly what we want it to be. Thanks, TwinsCentric P.S. If you’re looking for a good place to start, stop by the front page or check out our one-minute cheat sheet. Or you can check out my blog there, which is where TwinsGeek.com will be pointing to sometime this week.

It isn’t just for reading. That’s the difference. When I first started blogging in January of 2002, I went something like six solid months with less than 20 people reading my thoughts on a daily basis. That’s the dirty secret about blogging that both supporters and critics don’t get: it’s easy to do, but very hard to get enough readers so that anybody notices. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EELQ71HPwVg/T0HFlP4lX9I/AAAAAAAAAgU/ztM4WbCpvv0/s320/TD%2BFront%2BPage.jpg When I find out that someone has blogged, they have instant credibility. Sure, anyone can write. But to do so consistently, and make it insightful and entertaining without payment or promise of payment or even any hope that what you’re doing is going anyplace beyond dissolving into the ether – I want to know these people. That is a story of faith. And passion. And dammit, nobility. Which is why it kills me that it may be harder to blog now than it was when I started. At least then it was new and fresh. Now it’s so loud out there, I don’t know how any new voice ever gets heard. And I’m as guilty of the deafness as anyone. I simply can’t keep up with all the Twins blogs that have sprouted up only to go silent. That’s why TwinsCentric is very proud to announce the launch of TwinsDaily.com. We’re each setting aside our independence to start a central site where you can find (for free, mind you) all our stories. But the site isn’t just for reading. There are two other very important pieces. First, in the hope of resurrecting the spirit of the old Dickie Thon Twins Board we’re including a forum where you can discuss all kinds of Twins topics. All we ask is that you register so we have some accountability for the discussions, and that you keep it civil. We’re all on the same team. Second, when you register, you get a blog. You can ignore it if you want, or you can try out your voice. If your post is good, we’ll find room for it on the front page. And if it’s bad? Well, then we won’t. But at the very least you’ll be trying to find your identity where thousands of Twins fans are stopping by each day. TwinsCentric has worked on several magazines, books and e-books over the last couple of years, but I think it’s safe to say that we’re more excited about this than any of them. This is a site we want to exist: a local place where Twins fans can gather, read, share and write. If that sounds great, then please swing by. And if it sounds too over the top, swing by anyway, because that’s exactly what we want it to be. Thanks, TwinsCentric P.S. If you’re looking for a good place to start, stop by the front page or check out our one-minute cheat sheet. Or you can check out my blog there, which is where TwinsGeek.com will be pointing to sometime this week.

I love it Kirsten.

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar Pitchers and catchers report We limped through last year but come back for more Pitchers and catchers report 99 losses taught the boys things We yearn for the clean slate a new season brings Like Hornsby we stared out the window for spring Pitchers and catchers report Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit Pitchers and catchers report Gardy will make sure they get after it Pitchers and catchers report Smith was relieved and Ryan’s the man He let Cuddy go but got Josh Willingham We’ll hope that Capps moon shots don’t ruin his plan Pitchers and catchers report We love when they hustle and slide in the dirt Pitchers and catchers report But please Lord don’t let the boys end up hurt Pitcher and catchers report We’ll watch through our fingers when Frankie throws Obsess on the nogginof Justin Morneau And the Bilat’ral legs of our catcher Joe Pitchers and catchers report Finally you take your turn as poet Pitchers and catchers report Channel your winter frustration and show it Pitchers and catchers report The comments below are a great place to bleat Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat (But add words wherever, if like me you cheat) Pitchers and catchers report With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

This shortest of phrases makes our hearts soar Pitchers and catchers report We limped through last year but come back for more Pitchers and catchers report 99 losses taught the boys things We yearn for the clean slate a new season brings Like Hornsby we stared out the window for spring Pitchers and catchers report Four tiny words and hope’s candle’s lit Pitchers and catchers report Gardy will make sure they get after it Pitchers and catchers report Smith was relieved and Ryan’s the man He let Cuddy go but got Josh Willingham We’ll hope that Capps moon shots don’t ruin his plan Pitchers and catchers report We love when they hustle and slide in the dirt Pitchers and catchers report But please Lord don’t let the boys end up hurt Pitcher and catchers report We’ll watch through our fingers when Frankie throws Obsess on the nogginof Justin Morneau And the Bilat’ral legs of our catcher Joe Pitchers and catchers report Finally you take your turn as poet Pitchers and catchers report Channel your winter frustration and show it Pitchers and catchers report The comments below are a great place to bleat Two tens and three ‘levens provide you the beat (But add words wherever, if like me you cheat) Pitchers and catchers report With apologies to Franklin Pierce Adams

Don't believe the hype. There might be 66 guys in Twins spring training, but they aren't really competing for roster spots. In fact, there may not be a single roster spot to compete for. How come? Because of "options." Options are a MLB administrative rule that limits how long a team can keep a player on their 40-man roster but not bring them to the big leagues. Basically, they have three years before they need to commit to bringing that player to the majors. For a little more on it, check out this entry, where I compared it to the amount of time before you move from dating to married. If a player doesn't have "options" left, they cannot be sent to the minors without being offered to every other major league team for their 25-man roster. So a team risks losing that player, and that isn't a risk the Twins are usually anxious to take. Thus, a player without options almost always has the inside track to make it to Opening Day. And when you look over the 25 spots the Twins have available, player without options look like they're going to gobble up most of the open spots. Let's run through them. The Twins entered spring training with their lineup and rotation pretty set, which (barring any injuries) takes care of 14 of the 25 spots on the roster C - Joe Mauer 1B - Justin Morneau 2B - Alexi Casilla SS - Jamey Carroll 3B - Danny Valencia DH - Ryan Doumit RF - Josh Willingham CF - Denard Span LF - Ben Revere Rotation - Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn & Jason Marquis That leaves 11 spots, which probably includes four guys off the bench and seven guys in the bullpen. There are heavy favorites for each of them: Drew Butera is likely the backup catcher unless the Twins are really enamored with newly acquired JR Towles. Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes are both out of options, so they're almost locks to be on the bench. The fourth spot might be the only open spot, but the obvious option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who the Twins will be paying $3M whether he plays in the majors or minors. And there are similar roster crunches in the bullpen. Four of the seven spots will likely to Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya and Brian Duensing, all of whom are slotted for late-inning roles. And the other three spots? It turns out there are three relievers without options: Anthony Swarzak is out of options, is right-handed and did a nice job in the swingman role last year. It seems obvious that he would make it. Jeff Gray is a right-handed reliever who has pitched for several team the last couple of years. The Twins picked him up this offseason off of waivers because he was out of options. The Twins want at least one more right-hander in the bullpen, so he would seem to be an obvious front-runner Finally, Matt Maloney is a left-hander that the Twins also picked up this offseason because he was also out of options. He has mostly worked as a starter, but so did Perkins before the Twins moved him to the bullpen. And a third left-handed reliever might make sense given that Perkins won't be used situationally. Suddenly there are 0 spots left and another 41 guys in camp.

Don't believe the hype. There might be 66 guys in Twins spring training, but they aren't really competing for roster spots. In fact, there may not be a single roster spot to compete for. How come? Because of "options." Options are a MLB administrative rule that limits how long a team can keep a player on their 40-man roster but not bring them to the big leagues. Basically, they have three years before they need to commit to bringing that player to the majors. For a little more on it, check out this entry, where I compared it to the amount of time before you move from dating to married. If a player doesn't have "options" left, they cannot be sent to the minors without being offered to every other major league team for their 25-man roster. So a team risks losing that player, and that isn't a risk the Twins are usually anxious to take. Thus, a player without options almost always has the inside track to make it to Opening Day. And when you look over the 25 spots the Twins have available, player without options look like they're going to gobble up most of the open spots. Let's run through them. The Twins entered spring training with their lineup and rotation pretty set, which (barring any injuries) takes care of 14 of the 25 spots on the roster C - Joe Mauer 1B - Justin Morneau 2B - Alexi Casilla SS - Jamey Carroll 3B - Danny Valencia DH - Ryan Doumit RF - Josh Willingham CF - Denard Span LF - Ben Revere Rotation - Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn & Jason Marquis That leaves 11 spots, which probably includes four guys off the bench and seven guys in the bullpen. There are heavy favorites for each of them: Drew Butera is likely the backup catcher unless the Twins are really enamored with newly acquired JR Towles. Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes are both out of options, so they're almost locks to be on the bench. The fourth spot might be the only open spot, but the obvious option is Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who the Twins will be paying $3M whether he plays in the majors or minors. And there are similar roster crunches in the bullpen. Four of the seven spots will likely to Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Joel Zumaya and Brian Duensing, all of whom are slotted for late-inning roles. And the other three spots? It turns out there are three relievers without options: Anthony Swarzak is out of options, is right-handed and did a nice job in the swingman role last year. It seems obvious that he would make it. Jeff Gray is a right-handed reliever who has pitched for several team the last couple of years. The Twins picked him up this offseason off of waivers because he was out of options. The Twins want at least one more right-hander in the bullpen, so he would seem to be an obvious front-runner Finally, Matt Maloney is a left-hander that the Twins also picked up this offseason because he was also out of options. He has mostly worked as a starter, but so did Perkins before the Twins moved him to the bullpen. And a third left-handed reliever might make sense given that Perkins won't be used situationally. Suddenly there are 0 spots left and another 41 guys in camp.

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[ATTACH=CONFIG]119[/ATTACH]Aaron's car finally kicked, so we take this opportunity to go through each of the Twins players and talk about our expectations, including which car we would compare them to. (It's better than it sounds.) Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Today’s mystery category? Let’s see if you can guess from the clues… "What are the Twins television revenues?" "Why is everybody bitching about a $100 million payroll?" "Why couldn't the Twins sign Prince Fielder?" If you didn’t get it, don’t be too hard on yourself - it’s a little convoluted. The category is “What questions avoid THE question?” http://2.bp.blogspot.com/__MGofCSWwMM/SvC2Pp-BBGI/AAAAAAAAAJA/on_4qxbl278/s320/baseball-money.jpg In Twins Territory, THE question has been: why did payroll go down $15 million following the second year of a publicly funded stadium? But because MLB teams keep their financial information so private, journalists are limited in the information they can dig up. Since that information doesn’t give the whole story - and because they want to share that information that they’ve uncovered - they find other questions so they can still publish the story. Or, they list what they found, and refer to it generally, but offer few specifics. My pithy intro might suggest I’m being critical of that strategy. I’m not - for two good reasons. First, because these are usually fine questions to answer, and every answer adds a piece to the puzzle. Second, because I‘m about to do much the same thing. On Friday night, in a Q&A session at the end of the Hot Stove Banquet, Twins President Dave St. Peter answered THE question candidly, if generally. He listed 3 factors: 1) The Twins stretched payroll slightly last year, and so the reduction isn't really $15M over last year's budget. The last signing of last year's offseason was Carl Pavano, who signed for $8M. At the time, the Twins claimed they stretched a little to make that signing, and before that signing they were still looking into other players, albeit less expensive ones. So let's assume that accounts for $2-3M of the difference. 2) The Twins will need to pay more for draft picks then they did last year. Last year the Twins paid about $3M for their top draft picks. This year the Twins will have five picks in the top 75. Thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement, we know almost exactly how much those picks should cost: about $11M. That's $8M plus $2-3M from stretching last year and now the Twins are down ~$10-11M. We have $4-5M left to find. 3) Finally, St. Peter anticipates a drop in revenue. He clarified this a few minutes later when he said that revenues from the ballpark tend to normalize on a per capita basis. In other words, as the novelty of a new ballpark wears off, people spend less on each trip to the ballpark. (By the way, the Twins also revealed during the media luncheon on Friday that they only anticipate about a 4% decrease in season tickets this year.) That makes sense. Since payroll is supposed to be about 50% of the total revenue, a $4-5M decrease in payroll would reflect an $8-10M decrease in revenue. That seems high to me, but not totally unreasonable, especially when St. Peter added that they aren't budgeting for 3,000,000 in attendance this year. (That last note, by the way, could further explain Phil Mackey’s story about Jim Pohlad taking a “wait-and-see” approach. When I read that story, I was outraged: ownership was expecting fans to make a financial commitment but wasn’t willing to make one itself. Reading between the lines, I wonder if the story isn’t a little different. After last year’s disaster, and with so much uncertainty, ownership directed management to use more conservative models for anticipated revenue. The effect is the same, and it’s essentially what Mackey’s sources said, but somehow this infuriates me less.) This shouldn't be meant to imply that I approve, or even completely understand. For instance, I still believe it is pennywise and pound foolish to not invest and additional $2M in backup plans at two especially questionable roster spots. And it isn't clear to me why some of that decrease isn't offset by increases in shared national revenues, which consistently increase for MLB teams. I still haven’t answered the question. But it gets us closer, and leads to some good news/bad news. The bad news is that the Pohlads are not the Ilitchs - they run a business as a business, and not as a charitable organization, no matter how much fun it would be to win a World Series. But it also implies that two of those three cuts should be one-time events. Hopefully so will this payroll reduction. Which may have been the real $15,000,000 question I wanted answered.