John Bonnes

I don’t want to trade Justin Morneau. I don’t want to be rational about it. I want to clutch onto his comeback, keep it for my own, separate it and gaze at it among the dreck that this (and probably next) season has become. I’ve waited for this, I’ve craved it, and dammit, now I want it. We’ll see if I feel the same way in a couple of months, because that’s when the decision will need to be made. For there to be a decision, Morneau needs stay healthy, and he needs show the same kind of production occasionally that he’s shown this week. Those are two huge “Ifs.” And even then, would there be a market for his $14 million/year contract that goes through 2013? I think so. A quick look at the standings and depth charts show a few teams that might be interested. Let’s count down the top four that jump out at me…. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] #4 – Pittsburgh Pirates – I doubt that the Pirates, who only have a $51 million payroll, would be willing to take on Morneau’s $14 million salary. I also don’t know if they view themselves as in contention, sporting a .500 record. But right now, they are just three games back of the Reds in a very weak NL Central. And their first base situation is a complete disaster: right-handed hitting Casey McGehee is hitting .184 and left-handed hitting Garret Jones is hitting .189 this May. If the Pirates find themselves close to contention at the end of July, their will be a lot of pressure to do something to boost their anemic offense, and it should start at first base. If the Twins can help the Pirates with the Morneau’s salary, one would think they could be compensated with some decent prospects. #3 - Cleveland Indians – This is a developing situation. First baseman Casey Kotchman has been ineffective. They also have Matt LaPorta, who is raking in AAA, but has a career line of .238/.304/.397 in the majors. Plus, at 27 years old, it’s not like he’s really a prospect any more – more like another option. Their big left-handed bat, Travis Hafner, is just coming back from an injury, and his health is always a question mark. And all bets are off if Carlos Santana has his own concussion problems. But with there are enough ingredients here to keep a watchful eye. Their first base situation is terrible. They’re contending. Hafner’s salary comes off the books next year. They showed last year they’ll be aggressive when it comes to trades. With the right mix, they could be very interested in acquiring, even overpaying, for Morneau. #2 Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t know if Toronto, who is a game over .500 but in fourth place in their division, really views themselves as being a contender. But if ever they were going to make a push, it might be a good idea to do so in a year that there are two wild card teams and the Red Sox are busy imploding. Their initial first base solution, Adam Lind, was demoted to AAA. Morneau’s left-handed bat would look pretty nice with the right-handed bats of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Oh, and I don’t know if you’ve heard this or not, but Morneau is from Canada. #1 Miami Marlins – Here’s the right mix of contention, spending and frustration. The Marlins trail the Nationals by just a couple of games. They have certainly signaled to the baseball world this offseason that they aren’t afraid to spend some money in their new ballpark. And 24-year-old prospect Logan Morrison is declining in his third major league year, hitting just .233 with a .323 slugging percentage. Finally, their lineup is desperately in need of a strong left-handed bat to balance the right-handed bats of Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton. The NL East looks like it’s going to be a bit of a mess all year, and winnable by any number of teams. (In fact, I could probably add a fifth team from that division – the Mets – to this list if I thought they were for real.) A pickup like Morneau is the kind of puzzle piece that GMs in that situation can get awfully excited about.

Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's resurgence, the Twins' options with the No. 2 pick, Jason Marquis' departure, Francisco Liriano's move back into the rotation, the best baseball movies of all time, first impressions of Cole De Vries, their PickPointz MVP picks, Johan Santana's return to greatness, and why Anthony Slama can't catch a break. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

It was a risk without an acceptable backup plan. The Twins knew that. And it failed. And they’re paying the price. And that price is a .192 batting average. That’s the combined batting average of whoever the Twins have played in right field so far. It’s last in the majors. Their combined OPS is .594. That’s the career OPS of Juan Castro. And there isn’t anything close to a solution in sight unless the Twins want to mess with their best hitter. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Two weeks before the end of spring training, the Twins shuffled the roster, deciding that Josh Willingham would move back to left field and Chris Parmelee would come north with the club as first baseman, essentially replacing Ben Revere in the starting lineup. The plan would work because Ryan Doumit had the flexibility to play a somewhat passable right field. At the time, it looked like a solid way to boost the Twins lineup, if Parmelee hit. When Parmelee fell flat early in the season, the plan went to hell. To his credit, Gardenhire has done a decent job playing musical chairs but any give night, there is position left standing. That position is right field. Seven players have started there and none of them have more than 13 starts. The projected starter, Ryan Doumit, only has six starts because on any given day there is a spot open at designated hitter or catcher that he can fill. And there is no use having him stumble around right field when it only means a questionable bench player will end up as the DH. The guy with the most starts is Trevor Plouffe. He would be the best option right now except: He’s hitting .152. He hasn’t shown any ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s usually already at another spot in the field, playing an infield position now that Danny Valencia is in AAA. Seventeen starts have been taken by Darin Mastroianni, Eric Komatsu and Clete Thomas. They could all be valuable role players. None of them should be starting consistently in 2012 for a major league team. That leaves Revere, who has all of seven starts. Defensively, right field is a terrible position for Revere, as it limits his biggest asset (his range) and emphasizes his biggest weakness (his arm). Also, the jury is still out regarding Revere’s offense. He returned to AAA and hit .330 this year, but still hasn’t shown any ability to get on base beyond posting a crazy high batting average. Getting on base needs to be his game. The best option goes back to the original plan: moving Revere to left field where his defense makes him a real asset and having Willingham play right field. But I’ll excuse Gardenhire for not wanting to jack his cleanup (and best) hitter around. Like a lot of things the team is dealing with this year, there isn’t an easy solution. Even with a lineup that has stayed remarkably healthy, the Twins find themselves one legitimate bat short of a major league lineup on a consistent basis.

Aaron and John talk about Jason Marquis' implosion and the state of an increasingly ugly rotation, Drew Butera and Ben Revere turning into Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron, how the Twins handled Chris Parmelee, the Van Halen concert-going experience, Nick Blackburn's return to the disabled list, their PickPointz MVP picks, and Lewwwwww! Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not. A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I was reading titled Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. This writeup is going to copy a lot of that story. The book is similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. If you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much changed forever how I watch baseball. The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book: “In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?” Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death. The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it. In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are. A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data. The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time. The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission. Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts. This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call.

I don’t know if these are questions, or thoughts, of forum topics, but after a 13-hour day, I’m pretty much free associating. Let’s see what happens. Because Fourth Place Is Just Five Games Away? Why is Carl Pavano pitching? The Twins long term strategy regarding Pavano needs to be to have him demonstrate enough success to get some value for him at the trade deadline, right? What is the purpose of trotting him out there at 80% to look below average? Get him healthy, let him string a strong month or so together and then shop him in July. Doesn’t this have to be the strategy? Why isn’t this the strategy? Or Maybe It Was Andy’s Whoopie Cushion. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Liriano was Liriano. To me, the most encouraging sign wasn’t that he got the first five guys out, or that he bounced back to get out of the second inning after almost completely falling apart, or that he struck out three guys. It was that he smiled and laughed on the bench with Rick Anderson for the first time since last May. Including The Door On Your Wait Out. Capps hasn’t been bad this year, though last night was the second game he cost the Twins. I won’t site how many games he’s “saved” as evidence, but I think it’s worth noting that his WPA is still in positive territory even after losing 30 points last night. Mostly he’s still just Matt Capps – he has been for years, so he should know how by now. For all the talk about his new pitch, he’s got the same strikeout rate, a high home run rate and though he’s walking fewer guys. To me, he’s in the same boat as Pavano – the team needs to do whatever they can to boost his value, and if that means closing, then close away. Plus, We’ll Resemble The Pirates Ryan Doumit’s OPS is up to 763 after last night’s game, which is a lot closer to the bat I thought we were getting. That’s a season high mark – he was as low as 550 before he broke out in that Sunday game in Seattle, which was just a little over a week ago. But the better news is that he’s worked out far better than I ever thought he would so far. His defense at catcher is better than we had heard. He’s hitting left-handers better than I had anticipated (albeit without any power). And he’s been healthy. He’s also been the ideal guy to play on a team with Joe Mauer. I’m anxious to move a lot of guys at the trade deadline, but Doumit isn’t one of them. I don’t know what it would take to sign the 31-year-old, and I’d want to limit the years, but he looks like a hell of a good fit for this team for the next few years.

Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny Valencia's demotion to Triple-A and Francisco Liriano's move to the bullpen, get a call from Aaron's mom for Mother's Day, marvel at Scott Diamond's unexpected gems, make their PickPointz picks and name last week's winners, and wonder what the future holds for Trevor Plouffe and Joe Benson. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

At some (very depressing) point, as a season turns into an extended offseason, the focus needs to change. For the Twins, that change has been coming since the middle of last week. The turning point was tonight. At some point, the focus changes from the team to the players. The moves become less about what the team needs, and more about what each player needs. It doesn’t necessarily mean coming down on one side or the other, but the balance changes. That balance changed tonight. Tonight third baseman Danny Valencia was sent to AAA-Rochester and starting pitcher Francisco Liriano was sent to the bullpen. I like both moves, because I agree with the change in focus. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] I don’t know if Valencia is ever going to be a competent starting third baseman in the majors. Nobody does. But I sure used to think so. This move isn’t a punishment – it’s a release. Valencia is hitting .198, 50 points lower than last year, which was 50 points lower than 2010. As bad as that is, that’s not the most alarming of his statistics. He’s also struck out 23 times in 96 AB – and walked just twice. I don’t know what he needs, but he isn’t finding it here. I won’t argue with those suggesting that it’s foolish for a club to invest time in a 27-year-old’s career in AAA. But at this point, one needs to try things. Maybe AAA might reestablish Valencia’s confidence. With literally zero third base options in the Twins pipeline until at least 2014, why not try it? Which is exactly the philosophy for the other big move. Liriano is moved to the bullpen to try and regain some …. well, name it what you will. Confidence? Mojo? Momentum? Or, if you're especially cynical: Equity? They all work. The Twins and Liriano have tried everything else, and short of demoting him (which I suspect he and his agent would resist) this is the last option. If you’re of the opinion that Liriano needs to be traded for something valuable, I gotta think you like this move. Maybe Liriano can build some value. A decent reliever is valuable at the trade deadline. Even more so if he’s a southpaw. His value certainly can’t decrease. As for the rest – meh. Matt Maloney was the odd man out with another lefty moving to the bullpen. That's unlucky for him. I like Darin Mastoianni as a infield/outfield utility guy, though his infield coverage is limited. One can argue whether he’s the best fit, but I’m getting weary of sweating where deck chairs should be moved. PJ Walters must have had the right mix of control, BABIP and veterany goodness to make him the default pick for the open rotation spot. That's not the way I would go, but I’m not nearly as close to this situation, and it's close to a tie. Whatever. The bad news is that these look more and more like the moves of a last place team looking to the future. The good news is that is probably the correct philosophy to embrace. The focus is changing from the team to the individuals, and for both of these individuals, the change in focus looks to be wise.