John Bonnes

Of the last decade's drafts, I think it’s safe to say that the two first round picks for which the Twins took the most immediate heat were 2001 and 2007. It might be worth noting just how ridiculous that looks right now. In 2001, the Twins took Joe Mauer as the #1 pick and were lambasted for being too damn cheap and possibly blinded by a local kid. In 2007, the fiscal-based criticism was similar when they drafted Ben Revere "above slot" and it was compounded by a perception that the Twins were way too happy with their annoying little Piranhas and devoid of power. But if you take a look at first round picks the Twins have made, Mauer and Revere currently rank among some of the best, even given Revere’s limited role so far. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The problem with writing about the draft the day after is that you’re writing in a void. After all, we have very little idea what these players will become. And when confronted with a void, the human mind creates a reality. So we start with rankings culled by a few media members and bloggers who are sensitive to what other media member and bloggers perceive. Then we extend realities from the ones we perceive while following the club, especially when they are supported by rankings. So which realities do you want to embrace? You could go with the “Twins Love Toolsy Outfielders” paradigm, which explains why the Twins nabbed high school prep star Byron Buxton. If you're disappointed by Aaron Hicks, then that's a bad thing. If you admire Denard Span or Torii Hunter, then that's a good thing. But, of course, neither Span nor Hunter nor Hicks have any impact on the development of Buxton. Or you could go with the “Twins Are Too Cheap” which explains why they didn’t select Scott Boras client Mark Appel with the #2 pick and leaves you feeling a little bitter. It explains why the next two picks - Puerto Rican high school pitcher Jose Orlando Berrios and college relief pitcher Luke Bard - were chosen slightly above where they had been ranked by Baseball America and other ranking systems. By doing so, the Twins might save money since these players don’t have that high bonus expectations others might have had. Or it could be that the Twins didn't agree with Baseball America's rankings. There will be others realities someone will want to extend. I'm quite sure someone will absolutely find a “Pitch To Contact” trend, though I think it’s going to take some imagination. More obvious is the “Twins Are Oblivious” since they didn’t come out of the first day with a college starting pitcher. Or a “Twins Are Medical Quacks” since third pick, Bard, is down with non-arm injury. I’m looking forward to reading them. But the longer I do this, the more I conclude that none of them are legitimate. Here’s what happened yesterday: the Twins nabbed some black boxes. Or maybe a better analogy would be some junk bond portfolios. Some are very promising, highly graded, with a possible high payout. Some are less so. Twenty-nine other traders did the same thing. They did so based on experience and insider information that we have little access to. Our perceptions on what drove them or didn’t drive them are probably wrong. More than likely, they looked at these opaque boxes, shook them a bit, and picked the ones they like best. Now we get to wait to see what’s in them.

With the second overall pick in the 2012, the Minnesota Twins selected high school outfielder Byron Buxton out of Appling County High School in Baxley, Georgia. In doing so, they chose one of the consensus most talented prospects, but one with his share of risks. Buxton’s athleticism has earned comparisons to Eric Davis, Matt Kemp and even Willie Mays. (Read that last sentence again.) He is blessed with speed that is among the top seen in a prospect and an arm that has hit 97 miles per hour when throwing from a mound. He projects to stay in center field. He’s dominated his competition, and shows all the physical traits of a natural hitter who should add power. Like most first round picks, he is not without risks. Even again sub-standard competition, he only hit three home runs in his senior year. But he shows significantly more power in BP and in a home run Derby in Wrigley he hit the last row of the left field bleachers with one blast., finishing second in that competition. He is obviously far away from contributing to a big league club and the Twins as an organization are more starved for pitching talent than hitting talent. Opinions vary slightly on the top talent at the draft, but nearly everybody had him listed as a top three position player and most listed him at #1. Also, there is almost nobody who doesn’t believe he has the highest upside of anyone in the draft. At the very least, the Twins chose one of the most interesting players available. For more on Buxton, check out this summary of him by the Houston Astros blog Crawfish Boxes. For a more entertaining read, including a few mind-blowing non-baseball examples of Buxton’s athletic ability, check out this Sports Illustrated story.

Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton versus Mark Appel versus Carlos Correa, why Monday is the most important day of the Twins' season, first-hand scouting reports on Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and the Beloit team from special guest Seth Stohs, how Carl Pavano is the new Shannon Stewart, what to make of Francisco Liriano's impressive start, their PickPointz MVP picks, Ben Revere's bunting, and how Aaron looks in a black evening gown. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The June 4, 2012 edition of Sports Illustrated had a story by Tom Verducci where he attempts to document... well, he's a better writer than I'll ever be, so let's let him tell you... “This is a story about the real cost of steroids in baseball -- not the broken records, not the litigation, not the talk-show drone about the elite players who juiced and how to weigh their Hall of Fame candidacy. This is a story about the hundreds, even thousands, of anonymous ballplayers whose careers and lives were changed by a temptation that defined an era. It is also a story about the secrets we keep and the casualties we create when we allow the corrupt to go unspoken -- especially when the corrupt is something far more horrific than steroids.” The story is especially interesting to Twins fans because it is mostly about Dan Naulty, a reliever from the Twins from 1996-98 who came up through the Twins farm system. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It compares his career to those of three similar Twins pitching prospects from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle. Because of offseason steroid use, Naulty added about 60 pounds to his frame, 10 mph to his velocity and carved out a four-year career as a reliever. None of the other three made the majors, topping out in AAA, and the piece tries to focus on how a generation of clean players were cheated in their attempts to reach the majors, sometimes by teammates like Naulty who were covertly injecting steroids. But is also documents the costs to Naulty and this is the most comprehensive part of the story. It talks about why Naulty turned to steroids - how desperate he was and how few options he felt like he had. It also mentions personal challenges he had faced from childhood, including episodes of being sexually abused. It follows his major league career, which turned into an addiction cycle between performance-enhancing amphetamines and alcohol. It talks about him hitting rock bottom the night after winning the 1999 World Series and talking about suicide. And it talks about his recovery, his honesty in the Mitchell Report, and his new career as a pastor. Tangentially, it talks about the Twins organization at the time, but Verducci refrains from pointing any fingers. There are some details that probably make Twins officials cringe a bit. Verducci points out that of the six players from the 1994 Fort Myers Miracle who made at least $500,000 in their MLB careers, at least three (Naulty, Matt Lawton and Dan Serafini) are know PED users. However, especially in the naïve 90s, it's certainly feasible that Twins officials didn't recognize that Naulty’s offseason gains were due to drug use. His fellow pitchers certainly didn't. Brett Roberts, one of the fellow prospects that Verducci followed, reacted to the news about Naulty: "I guess I should have been suspicious. How can a guy go from 85 miles an hour to 95 in three or four years? As I look back on it, it's so clear and obvious that I can't believe I was that naive and incredibly stupid. All the signs were there." Roberts, who made it as far as AAA but no further, talks later about how cheated he feels. “’It's cheating,’ says Roberts, who bristles at the steroid users who made it. ‘It sticks in my craw because I know how hard I worked. Was I going to be a guy with a five- to 10-year career? Probably not. But I know I could have been there.’" That is another point of the story – how thin the line can be between making the majors and not making the majors, and how tempting it can be to do whatever it takes to cross that line. Later in the article, Verducci talks about how Naulty joined a Yankees prayer group that included Andy Pettitte, Mike Stanton and Jason Grimsley – all of whom found their names in the Mitchell Report. Nobody was immune. It’s a thorough, well-researched story and worth the half hour it will take you to read it. If you’re ready to dive into a depth beyond the effects steroids have on the record books, check it out. You can find the on line version here. ~~~ Twins Daily already has a lively discussion on this story. You can add to it here.

I don’t want to trade Justin Morneau. I don’t want to be rational about it. I want to clutch onto his comeback, keep it for my own, separate it and gaze at it among the dreck that this (and probably next) season has become. I’ve waited for this, I’ve craved it, and dammit, now I want it. We’ll see if I feel the same way in a couple of months, because that’s when the decision will need to be made. For there to be a decision, Morneau needs stay healthy, and he needs show the same kind of production occasionally that he’s shown this week. Those are two huge “Ifs.” And even then, would there be a market for his $14 million/year contract that goes through 2013? I think so. A quick look at the standings and depth charts show a few teams that might be interested. Let’s count down the top four that jump out at me…. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] #4 – Pittsburgh Pirates – I doubt that the Pirates, who only have a $51 million payroll, would be willing to take on Morneau’s $14 million salary. I also don’t know if they view themselves as in contention, sporting a .500 record. But right now, they are just three games back of the Reds in a very weak NL Central. And their first base situation is a complete disaster: right-handed hitting Casey McGehee is hitting .184 and left-handed hitting Garret Jones is hitting .189 this May. If the Pirates find themselves close to contention at the end of July, their will be a lot of pressure to do something to boost their anemic offense, and it should start at first base. If the Twins can help the Pirates with the Morneau’s salary, one would think they could be compensated with some decent prospects. #3 - Cleveland Indians – This is a developing situation. First baseman Casey Kotchman has been ineffective. They also have Matt LaPorta, who is raking in AAA, but has a career line of .238/.304/.397 in the majors. Plus, at 27 years old, it’s not like he’s really a prospect any more – more like another option. Their big left-handed bat, Travis Hafner, is just coming back from an injury, and his health is always a question mark. And all bets are off if Carlos Santana has his own concussion problems. But with there are enough ingredients here to keep a watchful eye. Their first base situation is terrible. They’re contending. Hafner’s salary comes off the books next year. They showed last year they’ll be aggressive when it comes to trades. With the right mix, they could be very interested in acquiring, even overpaying, for Morneau. #2 Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t know if Toronto, who is a game over .500 but in fourth place in their division, really views themselves as being a contender. But if ever they were going to make a push, it might be a good idea to do so in a year that there are two wild card teams and the Red Sox are busy imploding. Their initial first base solution, Adam Lind, was demoted to AAA. Morneau’s left-handed bat would look pretty nice with the right-handed bats of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Oh, and I don’t know if you’ve heard this or not, but Morneau is from Canada. #1 Miami Marlins – Here’s the right mix of contention, spending and frustration. The Marlins trail the Nationals by just a couple of games. They have certainly signaled to the baseball world this offseason that they aren’t afraid to spend some money in their new ballpark. And 24-year-old prospect Logan Morrison is declining in his third major league year, hitting just .233 with a .323 slugging percentage. Finally, their lineup is desperately in need of a strong left-handed bat to balance the right-handed bats of Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton. The NL East looks like it’s going to be a bit of a mess all year, and winnable by any number of teams. (In fact, I could probably add a fifth team from that division – the Mets – to this list if I thought they were for real.) A pickup like Morneau is the kind of puzzle piece that GMs in that situation can get awfully excited about.

Aaron and John talk about Justin Morneau's resurgence, the Twins' options with the No. 2 pick, Jason Marquis' departure, Francisco Liriano's move back into the rotation, the best baseball movies of all time, first impressions of Cole De Vries, their PickPointz MVP picks, Johan Santana's return to greatness, and why Anthony Slama can't catch a break. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

It was a risk without an acceptable backup plan. The Twins knew that. And it failed. And they’re paying the price. And that price is a .192 batting average. That’s the combined batting average of whoever the Twins have played in right field so far. It’s last in the majors. Their combined OPS is .594. That’s the career OPS of Juan Castro. And there isn’t anything close to a solution in sight unless the Twins want to mess with their best hitter. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Two weeks before the end of spring training, the Twins shuffled the roster, deciding that Josh Willingham would move back to left field and Chris Parmelee would come north with the club as first baseman, essentially replacing Ben Revere in the starting lineup. The plan would work because Ryan Doumit had the flexibility to play a somewhat passable right field. At the time, it looked like a solid way to boost the Twins lineup, if Parmelee hit. When Parmelee fell flat early in the season, the plan went to hell. To his credit, Gardenhire has done a decent job playing musical chairs but any give night, there is position left standing. That position is right field. Seven players have started there and none of them have more than 13 starts. The projected starter, Ryan Doumit, only has six starts because on any given day there is a spot open at designated hitter or catcher that he can fill. And there is no use having him stumble around right field when it only means a questionable bench player will end up as the DH. The guy with the most starts is Trevor Plouffe. He would be the best option right now except: He’s hitting .152. He hasn’t shown any ability to hit right-handed pitching. He’s usually already at another spot in the field, playing an infield position now that Danny Valencia is in AAA. Seventeen starts have been taken by Darin Mastroianni, Eric Komatsu and Clete Thomas. They could all be valuable role players. None of them should be starting consistently in 2012 for a major league team. That leaves Revere, who has all of seven starts. Defensively, right field is a terrible position for Revere, as it limits his biggest asset (his range) and emphasizes his biggest weakness (his arm). Also, the jury is still out regarding Revere’s offense. He returned to AAA and hit .330 this year, but still hasn’t shown any ability to get on base beyond posting a crazy high batting average. Getting on base needs to be his game. The best option goes back to the original plan: moving Revere to left field where his defense makes him a real asset and having Willingham play right field. But I’ll excuse Gardenhire for not wanting to jack his cleanup (and best) hitter around. Like a lot of things the team is dealing with this year, there isn’t an easy solution. Even with a lineup that has stayed remarkably healthy, the Twins find themselves one legitimate bat short of a major league lineup on a consistent basis.

Aaron and John talk about Jason Marquis' implosion and the state of an increasingly ugly rotation, Drew Butera and Ben Revere turning into Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron, how the Twins handled Chris Parmelee, the Van Halen concert-going experience, Nick Blackburn's return to the disabled list, their PickPointz MVP picks, and Lewwwwww! Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

There is no question that umpires have biases. The question is whether we want them or not. A couple of years ago I reported on a book that I was reading titled Scorecasting by Tobias J Moskowitz and L. Jon Weerthem. This writeup is going to copy a lot of that story. The book is similar to the book Freakonomics, except that it focuses exclusively on sports. If you have an iPad or iPhone, you can download the first chapter for free – and just that much changed forever how I watch baseball. The chapter is about a bias that umpires have because they are, with the possible exception of Joe West, human. And humans are far more willing to forgive an error of omission over an error of commission.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] That is, we are more willing to forgive an error caused by doing nothing over an error caused by doing something. And thus humans are for more willing to commit an error of omission over an error of commission, because it gets us into less trouble. I’ll give an example from the book: “In a well-known psychological experiment, the subjects were posed the following question: Imagine there have been several epidemics of a certain kind of flu that everyone contracts and that can be fatal to children under three years of age. About 10 out of every 10,000 children with this flu will die from it. A vaccine for the flu, which eliminates the change of getting it, causes death in 5 or every 10,000 children. Would you vaccinate your child?” Most parents opted to NOT to vaccinate their child, despite it halving the chances of their child dying. The thought of doing something to the child which would cause his or her death was worse than the though of doing nothing and doubling the chances of death. The same bias is statistically apparent in umpires when it comes to calling balls and strikes and now I can’t help but notice it. In 2007, mlb.com installed the pitch f/x equipment in all the ballparks, providing data on 2 million pitches, including 1.15 million called pitches. Suddenly we could see from data how accurate umpires were in calling balls and strikes, and whether there are any circumstances that made them less accurate. It turns out there are. A ball that is in the strike zone is called accurately by an umpire 80.2% of the time. But that number dives if there are two strikes on the batter (and it isn’t a full count). Then, a ball in the strike zone is called a strike just 61.3% of the time. He’s almost twice as likely to mistakenly count a strike as a ball. Again, don’t forget – we KNOW that these are really strikes from the f/x data. The same thing happens the other way on pitches outside the strike zone on three-ball counts, though it’s not quite so drastic. A pitch outside the strike zone is called a ball 87.8% of the time, but if there are three balls (and it’s not a full count) it’s only called a ball 84% of the time. The reason? Because calling strike three or ball four ends the at-bat. It’s active – it affects the game far more than giving the batter and pitcher another pitch to resolve the at-bat themselves. The incentive is toward the error of omission rather than that of commission. Incidentally, this is most apparent on borderline pitches. Over all counts, a borderline is called a strike 49.9% of the time – almost literally a coin flip. But with a 2-strike count (again not a full count) it’s called a strike just 38.2% of the time. And with a three ball count, it’s called a strike 60% of the time. The percentages become even more extreme on 3-0 and 0-2 counts. This may be a bias that we, as fans, want to reward. For the first time, I thought about whether or not I really want to take that kind of call out of an umpire’s hands. Don’t we want someone who prompts the batter and pitcher to resolve their conflicts themselves? Even if it might not be a perfectly accurate call.