John Bonnes

J-Dog, For future reference, this probably would get a lot more feedback if it was posted in the forum instead of in a blog. John

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

That's a good point. I can see one of those guys - Casilla or Valencia - being thrown in as a sweetener in a deal.

I like this idea, but I'm a little confused as to where you got the prospects that were returned and where you got the "average return" you're talking about. Did you look at other trades in the last decade of similar players? If so, I'd love to see the three or four you found for each player. I'd find that interesting, but then I'm a geek.

One more question - are you sure about that CBA "only a sandwich pick" thing? I thought that the team would also get rewarded a pick immediately after (or before) the team that signed the free agent. I thought it was two picks that the team got.

I can't see them trading Valencia. Better to hold onto him and see if anything happens next year. There is no reason to trade him while his value is down, and there is no reason they have to trade him. It's not like he's a free agent. I also can't see them trading Casilla, just because I don't think anyone give up anything for him. Even a team like Detroit, who is supposedly desperate for a second baseman, can't see Casillla as enough of an upgrade to be worth the move. Bottom line: there are just too many other better options.

Only tangentially related, but can we somehow transform Trevor into "The Proof" as a nickname? The it could be Hammer-Proof.

Perhaps... 6. Emulate Terry Ryan - Put on stoic face. Talk about accountability a lot and about getting better. Reveal nothing. Emphasize that it is a team effort, and not just about you. That seems like a pretty solid path for staying sane at the deadline too - even if you really ARE the one under the gun.

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

The Big Picture The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded…. And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots. There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade. Why They Will Trade With The Twins The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP. As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation. Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year. That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein. Conclusion You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one. Trade Targets Xander Bogaerts – SS It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get. Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching. Matt Barnes – RHP Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches. Anthony Ranaudo – RHP Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on. Henry Owens – LHP He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.

I also like this story Glunn. Thanks. I wondered if we couldn't find some better pitchers, so I looked up the top prospects according to Baseball Prospectus. The have four pitchers in tehir top 9 and EVERY ONE of them is injured right now: three with elbow injuries and one who "feels funny." Wow. And we thought we had it bad.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

The Big Picture The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK. Wha? How? That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league. Why They Will Trade With The Twins For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense. You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad. Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench. So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City. Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off. So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help. Conclusion The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here. Trade Targets Jameson Taillon – RHP He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce. Jeff Locke – LHP Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.) Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name... Kyle McPherson – RHP He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year. Luis Heredia – RHP A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year. Stetson Allie – RHP Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.

How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. According to USAToday, the Minnesota Twins dropped their payroll $18.5M from last year ($112M) to this year ($94M). And while the mantra coming out of Target Field is that “payroll isn’t that important” ask youself: where this team would be with another $18.5M worth of starting pitching? That’s the bad news, but it’s old bad news. The worse (and new) news is that the team is again in last place and attendance is down again. Would that mean further payroll cuts? If it does, there are only so deep they can cut, because barring some trades, a quick-and-dirty analysis shows the Twins are committed to at least a $76M payroll. The back-of-the-napkin details are at the bottom. If the Twins don’t cut payroll at all, that gives them just $18M to put towards acquiring two or three starting pitchers. And if they do? Then you can expect a lot more of what we’ve seen this year: cycling through AAA starting pitchers in the hopes they can find someone who sticks. Because AAA starting pitchers will be all they can afford. I suspect it also means that any fantasies of hanging onto Francisco Liriano. At the very least, it makes it difficult to imagine the Twins offering him a $12.5M one-year contract to make sure the Twins get draft picks as he walks as a free agent. That much liquid payroll can’t be sucked up by just one player where there are so many gaps in the rotation. That is, if there is any available. If the Twins cut payroll again, Twins fans could face the very grim reality of watching a starting rotation that is actually worse that this years squad, which ranks 29th in ERA in the majors. How low can it go? Not a whole lot lower. But low enough. [ATTACH=CONFIG]1506[/ATTACH]

Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.