John Bonnes

Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade I started making a list of the top 10 things I hate about this trade for today’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast. I’m up to #28. (Kill me. Or better yet, add on in the comments section.) 1. I hate that after waiting out the market so Liriano was the best remaining rental, the Twins traded him after his one terrible start in the last two months and less than 24 hours before a possible redeeming start. 2. I hate that what the Twins got in return is SO much worse than what other rental pitchers brought back. 3. I hate that despite that evidence, people will defend Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan by saying “we don’t know what offers they had.” 4. I hate that neither player received was ranked in the top 10 of White Sox prospects by Baseball America, which relies heavily on what the organization thinks of their own prospects. 5. I hate that since those rankings, neither player has had a particularly strong year. 6. I hate that the Twins traded with an organization whose farm system is weaker than their own ravaged system. 7. I hate that the only way I could think this trade made sense was if the Twins knew Liriano was hurt and hiding an injury. 8. I hate that the Twins didn’t even attempt to negotiate with Liriano. 9. I hate the Twins traded a high-upside player to division rival without knowing if he was willing or maybe desperate to sign a long-term extension. 10. I hate that White Sox GM Kenny Williams first reaction must have been “How soon can I hang up this phone?” 11. I hate that Williams 2nd reaction was likely “Hold it – this is too good. Is there something wrong with Liriano? Is he hurt?” 12. I hate that Williams 3rd reaction was probably “Meh. Even if he is, who cares? All I’m giving up is Escobar and Hernandez!” 13. I hate that the last time we thought a trade was almost this bad was when the Twins traded Capps for Ramos. And even then it wasn’t this unanimous. And the Twins stubbornly kept overpaying and bringing Capps back for two years to justify it. 14. I hate that the last time we had this much complete unanimity on how bad a move by the Twins this is was back when they signed Nick Blackburn to a long-term deal, which also involved loving a low strikeout pitcher way too much. 15. I hate that Hernandez is such a stereo-typical Twins pitcher – low strikeouts, good control. I hate that the Twin still think this is really the way to go. 16. I hate that it makes me wonder if Scott Diamond - another low strikeout/great control pitcher with a lot of initial success - is going to end up like Blackburn/Carlos Silva/ Joe Mays sooner rather than later. 17. I hate that the Twins, rather than walking away with their winnings on guys like this, keep doubling-down until they lose. 18. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that can’t get on base. 19. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that likely won’t make the top 10 prospects in their own organization. 20. I hate that this trade reinforces that the Twins have failed to develop decent middle infielders – even when they trade for them. 21. I hate that this trade makes me wonder if the Twins inability to develop good middle infielders doesn’t have less to do with their farm system and more to do with their philosophy and scouting. 22. I hate the Liriano was my Gleeman and the Geek Pickpointz pick of the week, making it possibly the worst pick in the history of the game. 23. I hate that if this was the best offer, keeping Liriano wasn’t an option. 24. I hate that Ryan felt the need to dump Liriano for this package while simultaneously praising him for his character in the locker room, bringing into question why he didn’t keep him. 25. I hate that the most obvious answer to that question might be fiscal. And that implies thatcut-backs could make 2013 even more painful than last year. 26. I hate that Terry Ryan did exactly the opposite of what he said he was going to do: acquired low-upside players close to the major instead of high-upside players further from the majors. 27. I hate that this makes me doubt Terry Ryan’s leadership of the Twins. 28. I hate that I no longer want the Twins to trade for any more “prospects” at the

Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade I started making a list of the top 10 things I hate about this trade for today’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast. I’m up to #28. (Kill me. Or better yet, add on in the comments section.) 1. I hate that after waiting out the market so Liriano was the best remaining rental, the Twins traded him after his one terrible start in the last two months and less than 24 hours before a possible redeeming start. 2. I hate that what the Twins got in return is SO much worse than what other rental pitchers brought back. 3. I hate that despite that evidence, people will defend Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan by saying “we don’t know what offers they had.” 4. I hate that neither player received was ranked in the top 10 of White Sox prospects by Baseball America, which relies heavily on what the organization thinks of their own prospects. 5. I hate that since those rankings, neither player has had a particularly strong year. 6. I hate that the Twins traded with an organization whose farm system is weaker than their own ravaged system. 7. I hate that the only way I could think this trade made sense was if the Twins knew Liriano was hurt and hiding an injury. 8. I hate that the Twins didn’t even attempt to negotiate with Liriano. 9. I hate the Twins traded a high-upside player to division rival without knowing if he was willing or maybe desperate to sign a long-term extension. 10. I hate that White Sox GM Kenny Williams first reaction must have been “How soon can I hang up this phone?” 11. I hate that Williams 2nd reaction was likely “Hold it – this is too good. Is there something wrong with Liriano? Is he hurt?” 12. I hate that Williams 3rd reaction was probably “Meh. Even if he is, who cares? All I’m giving up is Escobar and Hernandez!” 13. I hate that the last time we thought a trade was almost this bad was when the Twins traded Capps for Ramos. And even then it wasn’t this unanimous. And the Twins stubbornly kept overpaying and bringing Capps back for two years to justify it. 14. I hate that the last time we had this much complete unanimity on how bad a move by the Twins this is was back when they signed Nick Blackburn to a long-term deal, which also involved loving a low strikeout pitcher way too much. 15. I hate that Hernandez is such a stereo-typical Twins pitcher – low strikeouts, good control. I hate that the Twin still think this is really the way to go. 16. I hate that it makes me wonder if Scott Diamond - another low strikeout/great control pitcher with a lot of initial success - is going to end up like Blackburn/Carlos Silva/ Joe Mays sooner rather than later. 17. I hate that the Twins, rather than walking away with their winnings on guys like this, keep doubling-down until they lose. 18. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that can’t get on base. 19. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that likely won’t make the top 10 prospects in their own organization. 20. I hate that this trade reinforces that the Twins have failed to develop decent middle infielders – even when they trade for them. 21. I hate that this trade makes me wonder if the Twins inability to develop good middle infielders doesn’t have less to do with their farm system and more to do with their philosophy and scouting. 22. I hate the Liriano was my Gleeman and the Geek Pickpointz pick of the week, making it possibly the worst pick in the history of the game. 23. I hate that if this was the best offer, keeping Liriano wasn’t an option. 24. I hate that Ryan felt the need to dump Liriano for this package while simultaneously praising him for his character in the locker room, bringing into question why he didn’t keep him. 25. I hate that the most obvious answer to that question might be fiscal. And that implies thatcut-backs could make 2013 even more painful than last year. 26. I hate that Terry Ryan did exactly the opposite of what he said he was going to do: acquired low-upside players close to the major instead of high-upside players further from the majors. 27. I hate that this makes me doubt Terry Ryan’s leadership of the Twins. 28. I hate that I no longer want the Twins to trade for any more “prospects” at the

James Shields. I don't think you mentioned James Shields. That throw-in of the A's at the bottom was interesting. I can see Billy Beane getting aggressive and going for Frankie, especially if he thinks the rest of the market is afraid of him. They might be worth a team profile story.

Two big pitching trades have been made this week and several more have been close. With all that activity, could it be that Terry Ryan has missed his chance to maximize his return on Francisco Liriano? I don’t think so, but I also doubt we’ll see a move soon. Still Lots Of Interest The Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez on Monday and the Pirates traded for Wandy Rodriguez on Tuesday. Both are top notch pitchers that could be viewed as comparable (or better) than Liriano. Furthermore, yesterday Dan Gladden revealed that the Twins had long talks with the Pirates before they walked away and the Pirates worked out a deal with Houston for Rodriguez. It also appears that the Dodgers are in a standoff with the Cubs for Ryan Dempster, a standoff they’re likely to win since Dempster has already vetoed a trade to the Braves. That’s three “buyers” likely gone for Ryan. But it appears that there are still plenty left. Within the past month, the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Braves and Blue Jays have all been rumored to be interested in Liriano. Plus, the Orioles, Nationals, Mets, White Sox and Cardinals have all demonstrated they are interested in adding starting pitching. That is ten teams, albeit with varying level of interest. Still Lots Of Uncertainty But things are still moving slowly because nobody is sure exactly which pitchers are going to be available. Cole Hamels is out because he just signed an extension with Philadelphia. Matt Garza might be out, because “forearm pain” is often the first sign of an elbow ligament tear, so teams want to see him pitch again, and the Cubs say he might not. Rumors have been flying about the Marlins Josh Johnson, but the Marlins now say they would need to be blown away to trade him. On the other hand, Zach Greinke is almost certainly available. He’ll almost certainly be moved to teams before Liriano, because most GMs will try for Greinke first and turn to Liriano as the backup choice. It’s not clear if some other huge names like the Phillies Cliff Lee or the Rays James Shields are available because they aren’t “rental” players, so any trade would require major prospects. The buyers are going to want to explore all these options, looking for the best deal. The Waiting Game So it appears we’re going to need to wait a bit longer. Liriano hasn’t been consistent enough to make anyone overpay for him before others have signed. But it also appears that ultimately, there are going to be more teams looking for top-tier pitchers than there will be top-tier pitchers. If that stays true, it playing the waiting game is still the best hope for maximizing Liriano’s value.

Two big pitching trades have been made this week and several more have been close. With all that activity, could it be that Terry Ryan has missed his chance to maximize his return on Francisco Liriano? I don’t think so, but I also doubt we’ll see a move soon. Still Lots Of Interest The Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez on Monday and the Pirates traded for Wandy Rodriguez on Tuesday. Both are top notch pitchers that could be viewed as comparable (or better) than Liriano. Furthermore, yesterday Dan Gladden revealed that the Twins had long talks with the Pirates before they walked away and the Pirates worked out a deal with Houston for Rodriguez. It also appears that the Dodgers are in a standoff with the Cubs for Ryan Dempster, a standoff they’re likely to win since Dempster has already vetoed a trade to the Braves. That’s three “buyers” likely gone for Ryan. But it appears that there are still plenty left. Within the past month, the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Braves and Blue Jays have all been rumored to be interested in Liriano. Plus, the Orioles, Nationals, Mets, White Sox and Cardinals have all demonstrated they are interested in adding starting pitching. That is ten teams, albeit with varying level of interest. Still Lots Of Uncertainty But things are still moving slowly because nobody is sure exactly which pitchers are going to be available. Cole Hamels is out because he just signed an extension with Philadelphia. Matt Garza might be out, because “forearm pain” is often the first sign of an elbow ligament tear, so teams want to see him pitch again, and the Cubs say he might not. Rumors have been flying about the Marlins Josh Johnson, but the Marlins now say they would need to be blown away to trade him. On the other hand, Zach Greinke is almost certainly available. He’ll almost certainly be moved to teams before Liriano, because most GMs will try for Greinke first and turn to Liriano as the backup choice. It’s not clear if some other huge names like the Phillies Cliff Lee or the Rays James Shields are available because they aren’t “rental” players, so any trade would require major prospects. The buyers are going to want to explore all these options, looking for the best deal. The Waiting Game So it appears we’re going to need to wait a bit longer. Liriano hasn’t been consistent enough to make anyone overpay for him before others have signed. But it also appears that ultimately, there are going to be more teams looking for top-tier pitchers than there will be top-tier pitchers. If that stays true, it playing the waiting game is still the best hope for maximizing Liriano’s value.

I wonder if there is any chance the Twins promote him before the year is finished. I would assume not - it's pretty late in the minors season already.

Good initial blogging efforts Killer. L like that you're bringing some research to these stories and not just opinions. One suggestion I would make would be to change you're formatting up a little. On computer screens, short paragraphs with only a few sentences work pretty well. And then have a full line break between that and the next paragraph. People feel overwhelmed when they don't have enough white space while reading. It also looks like maybe you're writing this someplace else and then cutting and pasting it into the text box? I do the same thing, but make sure you then go and edit it, because I see a lot of times where the words run into each other. That's usually because the "word wrap" or something like it isn't happening in the other program. If you try some other ways, it'll make it easier for you. Finally, one cheating mechanism we often use is "bullet points" which I think the blogs support. Or you can use headers if you're talking about multiple stories. I'm not sure if I would have used that here or not. I might have formatted this something like this: First of all thanks to those who read my first article that I posted yesterday. I got more views then I hoped for. One person even liked it, thanks mom! Well, if it’s allowed on a Twins blog, I have a few thoughts on yesterday’s trades. Tigers-Marlins It looks like the Tigers are going all in for 2012. They traded a top 15 pitching prospect a couple fringe prospects and a sandwich draft pick for next season. In return, they got Anibal Sanchez, an above average pitcher and certainly a need for the Tigers. However, he has a 3.94 ERA in the National league and is coming to the American League. He does have a FIP of 3.41; however that doesn’t count for much in this situation when you consider the defense that is playing behind him. That problem is compounded when you consider a groundball rate of 47.6% and the Tigers infield. On the plus side he has a very good strikeout rate of 8.18 per 9. He should fit in nicely behind Verlander, Fister and Scherzer and gives them another solid option in a playoff game. They also received Omar Infante. Infante is nothing special at the plate he makes enough contact to hit for a decent average but has a very low walk rate and an OBP of .312. He has occasional power and speed, but not difference-making. He is solidly above average defensively at second base with a 5.5UZR. However, compared to what the Tigers had at second base fans are going to be calling him the MVP. Overall the Marlins did very well in this trade getting agood pitching prospect for the future. I know some Tigers fans are down on Turner but keep in mind the kid is only 21 and may have been rushed to the bigs. The Fish also got a bit of a bonus with 2 prospects who could pan out and a sandwich pick which can produce some nice players. For the Tigers Sanchez and Infante probably add 2-4 wins forthe rest of the season. The big impact is on the playoffs; this solidifies the rotation and takes care of the gaping black hole at second base. Do I think that the Tigers gave up too much? Yes, and if this doesn’t go well they could really regret it in the near future. However, if them helps them win the World Series, to quote ESPNs Keith Law “Flags fly forever.” Ichiro To The Yankees The other trade involved a big name and little impact. ........ See what I mean? How that's easier to read?

Two huge trades went through yesterday and both of them impact the Twins to some degree. Yankees Acquire Ichiro Suzuki Yesterday the Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki (and cash) for little more than a lesser prospect and a waiver wire pickup. It had been reported that they had explored trades for both Denard Span and Shane Victorino of the Phillies, so this gives the Twins one less suitor to court. But it doesn’t properly reflect the market. In nearly all respects except name recognition, Denard Span is worth quite a bit more than Ichiro to a major league team. Ichiro is 38, comes with a price tag over $6M for this year, is a free agent at the end of the year, and his OBP is just .288. (For reference, Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s OBP last year was just 10 points lower.) Span is 28, will cost the team $1M, is under contract for two more years (plus a 3rd year team option) and has an OBP of .340. Finally, Ichiro had trade veto rights, so he was only going to go where he WANTED to go. This was a salary dump, and possibly a favor to Ichiro, which is very different than a Span trade would be. But it does mean one less team is interested in Span, taken by a player we didn’t really know is on the market. That doesn’t mean that the market has dried up. As far as lead-off hitters go, there are still plenty of options: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Dodgers could all be labeled “borderline desperate” for a high OBP player. So could the Nationals, who incidentally approached the Twins about Span last year. The more I look at it, the more I believe that some team is going to talk themselves into Span at the deadline. He’s a better fit for more teams than has generally been acknowledged. Tigers Acquire Anibal Sanchez When the Marlins, who had seemingly pushed all their chips into the middle of the table this offseason, announced they were looking to sell off key players, it was bad news for the Twins. The Marlins have plenty to offer teams looking to get better. That includes right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is becoming a free agent at the end of the year and positioned to do even better than Francisco Liriano on the free agent market. He was traded yesterday to the Detroit Tigers along with Omar Infante, a starting second baseman. In return, the Tigers built a package around starting pitcher Jacob Turner, who entered the season as an “A” prospect, though he’s struggled a bit in AAA and the majors this year. They added a couple of “C” prospects too. Meanwhile, there were multiple reports that the Cubs had an agreemenent to trade Ryan Dempster to the Braves for a package that include Randall Delgado, another “A” starting pitching prospect who has struggled a bit this year in the majors. This suggests that right now, eight days before the deadline, aggressive (or risk-adverse) teams are willing to overpay with borderline “A” pitching prospects for an exceptional pitcher. That doesn’t mean the Twins have received that kind of an offer. Dempster was clearly valued higher than Liriano. Sanchez is at least comparable, and certainly has been more consistent. (Also, since the Tigers are in the Twins division it was unlikely they would want to trade the Twins a prospect that will face them for years to come.) There are still a few hands to play before we find out where Liriano ranks in the trade market. Lots of additional names could hit the market - or they could not. The Phillies are negotiating with Cole Hamels. Zach Greinke and Matt Garza both suddenly have injury concerns. Either way, there are still plenty of teams interested in Liriano. But so far, the market seems to be dictating that the market for moving a pitcher like Liriano is strong. We’ll see in the next week whether it gets better or worse.

Two huge trades went through yesterday and both of them impact the Twins to some degree. Yankees Acquire Ichiro Suzuki Yesterday the Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki (and cash) for little more than a lesser prospect and a waiver wire pickup. It had been reported that they had explored trades for both Denard Span and Shane Victorino of the Phillies, so this gives the Twins one less suitor to court. But it doesn’t properly reflect the market. In nearly all respects except name recognition, Denard Span is worth quite a bit more than Ichiro to a major league team. Ichiro is 38, comes with a price tag over $6M for this year, is a free agent at the end of the year, and his OBP is just .288. (For reference, Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s OBP last year was just 10 points lower.) Span is 28, will cost the team $1M, is under contract for two more years (plus a 3rd year team option) and has an OBP of .340. Finally, Ichiro had trade veto rights, so he was only going to go where he WANTED to go. This was a salary dump, and possibly a favor to Ichiro, which is very different than a Span trade would be. But it does mean one less team is interested in Span, taken by a player we didn’t really know is on the market. That doesn’t mean that the market has dried up. As far as lead-off hitters go, there are still plenty of options: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Dodgers could all be labeled “borderline desperate” for a high OBP player. So could the Nationals, who incidentally approached the Twins about Span last year. The more I look at it, the more I believe that some team is going to talk themselves into Span at the deadline. He’s a better fit for more teams than has generally been acknowledged. Tigers Acquire Anibal Sanchez When the Marlins, who had seemingly pushed all their chips into the middle of the table this offseason, announced they were looking to sell off key players, it was bad news for the Twins. The Marlins have plenty to offer teams looking to get better. That includes right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is becoming a free agent at the end of the year and positioned to do even better than Francisco Liriano on the free agent market. He was traded yesterday to the Detroit Tigers along with Omar Infante, a starting second baseman. In return, the Tigers built a package around starting pitcher Jacob Turner, who entered the season as an “A” prospect, though he’s struggled a bit in AAA and the majors this year. They added a couple of “C” prospects too. Meanwhile, there were multiple reports that the Cubs had an agreemenent to trade Ryan Dempster to the Braves for a package that include Randall Delgado, another “A” starting pitching prospect who has struggled a bit this year in the majors. This suggests that right now, eight days before the deadline, aggressive (or risk-adverse) teams are willing to overpay with borderline “A” pitching prospects for an exceptional pitcher. That doesn’t mean the Twins have received that kind of an offer. Dempster was clearly valued higher than Liriano. Sanchez is at least comparable, and certainly has been more consistent. (Also, since the Tigers are in the Twins division it was unlikely they would want to trade the Twins a prospect that will face them for years to come.) There are still a few hands to play before we find out where Liriano ranks in the trade market. Lots of additional names could hit the market - or they could not. The Phillies are negotiating with Cole Hamels. Zach Greinke and Matt Garza both suddenly have injury concerns. Either way, there are still plenty of teams interested in Liriano. But so far, the market seems to be dictating that the market for moving a pitcher like Liriano is strong. We’ll see in the next week whether it gets better or worse.

I'd grade Provus higher, Smalley lower and Kelly a little higher, though I agree that it seems like he would run out of things to say. As for Bremer and Gladden, I'm ok with Bremer and I like Gladden as a color guy. The one thing I like it the he calls it like he sees it. But he struggles with play by play - I often don't know what really happened when listening to him. And I agree with the author that he and Provus lacked chemistry initially. It seems like it's getting better and I hope that's because Gladden is starting to recognize he's not alpha dog there. He shouldn't be. He makes a great complimentary piece, but Provus needs to be the show.

COtwin, For future reference, when asking a question, you'll often get a lot more responses if it is posted on one of the forums, like the Twins Talk forum. John

J-Dog, For future reference, this probably would get a lot more feedback if it was posted in the forum instead of in a blog. John

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

That's a good point. I can see one of those guys - Casilla or Valencia - being thrown in as a sweetener in a deal.

I like this idea, but I'm a little confused as to where you got the prospects that were returned and where you got the "average return" you're talking about. Did you look at other trades in the last decade of similar players? If so, I'd love to see the three or four you found for each player. I'd find that interesting, but then I'm a geek.

One more question - are you sure about that CBA "only a sandwich pick" thing? I thought that the team would also get rewarded a pick immediately after (or before) the team that signed the free agent. I thought it was two picks that the team got.

I can't see them trading Valencia. Better to hold onto him and see if anything happens next year. There is no reason to trade him while his value is down, and there is no reason they have to trade him. It's not like he's a free agent. I also can't see them trading Casilla, just because I don't think anyone give up anything for him. Even a team like Detroit, who is supposedly desperate for a second baseman, can't see Casillla as enough of an upgrade to be worth the move. Bottom line: there are just too many other better options.

Only tangentially related, but can we somehow transform Trevor into "The Proof" as a nickname? The it could be Hammer-Proof.

Perhaps... 6. Emulate Terry Ryan - Put on stoic face. Talk about accountability a lot and about getting better. Reveal nothing. Emphasize that it is a team effort, and not just about you. That seems like a pretty solid path for staying sane at the deadline too - even if you really ARE the one under the gun.