John Bonnes

Aaron and John start out with talk about Ben Revere's defense in center field, meander through the Minnesota Twins middle infield, rotation and bullpen, argue about Twins revenue projections and finish with mailbag questions and parenting advice. Here are: Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John start out with talk about Ben Revere's defense in center field, meander through the Minnesota Twins middle infield, rotation and bullpen, argue about Twins revenue projections and finish with mailbag questions and parenting advice. Here are: Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

For the Twins, this month is supposed to be about the rookies – giving them chances, evaluating them, taking the losses that inevitably result. [ATTACH=CONFIG]2308[/ATTACH]Someone forgot to tell the veterans. The M&M boys, Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, gave the youngsters a demo yesterday on what September baseball can be. In their heyday, Mauer nearly hitting for the cycle and Morneau’s multi-home run game would’ve given each a chit towards an(other) MVP award. This year, it meant a satisfying 8-7 win over Cleveland in a beautiful, if half-filled, ballpark. The fans at the game deserved everything they got. Not only did they abstain from the Vikings home opener across town, but they stuck around for 3 hours and 30 minutes to watch the ninth-inning, two-out blast by Morneau. And while the weather was gorgeous, there were aspects of the game that were far from it. By now, we should all recognize a sentence like that last one is going to lead to talk of the Twins starting rotation. And it is. Today’s punching bag was Esmerling Vasquez, making his second start since being recalled from Rochester. He lasted only three innings, throwing 68 pitches and giving up five walks before his manager seemingly grew tired of him. Esmerling has now walked 8 in 8.2 IP which matches his reputation before he seemingly found some control in AAA late this year. Whatever he had previously found sure seems lost now. So does he. But the top of the order looked locked in. Trailing 4-0 entering the bottom of the third, Jamey Carroll singled, and Mauer followed with a triple before Justin Morneau hit his first home run. In the fourth inning, the Twins used their speed, stealing three bases en route to taking a 5-4 lead. The Indians responded in the top of the fifth, taking a 6-5 lead, but the Twins rallied again in the bottom of the seventh. Mauer doubled driving Carroll to third base. Morneau was wisely walked, which loaded the bases. Ryan Doumit struck out for the second out, but left-handed hitting Chris Parmelee’s ground ball found it’s way through the right side of the infield, plating two and giving the Twins a 7-6 lead. However, again the Indians responded. Twins reliever Jared Burton hit Brent Lillibridge with a pitch and then watched him round the bases two pitches later on a triple by Jason McDonald. With the help of Brian Duensing, the Twins escaped the inning without giving up the lead run, which led to Morneau’s ninth inning heroics. Morneau’s health struggles, which have defined his last two seasons (and last two offseasons) seem to be behind him for now. Since the All-Star break, he is hitting .321 with a .369 on-base percentage and .512 slugging percentage. That’s an 881 OPS, which exceeds his career mark and falls squarely in the production levels he posted from 2006 through 2010. Welcome back, big guy. The Twins are using September to look ahead to 2013. Morneau’s game today should remind them – and the fans – that he can still be part of that future. He certainly showed he's part of the present.

He was also 27, turning 28, in 1986. He got MVP votes in 1986, 1987 and 1988. Interestingly, he highest OPS was in 1988 - which was the same year that Tommy Herr showed up and converted Gaetti away from his rough and tumble lifestyle. He also had something of a resurgence in the mid 90s that I had forgotten. He even got another MVP vote in 1995. Huh.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2245[/ATTACH]Aaron and John talk about the September callups that don't include Brian Dozier, Denard Span's prompt inclusion on the DL, Joe Mauer waiver wire silliness, why Anthony Slama may be rethinking his career choices, Arizona Fall League participants, Parmelee's outfield play, Las Vegas, Jacqueline Bisset and date night. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Cool post. Do you have any links that talk about the statistics you're quoting? In case someone wants to learn more about FDP?

You are really a talented writer. Thanks for writing this up. I found myself nodding on every point.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2191[/ATTACH]Well, this is just precious. The last time the All-Star game to be held in Minnesota was in 1985. The night of the game, just prior to the national broadcast, Channel 11 (when they were WUSA, not KARE) had a half hour special covering it. It's a half-hour long, so make yourself comfortable if you want to watch it. You won't regret it. Among other gems, it includes.... A lead story about how the Metrodome is a terrible ballpark. Tom Ryther, out of breath and in short shorts, trying to catch flyballs in the outfield. Coverage of the pregame events. I did not remember that Tom Brunansky won the home run derby. Of course, I also didn't remember that Jefferson's Marching Band played in the pregame, which I should probably have known since I likely knew several people in that band. Jeff Passolt and Randy Shaver are assistant sports guys, doing on-site introductions for features. A review of "the last time" Minnesota hosted the All-Star game: 1985. Lots of 80s-tastic hair. Interviews with both Calvin Griffith and also with Carl Pohlad after owning the team for one year. It includes a great quote about how he never anticipates the team being a great financial investment. The main theme in the pregame show? "A Family Gathering" that shows how important family life has been in Minnesota throughout its history. It was put together by Tommy Walker, who "also did the opening ceremonies for the Olympics." Tom Brunansky and Kent Hrbek dressed up as the "Bruise Brothers." All-star memories from ex-Twins like Jim Perry, Harmon Killebrew and Bob Allison. And a musical salute to the Twins and their 1985 All-Stars. It will be interesting to see the corresponding coverage that the 2014 game garnishes now that it includes all the hype the internet can generate it. Let me hear your favorite parts of the video or your ideas of how Twins Daily can add to the absurdity of it all.

How far are the Twins from contention? One side looks at their dismal record and wants a complete makeover. The other looks at the team's players and thinks they’re just a couple of arms away from a pennant race. Which is it? Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin figuring. As of right now, the Twins are 111 runs under .500. Not wins under .500, but runs under .500. That isn’t good. The Indians are the only American League team that’s worse. The three teams who have the most runs over .500 also happen to be the division leaders. The outlier is the Orioles, who are 45 runs under .500 but still have a shot at the wild card. But for the most part, the teams that are around 40 games over .500 have a decent chance at a playoff spot. So how do the Twins, in 2013, get from -110 to +40? Can they? Is that realistic? It ain’t easy, but the Twins are both blessed and cursed by the same trait – they’re starting pitching is truly dreadful. That’s not breaking news, but just HOW awful they are is both stomach-turning and hope-inducing. They’re the worst team in the American League, and it’s not particularly close. The starting rotation’s ERA is currently 5.56. Next worst is almost a full half run better. The AL average is more than a run better. The median team is 1.2 runs better. And the best team, the Devil Rays, is more than two runs better per game. So where’s the hope? It’s in some simple math. The average AL starting rotation pitches about 990 innings, or about 110 full games worth of innings. If the rotation improves to just second worst in the AL, that’s worth 55 runs. A move to mediocrity brings them another 110 to 130 runs. That at least sounds close to contention. It turns out both sides are right. The Twins are dismal. And they’re a few non-terrible arms from contention. So the argument shifts: how tough is it to cobble together mediocre starting pitching? That depends on who you talk to. The Orioles might say it’s not that daunting, considering their rotation improved from dead last in 2011 to 9th this year with nothing more than a couple of cheaper free agent pickups. On the other hand, the Royals haven’t been better than the 10th best team in the AL since 2003, which is also the last time they were contenders. Twins optimists might point to Scott Diamond, a Rule 5 pickup, as an example of how decent starting pitching can come from where one least expects it. Twins pessimists might point to the other ten players who have started atop the mound at some point this season. None have thrown even 100 innings as a starter. None are likely to. If the front office could find pitching talent, wouldn’t they have found some in the 107 games started by those pitchers? I’m not sure I know the answer. But watching the last few weeks of the season and seeing the performances of Liam Hendriks, Sam Deduno and hopefully Esmerling Vasquez could – and probably should – play a part in the overall direction of the franchise this season. So maybe neither side is right, at least not yet.

How far are the Twins from contention? One side looks at their dismal record and wants a complete makeover. The other looks at the team's players and thinks they’re just a couple of arms away from a pennant race. Which is it? Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin figuring. As of right now, the Twins are 111 runs under .500. Not wins under .500, but runs under .500. That isn’t good. The Indians are the only American League team that’s worse. The three teams who have the most runs over .500 also happen to be the division leaders. The outlier is the Orioles, who are 45 runs under .500 but still have a shot at the wild card. But for the most part, the teams that are around 40 games over .500 have a decent chance at a playoff spot. So how do the Twins, in 2013, get from -110 to +40? Can they? Is that realistic? It ain’t easy, but the Twins are both blessed and cursed by the same trait – they’re starting pitching is truly dreadful. That’s not breaking news, but just HOW awful they are is both stomach-turning and hope-inducing. They’re the worst team in the American League, and it’s not particularly close. The starting rotation’s ERA is currently 5.56. Next worst is almost a full half run better. The AL average is more than a run better. The median team is 1.2 runs better. And the best team, the Devil Rays, is more than two runs better per game. So where’s the hope? It’s in some simple math. The average AL starting rotation pitches about 990 innings, or about 110 full games worth of innings. If the rotation improves to just second worst in the AL, that’s worth 55 runs. A move to mediocrity brings them another 110 to 130 runs. That at least sounds close to contention. It turns out both sides are right. The Twins are dismal. And they’re a few non-terrible arms from contention. So the argument shifts: how tough is it to cobble together mediocre starting pitching? That depends on who you talk to. The Orioles might say it’s not that daunting, considering their rotation improved from dead last in 2011 to 9th this year with nothing more than a couple of cheaper free agent pickups. On the other hand, the Royals haven’t been better than the 10th best team in the AL since 2003, which is also the last time they were contenders. Twins optimists might point to Scott Diamond, a Rule 5 pickup, as an example of how decent starting pitching can come from where one least expects it. Twins pessimists might point to the other ten players who have started atop the mound at some point this season. None have thrown even 100 innings as a starter. None are likely to. If the front office could find pitching talent, wouldn’t they have found some in the 107 games started by those pitchers? I’m not sure I know the answer. But watching the last few weeks of the season and seeing the performances of Liam Hendriks, Sam Deduno and hopefully Esmerling Vasquez could – and probably should – play a part in the overall direction of the franchise this season. So maybe neither side is right, at least not yet.

OK, just to add a log to the hot stove.... The primary objection seems to be that the Twins aren't a King Felix away from contention. So what about this... 1. Trade away Morneau for a mediocre starter, maybe even one that isn't especially cheap but not especially expensive either. 2. Trade for Felix. You can argue what prospects it costs, but I gotta think it can be done for some high upside guys. Come the next prospect rankings, I think you're going to have a couple of 5 stars (Sano, Hicks, Buxton) and a couple of 4 stars (Rosario, Arcia, Berrios at least) to offer. Now the rotation looks like Felix, Diamond, Morneau trade guy, and some combination of Gibson, Hendriks, Deduno, De Vries, Vasquez and Blackburn as the fourth and fifth guys. Is that team really far from contention?

I'll say this....I think the Mariners would at least consider that trade. The big problem is that King Felix is only under control for two more years, so the Twins would need to add his $20M salary AND find pitchers for the other three spots in the lineup.

Great photos. Just great. I especially love Nate Roberts mustache. That is inspired. I also love the tidbit about Vargas' home run and hearing about the young (and promising) relievers. Finally, are you sure Saturday's game didn't seem long because of Mr. Horror Pants "Mr. Shuck" jokes?

:-) Nice job. For future reference, feel free to add a link back to your blog at the top of the story telling where this was originally published.

An opposite field home run (that almost looked like a fly ball off the bat). Nice. Thanks for sharing these TCAnelle. I'd love to see ideas on how TwinsDaily can gather, catalog and share picture like this. I'm afraid I don't know enough about organizing pictures to really lead something like that, but I think we would all support it. If you have any ideas, I'd love to hear them.

I wonder exactly what the penalty should be. It needs to be commensurate with the risk/reward factor but also allow the possibility of a mistest. The problem is that the risk/reward for someone like Colon or Cabrera is so crazy. Cabrera was supposedly a perennially gifted underachiever who went from barely getting a job to talking about a guaranteed $80m contract. What possible punishment could make that not worth it? What's interesting about the players union being so upset about it is that one punishment would be the the money suddenly becomes not guaranteed. That opens up players to all kinds of possible abuses and they would REALLY need to trust the system. But what if the testing was that they gave samples and some of those samples were saved for future testing when better tests are available? And that in addition to a one-year suspension that player lost all future guaranteed money if they are ever discovered?