John Bonnes

Some spring training moves are bearing fruit. The question is when they will be most ripe? Glen Perkins hasn't been especially effective this year, but he still profiles as possible closer long term, with well over a strikeout per inning. Even better, this spring he signed a deal that keeps his salary team-controlled through 2016 at a level considerably below that of a closer. So how should the Twins play that? On the one hand, they could trade him now to a team that finds a left-handed reliever (with closer potential) especially appealing. Or they could turn him into a closer later the year and (provided he excels and stays healthy) he becomes even more valuable. Or, I suppose, the team could hang onto him in the hope that the next competitive Twins team could still have him around. But that is by far the riskiest of the choices. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins flexibility is enhanced by another spring addition. Jared Burton has been more effective than Perkins (or closer Matt Capps) this year, despite handling earlier innings. He also has quite a bit of history being an effective reliever from before he joined the Twins. Finally, with 28 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 26 innings this year, he also looks like a possible closer. Burton has another year after this one before he turns a free agent, and he just turned 31 years old. If the Twins were to ponder trading away Perkins any time over the next year, they could prepare by putting Burton in the same position that they put Perkins in spring training. Namely, offer him a long-term deal at a setup man's salary which puts him first in line when there is an opening at closer. Or, they could just shop him around at the trade deadline. Or I suppose they could keep him as Perkins insurance. In some ways, the road block here is Capps. With his closer role, he's blocking two guys who are probably going to be more effective. If the Twins can trade him - even if it is for very little - it allows them to increase the value of at least Perkins and put Burton in an heir apparent role, providing incentive for a long-term deal. And if he becomes the closer, and they mine the minors/waiver wire for yet another arm, they can move him.... This is how a non-competitive team can, fairly quickly, add core talent to their system. The team can afford to give relievers a chance to rediscover their stuff. They can afford to invest innings in them, even high leverage innings. And until the core pieces of a competitive team are in place, they can afford to let other competitive teams fight over these developed assets. The question isn't if they should do it. The question is when the fruit should be picked.

It was the end of the 2002 season. Jim Thome was finally a free agent after years of torturing the Twins. (And particularly, torturing Rick Reed. Good lord, did Big Jim take it to Reed. Thome hit more home runs (9) off of Reed than any other pitcher, even though he only had 27 at-bats against him. Think about that. He hit .333 JUST IN HOME RUNS against Rick Reed. Lordy.) Anyway, Thome was a free agent. As a blogger who is asked these sort of things all the time, I must have received the question "Will the Twins sign Jim Thome?" roughly a dozen times per week. Never mind that the Twins had made absolutely zero intimations that they intended to pursue Jim Thome. Or that the Twins had a left-handed DH at the time named David Ortiz. Or that the Twins still had no hint of a stadium. Hell, they had just barely survived contraction. And yet EVERYONE wanted me to tell them the Twins might chase Jim Thome, the biggest free agent on the market. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It speaks to how Jim Thome always SEEMED like a fit for the Twins, even when there was no practical way in which he was a fit for the Twins. He publicly heaped praise on how the Twins played the game. He hit the snot out of our ballpark. He looked adorable wearing flannel next to a blue ox. He was a perfect fit, except that he was just too damn good. He signed that year with the Phillies for $85 million dollars. It locked him up for six years…during which time he still managed to end another Twins season with a game winning home run in game 163 for the arch-rival White Sox. Of course. But when the contract ended, the 39-year-old was looking to reestablish his career. Spurned by the White Sox, quarantined from the National League, he finally found his way to the Twins. (By the way, well played Bill Smith.) Not only did his career get taken off of life support, it produced a number of memorable moments: Thome passing Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list, his blast off the flagpole on Labor Day, his 600th home run and best of all…. The home run off Matt Thornton that served as the dagger for the White Sox 2010 season. Hell, I would have raised Thome’s $1.6M salary just to hear Hawk Harrelson be rendered that utterly speechless in disgust. Some treasures cannot be bought. In a golden season for the Twins in so many ways, Thome added his own luster. And the next year, even in a season in decline, he served as a reminder of the dignity of the game. He’ll return to the Twin Cities tomorrow with his old/new team the Philadelphia Philles, giving us one more chance to reminisce about our favorite (and most painful) Thome moments. But don’t feel like you have to wait. That’s what the comments are for….

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' youth-led turnaround, Byron Buxton and the power arm-filled draft class, Trevor Plouffe's homer binge, Scott Diamond's ace impression, Chris Parmelee's return from Rochester, Ben Revere's long-term upside, Liam Hendriks' impending re-arrival, the wisdom of re-signing Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis in pitcher heaven, Brian Dozier's struggles, and the exciting life on Aaron's balcony. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

Last year in Twins Territory, Denard Span was the hot topic as the trade deadline approached, much to Span’s dismay. This year, we’ve read that the Nationals are still interested in Span. They certainly should be, given their stopgap centerfield solution, Rick Ankiel, is hitting just .221. But they likely aren’t going to be alone. Span plays a premier defensive position competently, but more importantly he gets on base as a leadoff hitter. One can bet a few of the below teams will at least be calling at the trade deadline this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a pretty fair centerfielder already, though Matt Kemp is out with a hamstring injury for at least a few weeks. What they don’t have is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t induce nausea. That job was speedster Dee Gordon’s to start the year, but he’s posted a .275 OBP, so they have turned it over to Tony Gwynn Jr. while he fills in for Kemp. Whether or not they need Span depends on whether you think Bobby Abreu, who was dropped by the Angels but has a 900+ OPS for the Dodgers in limited time, will turn back into a pumpkin. If Kemp stays out, Span can fill in for him. If Abreu grows old again, Span can play left field while leading off and Abreu comes off the bench. So stay tuned…. Dodgers Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Zach Lee – RHP – 4 stars Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – 3 stars Allen Webster – RHP – 3 stars Baltimore Orioles Like the Dodgers, the Orioles also have a center fielder having an MVP caliber year. But the Orioles also have big problems at their leadoff spot, with a combined OBP of just .253. Most of that can be blamed on Endy Chavez, though Robert Andino (.304 OBP) has done his share of damage, too. Again, the problem becomes finding a place for Span to play, though that doesn't appear to be a problem this year. A spot just opened up in right field where Nick Markakis was just put on the DL due to wrist surgery. There has also been a spot for a month in left field, where Nolan Reimold has been out with a bulging disk in his neck that has required multiple epidurals. Span could fit in with the Orioles long term there as Reimold is now 28 years old and has bounced between the majors and minors a bit in recent years. Orioles Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Dylan Buncy – RHP – 5 stars Manny Machado – SS – 5 starts Jonathan Schoop – INF – 4 stars Cincinnati Reds The Reds lead the NL Cental with Drew Stubbs, a 27-year-old with a .300 OBP as their center fielder. He now has 1500 major league at-bats and a .249 career batting average. And believe it or not, he’s not the big problem. By the way, you’re warned – CAPS heavy sentence coming up. The big problem is the number .214. CUMATIVELY, that is the ON-BASE PERCENTAGE from the Reds LEAD-OFF hitters. It is as if every person they put atop the lineup becomes Drew Butera. Except that isn’t fair to Butera, whose career OBP is .231. I don’t know what to add to that. I’m a little stunned. How can they not get Joey Votto and Jay Bruce a little help? Let’s get to the prospects…. Reds Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Billy Hamilton – SS – 5 stars Devin Mesoraco – C – 5 stars Zach Cozart – SS – 3 stars (Huh. This is the guy who is leading off for the Reds, so let’s go one more...) Robert Stephenson – RHP – 3 stars

Of the last decade's drafts, I think it’s safe to say that the two first round picks for which the Twins took the most immediate heat were 2001 and 2007. It might be worth noting just how ridiculous that looks right now. In 2001, the Twins took Joe Mauer as the #1 pick and were lambasted for being too damn cheap and possibly blinded by a local kid. In 2007, the fiscal-based criticism was similar when they drafted Ben Revere "above slot" and it was compounded by a perception that the Twins were way too happy with their annoying little Piranhas and devoid of power. But if you take a look at first round picks the Twins have made, Mauer and Revere currently rank among some of the best, even given Revere’s limited role so far. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The problem with writing about the draft the day after is that you’re writing in a void. After all, we have very little idea what these players will become. And when confronted with a void, the human mind creates a reality. So we start with rankings culled by a few media members and bloggers who are sensitive to what other media member and bloggers perceive. Then we extend realities from the ones we perceive while following the club, especially when they are supported by rankings. So which realities do you want to embrace? You could go with the “Twins Love Toolsy Outfielders” paradigm, which explains why the Twins nabbed high school prep star Byron Buxton. If you're disappointed by Aaron Hicks, then that's a bad thing. If you admire Denard Span or Torii Hunter, then that's a good thing. But, of course, neither Span nor Hunter nor Hicks have any impact on the development of Buxton. Or you could go with the “Twins Are Too Cheap” which explains why they didn’t select Scott Boras client Mark Appel with the #2 pick and leaves you feeling a little bitter. It explains why the next two picks - Puerto Rican high school pitcher Jose Orlando Berrios and college relief pitcher Luke Bard - were chosen slightly above where they had been ranked by Baseball America and other ranking systems. By doing so, the Twins might save money since these players don’t have that high bonus expectations others might have had. Or it could be that the Twins didn't agree with Baseball America's rankings. There will be others realities someone will want to extend. I'm quite sure someone will absolutely find a “Pitch To Contact” trend, though I think it’s going to take some imagination. More obvious is the “Twins Are Oblivious” since they didn’t come out of the first day with a college starting pitcher. Or a “Twins Are Medical Quacks” since third pick, Bard, is down with non-arm injury. I’m looking forward to reading them. But the longer I do this, the more I conclude that none of them are legitimate. Here’s what happened yesterday: the Twins nabbed some black boxes. Or maybe a better analogy would be some junk bond portfolios. Some are very promising, highly graded, with a possible high payout. Some are less so. Twenty-nine other traders did the same thing. They did so based on experience and insider information that we have little access to. Our perceptions on what drove them or didn’t drive them are probably wrong. More than likely, they looked at these opaque boxes, shook them a bit, and picked the ones they like best. Now we get to wait to see what’s in them.

With the second overall pick in the 2012, the Minnesota Twins selected high school outfielder Byron Buxton out of Appling County High School in Baxley, Georgia. In doing so, they chose one of the consensus most talented prospects, but one with his share of risks. Buxton’s athleticism has earned comparisons to Eric Davis, Matt Kemp and even Willie Mays. (Read that last sentence again.) He is blessed with speed that is among the top seen in a prospect and an arm that has hit 97 miles per hour when throwing from a mound. He projects to stay in center field. He’s dominated his competition, and shows all the physical traits of a natural hitter who should add power. Like most first round picks, he is not without risks. Even again sub-standard competition, he only hit three home runs in his senior year. But he shows significantly more power in BP and in a home run Derby in Wrigley he hit the last row of the left field bleachers with one blast., finishing second in that competition. He is obviously far away from contributing to a big league club and the Twins as an organization are more starved for pitching talent than hitting talent. Opinions vary slightly on the top talent at the draft, but nearly everybody had him listed as a top three position player and most listed him at #1. Also, there is almost nobody who doesn’t believe he has the highest upside of anyone in the draft. At the very least, the Twins chose one of the most interesting players available. For more on Buxton, check out this summary of him by the Houston Astros blog Crawfish Boxes. For a more entertaining read, including a few mind-blowing non-baseball examples of Buxton’s athletic ability, check out this Sports Illustrated story.

Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton versus Mark Appel versus Carlos Correa, why Monday is the most important day of the Twins' season, first-hand scouting reports on Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and the Beloit team from special guest Seth Stohs, how Carl Pavano is the new Shannon Stewart, what to make of Francisco Liriano's impressive start, their PickPointz MVP picks, Ben Revere's bunting, and how Aaron looks in a black evening gown. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The June 4, 2012 edition of Sports Illustrated had a story by Tom Verducci where he attempts to document... well, he's a better writer than I'll ever be, so let's let him tell you... “This is a story about the real cost of steroids in baseball -- not the broken records, not the litigation, not the talk-show drone about the elite players who juiced and how to weigh their Hall of Fame candidacy. This is a story about the hundreds, even thousands, of anonymous ballplayers whose careers and lives were changed by a temptation that defined an era. It is also a story about the secrets we keep and the casualties we create when we allow the corrupt to go unspoken -- especially when the corrupt is something far more horrific than steroids.” The story is especially interesting to Twins fans because it is mostly about Dan Naulty, a reliever from the Twins from 1996-98 who came up through the Twins farm system. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It compares his career to those of three similar Twins pitching prospects from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle. Because of offseason steroid use, Naulty added about 60 pounds to his frame, 10 mph to his velocity and carved out a four-year career as a reliever. None of the other three made the majors, topping out in AAA, and the piece tries to focus on how a generation of clean players were cheated in their attempts to reach the majors, sometimes by teammates like Naulty who were covertly injecting steroids. But is also documents the costs to Naulty and this is the most comprehensive part of the story. It talks about why Naulty turned to steroids - how desperate he was and how few options he felt like he had. It also mentions personal challenges he had faced from childhood, including episodes of being sexually abused. It follows his major league career, which turned into an addiction cycle between performance-enhancing amphetamines and alcohol. It talks about him hitting rock bottom the night after winning the 1999 World Series and talking about suicide. And it talks about his recovery, his honesty in the Mitchell Report, and his new career as a pastor. Tangentially, it talks about the Twins organization at the time, but Verducci refrains from pointing any fingers. There are some details that probably make Twins officials cringe a bit. Verducci points out that of the six players from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle who made at least $500,000 in their MLB careers, at least three (Naulty, Matt Lawton and Dan Serafini) are know PED users. However, especially in the naïve 90s, it's certainly feasible that Twins officials didn't recognize that Naulty’s offseason gains were due to drug use. His fellow pitchers certainly didn't. Brett Roberts, one of the fellow prospects that Verducci followed, reacted to the news about Naulty: "I guess I should have been suspicious. How can a guy go from 85 miles an hour to 95 in three or four years? As I look back on it, it's so clear and obvious that I can't believe I was that naive and incredibly stupid. All the signs were there." Roberts, who made it as far as AAA but no further, talks later about how cheated he feels. “’It's cheating,’ says Roberts, who bristles at the steroid users who made it. ‘It sticks in my craw because I know how hard I worked. Was I going to be a guy with a five- to 10-year career? Probably not. But I know I could have been there.’" That is another point of the story – how thin the line can be between making the majors and not making the majors, and how tempting it can be to do whatever it takes to cross that line. Later in the article, Verducci talks about how Naulty joined a Yankees prayer group that included Andy Pettitte, Mike Stanton and Jason Grimsley – all of whom found their names in the Mitchell Report. Nobody was immune. It’s a thorough, well-researched story and worth the half hour it will take you to read it. If you’re ready to dive into a depth beyond the effects steroids have on the record books, check it out. You can find the on line version here. ~~~ Twins Daily already has a lively discussion on this story. You can add to it here.