John Bonnes

The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy.

The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business: Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him. One team would get him. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand. But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys. Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone. Zack Greinke Anibal Sanchez Jake Peavy Edwin Jackson Ryan Dempster Hiroki Kuroda Kyle Lohse Brandon McCarthy Ervin Santana Dan Haren Shaun Marcum Joe Blanton Jeremy Guthrie Scott Baker Colby Lewis Joe Saunders Carl Pavano Francisco Liriano Scott Feldman Carlos Villanueva Chris Young Roy Oswalt Kevin Millwood Erik Bedard Bartolo Colon Kevin Correia Derek Lowe Jason Marquis Daisuke Matsuzaka Carlos Zambrano Freddy Garcia Jeff Francis Roberto Hernandez Chien-Ming Wang Aaron Cook Jamie Moyer Jonathan Sanchez Kip Wells Randy Wolf It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels. Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys. The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now. It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy.

Well, I think it would be fire-able to not bring in anyone, just because I think for the most part we know what we have in the guys we saw last year. There is not point in reserving innnings for them. That's doesn't mean I'm opposed to bringing in guys with some risk and upside - PROVIDED there is a future payoff. I think this means having an option year on 2014, or bringing in guys who aren't at 6 years service time. I'd be more willing to try out minor league free agents than sign lower level guys, even if they have upside, to a one-year deal.

One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years. Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year. Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M. Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.” James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span. Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels. Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer. RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.” Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.” Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year. Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. If you’re looking for some trends to take from this, it appears that each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. This is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that don’t, odds are that player is overpaid. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go?

One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place. The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock. Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after. Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years. Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year. Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M. Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.” James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span. Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels. Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer. RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.” Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.” Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year. Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said. If you’re looking for some trends to take from this, it appears that each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them. This is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that don’t, odds are that player is overpaid. We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place. Which way are you going to go?

Congratulations. This isn't the "business plan" method of growing the Twins Daily community, but it'll do. :-) (On second thought, it's quite a bit better.)

Aaron and John record an emergency podcast to talk about the trade sending Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, what it means for Chris Parmelee, how Span went from prospect bust to underrated big leaguer, why letter grades for prospects can lead to arguments, dropping Deolis Guerra from the 40-man roster, adding Jeff Clement for Triple-A depth, and why Hulkamania will never die. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

Aaron and John record an emergency podcast to talk about the trade sending Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, what it means for Chris Parmelee, how Span went from prospect bust to underrated big leaguer, why letter grades for prospects can lead to arguments, dropping Deolis Guerra from the 40-man roster, adding Jeff Clement for Triple-A depth, and why Hulkamania will never die. Here are: the podcasts the rss feed if you want to subscribe and the podcast on iTunes.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2763[/ATTACH]Minnesota Twins fans finally have a mildly good reason to push the panic button. It wasn’t that Scott Baker was leaving the team – without an option year, his value the year after Tommy John isn’t particularly meaningful. It certainly isn’t that (gasp) other free agents starting pitchers are signing elsewhere – especially when only a handful have changed teams and there are an inordinate number of good starting pitchers on the market. And MOST OF ALL it isn’t that the Twins have dared to sign minor leaguers, which is business as usual for this time of year. But if you want to push it, go ahead. Because yesterday, the Atlanta Braves agreed to terms for center fielder BJ Upton. For Twins fans hoping for long-term upgrades to the Twins starting pitching staff, this is the worst news this offseason. The Braves have plenty of young (and affordable) pitching like that, and were in the market for 1) a center fielder and 2) right-handed power. What’s more, they had to be affordable, since the Braves are working on a corporate (inflexible) budget. Both Denard Span AND Josh Willingham had been floated in rumors from the Braves media entities, and it wasn’t out of the question that they could be attempting a blockbuster deal for both. Upton IS both. He’s a centerfielder, who hits right-handed and has hit 51 home runs over the last two years. And they got him for about $14M/year, which is just a couple of million more than Span and Willingham would have cost. Upton was the linchpin of the offseason for the Braves; he was the one player available to fill both needs at a reasonable price without trading away their starting pitching. The Twins and their fans will need to take solace in the cliché of the other broken-hearted: there are lots of other fish in the sea. There are. The Rays will need to replace Upton, the Phillies are actively courting center fielders and the Reds have been mentioned as a possible landing place for months. But the Braves represented the big one that got away. They were the single best option this offseason when trading for major-league-ready, affordable, young, top-half-of-the-rotation starting pitching. If the Braves had missed out on Upton, the Twins and Braves would have made stunningly good fits for each other. Without them interested, the Twins didn’t just lose one name from the “demand” side of the equation, they also lost their best trading partner. But at least Twins fans have found a reason to push the panic button in 3 …. 2 .... 1 ….

1 Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that have signed with a new team. It’s just Scott Baker so far. That’s it. I count five other are already off the market, but all of them re-signed with their old team (or had their option picked up and were traded): Jake Peavy, Hideki Kuroda, Hisahi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. The bad news here is that a lot of those guys are the middle market - a level just below the big names where bargains might have been found. But that might be why they were already targeted and re-signed. 24 Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook that are still available. That doesn’t mean there are 25 of them that are desirable, just available. But that doesn’t include those that we thought would retire or get minor league deals, and it doesn’t include guys who are available via trade, like several of the Rays or Braves arms. I can’t emphasize this enough – the free agent market hasn’t really started yet. It likely won’t for a few more weeks. According to ESPN’s free agent tracker, a total of 12 guys have signed major league deals so far. Last year 106 did. Cool it. 483 Twins minor league signing stories broken by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger in the past month. (Roughly) Is it possible that the greatest culprit for the Twins slow offseason is Bollinger? By continually reporting minor league signings – which were often overlooked in previous years – we are reminded that none of the big moves have been made yet. 29 The age of Jeff Clement, who the Twins signed to minor league deal yesterday. If that name sounds familiar, it is because he was a “B” catching prospect who ranked #33/#62/#42 on Baseball America’s top 100 list from 2006 through 2008. He had 20 home run power, hit left-handed and was “good enough” defensively. Turns out, he wasn’t, or if he was, recurring elbow and knee injuries drove him away from that spot. He’s now a first baseman and designated hitter and hasn’t upped the power (and oddly has struggled against right-handers). That makes a guy a 29-year-old minor leaguer instead of a possible All-Star. There is good news and bad news in this signing for Twins fans, and neither has anything to do with all the studly free agent starting pitchers they didn’t sign: Good news: the Twins are signing recognizable names with a little upside as minor league free agents. They should. A 60+ win team should mean lots of opportunities for minor league veterans to gain some service time and be in The Show. It should be a team that agents target. But it’s good that the Twins are taking advantage of that status. The Twins picked up a couple of useful players that way last year and will likely need to so again this year. Bad news: Clement’s status emphasizes, once again, just how big the difference in value is for a guy who can play catcher and a guy who can’t. Think about that the next time someone tries to convince you that the Twins would be better if Joe Mauer would get out from behind the plate.

1 Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that have signed with a new team. It’s just Scott Baker so far. That’s it. I count five other are already off the market, but all of them re-signed with their old team (or had their option picked up and were traded): Jake Peavy, Hideki Kuroda, Hisahi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. The bad news here is that a lot of those guys are the middle market - a level just below the big names where bargains might have been found. But that might be why they were already targeted and re-signed. 24 Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook that are still available. That doesn’t mean there are 25 of them that are desirable, just available. But that doesn’t include those that we thought would retire or get minor league deals, and it doesn’t include guys who are available via trade, like several of the Rays or Braves arms. I can’t emphasize this enough – the free agent market hasn’t really started yet. It likely won’t for a few more weeks. According to ESPN’s free agent tracker, a total of 12 guys have signed major league deals so far. Last year 106 did. Cool it. 483 Twins minor league signing stories broken by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger in the past month. (Roughly) Is it possible that the greatest culprit for the Twins slow offseason is Bollinger? By continually reporting minor league signings – which were often overlooked in previous years – we are reminded that none of the big moves have been made yet. 29 The age of Jeff Clement, who the Twins signed to minor league deal yesterday. If that name sounds familiar, it is because he was a “B” catching prospect who ranked #33/#62/#42 on Baseball America’s top 100 list from 2006 through 2008. He had 20 home run power, hit left-handed and was “good enough” defensively. Turns out, he wasn’t, or if he was, recurring elbow and knee injuries drove him away from that spot. He’s now a first baseman and designated hitter and hasn’t upped the power (and oddly has struggled against right-handers). That makes a guy a 29-year-old minor leaguer instead of a possible All-Star. There is good news and bad news in this signing for Twins fans, and neither has anything to do with all the studly free agent starting pitchers they didn’t sign: Good news: the Twins are signing recognizable names with a little upside as minor league free agents. They should. A 60+ win team should mean lots of opportunities for minor league veterans to gain some service time and be in The Show. It should be a team that agents target. But it’s good that the Twins are taking advantage of that status. The Twins picked up a couple of useful players that way last year and will likely need to so again this year. Bad news: Clement’s status emphasizes, once again, just how big the difference in value is for a guy who can play catcher and a guy who can’t. Think about that the next time someone tries to convince you that the Twins would be better if Joe Mauer would get out from behind the plate.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' lack of activity compared to last offseason, Denard Span and Josh Willingham trade scenarios, 40-man roster additions, prospect lists and the men who love them, Tsuyoshi Nishioka getting a raise back in Japan, Brett Myers rumors, avoiding Jeremy Guthrie, and the joys of Thanksgiving.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' lack of activity compared to last offseason, Denard Span and Josh Willingham trade scenarios, 40-man roster additions, prospect lists and the men who love them, Tsuyoshi Nishioka getting a raise back in Japan, Brett Myers rumors, avoiding Jeremy Guthrie, and the joys of Thanksgiving.

[video=youtube;DD132ReLx9s] To hear the actual podcast, go to http://gleemanandthegeek.com/ After recording the 68th episode of their "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes are joined by documentary filmmaker Nathan Fisher for a "Cribs"-like tour of Gleemanor.

[video=youtube;DD132ReLx9s] To hear the actual podcast, go to http://gleemanandthegeek.com/ After recording the 68th episode of their "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes are joined by documentary filmmaker Nathan Fisher for a "Cribs"-like tour of Gleemanor.