John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about Joe Mauer making the All-Star team while Josh Willingham got snubbed, Aaron's vodka-filled experience at the SABR convention in Minneapolis, Ryan Doumit's contract extension, John returning from his East Coast ballpark tour, Trevor Plouffe staying hot, whether the Twins should be in full-on sell mode, the Francisco Liriano dilemma, and why Pizza Luce at 3:00 am is a bad life decision. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

The Big Picture Stop me if this sounds familiar. A team with championship aspirations faces a slew of injuries to their best players. They find themselves last in their division but hope that the players return will boost them back into contention. At the trade deadline they must make a tough decision: stick to the plan or write off a season in a championship era whose window could be closing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Yep - the Phillies are having the year the Twins had last year. But instead of a fan base of Minnesota stoics, they play in the City of Brotherly Love. You can imagine how pleasant that is. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Phillies are walking a delicate line. Despite injuries to superstar second baseman Chase Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard and ace pitcher Roy Halladay, the Philadelphia is only six games under .500 and just 5.5 games back of the wild card. They hope to have Utley back on Wednesday, Howard beginning a rehab assignment this week and Halladay returning in the middle of July. If they get healthy, and the Phils simply tread water for the next month, it will be awfully hard for them to give up on the season. Traditionally, the Phillies have had trouble finding good right-handed hitting to offset Utley and Howard’s left-handed bats. But they traded for Hunter Pence last year and he has an 803 OPS and catcher Carlos Ruiz has a (unsustainable) 978 OPS to lead the team. Add in that Juan Pierre is playing left field (and hitting .322) and it’s hard to see a fit for Josh Willingham, though in previous years he would’ve been an obvious fit. But what if Howard can’t come back strong, or if this injury (which has repeatedly defied expectations) looks like it might take more time than just this season to heal? If so, Justin Morneau would be a hell of a replacement for him, and it’s not like his $14 million salary would be much of a problem for the phree-spending Phils. Other options include Ryan Doumit if Carlos Ruiz' ribcage strain becomes a problem. The Phillies setup men – primarily Chad Qualls and Antonio Bastardo - have both been unreliable. If Halladay can’t recover, history suggests that the Phils aren’t afraid to chase high-ceiling pitchers like Liriano. Finally, there is one Twins player that could be interesting even if the Phils decide to pack it in this year. Their center fielder Shane Victorino will be a free agent at the end of the year and the Phillies don’t know if they’ll be able to re-sign him. Denard Span might be of interest as he’s under contract through 2015. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins The most likely scenario is that the Phils do exactly what the Twins did last year: stand pat. It’s hard to give up on a year when expectations were so high and it’s easy to blame injuries. Plus, management can trot out the great cliché that they’re trading for three superstars just by getting healthy. Conclusion They’re worth watching, to be sure. The Phils have been very aggressive around the trade deadline in acquiring talent, and they haven’t been afraid to trade away significant prospects for the right pieces. But outside of Morneau as a Howard replacement, there doesn’t look like a great fit here. ~~~ Possible Trade Targets Domonic Brown - OF You may have heard this name a the trade deadline in 2011. Or 2010. Or 2009. And now he’s 24. The Phillies have had several opportunities to trust him with a corner outfield spot, and it seems likely they’re never going to have room for him, even though he’s only had 246 AB in the majors. He hasn’t actually done much in the minors in 2011 or 2012 and he’s had trouble staying health (including being out right now with some strained knee ligaments). But did I mention that he’s just 24, and that two years ago he was posting a combine 980 OPS in AA and AAA? Trevor May – RHP May is a possible front of the rotation starter, topping most Phillies prospect lists. But he isn’t an elite prospect because of his struggles with his control. You might expect those issues (4.6 BB/9) to be further exposed as he climbed up the ladder and sure enough, he’s posting a 4.94 ERA this year at AA, albeit with fewer walks. Short of a big deal, he likely isn’t available, but he’s one of several options – Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America both have multiple pitchers in their Top 5 rankings of Phils prospects. Freddy Galvis - SS Galvis made the Phils roster out of spring training, starting at second base, courtesy of Utley’s injury. His year went downhill from there in a hurry. First, he hit .226. Then he fractured his back. And then he was suspended 50 days for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. His main asset is a terrific glove. It isn’t clear he has enough offense to be a regular starter – his career OBP in the minors is .292 – and the steroid suspension further clouds that issue. But he’s just 22 years old and has been relatively young for most of his levels, so a case can be made that there is still plenty of untapped potential. Please add your thoughts and trade ideas (and other names the Twins could pursue) in the comments below!

Aaron and special guest co-hosts Joe Nelson and Nick Nelson talk about Matt Capps' injury and the closer replacements, Trevor Plouffe's case for the All-Star game, what to do with Francisco Liriano, the buyer versus seller debate, Brian Duensing's move back into the rotation, more Josh Willingham heroics, Byron Buxton's pro debut, and why John Bonnes shouldn't even bother coming back from vacation. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

I could be a Pirates fan. Believe me, I know all that implies. As a middle-aged Twins fan, I've felt Pirates fans' pain, albeit in lesser doses. I can sympathize with the hopelessness and even apathy that sets in after years of mismanagement. Watching the supposedly competitive Bucs yesterday didn't inspire me to join them anytime soon.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If you're wondering what the "traditional" Twins philosophy - pitching, defense and maybe a little hitting - looks like in the NL, look at the Pirates. I'm sure the announcers focus on the pitching and defense, but it's hard to get past just how inept that offense is. But I could be a Pirates fan, just because of PNC Park. I last visited PNC a couple of years ago when we sat with friends in the upper deck. I came away thinking I had found the best new ballpark in the majors, and maybe second to only Wrigley in my heart. That was reinforced last night. Last night we had much, much, MUCH better seats - 2nd row down the first base line just past first base - and they cost us just $34. (That's one of the other perks for being a Pirates fan - the cost for everything is quite a bit lower.) Like I said, they were great seats - actually a little below field level - but I think I might have liked the upper deck seats last time just as much. Why? Cuz this is the view from the upper deck. It helps that Pittsburgh is a beautiful city, which I did not expect before visiting. It is classic big steel, defiantly proud of its heritage, jutting its chin out at our expectations. The ballpark leverages that too, closing the adjacent riveted bridge that leads to downtown to everything but pedestrian traffic and independent vendors. The result is an urban ballpark plaza that also happens to cross the Allegheny River. My friend Bob joked about just how scenic the ballpark was and how the architect must have reacted to seeing the site. "It goes where? And I can turn it anyway I want?" He or she must have felt like they had died and gone to heaven. But give the Pirates some credit - they didn't screw it up, and it would have been easy enough to do. The ballpark works because center field doesn't have any bleachers, allowing the city and river to bleed into the park. I'm sure at some point adding a 10,000 seat tourniquet occurred to the bean counters. Not doing so proved prescient, because the Pirates aren't selling those seats anyway. The park was about half full last night. It felt a little like looking into the Twins future. That's bad news for us payroll trackers, but sure makes for a nice intimate ballpark experience. I enjoy the packed energy that is currently at most Twins home games, but I think I'll also like the camaraderie that comes from a smaller more interested crowd. I sure did last night.

Some spring training moves are bearing fruit. The question is when they will be most ripe? Glen Perkins hasn't been especially effective this year, but he still profiles as possible closer long term, with well over a strikeout per inning. Even better, this spring he signed a deal that keeps his salary team-controlled through 2016 at a level considerably below that of a closer. So how should the Twins play that? On the one hand, they could trade him now to a team that finds a left-handed reliever (with closer potential) especially appealing. Or they could turn him into a closer later the year and (provided he excels and stays healthy) he becomes even more valuable. Or, I suppose, the team could hang onto him in the hope that the next competitive Twins team could still have him around. But that is by far the riskiest of the choices. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The Twins flexibility is enhanced by another spring addition. Jared Burton has been more effective than Perkins (or closer Matt Capps) this year, despite handling earlier innings. He also has quite a bit of history being an effective reliever from before he joined the Twins. Finally, with 28 strikeouts and just 3 walks in 26 innings this year, he also looks like a possible closer. Burton has another year after this one before he turns a free agent, and he just turned 31 years old. If the Twins were to ponder trading away Perkins any time over the next year, they could prepare by putting Burton in the same position that they put Perkins in spring training. Namely, offer him a long-term deal at a setup man's salary which puts him first in line when there is an opening at closer. Or, they could just shop him around at the trade deadline. Or I suppose they could keep him as Perkins insurance. In some ways, the road block here is Capps. With his closer role, he's blocking two guys who are probably going to be more effective. If the Twins can trade him - even if it is for very little - it allows them to increase the value of at least Perkins and put Burton in an heir apparent role, providing incentive for a long-term deal. And if he becomes the closer, and they mine the minors/waiver wire for yet another arm, they can move him.... This is how a non-competitive team can, fairly quickly, add core talent to their system. The team can afford to give relievers a chance to rediscover their stuff. They can afford to invest innings in them, even high leverage innings. And until the core pieces of a competitive team are in place, they can afford to let other competitive teams fight over these developed assets. The question isn't if they should do it. The question is when the fruit should be picked.

It was the end of the 2002 season. Jim Thome was finally a free agent after years of torturing the Twins. (And particularly, torturing Rick Reed. Good lord, did Big Jim take it to Reed. Thome hit more home runs (9) off of Reed than any other pitcher, even though he only had 27 at-bats against him. Think about that. He hit .333 JUST IN HOME RUNS against Rick Reed. Lordy.) Anyway, Thome was a free agent. As a blogger who is asked these sort of things all the time, I must have received the question "Will the Twins sign Jim Thome?" roughly a dozen times per week. Never mind that the Twins had made absolutely zero intimations that they intended to pursue Jim Thome. Or that the Twins had a left-handed DH at the time named David Ortiz. Or that the Twins still had no hint of a stadium. Hell, they had just barely survived contraction. And yet EVERYONE wanted me to tell them the Twins might chase Jim Thome, the biggest free agent on the market. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] It speaks to how Jim Thome always SEEMED like a fit for the Twins, even when there was no practical way in which he was a fit for the Twins. He publicly heaped praise on how the Twins played the game. He hit the snot out of our ballpark. He looked adorable wearing flannel next to a blue ox. He was a perfect fit, except that he was just too damn good. He signed that year with the Phillies for $85 million dollars. It locked him up for six years…during which time he still managed to end another Twins season with a game winning home run in game 163 for the arch-rival White Sox. Of course. But when the contract ended, the 39-year-old was looking to reestablish his career. Spurned by the White Sox, quarantined from the National League, he finally found his way to the Twins. (By the way, well played Bill Smith.) Not only did his career get taken off of life support, it produced a number of memorable moments: Thome passing Harmon Killebrew on the all-time list, his blast off the flagpole on Labor Day, his 600th home run and best of all…. The home run off Matt Thornton that served as the dagger for the White Sox 2010 season. Hell, I would have raised Thome’s $1.6M salary just to hear Hawk Harrelson be rendered that utterly speechless in disgust. Some treasures cannot be bought. In a golden season for the Twins in so many ways, Thome added his own luster. And the next year, even in a season in decline, he served as a reminder of the dignity of the game. He’ll return to the Twin Cities tomorrow with his old/new team the Philadelphia Philles, giving us one more chance to reminisce about our favorite (and most painful) Thome moments. But don’t feel like you have to wait. That’s what the comments are for….

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' youth-led turnaround, Byron Buxton and the power arm-filled draft class, Trevor Plouffe's homer binge, Scott Diamond's ace impression, Chris Parmelee's return from Rochester, Ben Revere's long-term upside, Liam Hendriks' impending re-arrival, the wisdom of re-signing Ryan Doumit, Jason Marquis in pitcher heaven, Brian Dozier's struggles, and the exciting life on Aaron's balcony. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes

Last year in Twins Territory, Denard Span was the hot topic as the trade deadline approached, much to Span’s dismay. This year, we’ve read that the Nationals are still interested in Span. They certainly should be, given their stopgap centerfield solution, Rick Ankiel, is hitting just .221. But they likely aren’t going to be alone. Span plays a premier defensive position competently, but more importantly he gets on base as a leadoff hitter. One can bet a few of the below teams will at least be calling at the trade deadline this year. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers have a pretty fair centerfielder already, though Matt Kemp is out with a hamstring injury for at least a few weeks. What they don’t have is a leadoff hitter who doesn’t induce nausea. That job was speedster Dee Gordon’s to start the year, but he’s posted a .275 OBP, so they have turned it over to Tony Gwynn Jr. while he fills in for Kemp. Whether or not they need Span depends on whether you think Bobby Abreu, who was dropped by the Angels but has a 900+ OPS for the Dodgers in limited time, will turn back into a pumpkin. If Kemp stays out, Span can fill in for him. If Abreu grows old again, Span can play left field while leading off and Abreu comes off the bench. So stay tuned…. Dodgers Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Zach Lee – RHP – 4 stars Nathan Eovaldi – RHP – 3 stars Allen Webster – RHP – 3 stars Baltimore Orioles Like the Dodgers, the Orioles also have a center fielder having an MVP caliber year. But the Orioles also have big problems at their leadoff spot, with a combined OBP of just .253. Most of that can be blamed on Endy Chavez, though Robert Andino (.304 OBP) has done his share of damage, too. Again, the problem becomes finding a place for Span to play, though that doesn't appear to be a problem this year. A spot just opened up in right field where Nick Markakis was just put on the DL due to wrist surgery. There has also been a spot for a month in left field, where Nolan Reimold has been out with a bulging disk in his neck that has required multiple epidurals. Span could fit in with the Orioles long term there as Reimold is now 28 years old and has bounced between the majors and minors a bit in recent years. Orioles Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Dylan Buncy – RHP – 5 stars Manny Machado – SS – 5 starts Jonathan Schoop – INF – 4 stars Cincinnati Reds The Reds lead the NL Cental with Drew Stubbs, a 27-year-old with a .300 OBP as their center fielder. He now has 1500 major league at-bats and a .249 career batting average. And believe it or not, he’s not the big problem. By the way, you’re warned – CAPS heavy sentence coming up. The big problem is the number .214. CUMATIVELY, that is the ON-BASE PERCENTAGE from the Reds LEAD-OFF hitters. It is as if every person they put atop the lineup becomes Drew Butera. Except that isn’t fair to Butera, whose career OBP is .231. I don’t know what to add to that. I’m a little stunned. How can they not get Joey Votto and Jay Bruce a little help? Let’s get to the prospects…. Reds Top Prospects per BaseballProspectus.com Billy Hamilton – SS – 5 stars Devin Mesoraco – C – 5 stars Zach Cozart – SS – 3 stars (Huh. This is the guy who is leading off for the Reds, so let’s go one more...) Robert Stephenson – RHP – 3 stars