John Bonnes

Five weeks. Just five weeks. Here's what you magnificent people have been doing in the five weeks since pitchers and catchers reported: We’re up to 1100 registered members, and nearly 500 of them have contributed to the community. The forum holds 500 discussion threads that have generated over 5000 individual posts, or about 100/1000 per week. 321 individual blog posts by our members on 62 blogs, or about nine every day. Those have been read by 34,765 unique visitors who have stopped by 134,000 times. Last Thursday we had 621 people visiting the site all at the same time. And finally, the benchmark that drove us to do this research: over half a million page views. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]The goal of this site was to make it easier for Twins fans to find great independent Twins writers and thinkers. But having 35,000 people discover posts and blogs of hundreds of our members over half a million times in a little over a month? I’m pinching my PC screen. This can’t be real. So again THANK YOU all for coming together and doing this. PLEASE: read, join, post, write and share with your friends. You have something to give. We’ll do our best to make sure we do our best to help people find it. Time for a couple of important notes… Ads You’re going to start seeing ads on TwinsDaily. Believe it or not, this is a good thing. For a community to thrive, it needs to be able to pay for itself, and all this activity (not to mention the initial investment in the web site) costs money. Ads are the last cornerstone to keep this community self-sufficient. It also reflects how thriving this community is - nobody advertises where there aren’t people. We’ll try and keep them from being overwhelming and hope you’ll support them the way they’re supporting all of us. By the way, the implementation of those ads might not be totally seamless. We’re feeling our way through this thing. As always, let us know if you think we’re screwing up. Spam The spambots have found us. Every morning Nick, Seth, Parker and I scour the site trying to stay on top of them, but it’s mostly reactive. So if you see one we’ve missed or haven’t found, please click on “Report” and we’ll get on it (and ban the user) as soon as we can. Play Nice Communities do a lot better when people show each other a level of respect. So we’re enforcing no vulgarity and no personal attacks. If you find a post that you think violates that, rather than lash out yourself, report it to us. Avatars Finally, let’s all get avatars, ok? Here’s how: When you’re logged in, click on “Settings” in the upper right hand corner (or here.) Click on Edit Avatar on the left-hand side. Thanks again everyone. As always, let us know your thoughts below or in the Questions About Twins Daily Forum. I don’t know exactly how the Twins season is going to go, but I’m sure glad we found each other and can share it together.

Big roster announcements prompt a debate about the Twins making decisions based on spring training performances. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

Fueled by interviews with assistant GM Rob Antony and manager Ron Gardenhire, yesterday became the best day of the year for Twins spring training news. The result? Almost every projected lineup you saw this offseason was probably wrong. Instead, you’ll like see a whole lot of Josh Willingham playing left field, Ryan Doumit playing right field, Justin Morneau as the designated hitter and Chris Parmelee playing first base. The shakeup happens twelve days before the regular season starts and about a week before the Twins break camp. Like any reorg, it resulted in some good days and bad days: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Good Day: Parmelee Not only does it look like Parmelee made the major league team, it looks like he is in position to be a regular without ever having played a game at AAA. That speaks highly of the organization’s confidence in him, confidence which is fueled by his second half in New Britain, a tremendous September call-up and a spring training where he has continued to show power. But make no mistake, this plan hinges on Parmelee being a productive major league player. That is an open question. Parmelee has averaged just twelve home runs and a .266 batting average over his six years in he minors. That’s not nearly enough production for a first base prospect. If he falls flat, this plan looks a hell of a lot worse than any of those offseason projections. That’s because this next guy is suddenly a guy without a position. Bad Day: Ben Revere When Gardenhire announced yesterday that Willingham was going to be his everyday left fielder and Span his everyday center fielder, Revere was left without a position. Revere’s defensive strength is his range and his weakness is his arm. In Target Field that makes him a fantastic left fielder and a decent center fielder. But putting him in Target Field’s tiny right field negates his biggest strength and exposes his biggest weakness. The Twins say he’s competing for right field, but were he to win it, Gardenhire would look borderline insane. They also say he’s competing for a roster spot, but without him on the roster, there isn’t a backup center fielder, unless the Twins decide to go with Darin Mastroianni. I almost hope they do, because I think Revere needs to get everyday at-bats if he’s going to develop into the water bug he could become. Good Day: Gardenhire Though He may not feel like it, because filling out the lineup sheet just got a lot more complicated. But provided PFOHF (Parmelee doesn’t fall on his face), Gardy’s roster has a ton of flexibility and offensive options to protect his two biggest guns, Morneau and Joe Mauer. With Doumit on the roster, Mauer can play less at catcher, but still be in the lineup at first or DH. Morneau can take the spot that Mauer doesn’t and Parmelee can add his offense in right field. If Morneau needs a day off, Parmelee or Doumit can DH and Trevor Plouffe can play first base and punish a southpaw or two. Gardenhire also essentially replaces a bottom of the order bat (Revere) with a middle-of-the-order bat (Parmelee) for most games. My best guess on the lineup now looks like this: Span (LH) Jamey Carroll (RH) Mauer (LH) Morneau (LH) Willingham (RH) Parmelee/Doumit (LH) Danny Valencia (RH) Doumit/Parmelee (LH) Alexi Casilla (SH) If Doumit or Parmelee is hitting eighth, that’s a deep lineup. Congrats, Ron. Bad Day: The Pitching Staff The Twins offense just went from one of the better defensive outfields in the majors to one of the worst. That’s how big of an impact Revere’s range could have had. And if PFOHF then there is a real mess. Either Gardenhire has to move Willingham back to right field or the staff has to deal with a bad outfield AND know that it has been designed in almost the worst possible way. Bad Day: Nearly everyone hoping for a bench spot For a four-man bench, it appears three spots are taken: Luke Hughes & Plouffe (both of whom are useful and out of options) and Revere. That leaves one spot for either another catcher or a utility guy. Both could be classified as luxuries. The third catcher position doesn’t seem to be as critical now that we know Morneau will likely be seeing most of the at-bats at DH. If Doumit was the DH, and Mauer got hurt during a game, then they Twins would have had to have the pitcher bat if Doumit moved to catcher. That seems less likely now. And the utility infielder role was mostly about backing up the shortstop, but the Twins do have two other players, Plouffe and Casilla, who can play shortstop. If Casilla plays short then Hughes, who is having a monster spring, could play second base. And while the Twins claim they want Plouffe to stay away from the middle infield, Parmelee’s emergence likely means less platoon opportunities for Plouffe. Maybe he needs to be looking at a super-utility role.

When the Twins sent Tsuyoshi Nishioka down, they admitted that they might need to replace him with a guy from another team’s roster. They’re right. Looking at the guys that remain in camp, there isn’t another really good option, at least not one that can play shortstop. Fortunately, this is the right time to find just such a player. At the end of spring training, teams make all kinds of guys available: players without options, Rule 5 draft picks or just guys that are dropped from the 40-man roster to make room for someone else. In fact, the Twins took advantage of that just two years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]They were faced with a similar problem – they didn’t have a great option to be the backup center fielder. Towards the end of spring training, the Dodgers released Jason Repko. A week later, the Twins signed him and he played here for the last two years. So let’s get a jump start on some names that you might see on the Twins roster in a couple of weeks, even if they’re with other teams now. All have their warts – we are talking about utility players after all - but some intriguing traits, too. Wilson Valdez – He’s the kind of guy you might expect the Twins to seek for this position. He’s old (33), has a good defensive rep, is on the Reds (who the Twins love to scavenge) and is full of veteran nougaty goodness. He’s also out of options, but is a long shot to be available. On the one hand, the Reds traded for him just a couple of months ago. On the other, it looks like they could have some similar, slightly younger options. If he is available, I gotta imagine the Twins will swoop in. Emmanuel Burriss – He’s just 27, he’s a switch-hitter and he has stolen as many as 68 bases in a year in the minors. He’s also out of options and batting for a bench spot with the Giants. However, he’s struggled to get on base in the majors with just a .311 OBP. More unfortunately, he’s having a fantastic spring and probably winning that last bench spot. Chris Nelson – This 26-year-old has struggled to find playing time with the Rockies and hasn’t done much (.254 BA/.284 OBP) when he has. However, he’s torn up AAA to the tune of .321/.371/.518 in 608 plate appearances. He’s out of options, and had only a mediocre spring so far, but a recent neck injury to Casey Blake might mean the Rockies will have room for him on the roster. Stay tuned. Donnie Murphy – He’s 29 years old (which is relatively old) and has only hit .202 in limited time over six years with three different teams. He also was hurt part of last year. Finally, he’s having a miserable spring with the Marlins and is out of options. He’ll likely be available. He’s intriguing because he represents a rarity – a middle infielder with some pop. His right-handed bat hit double-digit home runs in several minor league stops, and he has a .500+ slugging percentage at AAA. This is just a few of the guys, obviously, but they probably represent some of the more likely options. If you’ve got any other ideas, I’d love to hear them below.

In this week's episode, John and Aaron sip some Nordeast and talk about Nishi's demotion, Baker's injury, some surprising Twins performances, and what it all means for the Twins Opening Day roster. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes (where you can also subscribe and leave reviews).

The news that Scott Baker is injured…. Geek Chorus: Hold it – NEWS? Is that really news? At this point, wouldn’t it be news if Baker got out of spring training completely healthy? Isn’t “Scott Baker is injured in spring training” the status quo? Nobody says it’s news when it’s 70 & sunny in San Diego. It’s only news here because it’s March and Minnesota. Touché. Anyway, with Baker taking those first critical steps to yet another underachieving and frustrating season, I wondered about a debate that Aaron Gleeman and I have been having on the Gleeman and the Geek podcasts: will Scott Baker be with the Twins next year? Let’s set the stage. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Of the five Twins probable starting pitchers, three will be free agents at the end of the season: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis. Scott Baker could be the fourth, but the Twins have a $9.5 million option for him. I can’t imagine him making that much per year on the free agent market if he has another year anything like his last three. On the other hand, there is (almost) no such thing as a bad one-year contract. He still has promise. And it’s not like the Twins have a bunch of young arms in the high minors for which they’re anxious to find a role. They might like a little stability, even if it means overpaying for Baker. The question is: could they afford to overpay for Baker? To figure that out, one needs to take a look at what the roster might look like in 2013 and do a little back-of-the-napkin calculating, which you’ll find on the right. Can the Twins afford to pick up Baker's option? The short answer is: yes, probably. As things sit right now, the Twins would have $30 million to spend on four starting pitchers. Presumably, one of those is going to be prospect Liam Hendricks, who might very well take over Baker's spot in the rotation if he's out for any length of time. And he’ll make less than $500,000. The Twins aren't likely to drop $30 million on the three remaining starting pitcher spots, because pitchers who cost $10 million per year tend to only be available on longer multi-year contracts which the Twins avoid. The exception, of course, would be Baker and his option year. So even if Baker has yet one more substandard year, he could be in line for that extension. A mixture of need, promise, likeability and extra budget dollars means that Baker could be around in 2013. We'll watch this season unfold before we pass judgment on should. Other Notes The Twins have two other decisions to make next year, too. First, Alexi Casilla, if he plays the full year, will probably be up for at least a $2 to $3 million salary. Just because they Twins seem to be focused on other options long-term, I didn’t include him. I hope he has his breakthrough this year and I’m wrong about that. The other is Matt Capps. The Twins have a $6 million option on Capps for next year. I think the Perkins extension indicates the Twins have plans for him to ultimately take over the closer role, which might finally and mercifully end the Twins obsession with Capps. But I've been wrong about that before. TwinsDaily The hottest Twins topic is who is going to make the Twins roster, and Jim Crikket posted a nice primer if you want to catch up on who your newest Twins might be. If you want to be a little more specific, or check in on your favorite dark horse, check out Thryloss' dashboard look at how each bench and bullpen arm has performed. Seth, meanwhile, continues to take a look at how the Twins stack up against the rest of the AL Central at various positions. Surprisingly for a 99-loss team, they look awfully good. Of his latest two positions, I'd argue the Twins have the second best right-fielder in the bunch and the best center fielder. There just might be some hope after all.... Things are not so sunny in the Forum. First, we keep trying to put last year behind us, but it really is hard, especially for the morbidly curious. Plus, when we focus on the spring, we're reminded that Tsuyoshi Nishioka still looks lost out there. Just how are we going to keep him off the roster?

It’s still early in spring training – early enough so that our eyes could be fooling us from this bright sun thing – but maybe there’s some hope for the Twins bullpen after all. The bullpen has been a sore spots for Twins fans for…wow…how long has it been? This offseason, obviously. Last season, for sure. 2010 was a bit of respite, though there was enough panic to trade away Ramos Wilson for Matt Capps. In 2009 it struggled beyond Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier. 2008 was REALLY bad up until Jose Mijares was given a role for the last two weeks of September. In 2007…ok…I’ll let you decide where you want to draw the line, but it’s fair to say it’s been a sore spot several times recently. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It looked to be so again this year, especially when free agent Joel Zumaya was injured which caused some bloggers to lose their cool. (Justifiably, I would argue.) It looked like the bullpen was going to be manned by - let’s make sure I quote this right – “either a member of last year's shaky corps or a waiver or minor-league pickup.” That’s still true. But some of those pickups are producing some surprising results, especially when it comes to some strikeouts. With three spots likely open in the bullpen, three guys – two right-handers and one left-hander – have shined in early contests. Jared Burton was scavenged from the Cincinnati Reds, courtesy of a shoulder injury and a hyperthyroid condition that cost him most of the last two years. That doesn’t change the fact that the 30-year-old right-hander has earned a 3.41 ERA in the majors over 169 innings. “Hits” are not a trustworthy stat in spring training, but the fact that Burton hasn’t given up any in his four relief outings, while striking out four and walking just one at least puts him on the right path. Left-hander Matt Maloney, statistically, looks like the most exciting option. Cincinnati was also kind enough to contribute Maloney to the roster this offseason, though at least it cost the Twins a 40-man roster spot this time. In the majors, Maloney has mostly been used as a starter, but in his relief appearances, he’s struck out 21 batters in 24 innings, with just six walks (albeit 28 hits). This spring he’s dominated, striking out eight in 5.1 innings, while walking just one and giving up just three hits. Those are numbers that can’t be ignored, no matter which inning one is pitching. Speaking of “which inning one is pitching,” Jeff Manship has steadily been working his way from the late innings to the early innings in spring training games – an indication that manager Ron Gardenhire wants him to face better competition. He’s earned it. In his four appearances, he’s struck out six, walked none and given up just two hits. Both times I’ve seen him, his strike outs came on a what Seth Stohs describes as a “spiked slider.’ I have no idea what that mean, but I love the name, and I love the way it ends up at a batters ankles as he swings. Manship has been with the Twins for years, making a few appearances with the big league club, looking mostly mediocre, both as a starter and a reliever. His biggest weakness has been that he just plain gave up a lot of hits. That wasn’t a weakness in the minors, and a strikeout rate in AAA nearing 7 per nine innings – mostly as a starter – indicates he could take a significant step up given the chance to relieve. For instance, Joe Nathan averaged 7.2 K/9 in AAA, also as a starter. Of course, Nathan had that nasty slider – but Manship also looks like he’s got his “spiked slider” and I’ve heard reports of a top shelf curveball, too. (Though, maybe they’re talking about the same thing. It’s hard to tell sometimes.) The point remains: if Manship can stay healthy – and the same goes for Maloney and Burton, knock, knock – the Twins bullpen, on the shoulders (literally) of some washouts and pickups, could look like a strength a month from now.